EP36's Racquet Abuse

[EaglesPhan36]

5.14.15 ATP Rome
Simon-Thiem Over 22 @ -105
L.Mayer @ +166
Chardy +1.5 Sets @ +180

I petitioned the Universe to be allowed to play & win my one allotted Chardy match per year with this one. Hopefully I filled out the form correctly.

[Conqueror]

EP,
Any take on the ATP Challenger games in Uzbekistan?

[EaglesPhan36]

Not following sorry.

[Conqueror]

Not following sorry.

Tnx

[fitguy67]

Chardy +1.5 Sets @ +180

I petitioned the Universe to be allowed to play & win my one allotted Chardy match per year with this one. Hopefully I filled out the form correctly.

if you're only authorized to ask the universe, via Mr. Chardy, to do one thing for you during this revolution about the sun...you might as well make it one of those Oprah-Network type "dare to dream big" ones

Jeremy has managed to win at least a set in exactly 2 out of the 6 matches between them (none of them on this surface) for a 33.33% rate, corresponding to an implied break-even price of +200..the +166 price you've booked the ticket at implies/requires that Chardy wins a set 37.6% of the time

so for this ticket to cash you need the frenchman to over-perform his historical set-winning rate against murray...

i'm sure you have your reasons for expecting one of the good set-winning meetings tomorrow, the true probability of which clearly involves much more than simply looking at the tiny h2h sample size as i did above

anyhow, whatever the math and betting theory may say...an official Chardy bet from EP comes around so infrequently, that i tailed just to say that i participated in the event!

_____________
good luck to us...and most importantly, good luck to Jeremy (if he could JUST give a little more of an effort tomorrow at those crucial times in the match than he characteristically does...hmmm, if tomorrow he got so involved in the tennis that he totally forgot his nationality till the match was over...)...now that'd be an edge worth betting on

[EaglesPhan36]

Well I guess I didn't fill out the form correctly. Back to black listing Chardy and shaming myself with a donkey punch for thinking I should even have tried that.

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably saved what would have been a painful loss if Simon didn't retire. TB 1st set, but he was obviously compromised physically.

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...ATP Rome
Kyrgios-Sock @ +160

[DR225]

wtf Sock is cheating on Pospisil?!?

gl man.

[EaglesPhan36]

Pospisil is hurt otherwise they'd be paired here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Donation day for me. Yippee.

[EaglesPhan36]

That turned quick. Super breaker time.
😨

[EaglesPhan36]

Well that helped, only down 0.20 units.

Still wrestling on futures investment or not. Will decide tonight.

[EaglesPhan36]

2015 Profit Margin: -2.01
2015 Futures: +3.20

[EaglesPhan36]

5.14.15 ATP Rome
Federer-Anderson Over 21 @ -117
Isner +1.5 Sets @ +170
Cuevas-Marrero @ -115
Thiem +200/Fognini +205*

*Really believe either Thiem or Fognini wins straight up. They play on the same court. If Thiem wins, I will not bet Fognini. If Thiem loses, will go with Fognini.

[Chaz22]

Why Isner +1.5 sets? Does this clay suit him better than any other?

I support the idea on Thiem/Fognini. Probably will follow this...

[EaglesPhan36]

With how he has been serving & Rafa inconsistent, thought it was worth a shot. Obviously did not work out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ugh. Looks like the Fognini train will have to leave the station. Pull out you rosary

[EaglesPhan36]

Probably overdue for a rape job this week. Today might be it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yep. Anderson sucks in one service game each set and that's over. Racquet abuse time.

[EaglesPhan36]

I owe Mr.Federer a cocktail. Tremendous choke from up 5-2 to 5-5 and at least a push!

[EaglesPhan36]

Knew I'd regret Fognini. Always do. Have to add him to the blacklist. Can't ever get it right with him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...ATP Rome
Troicki +1.5 Sets @ +205

[EaglesPhan36]

Mm -1.0 on the day. Guess good considering it looked much worse.

[EaglesPhan36]

2015 Profit Margin: -3.01
2015 Futures: +3.20

[EaglesPhan36]

5.15.15 ATP Rome
Nishikori +1.5 Sets @ +110
Goffin +1.5 Sets @ +115

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...ATP Rome
Cuevas-Marrero @ +105

[EaglesPhan36]

So far I'd have to say maybe Djokovic was just dicking around the last couple of rounds. Not that Kei has played especially solid to match, but Djokovic looks to be in terminator mode today unless he has one of those weird hiccups he had in the previous two matches it looks like a straight setter.

[tsimmns]

Joka was just working on stuff while playing those last two powder puffs. No way he should ever lose a set to Almagro or Bellucci

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't doubt players do that all the time, but I also think he was struggling at-times too. He was genuinely having trouble with Bellucci for a while. Bellucci's aggressiveness I think was taking him off a little.

Almagro I thought actually played better after the 1st set. He played like total ass in the 1st. It's not that Djokovic necessarily played poorly in either, but I think we just expect him to be able to break lesser players down more quickly.

[therealdealau]

BOOM NISHI

[EaglesPhan36]

Noticed that Djokovic's problems this week seem to center around how aggressive his opponents are - when Bellucci pushed him, Bellucci was going for big shots. Nishikori did some of that to win the 2nd.

I think a lot of players are scared to do that because they don't have the confidence in their own shots - but seems like that is a better option than engaging Nole in endless rallies where you're not going to break him down often.

[EaglesPhan36]

Add...ATP Rome
Wawrinka +1.5 Sets @ +120

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Easy

[EaglesPhan36]

Rafa going down again. It's going to be really hard for him to beat a top tier guy at Roland Garros playing like this. I can envision 3-4 guys who can beat him in best of 5s right now and even more if Rafa's level continues to ebb and flow so terribly.