EP36's Racquet Abuse

[EaglesPhan36]

2015 Profit Margin: -3.90
2015 Futures: +5.45
Whopping profit of .32 today, but hey after the way the last three tourneys have been - that's improvement on the abuse level.

[EaglesPhan36]

4.23.15 ATP Barcelona
Klizan-Burgos Over 2.5 Sets @ +140
F.Lopez @ +110

[EaglesPhan36]

Emptying the chamber & my wallet apparently.

Add...
ATP Barcelona: Paire @ +170

[EaglesPhan36]

Perhaps it's the court. Every play today on court 1. No need to be shy, might as well sink to the bottom without any bullets. Was going to pass since everything else I like turns to Shit or I pass & it wins but I feel a need to cleanse myself. May just go all futures for quite a while. The day to day + me are not on good terms. Worst slump I can recall and it's got no end in sight. I'd be on the other side of this if you're smart.

ATP Barcelona Dubs: Lopez-Mirnyi @ -135

[EaglesPhan36]

With no Nadal now, this looks like a great shot for Ferrer on the bottom of the draw. 11-3 v. Kohlschreiber and has not lost to him since 2008. 8-0 against Fognini. 3-0 v. Andujar. Has not lost a set to either of those last two guys ever. My play here basically is hoping Ferrer makes it to the Final, so you've got +225 against Nishikori, Robredo or Bautista-Agut with Nishikori of course being the most likely according to the odds. Nishikori was around -240 at the Aussie Open when they met and just under -200 when they played in Acapulco. On clay, I would expect that price to be much lower especially depending on how they both look if they make the Final. Ferrer would obviously be a favorite against either RBA or Robredo. Probably should stick more to Futures with my day to day picks sucking major kawk the last month. Futures have always been more pleasant to me, just have to be a patient asshole which is rough for any gambler.

Add...
ATP Barcelona Future: Ferrer @ +225

[SirtySree]

Ferrer having ball toss issues on his serve at the moment though. Struggled to hold serve majority of the time against both Montanes and Ymer. Would think against one of those better opponents listed above, if he continues to struggle with it he could get beaten.

Pretty decent price though but I think it has taken into account his serving problems a bit already.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not overly worried about that. Ferrer has always been an iffy serving for me. Some tourneys obviously he's a bit more stout, but clay for the most part I expect everyone to struggle more on-serve. I just really dig the potential match-ups he's got on this side of the draw and did not realize how much he dominated Fognini and Andujar. I actually think Kohlschreiber might be the toughest match he has until a Final if he gets there. Kohlschreiber has the best serve of anyone left on his side of the draw.

[Jeff_Black]

I like Ferrer to win outright too, might throw a few units on it as well. Asking Kei to defend a clay title is going to be a bit ask with Bautista-Agut and Robredo in his half. And then clay court specialists in the other half.
Ferrer's draw is a good spot with every player there being made his b**tch so it's a pretty good spot unless he has a shocker.
As for yesterdays match I think Ymer like against Kyrgios got off to a slow start and then took some time to find his game...When it did though, sheesh! Same thing happened against Ferrer I think

[EaglesPhan36]

If I was going to lose money on Friday, it would be on Kohlschreiber +5

[Jeff_Black]

He's (PK) hitting some great shots, but thoroughly being outplayed from the back. I'm just amazed he's played incredibly dumb tennis when he's broken Ferrer both times in this second set. I think he might squeeze out the line if he doesn't fold mentally after being broken back again, one would think.
Quite the opposite of Ferrer who has been able to get shots back in when on the run and defensive doing a great job covering the court.
Think its a bit of a mental battle for Pk, has the tools

[EaglesPhan36]

The other play I would love to lose $ on today is Andujar +140

[beefcake]

Be glad you did not bet on Rosol..Goddammitt..

[EaglesPhan36]

I think I found my new style, bets I want to lose $ on = #winning
😄

[EaglesPhan36]

I would love to lose money on Klizan +1.5 Sets on Saturday @ +130

[EaglesPhan36]

So much for Ferrer. Can't imagine Nishikori won't win this again now. Good showing from Andujar this week.

[EaglesPhan36]

ATP Munich
The BMW Open is one of three stops on the ATP tour this week and it marks the return of newlywed Andy Murray. Murray heads into the tournament as the top seed after taking a break from tennis the last few weeks to celebrate his marriage. This is Murray's first trip ever to Munich. Rounding out the top four seeds behind Murray are Gael Monfils, Roberto Bautista-Agut and David Goffin. One of the hottest players on-tour in recent weeks, Martin Klizan, is the defending Champion, but he has withdrawn from this week's tournament due to injury. Two-time Munich Champion Phillipp Kohlschreiber will also be in action as the 5th seed. He won the title in 2007 and 2012. The other seeds this week are Bernard Tomic at #6 and Fabio Fognini at #8. Amongst the seeds, Kohlschreiber is the most experienced at this tournament with 28 matches and a 20-8 mark.

