litter box tennis plays

[Snowball]

guys besides Pennetta +6.5 here I also added a smidgen on her to win +697
and some Andy to win +320 with more on Andy/Novak Over 37.5
gl all. I also put $2.99 to win $100.00 on Pennetta to win the Open.

[Straguzzi]

Great call on Nishikori. I need to wait for your plays before I bet from now on!

[Snowball]

obviously Serena is in top form. Pennetta put up a good fight but only won 5 games. Penetta is a better tennis player than Serena, sans the raw
physical arm strength advantage Serena has over all women on the court.
If some of her balls hit from the baseline just tipped over the net she would have covered. But she has the skinny arms of a regular woman. Serena
has the arm strength of a 16-17 year old male althlete. She's not an
exceptional tennis player by any means, she's just got that raw upper body
power that none of the other women have. Even Sharapova doesn't have
as much power because she is far taller but still has a woman's arms.
If this is where women's tennis is ultimately going I shudder to think
what kinds of "women" will be playing out there in a few years, with arms
like tree trunks. end of rant.
No reason to think she'll have any problem at all with Makarova or Wozniacki.
Same results as Pennetta give or take a few games. Andy/Novak Over hit, thanks to Andy's second set. That was the bet that keeps it going.
Other sports coming into play. World Cup basketball competing against tennis for my morning plays. NFL game tonight. College football ML's competing against tennis ml's.

Challenger ML parlay +122
Hanescu, Clezar, Lapentti, Vinolas

more on ATP /WTA later.

[Snowball]

match comments - if anyone has something to contribute or contravert
my line of thought, post it.
i was on the Monfils train but it hits a wall named Roger who feels great.
He's better physically than when he dropped a couple matches to Monfils, and
those were not slam matches. So with Roger at 100% and fully prepared for this
match - he knows exactly what to do to exploit Monfils weaknesses. I think he
will frustrate Monfils into making errors and erratic play. There will be occasional oo's and aah's from the crowd as Monfils makes some great shots, but he doesn't have half the court-savvy mind of Roger. Prediction Federer in straight sets. Covered by the ML just in case Monfils takes one while RF is still figuring it all out.
Berdych/Cilic - Cilic has had the tougher road, he is likely more worn out. The
record between them is 5/8 for Berdych and two of the Cilic wins were on Grass. It seems more likely that Berdych will win the match and the line is nice and soft.
Pennetta/Hingis this pair is playing exceptionally well together with some slow starts but overcoming opponents after they get the ball rolling. I think they are worth a bet considering they have a legitimate shot at the doubles trophy. Hingis will have to be
the killer today just in case there's any fatigue or light ankle issues with Flavia.
Bryan bros. have to be unlikely to lose considering their coordinated play. -400 not a bad line.
Dodig/Melo - Granollers/Lopez - Lopez hasn't looked too good I guess i'd lay the not-so-bad chalk -150 and go with Dodig/Melo rather than take G/L just to be cheap.
Krumm/Strycova +205 vs Makarova/Vesnina ... Makarova should know she has no chance to beat Serena but most players don't think like that. She's got to feel distracted. Either way Krumm and Strycova are very court-savvy pros who can win this match on strategy. They have a legitimate shot at winning doubles trophy and will give 100% guaranteed because they are hungry for it
and Krumm will be 44 in just a few weeks so it could be her swan song. I would hesitate to take Pennetta/Hingis over them as heavy favorities if it comes to that.

[Snowball]

+106 Djo, Fed, Woz, Will
+150 Hin/Pen, Woz, Will
+248 Dod/Mel, Djo, Fed, Woz, Will
+352 Woz, Will, Str/Kru
+514 Bird, Fed, Hin/Pen, Bry/Bry, Woz, Will
+785 Bird -3, Fed -4, Djo, Woz, Will, Hin/Pen
small insurance open parlay +435 Cilic, Black/Mirza
Fed 3-0 +160
Bird 1st Set -135
etc.

