litter box tennis plays

[Snowball]

SI Tennis @SI_TennisToday, 16:40 - No press conference for Serena Williams after three-set win. Released statement saying left knee is swollen, hopes it goes down overnight.

Stosur +5.5 worth a shot and +415 might also be worth a shot

good luck but i just don't feel like betting against SW with Stosur.

+.96 Goffin, Rhyne Williams (i really want to see this Kozlov brat go down)

p.s. I decided not to include any other sports in this thread's plays..
going to isolate tennis.. keep it pure.

[Snowball]

Murray, Sharapova won, but the doubles lost in a tb. tally -788
waiting on Goffin/Williams.
add:
+126 Millman, Bondarenko, 3 spots.
+325 Donaldson

[fitguy67]

lotta young kids got vitamin T (talent)...

not too many combine it with high levels of vitamin C (composure) like this Koslov kid...cool as a cucumber against somebody he could have easily knuckled under too...comes thru on big points against yet another in a string of guys who clearly "should have" beaten him...

there's a hint of something special here

[Snowball]

i know.. he's going to be someone in the ATP, no doubt.. i just watched an interview with him (live)
on the feed.. he's small.. no shoulders.. i have no idea how he does it.. but he does.. he said he
will be ready for Smyczek tomorrow.. even with the next day match and heat may be up to 97.
But he said he doesn't look up to Smyczek..not even concerning height but also as a player.
This kid is very cocky.

[Snowball]

Sharapova -180
Murray +245

going with Smyczek to beat the kid who "doesn't look up to him" Kozlov
and Querrey over Millman.
waiting on Bondarenko in Monterrey here to see if they play or not

[ManeOnFire]

Sharapova -180
Murray +245

going with Smyczek to beat the kid who "doesn't look up to him" Kozlov
and Querrey over Millman.
waiting on Bondarenko in Monterrey here to see if they play or not

Was thinking the same. Murray worth a shot and Sharapova shouldn't have too much trouble me thinks.

[Snowball]

tally since keeping track is still bad.. -888 based on odds..

have this going
+126 Millman, Bondarenko, 3 spots.
waiting on this Bondarenko in Monterrey ITF, no play yesterday.
+131 Jabeur, Smyczek, Sharapova, 2 spots.
+100 Brengle.

[sluggy1616]

tally since keeping track is still bad.. -888 based on odds..

have this going
+126 Millman, Bondarenko, 3 spots.
waiting on this Bondarenko in Monterrey ITF, no play yesterday.
+131 Jabeur, Smyczek, Sharapova, 2 spots.
+100 Brengle.

I bet if you bet these matches individually instead of in parlays you'd be well ahead. Too many upsets in tennis for multi player parlays

[Snowball]

that's certainly true, sluggy, most of my parlays only lose by 1 pick.
still, you can win just as much but gamble less with parlays and i know
i'll be "back" hitting them again so no reason to change my method.

Brengle match is cancelled. She's playing a different opponent so that's a scratch.
the Millman (won), Bondarenko (won) has 3 spots but there is a lack of quality favorites now
so I'm leaving it for next week. Jabeur (won), Sharapova tonight and Smyczek playing now.
only two plays I'm adding, in Japan tonight.. figure good chance one of these hits..

Alize Lim +160
Tori Kinard +260

[Snowball]

unreal Kozlov beats Smyczek.. I realize Smyczek doesn't have much power but this is a big surprise.
Power server like Querrey, assuming he wins today, probably a bad matchup for Kozlov tomorrow
but I am done fading this kid. If the pay is high enough I will take Kozlov. tally -988

+389 Millman, Bondarenko, Sharapova, Goffin, Kulichkova
+160 Lim
+260 Kinard

[Snowball]

sweep. all bets above winners. tally -179

+72 Vandeweghe, Keys
+81 McHale, Riske

[HatersGonnaHate]

I don't want to ruin your excitement and I am glad you are turning it around but I think lim lost

[Jerimjob]

I don't want to ruin your excitement and I am glad you are turning it around but I think lim lost

yea, Lim got destroyed 6-1 6-1 .... Nice pick with Kinard though

[Snowball]

lol.. it's cuz i got paid. two matches, Lim beat Takiyama
then lost to Namigata. sorry, corrected tally -439

Win

10/4/14 10:45pm Qualifying Tennis 1613 Alize Lim +160* vs Junri Namigata

5am EST and 11pm EST same day. computers not so smart :-)

[HatersGonnaHate]

Yeah I didn't want to bring you down. Just didn't want you to be disappointed when you noticed later

[Snowball]

Yeah I didn't want to bring you down. Just didn't want you to be disappointed when you noticed later

can't complain about a day hitting a +389 and +260, fact i got paid for Lim also just makes it even better.