As with many of these 250 level tournaments, they can take on a very local flavor. There are five Germans in the main draw and three more contending for a spot through qualifications. Germans have done a solid job using home soil to their benefit with nine of the last 16 semifinalists being German. They are not always seeds either, so let's take a look at this week's German contingent and what to expect.

5th Seed: Phillipp Kohlschreiber
As outlined earlier, Kohlschreiber has plenty of experience here and Finals trips in two of the last three years here. Last year though, he was taken out in his 1st match by Denis Istomin. He'll need to be on high alert early again as he faces an in-form Jiri Vesely coming off a runner-up performance in Bucharest last week. Kohlschreiber is in a loaded quarter with fellow Germans Benjamin Becker & Alex Zverev along with 4th seeded David Goffin. If he makes another semifinal here, it will be well earned. Despite the tough draw, I do like him in this spot as he's been playing decently since the switch back to clay.

Unseeded Benjamin Becker & Unseeded Alexander Zverev
The German contingent will shrink by one in the opening round with these two battling each other. Neither has been doing much in limited matches on clay in recent tournaments. Zverev has the talent edge, but has not exactly used that to his advantage in losing in qualis in Houston and a the Challenger level in Sarasota the last couple weeks. It should be noted his best result on dirt came in Hamburg last Summer and he genuinely seems more at home in his home country. Becker is 15-40 on clay, so this obviously is out of his comfort zone. He is 2-3 all-time in Munich, but hasn't played here since 2010. This should be an excellent spot for Zverev to score a main draw win.

Unseeded Jan-Lennard Struff
Struff is stuck in Murray's quarter and would potentially play the top seed in the 2nd round if he can survive an opening round clash with a qualifier. Struff hasn't been able to get on track this year and has gone 0-3 on clay this year. He should have motivation though with semifinal points to defend after a surprising run last year. It will be difficult for him to achieve that with Murray in his way, although he could benefit from some rust from the top seed. That is assuming his 1st round opponent isn't too tough to handle. That will be determined on Monday. Check the draw, but it looks like Struff might be in for a short stay this week.

Wild Card Florian Mayer
The vet has struggled with some injuries, but seems healthy over the past two tournaments. He is 6-5 all-time in Munich and has made the quarters in 2013 and the Final in 2011. He will face Rosol to open. Rosol is no pushover on this surface. If Mayer can get by Rosol, he's got a draw that could make him an intriguing candidate as the surprise German semifinalist. He is in Murray's quarter, but in a 250, plenty of upsets happen and that could be one to watch.

Quick Draw McGraw
A quick look at this week's draw, quarter-by-quarter.

The Murray Quarter provides a lot of opportunity. It could be for Andy Murray. it could be for a non-seed like Struff or Mayer. Murray doesn't often get respect as a good clay court player, but his results are good with a career win percentage around 60. Interestingly, more of his success comes at the French Open, while at other clay court tournaments he usually does not run as deep. This could be a week where he's happy to get some work in on clay with bigger tournaments to come. I look at that Mayer-Rosol winner in the opening round as the one to watch in this quarter. They could easily get hot and work through to the semis.

The Bautista-Agut Quarter looks a bit more straight-forward with RBA seeded at the top and 6th seed, Bernard Tomic, on bottom. That would seem to be a good draw for RBA, but these are the tournaments with the surprises. He would open against Dustov or a qualifier. Seeds do lose their first-up matches in Munich, about two per tournament on-average the last few years. Qualifiers and wild cards have had some especially good luck being the players to oust those seeds. This could be one of those spots witb RBA perhaps content with a nice run last week on home soil in Barcelona. Tomic may not be immune either with a motivated Janko Tipsarevic to oppose him to open. Troicki faces Burgos in the other 1st rounder in this quarter. I think this one is going to get blown up and I look at a steadily improving Tipsarevic as a potential breakout this week. Troicki or Burgos could also be sneaky here.

The Monfils Quarter is going to be fun to monitor just because there is so much talent, but so much inconsistent talent. Monfils leads the charge and will face Souza or Barcelona runner-up Pablo Andujar. It's a perfect set-up for Monfils to make a run as he likely will get a depleted or uncaring Andujar if he makes it that far. Up top, it's the mercurial Fabio Fognini as the 9th seed. Fognini surprised me in Barcelona, beating Nadal, but then unsurprisingly showing no fight against Andujar the next round in losing 6-1, 6-1. Which Fabio shows up this week? Why not ask me for the winning lotto numbers, that is easier to predict. He did make the FInal here last year and these smaller tournaments often seem more fun for him. If he gets by a qualifier in the opener, he likely faces Thiem who will battle Vasek Pospisil in the opener. Big surface advantage to Thiem even if his form is not great since switching back to dirt. Give Monfils the slightest edge here with an easier draw, but Fognini could be right in the mix if he cares.