[Snowball]

what a match last night. RF really showed his resolve and adaptation skills.
Monfils deserves a lot of respect for getting up 2 sets on Roger.
The announcers didn't mention it after it happened but it was obvious
that Gael wasn't the same player after he twisted his ankle.. and that's
probably the main reason he lost 3 straight sets, regardless of all the RF admiration
going on, I think that's the real reason for his breakdown along with the fact that RF is very hard to beat. Monfils needs a coach and trainer if he wants to break into the top of the ATP - he's certainly capable but needs fine tuning and that outside advice working with a coach who sees things he cannot.. I hope he gets one soon.
I am already on Caroline and Serena today. there are some open spots
in the parlays i have them remaining. I will fill one with Gonzalez and the
other with Federer - but putting Bagnis in a new one.
In Challenger two likely winners are Gonzalez (-750) in his home country of Colombia to beat the American Krajicek who doesn't compare well to Gonzalez anyway and Bagnis (-245) over Lama.
Lean on Hingis/Pennetta to win Doubles but uncommitted so far.
RF can be included in parlays, don't see him losing to Cilic.

[Snowball]

RF +150 at the commercial break
down 3-6,2-3

[Snowball]

oh well.. at least i won Navy in NCAAF today.
team sports always more reliable than one-player sports.

[Snowball]

Serena / Kei +126

- don't see Serena blowing it.
- Kei dealt well with big servers this tounament such as Raonic, Wawrinka, "Djokovic" (if that was him).
- Kei is 5/7 vs. Marin Cilic.
- Kei's last 3 matches were challenging and deep matches. He's displayed clutch.

[Straguzzi]

Good luck today, Snowball.

I don't see her losing either.

I am hoping Wozniacki takes a set however.

With that, I went with:


[859558] SERENA WILLIAMS 2-1 +330

[859542] 3 SETS +195

[Snowball]

good luck straguzzi.
also like some nfl today such as Pats, Niners, Steelers, Eagles

[Straguzzi]

Dogs for me

Cleveland
Oakland
Buffalo
Washington
Tennessee
Atlanta

[Snowball]

there was some late lm toward woz.
i added serena -4 -150 in a parlay.

[kenz]

Serena / Kei +126

- don't see Serena blowing it.
- Kei dealt well with big servers this tounament such as Raonic, Wawrinka, "Djokovic" (if that was him).
- Kei is 5/7 vs. Marin Cilic.
- Kei's last 3 matches were challenging and deep matches. He's displayed clutch.

Dont like Kei. Cilic is way better this week than Raonic and Wawrinka, great serve +strokes. Cilic @ +odds is the bet to make

[kenz]

^Giving a 2nd thought Kei might be the play Shorter guy who moves well and returns well, should do a lot better than Simon

[Snowball]

kei today. -115 and +1.5 (-215). covering both via parlays.
but no more of a play than belows.

quebec city
rogers -400 shelby goes up to qc for her first match in this tournament since being ousted from the open by pennetta. her opponent is a challenger who just happened to win a qualy.rogers is interesting at -5 (-130) also.
dubois +360 and +5 (-110) take a look: http://tennis.matchstat.com/index.ph...d_Player2=-998
it seems good chance dubois will at least keep it close even if goerges can snap out of her losing ways.dubois will be a huge fan favorite as she lives in the area.
de brito -170
lucic-baroni -335
kania -125
^no time to write on these but no less of plays.

hong kong (overnight tonight in us time)
larsson -110 over krumm. larsson played well in the open beating sloane stephens. although krumm took a set off venus, that doesn't mean what it used to. krumm also got to semifinals in doubles. i think larsson will be fresher, hungrier to keep momentum going in the rankings and is the stronger singles player at this late stage of krumm's career.the bet is not without risk however because larsson can be a sloppy player and krumm's style of defensive play can leech errors out of impatient opponents.
hantuchova -300 vs ling zhang, a challenger level player. daniela should not
lose her first match in the tournament. she's never going to beat the upper crust but she is a steady tier-two wta player. ling zhang is a career challenger not wta only occasionally being invited to wta tournaments in asia pacific such as this in her home hong kong.going back to 2004 i dont see one challenger match in hantuchova's record.
lisicki -175 over niculescu - sabine has been playing better and although niculescu has beaten her, i think she was having problems or an injury then (?) but niculescu has been playing poorly and sabine did ok vs sharapova. sabine should be a higher rank than 28 if she can just tweak parts of her game the talent is there. you can tell she's been hard on herself because she has problems vs the upper crust but niculescu is not upper crust.

