SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[kenz]

She is having a period on court

4/6 vs 0/8 on break points. On this level, Looks kinda fishy to me

Edit: Now 1/9

[SirtySree]

She is having a period on court

Going to need a semi-miracle to get this one.

[kenz]

Going to need a semi-miracle to get this one.

Break points stats look fishy

[kenz]

Donated $30 to this shitfest

[SirtySree]

bleh donated $100 for the quick loss. most her breaks were one off whereas her opponent had them in a row which makes the breaks more likely. kravchuk last week was 1/15 in one set which rola won going 1/1 on breaks which was the worse ive seen

[SirtySree]

+$2217

[SirtySree]

rufin @5

[SirtySree]

lamasine @3.5

[kenz]

rufin @5

Watching it, fixed game but hard to say what is the fix

Have RUfin to win 2nd @8

[SirtySree]

Watching it, fixed game but hard to say what is the fix

Have RUfin to win 2nd @8

Didn't watch the 1st set and I tend to try avoid following matches too closely once I bet on them to avoid giving myself a headache.

What happened to make you think it's a fix by the way?

[kenz]

Rufin did not care about his shots in the first set and then Cipolla began doing the same

[kenz]

Nedovyesov - Lazov also fixed match, but could not capitalised on that

[SirtySree]

Rufin did not care about his shots in the first set and then Cipolla began doing the same

Well done on hitting the 2nd set @8. Wished I was following it a bit closer so I could've thrown another unit on the 2nd set as well.

[SirtySree]

Lamasine was a bad pick. Went against my usually rule of no going against ITF level players playing in home challengers or ATP. They always seem to lift for these matches and create upsets.

[SirtySree]

=[

Becker @3.25

[SirtySree]

Becker fix? Odds down to $1.5 for no reason and 1-1 in 2nd set. Odds been dipping and dipping despite Becker struggling to even hold in the 1st game of the 2nd set.

[SirtySree]

What the heck is going on in this Becker match? Goes down a a break 3-1 in the 2nd set and is still a fav @1.57.

[SirtySree]

Last post about the match but Becker gets his 1st break points of the match and then holds serve after to get to 3-3. Odds @1.22 on bet365. Definitely a fix and likely to here about it after the match due to the drop in odds.

[kenz]

Last post about the match but Becker gets his 1st break points of the match and then holds serve after to get to 3-3. Odds @1.22 on bet365. Definitely a fix and likely to here about it after the match due to the drop in odds.

Yep, I took him @3 on marathonbet when it was @1.33 in bet365, interesting

[kenz]

bleh donated $100 for the quick loss. most her breaks were one off whereas her opponent had them in a row which makes the breaks more likely. kravchuk last week was 1/15 in one set which rola won going 1/1 on breaks which was the worse ive seen

Kravchuk wasting tons of bps right now too

[gaebiskon]

rufin @5

SS, was Rufin a pre match favorite? Rufin was a dog during the 3rd on serve if I remember correctly.
This was a challenger qualifying match and I just couldn't find the info anywhere.

[SirtySree]

SS, was Rufin a pre match favorite? Rufin was a dog during the 3rd on serve if I remember correctly.
This was a challenger qualifying match and I just couldn't find the info anywhere.

Yep, he was @1.51 roughly depending on the book. Use tennisprediction.com to find pre-match odds for any match including qualifiers, they only don't have some ITF qualifiers but not many books offer those anyways.

Rufin was @1.75 on bet365 start of 3rd set but quickly became the dog as he struggled on serve every game in the set.

[kenz]

I dont like how Becker wasted 4-5 break points in 3rd set on a supposedly fixed match

[SirtySree]

^ who knows

Kulichkova @3.5 2-2 2nd set.

[SirtySree]

Becker fix complete. Guess they just wanted it to look as real as possible with Androic holding to 40 5 games in a row in the 3rd set.

[kenz]

I have Robert @15

Last game he made a comeback from 5-1 Cervantes serving for the match and won in the tiebreak, also PHM throwsso many games serving for the match, first I remember Dİmitrov Rotterdam and Baggy Irving challenger games

[slayer14]

Busta choked here badly and he knows it no excuses

[SirtySree]

hedged on kulichkova bt wouldve won more if she won

goes as a lost on record tho as i dnt complicate it with hedges. got lucky she came back in the 2nd nd then got unlucky in the 3rd lol

[kenz]

Guez was @3.50 after 1st

Very good price considering Guez's history on the contest + indoor record vs opponents' indoor record

[SirtySree]

^ Wasn't online for that match. Don't think I would've done it though since it falls into the same category as the Caruso match I talked about above, plus he upset Gombos earlier this year in the same situation.

+$2142

[SirtySree]

Here's some matches for tomorrow I thought was interesting. Only looked at mens ATP/Challenger as don't have time for all the others.


Burquier @4 against Hernych
- some speculations that Burquier will retire after this tournament
- apparantly struggling financially and not keen to play on the ITF circuit with his drop in ranking
- been playing bad for a while now but i expect him to lift to try make a run in what might be his last tournament

Ignatik @3 vs Sijsling
- fading Sijsling in 1st rounds is always a good bet if he is the fav
- ignatik won last last year in straight sets against him

Nys @2.85 against Mertens
- falls in the category i talked about, ITF player playing in home challenger
- nys won in straightslast yr against mertens

Vaisse @3.25 against Millot
- pretty much exact same things as above. itf playing home challenger and won against millot in straights last yr

Gaio @2.47 against Martin
- again ITF playing home challenger event
- martin is having a bad year and had a terrible loss last match while gaoi coming off a final

[SirtySree]

Katsitadze @4

[SirtySree]

Katsitadze @4

1/1 vs 0/7 break points in the 2nd set =.="

[SirtySree]

Galfi @3.25 down set 1-0 on serve.

[SirtySree]

Ugh didnt end up going with Ugnatik @11 after the 1st set. Lost my last 2 none fav down a set plays so didnt pull the trigger.

+$2267