[Snowball]

+72 Vandeweghe, Keys
+81 McHale, Riske

add:
+100 Timea Babos
+247 Tori Kinard again.
+93 Murray,Fognini,Stosur,Bouchard,Pironkova ,Ivanovic,Mannarino,Matkowski/Paes
+2752 Cilic,Gasquet,Murray,Janowicz,Mayer,Benn eteau,Fognini,Cirstea,Riske,Bencic,Stosu r,
Vandeweghe,Beck,Bouchard,Pironkova,Peer

[Straguzzi]

add:
+100 Timea Babos
+247 Tori Kinard again.
+93 Murray,Fognini,Stosur,Bouchard,Pironkova ,Ivanovic,Mannarino,Matkowski/Paes
+2752 Cilic,Gasquet,Murray,Janowicz,Mayer,Benn eteau,Fognini,Cirstea,Riske,Bencic,Stosu r,
Vandeweghe,Beck,Bouchard,Pironkova,Peer

Good luck on bets, Snowball. Max parlay at my bookie's site is 4-sides. Made 4 different 4-side parlay bets.

[Snowball]

hope you didn't include Cilic. I was originally thinking about taking Karlovic but because
he lost when I took him last time vs a lesser opp than Cilic I went the other way, thinking
also that Cilic would be the more likely player to defend the big serve they both have.
so that big parlay is dead. Another upset I was thinking of taking but didn't was Jaziri
over Young. Tori Kinard and McHale both pushed to 3 but lost.
There are some interesting low-level events today. Early bet on an Austrian WTA event added.

+72 Vandeweghe, Keys
+81 McHale, Riske
+100 Timea Babos
+247 Tori Kinard again.
+93 Murray,Fognini,Stosur,Bouchard,Pironkova ,Ivanovic,Mannarino,Matkowski/Paes
+2752 Cilic

9:15am WTA
+91 Beck/Schmiedlova Over 20.5

[Snowball]

Beck/Schmiedlova has been bumped to 11:30
Challenger/ITF

+83 Wolmarans
+125 Giron
+181 Glushko, Doroteja Eric
+204 Kuznetsov, Doroteja Eric
+200 Kuznetsov, Glushko

[fitguy67]

the bastid kuznetsov eff'd up a perfectly good round-robin...now we need D. Eric to minimize the damage...

i'm getting a very jaundiced view of tennis as a viable game to bet on...

team sports are much more reliably true to form-based expectation

in my experience, NHL/MLB/NRL (Aussie Rugby) and volleyball have the least weird shit going on (but i hate NBA and NFL...waaaay too much at the whim of increasingly-fickle officiating)...

Soccer CAN be profitable, but suffers from three buggaboos
1. as in tennis, the "effort" thing can be toggled...capping assumes it's always on max but that seldom happens...so a soccer weenie has to know all the confusing ins/outs of which competition the game applies to and also be able to spot signs of low-motivation such as sitting key players etc...
2. the "playing up to the zebras" thing...the same thing that has absolutely ruined NBA and NFL is now killing soccer
3. the "draw" thing...directly related to #1 how willing a team(s) are to end up with a goddam draw...important to consider in its own right because the price difference between the -0.5 and pk option is usually prohibitive, meaning the prospect of losing on a heartbreak tie (especially by the other team during that other soccer "specialty"...very imprecisely-determined/enforced "injury time"...game ends when the main zebra finally blows the whistle...often not hard to guess which team he's had a bet put on)...

now that i think of it, i put Soccer on that same list of "totally FUBAR" (Fukt Up Beyond All Repair) sports with Basketball and Am.Football...way too much weird shit (zebra-related and otherwise)

luckily NHL (fall/winter) and MLB (spring/summer) can get you thru the full calendar with tons of games with a minimum of officiating debacles ...and NRL seems to overlap these two...and, as you turned me onto...Volleyball also rules...