tashkent very early am tuesday
doi -145 outclasses her opponent. low line.
govortsova -140 her first match in tashkent off the open where she was quickly disposed by genie, but govortsova is making her way in the wta, ranking 117. her opponent is mostly a challenger who
won a cpl easy matches in tashkent but isn't used to the same level of play govortsova is.
knapp -230 outclasses her opponent
friedsam -130 since the open, she's fresh off a challenger tournament win in China (5 matches) so has to be feeling good about herself, takes the plane over to Uzbekistan and wins first matchvs Pervak, a spotty challenger/wta mix player (rank 127) of questionable consistency. is friedsam ready to become an exclusive wta player ? perhaps. she ranks 100 but is still playing challenger occasionally.danger is friedsam is hungover from her tourney win at suzhou.
krunic -135 over tsurenko. nobody can forget krunic after what she did at us open, almost beating azarenka after winning 6 matches in the tournament including victories over keys and kvitova. tsurenko has beaten her twice in the past but that was in '10/'12 on clay and carpet. she was only a teen developing her game then. she's 21 now .. and obviously has found her game. play of the day.

[Snowball]

Rogers is in.
fyi the Quebec City WTA tournament is misclassified on most sites as hard surface,
when actually it is indoor carpet.

[Hardcoar]

Is it really now? Are you absolutely sure about that?

I'm not being sarcastic for the record, I just really have no idea but am very surprised at that.

[Snowball]

Is it really now? Are you absolutely sure about that?

I'm not being sarcastic for the record, I just really have no idea but am very surprised at that.

yes

http://www.coupebanquenationale.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Krejcikova-640x400.jpg

http://www.quebechebdo.com/media/photos/unis/2014/09/06/photo_2708940/article_large.jpg

http://images.lpcdn.ca/641x427/201409/07/901896-canadienne-carol-zhao-reussi-revenir.jpg

[Snowball]

reason for this post is if you scroll above and see my other plays (which are more important
than Kei was as it says in the post) - I'm surprised that Alexsandra Krunic is not more of a favorite
vs Tsurenko ... after what she just did at the US Open. The line started at -135 and is now -105.
I am committed at -135 and some -105 also. Krunic played a dbls match upon arriving in Tashkent.
She and Siniakova beat Doi/Kalashnikova 2-1 with an 13-11 tb. So now she plays Tsurenko in singles.
Don't understand the lm. Hope she wins. still love the bet.

https://twitter.com/KrunicAlex

[Snowball]

ihad a feeling krunic was going to drop this one but stuck with the bet. oh well.
just like some other matches i thought would win i didn't take. (maria, wick, shiavone, cepelova)
sometimes there's just no way to tell. still, rogers won, no surprise there..
also knapp won, doi won, govortsova won, but larsson, dubois and friedsam lost.
mezza mezza. rooting for lisicki here down a set.
players i have action on include
lucic baroni, kania, and de brito in quebec city
hantuchova in hong kong.
add: alize lim / melanie oudin Over 19.5
falconi +165 in the night match in quebec seems interesting but no commit yet.
kudryatseva in tashkent +125 ditto.

[Snowball]

nice comeback sabine.

[Snowball]

de brito sucking wind
add falconi +3.5
very unreliable play. still on oudin/lim over 19.5
and baroni, kania
begu overnight -135 over tsurenko who only beat krunic because she was tired.

[Snowball]

lucic-baroni, oudin/lim over in.

