Dookie 😱
-
Comment -
I think Maurer beats dodig today. What do you think ep?Comment -
Sorry left for lunch. Would not have seen a Dodig straight setter coming.Comment -
Comment -
I dunno. I hate both guys equally. Kavcic always seems to eat people's money.Comment -
Two plays I'd love to lose money on Wednesday...
Stepanek +1.5 Sets @ +125
Kohlschreiber-Zverev Over 20.5 @ -110Comment -
ATP Munich Futures
Fognini +800
Rosol +2000 *0.25 unitComment -
how you think J Souza v P Andujar will go?Comment -
My brain stunk today. Andujar could do some damage if he wants this week. He got a bonus day of rest which would help his quick turnaround. Funny thing is he may play Fognini again this week.Comment -
Not following this tournament, but I saw a stat about F.Lopez at his current price on clay - something like the last 5 matches at this price, he's played 3 setters. Might be worth taking a look at that prop for him against Haase in Estoril.Comment -
Was worth a look until Haase completely folded in the 2nd set after going up 4-2 LoL ... this is why I don't miss daily betting on tennis at the moment. Fukking mental midgets.Comment -
Never underestimate a Dutchman LoL ... found a way to get it to 3 sets and win.Comment -
One play I'd like to lose money on Thursday. Everything else in Munich :meh:
Andujar-Melzer Under 20 @ -117
Comment -
Hopefully good for the Fognini future, have not seen too many who aren't picking Thiem tomorrow. That match likely will be a roller coaster.
Really think it's a do or die 1st day on both those futures since investing. Could see Rosol and Fognini both lose, but think if they win tomorrow that one of them will run deep.Comment -
Fognini usually wins the tournaments he isn't expected to when there is an alright field. Kind of like when he won in Hamburg a few years ago when Federer was in the draw and knocked out a tad earlier. And then won the one before or after it (can't remember which). Good luck if it does hit though.
I fully expect him to stink up one of these clay Masters (likely Madrid, but it would be more ironic if it was Rome because its Fognini) if he does have a good run here.Comment -
Good old Fognini. What a shameless bastard.Comment -
Fognini is probably the most emotionally unstable player in the world...I'd guess even moreso than some of the worst in the WTA. It is beyond ridiculous. He only held once all match against Thiem. lolComment -
I think he is 100% on the take somewhere. One of the best con men in the gameComment -
There's a shocker somewhere tomorrow. If I was going to lose money on Friday, I would roll the dice. I'd just bet one at a time and see if one gets it done.
Melzer +432
Burgos +364
Rosol +647
Comment -
Rosol is proving great value after sucking so much up until I believe clay pretty much this year and didn't do much after winning a title before last years US Open either.
Has the serve to hold his own from his own side as well.Comment -
Spitbsllin here to try to keep my mind sharp even when I am skipping plays.
Estoril plays I would love to lose money on...
Coric +1.5 Sets
Almagro-Gasquet Ends in 3 SetsComment -
Epic choke in progress by Coric. Up 5-1 & set point. GGL about to draw even at 5Comment -
I saw that crap man. I had coric ML. He prob wouldn't have won 3rd set but freaking discouraging to be up 5-2 up 40-15 2nd serve and its unreal. Fuk tennisComment -
Heh. Nice to see my luck would be the same. Two choke jobs.Comment -
Melzer!!!Comment -
Yeah that's a nice hit for anyone who played them one at a time too because there was no need to waste too much extra on the other guys. Looks like I outsmarted myself on futures. Pretty sure I talked about Kohlschreiber a lot in my preview, but I passed him for Fagnini.
Think I will jump back into the fray of abuse for Madrid. Godspeed.Comment -
Need to watch Young Melzer..he was 150-1 to win this tourney...Amazing hedge opp after the first set today if you had him as a future.Comment -
Nobody in their right or wrong mind had Melzer on a future in that tourney
Comment -
Just read about the Murray-Rosol dust-up, I know at least one person appreciates and echoes the sentiment from Andy ... In case you missed it, Rosol bumped Murray during a changeover. Andy promptly came with this ...
"No one likes you on the tour. Everyone hates you."