but fukk tennis, Soccer, Basketball and "Foot"ball

if you like individual sport to bet on, MMA beats the hell out of tennis...dudes are fighting for their physical and financial well-being so max effort is a given

[Snowball]

if Eric wins, her parlay just about cancels out Kuznetsov, the Giron win is more than Wolmarans loss,
and the Over hit on Beck match. Anyway I agree if you are looking for reliability you will pay through
the nose for it in tennis.. and it can still not materialize. I hit a rugby game the other day.. watched it
on BEIN tv. Nice matches. You know what else seems reliable ? favorites in Euro hoops. Have you
looked into the BBL ? British Basketball League. Portsmouth looks good i had them in a parlay the
other day. You know what else I like ? Live betting on soccer unders. Waiting for a goal in soccer is
like waiting for rain. Rather be betting it doesn't rain. SBR "more sports" forum is so dead. It's not
even on the main blue bar. I think it should be in place of UFC. if you are into golf betting i know
a couple free tip sites.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more-sports/

ITF Monterrey feed http://livetv.sx/en/eventinfo/261874...our_monterrey/
not one person there to watch. btw the books have this player we need's name backwards.
She's a girl with the first name Eric. https://www.facebook.com/eric.doroteja I thought her
match record looked a little better than her opponents and she looks stronger.

[Snowball]

Fognini was -1750 and lost to a fortune cookie.
new tally -1051. still not worried. other sports been carrying me
during this drought. milk and honey just 'round the bend.
big card today. to fitguy: tennis is a strong #2 for me, tied with
CFB and NFL, but NCAAB stays on top as I've got a long history of
winning there. If you play NHL, stick to it. Hockey and MLB are
conductive to chase/fade approaches, moreso than NBA or NFL
because the lines are tighter and the losing streaks smaller.
btw, there are also some very reliable favorties in political
betting. the reliability there is better than you will get anywhere
if a candidate is polling 5%+ higher than opponent.

[Snowball]

Jabeur -135
Jabeur/Giorgi +366
Jabeur/Fabbiano +274

[Snowball]

+174 Embree, Rampre
+125 Kolar, Duque-Marino
+185 Molinero
+170 Ce

[Snowball]

tally -585 (+466 improvement with Jabeur, Jabeur/Giorgi)

+91 Brengle -1.5

[Snowball]

+274 Jabeur, Fabbiano
+91 Brengle -1.5
+238 Rybar/Kanepi Over 21, Begu/Brengle Under 21
+174 Embree, Rampre
+125 Kolar, Duque-Marino
+185 Molinero
+170 Ce
+153 Ferrer, Nishikori, Isner
+204 Mannarino, Pouille
+1888529 Millman,Bolt,Dancevic,Langer,Fabianno,Po lansky,El Tabakh,Kolar
Ce,Molinero,Tig,Duque-Marino,Lino,Martic,Simmonds,Burger

[Snowball]

+123 Millman, Dancevic
+110 Bolt

[Snowball]

+151 Stosur, Davis, Vandeweghe
+125 Keys, Cibulkova
+236 Polansky, Haase, Struff
+115 Fabbiano
+226 Tig, Marino, Lino, Martic

[STAY STRONG]

Not a fan of Donaldson today?

[Snowball]

Not a fan of Donaldson today?

he will probably win, but Novikov is kind of a threat.. i wonder if young Jared is
up to this long tour he's been on. so just avoided it.
anyway i got robbed of the Brengle win because I laid -1.5... Begu retired.

[CarloTwoGuns]

why is polansky an underdog?

[Snowball]

the odds tally is back up to -915..two cancelled plays, Brengle and the Under, but hit Kanepi/Rybar over.
next time only 10 bp diff I'll take the ML. I feel like I earned that Brengle bet but got robbed.
Polansky cancelled. These are still on:

+125 Kolar, Duque-Marino
+153 Ferrer, Nishikori, Isner
+204 Mannarino, Pouille
+151 Stosur, Davis, Vandeweghe
+125 Keys, Cibulkova
+60 Polansky, Haase, Struff
+226 Tig, Marino, Lino, Martic

[Snowball]

+245 Nishkori, Wawrinka, Bouchard, Giorgi
+253 Dustov, Lacko, Mannarino, Beck, Brown

[Snowball]

+126 Bryan Bros., Diyas, Bouchard
+99 Nishikori -4, Federer