[Snowball]

the falconi +3.5 is light in a parlay, the begu tomorrow is almost medium.
that line on begu is up to -170 from -135. but a more serious play
overnight is the home town girl, akgul amanmuradova. native uzbeki.
she's 30, so she's been around, you probably heard of her.
anyway she's facing lyudmyla kichenok. lyudmyla and nadiya kichenok
are twins, and their rank is 196/172 respectively. akgul ranks 324 however
that is only due to her lack of play this year, and last year for that matter.
when she plays, she can go deep in these tournaments. she won another
tournament in Uzbekistan this year, Bukhara. Challenger, but it shows her
thirst for victory in her home country. she didn't play tashkent last year.
she's been runner-up twice reaching the final match in tashkent 2005/2009
and her highest all-time rank is 50, so this girl knows how to play. she's won
2 WTA titles and 12 ITF. Lyudmyla has won 0 WTF and 22 ITF, her career highest rank is 156, although she is only 22. Now, Akgul beat the twin Nadiya in week 30 in Kazakhstan, 6-2,6-4. Making this more interesting, Akgul and Bondarenko just beat the Kitchenok twins in the last doubles match at Tashkent in a very close match.
Her line is only -130 (-118 -1.5 gms) ... and I think it's worth a play.

Jovanovski is the number one seed in this tournament. (Begu is #2 and we have her covered) She ranks 35 but hasn't been too hot lately.. this is one she's definitely going to want.. I initially leaned Kudryatseva but after more research feel Jovanovski rolls. Being the #1 seed here
and coming off a string of losses to stiffer opponents (Navarro, Bouchard, Jankovic) should give her the edge. Kudryatseva and her swapped matches 4-5 years ago. But Kudry ranks 103 now whereas Jovanovski is having her best year ever at age 22 making serious headway in the ranks.
At only -140 this looks like a deal. also -120 at only -1.5 gms.

Another upcoming play in Tashkent I will be on is Krunic/Siniakova to beat the winner of tonight's arruabarrena/minella vs sharipova/jaksic match. btw Akgul just beat Jaksic. Reason I will back Krunic is not only because she owes me, but because I know she was bone tired from the flyover to Tashkent and the long doubles match in which the 3rd set went 13-11 (vs Doi/Kalashnikova, no small order) ... so she put up the fight she had to next day vs Tsurenko in singles but according to her twitter was indeed spent. Now off rest (they advanced yesterday) tomorrow Krunic/Siniakova will have the edge on an additional day of rest over their opponents who win tonight.
also on Paula Kania tomorrow am in Quebec.
and Shelby Rogers is likely to advance no problem, and Lisicki in Hong Kong.

[Snowball]

good results, Hantuchova and Lisicki in with the wins,
both Akgul and Jovanovski won.
Begu just lost in a 3rd set tb. That's a surprise as she was #2 seed
and Tsurenko keeps rolling on.. but I think she'll be a fade soon.
No line yet on Krunic/Siniakova for overnight.
On to Quebec - don't see an edge on Brengle/Maria. Shelby Rogers
should handle Muhammad, but that's only in ML parlays not -5 which is steep.
Final match of the day looks interesting Julia Goerges facing Melanie Oudin.
These two haven't met since 2011 when they split 1/1 on clay and hard.
At -220 Goerges is favored more than she should be. Oudin +220 has value
but it is going tobe a tough match either way. Over 21 is not what I would want to take, if it was 20 i would think about it. Oudin +220 light. +4 (-110).
More important today is getting something out of Paula Kania. As posted I have
her in the match. Odds are -110 now. She's also coming up later in doubles, paired with Dabrowski vs Maria/Krejcikova. If Kania wins in singles I won't play her in doubles. If she loses singles I am likely to take her in doubles as long as she appears decent when I watch the feed.
The first doubles match today is interesting. Lucic-Baroni/Hradecka have never played together. Both power serve. But what will the chemistry be like ? They are facing a young American pair who have been playing well together with some success, Crawford/Vickery. This American pair is in the tournament only as doubles.. and are going to have a game plan. They have established chemistry but are not expected to win vs the big guns.
I think they are worth a shot at +270. Lucic-Baroni and Hradecka have advanced in singles so their heads are on that, first and foremost.
They could fold here. All it will take is one of them to lose the match.