Comment -
ATP Madrid Preview
Rafael Nadal is the two-time defending champion in Madrid and desperately looking to capture some confidence as we inch closer to the French Open. Rafa is 35-8 in Madrid and has lifted the trophy four times. He is seeded 3rd this week. Istanbul Champion Roger Federer is your top seed this week. Federer's clay title in Istanbul on Sunday was his first on dirt in three years. Madrid has been good to him with a 35-7 mark all-time and three titles, the last of which came in 2012. Andy Murray is your 2nd seed this week. The Scot is waiting out a rain delay in Munich on Monday in the title match there against Phillipp Kohlschreiber. It remains to be seen how that kink in the schedule will effect him this week. He is 17-7 at Madrid winning once in 2008. This is not traditionally one of his stronger events though. Round out the top four seeds is Kei Nishikori who comes in with good form after defending his Barcelona Championship a few weeks ago. He is relatively new to Madrid with an 8-3 record, but it seems to suit him as he made the Final last year.
Planting The Seeds
As with any tournament this size, there are a few early upsets. In 2014, four seeds dropped their first match in Madrid. In 2013, there were three. In 2012 there were just two seeds who were ousted in their first matches. 2011 though was a horror show with eight seeds seeing an early exit. Interestingly, the year with the fewest upsets recently (2012) was the controversial blue clay year in Madrid. In any case, let's plant those seeds who could be booking early travel plans this week.
#5 Milos Raonic
Raonic will be in for a tough opener with Juan Monaco having advanced out of the first round after whipping Almagro 6-3, 6-2. That may not bode well for Raonic who had to withdraw from Monte Carlo a couple weeks back with a foot injury. Milos could have a tough time focusing on his play as he tests the health of that foot which is probably the more important win for him this week. He'll be looking to find out his mobility level. If it's good, then he could have a bit too much for Monaco. If not, then Monaco certainly knows he can beat the Canadian. He won a wonderful five set battle with him back in the 2012 French Open. They are obviously both on different career arcs now, but it's a big match for both. Keep in mind Raonic is only 3-4 here.
#6 Tomas Berdych
Generally, Berdych would not be on this list in Madrid. Berdych has made the quarters, Finals and semfinals his last three trips to this tournament. He's got a potentially stumbling point though in his 1st match. He gets the winner of Gasquet vs. Karlovic. Gasquet is in good form after winning the Estoril title. While Berdych has handled him easily on hard courts in their last two meetings, Gasquet owns a 2-1 advantage against the Czech on clay. If Gasquet survives Ivo, he's got a legit shot. This could be one of those rare times where someone looks forward to playing Karlovic's serve instead. DEFCON 3.
#8 Stan Wawrinka
The Swiss has to be placed on this list simply because his form since the Australian Open dictates it. A lot will also be made of the shambles his personal life is in with him announcing a permanent separation from his wife in the past few weeks. More importantly though is his play and a level that has not been consistent at all in the past two months. Wawrinka is 12-8 here and has made a Final (2013), but he is just 3-4 since winning the Rotterdam title in February. A 1st up against Janowicz or Sousa is in store. The good news for Stan is that neither Sousa or Janowicz is in good form, but the mercurial Pole could be a handful against a less than A-level Wawrinka. DEFCON 4.
#9 Marin Cilic
Cilic has a tricky opener against Jiri Vesely. Vesely definitely looked worse or the wear after losing the Bucharest Title match and turning around quickly to Munich. Kohlschreiber flattened him 6-2, 6-1. The extra rest could help here though as he will face Cilic who was unceremoniously bounced from his 1st up in Barcelona last time by Burgos. He is still working his way back to full fitness and health with just five matches to his credit in 2015. That makes him prone early on. He's just 9-7 all-time at Madrid and has never advanced past the 3rd round. Vesely has been up and down this year, so there's not telling exactly who Cilic will see on the other side of the net. Still, this won't be easy. DEFCON 3.
#12 Jo-Wilifried Tsonga
Tsonga did beat his 1st round Mardid opponent, Lukas Rosol, in straight sets last time they met on dirt in September 2014 in Davis Cup play. That was then, this is now. And now, Tsonga comes into Madrid with a modest 3-3 mark on the year as he works his way into form and shape after missing the first three and a half months with an arm injury. He looked especially off in Barcelona as he lost to Granollers in straight sets. Tsonga is 8-7 in Madrid and he has only lost his 1st-up match once back in 2010. Still, Rosol has some decent form after making the quarters in Munich. Rosol's lone match here was last year, a three set loss to Jeremy Chardy. Ordinarily, I would think Tsonga should cruise, but these are not ordinary times for the Frenchman. I'd put this one on DEFCON 5 as pretty unlikely, but still a small possibility.