The Goffin Quarter could easily come down to Goffin or Kohlschreiber, the two seeds here. Goffin has lacked any momentum in 2015 with back-to-back wins registered only in Chennai and Miami. On dirt, his speed and court coverage could help change that. His first match against Bolelli or a qualifier should give him a chance to start well. Kohlschreiber as mentioned prior will have to beat a fellow-German to work deep in this quarter if he can get past Vesely to open. Goffin owns two wins over Kohlschreiber, including one on clay last year in Kitzbuhel. I still like Kohlschreiber though in this spot.

FUTURES OUTLOOK
As with every 250, expect the unexpected. Top seeds just rarely win these events, so I really don't expect Andy Murray to be in the Championship mix. Monfils seems to be steady since returning from injury with a semifinal in Monte Carlo and a decent QF showing in Bucharest last week, losing to eventual Champion Garcia-Lopez. He seems close to figuring it out and this week could be that time. I think the Champion comes out of the bottom of this draw with Monfils my pick and someone like Kohlschreiber or Goffin a very real shot as well.

Monfils +550
Kohlschreiber +1400
F.Mayer +4000

Gonna sit on these for another day and think since none start play till Tuesday.

[fitguy67]

look forward to your final bets on the outright-winner...

my approach that's been working quite well for the last several months in the similar-format golf & nascar markets is to dutch everything into one sensibly-sized bet with a nice same-payout for whichever horse comes in...and then forget it...just treat it like another bet...that's what it is, after all--apart from the longer time frame...

this prevents me from shooting myself in the foot lowering the payout (which, after all, defeats the purpose/attractiveness on such a ticket in the first place, doesn't it?) on an eventual winner with a hedge i didn't need...if it doesn't win, oh well, just 'nother bet now wasn't it (with a bigger payout than normal...thus a correspondingly lower expectation of cashing...hence the appropriateness of the "oh well" laissez-faire stance)

the result: higher volatility of course...but overall mathematically at least as good in the expected effect on the bankroll...and keeps Murphy's Law (aka. ) out of the picture by removing the "should i or shouldn't i...and if so how much" hedge decision by deciding beforehand to replace the anguish with stoicism

[EaglesPhan36]

Monfils is out. Dare I say Fognini at +800 now in the bottom half is tempting. Goffin and Kohlshreiber are both +1200. Going to think on this for a little bit tonight. Murray just +160, but I really don't expect him to win, so I think this is going to be a great week to nail a big price.

[Hardcoar]

I haven't looked at the draw. In my opinion Fognini and Kohlschreiber are both good. Fognini is probably the better value at your given odds, disregarding the draw...

[Hardcoar]

I also forgot RBA. +1400++++ should be golden!

[EaglesPhan36]

Gut feeling on RBA, maybe I am RBA-biased since I seem to think less of him than others, but I don't think he's going to show well this week. Thinking Madrid next week is a higher priority with some big points to defend. I only seem him at +600 BTW. Those odds aren't so generous although if you believe in him, the draw is more simplistic than the longer shots down bottom.

[Hardcoar]

I was expecting him to be @10 or more, to be honest. He's not reliable enough to be that ridiculously short.

[EaglesPhan36]

That I do agree with you on.

[beefcake]

Bet the farm on Brown at 50-1...Use the winnings to fly to Tahiti

[EaglesPhan36]

Plays I would love to lose money on Tuesday ...
M.Zverev +170
Tipsarevic +125
D.Brown +1.5 Sets @ -135

[lucasdawg]

think tomic will be too much for tips
like zverev and over

[EaglesPhan36]

If they play tomorrow, going to be cold and breezy.

[EaglesPhan36]

Not paying a whole lot of attention to the other tourneys, but the one line that sticks out as a public fade is taking Kavcic over Schwartzman. I see some people saying how can this line be? That's where you usually like taking the opposite stance.

If I was gonna lose money in Turkey on something besides a dirty futbol match, Kavcic +106 would be fun to lose on.

[fitguy67]

EP, you hit any futures yet for the current batch of tourneys?

Would be a shame to let your new fascination with enjoying hypothetical losses on a match-by-match basis interfere with your trying to actually make money with those fat plus-number slow-burn plays you're so good at.

[beefcake]

Plays I would love to lose money on Tuesday ...
M.Zverev +170
Tipsarevic +125
D.Brown +1.5 Sets @ -135

Lord help you with that Stiff.

[EaglesPhan36]

Eh beef since I gave up day to day plays for a while those are just tracking how terrible my brain is or to see if it's working again. Seeing if I can right that ship before investing on those again.

Waiting a day on Munich futures. Wanted to see how the courts play with the cold wet weather. Willing to lose a tad on price maybe to see that

[EaglesPhan36]

Really poor effort by Mayer. Glad I did not waste money on that fool.

[Vinnie Paz]

Lord help you with that Stiff.

His hometown doe!!

[EaglesPhan36]

Nice to see Mr.T with a win over a decent player

[Vinnie Paz]

Wow doodoo, smfh