[Snowball]

rogers won but it was very tight - 3 tb's.. muhammad looked strong. she is getting sharper
as a player. kania looked outright disinterested. i have no idea why she showed up or if it
was a fixed match but i won't take her again i was that unimpressed.
tomorrow i like Jovanovski over Urszula Radwanska at only -110 in Tashkent.
i also am waiting on the Krunic in doubles line.
not going to get in the middle of the two Uzbeki players.
in Hong Kong I like Hantuchova at only -165 and probably Lucic-Baroni at -170 in Quebec.
still rooting for Melanie Oudin tonight but not an important bet.

[Snowball]

you know the bettors really get me.. lol.. Jovanovski is now +100, not -110.
She ranks 35th and is the #1 seed at Tashkent... her opponent U. Radwanska
ranks 205th but is getting the action. Seriously. do ppl think they are betting on
her sister ? i don't know sometimes. U. Radwanska is -120.

[matt1216]

you know the bettors really get me.. lol.. Jovanovski is now +100, not -110.
She ranks 35th and is the #1 seed at Tashkent... her opponent U. Radwanska
ranks 205th but is getting the action. Seriously. do ppl think they are betting on
her sister ? i don't know sometimes. U. Radwanska is -120.

Have you seen U. Radwanska this tournament?

[SirtySree]

you know the bettors really get me.. lol.. Jovanovski is now +100, not -110.
She ranks 35th and is the #1 seed at Tashkent... her opponent U. Radwanska
ranks 205th but is getting the action. Seriously. do ppl think they are betting on
her sister ? i don't know sometimes. U. Radwanska is -120.

dnt get it either. altho radwanska is a better player than her ranking suggests, she is having a terrible year. she only won against Vekic because Vekic always has matches where she has problems serving. 37% first serves in + 8 double faults should usually mean u get whooped.

[Snowball]

Jovanovski came back from down a set and won the match.
Good to see, that was my most important bet.
I have no committed plays yet today except Baroni.
Going to do my thing and come back with more.
You know what upsets me, though, I've been talking for two days about
how I was looking forward to taking Krunic/Siniakova in doubles at Tashkent.
They won last night.. but 5slimes (which I'm currently using) did not offer a line
on the Tashkent doubles matches. I admit that I didn't check after 7pm est
but usually the lines are on during the day.

[Snowball]

10am Italy challenger - Arnaboldi -400
Quebec WTA
Lucic-Baroni -155
Krejcikova -120
Muhammad/Sanchez +280
Babos/Mladenovic -420
Hradecka/LB -420
Krejcikova/Maria -750
notes on two Friday matches: Lisicki -355 probable, Maria +145 vs Rogers possible.

[Snowball]

update
Lucic-Baroni line down to -135 from -170 open vs Babos 1:15 tip
still like her to win.
Jovanovski over Abduraimova opening around -325 will include her.
Karin Knapp -135 to beat Tsurenko.
Muhammad/Sanchez up to 325

[Snowball]

Sanchez/Muhammad won first set then couldn't handle it.
Lucic-Baroni strong win - this tournament looks down to her, venus or goerges.

like all the doubles favorites in Quebec coming up in parlays
Karin Knapp -135 in Tashkent
Jovanovski -285 in Tashkent
Krunic/Siniakova +115 in Tashkent
Tatjana Maria +145 tomorrow over Shelby Rogers in Quebec
Schiavone -125 over Cepelova in Hong Kong
Lisicki -400 and Goerges -240 parlayable

[Snowball]

great rollup here. Lucic-Baroni, Quebec favorites in doubles,
Knapp, Jovanovski, Krunic/Siniakova, Lisicki, and Schiavone all winners.

notes on today
in parlays: Agut, Williams, Lucic-Baroni, Goerges
separate side Maria +145 (not a top level play, a little concerned about her not
having as much rest as Rogers)

i might not have many plays for tomorrow as i am rounding up various
open spot parlays and will probably fill spots with big faves from team sports.