Quick Draw McGraw
It's been a minute since Roger Federer was the top seed in a larger tournament like this, but that's what we get this week with Djokovic choosing to rest up. Federer's Quarter features Berdych, Isner and Tsonga as the other seeds. Fed is in good form after the Istanbul title this past week, so he should expect to run deep here. Berdych or a rejuventated Gasquet would be his main threat in the bottom of this quarter. I like Roger's chances though at making the semis. Keep an eye on unseeded American Jack Sock. Sock won the Houston title early in April. I don't know that the draw is particularly nice to him with Andujar up first and then Tsonga or Rosol - but you'll get his best effort and it might be good enough for some upsets.
Nadal is the 3rd seed and his quarter looks good for him early to possibly restore some confidence. He gets Alejandro Gonzalez or Steve Johnson first. He has already been done a favor with 15th seeded Kevin Anderson being ousted by Bolelli on Sunday. That means Rafa will not face a seed until the quarters at the earliest. There is a lot of potential in the bottom half of the quarter, but a lot of question marks too. Wawrinka, Dimitrov and Fognini loom in that part of the draw. Dimitrov has shown some life the last two tournaments, but still looks short on confidence with poor losses to Cuevas in Istanbul and Monfils in Monte Carlo. This should be Rafa's to take unless one of the aforementioned guys gets his head on straight for several days in a row.
The Murray Quarter has plenty of intrigue. Murray is still waiting to finish the Munich Title match on Tuesday, so he will be in for a bit of a quick turnaround that he would not normally see in this draw. Astonishingly, he could face fellow Munich title match contender Kohlschreiber in his 1st match. Kohlschreiber (if he doesn't skip Madrid) has an even shorter turnaround to face qualifier Alejandro Falla. On top of the quarter is 5th seeded Raonic. I outlined his health concerns and tough match-up. I don't expect him to be around for more than a couple matches.
That would leave seeds Felciiano Lopez and Gael Monfils as the others to watch here. Monfils has turned it up with back-to-back semifinals in Monte Carlo & Bucharest. He skipped Munich last week to rest his sore knee, but if he's fit - and who ever truly knows - this is potentially a quarter he can steal. Lopez seems boom or bust. Last year in Madrid, it was boom as he made the quarters but he's been a 1st-up bust the two trips before that. An opener against Becker should help it be more boom and if Raonic's foot isn't quite there, the Spaniard could put some thrills into the crowd this week. I'm looking for an upset winner of this semifinal spot. I'd favor a healthy Monfils. I just think Murray won't replicate his form from Munich this week.
The final quarter is headlined by 4th seeded Kei Nishikori and surprise, surprise there is 7th seeded David Ferrer on top. If seeds hold, they would be meeting for the third time this year and 7th in the last two years. That includes last year's Madrid semis where Nishikori won in three. Nishikori gets the leftovers from Goffin-Gulbis 1st up and I fancy him to move on without too much trouble there. Ferrer faces Cuevas or Ramos. I'd favor Ramos with Cuevas likely a bit down trodden after his Istanbul loss to Federer Sunday, not to mention the travel he'll be contending with. 14th seed Roberto Bautista-Agut would loom as the likely vulture if either of those guys can't handle the draw here. RBA made the semis last year and would be seeded to play Nishikori in the quarters. Ferrer could see Cilic or one of his fellow Spaniards Verdasco or Garcia-Lopez in the quarters. Not an easy draw, but it's one that Ferrer should feel okay with. I really like Nishikori here and in the bottom of the draw in general.
OUTLOOK & FUTURES
Without Novak Djokovic this week, there is a sense of wonder in the air as everyone will feel like it could be their time to win a Masters title. Nadal obviously is the player in need of this the most. I would be stunned if he did not make at least the semis this week. His confidence may be low, but the draw is too kind for him to not have that chance. For me, I think this could come down to Nishikori against Federer or Nadal. I would also keep a sharp eye on that Berdych clash with whomever he faces to open. If Berdych survives that, then he could certainly challenge in the top half of the draw. My darkhorse is Monfils if fit. I'm hopefully the Munich snub was just smart scheduling on his part to keep that knee fresh. We'll know soon enough.
Nishikori +400
I want to see what happens in Munich on Monday. My feeling is that regardless of outcome/travel/schedule, that I think the Murray Quarter is going to see some upsets. I may take a stab at a longer shot down there or take a shot up top on Federer or Berdych.
Comment -
I like the abuse.
5.4.15 ATP Madrid
Vanni +1.5 Sets @ -120
Giraldo +120
Vesely +150
Comment -
Solid write up as usual my man.Comment -
You mean Girado -120 I believeComment
