litter box tennis plays

[Snowball]

WTA Doubles
.86 Hingis/Pennetta, Muguruza/Navarro
+167 Black/Garcia, Barthel/Minella
(-120) Pliskovas

[Snowball]

notice Sisjling and Alund are in. if Angelinos wins this afternoon
then partial hedge the +414 with a Broady +170. The two others
can also be hedged.

[Snowball]

some more plays. a couple dogs i see in Romania have a shot to win (overnight)
- Radu Albot +160, and V.V. Cornea +450
going to sit on these for now and see if the lines expand later.
WTA Singles I like Flipkens +120, Cornet +6, Coco +160,
Bouchard, Lisicki both ml and laying -3.5,-2.5

[Snowball]

xxxxxxxx

[Snowball]

well see what happens tonight. Sadly it appears Ginepri is throwing the match.
This is a guy who has recently beaten Groth, Stakhovsky, Thiem, and Falla...
and he looks like he just doesn't want to play.
He's not going for balls that are near him. He's walking and not running.
Strikes look intentionally long and careless.
He's walking around aimlessly and swatting balls downward.
This is the main risk of challenger level matches.. cue up to one player I will
never take again under any conditions. At least i have Sisjling with Bears Over 16.5
didn't post it because this is a tennis thread.
have to be more selective about these scrub level matches.

[Straguzzi]

Hope you keep up the good work. Made some $ so far today

[fitguy67]

hey sno, when i searched for your other ("common sense" parlay) thread...came across a volleyball-focused one...can u start posting any VB picks there (or here...or somewhere else, at your convenience)...

i agree with you that among all the team sports, volleyball is the one least sullied by over-officiating (american football and basketball have become parodies of sport...more like "legal proceedings in specialized gear")...

[Snowball]

hey sno, when i searched for your other ("common sense" parlay) thread...came across a volleyball-focused one...can u start posting any VB picks there (or here...or somewhere else, at your convenience)...

i agree with you that among all the team sports, volleyball is the one least sullied by over-officiating (american football and basketball have become parodies of sport...more like "legal proceedings in specialized gear")...

i agree and i want to spend more time on volleyball. hithero i've been using mostly as very reliable large favorite parlays. with the lines it is a little trickier. for example right now there are vastly superior teams at big favorite odds laying -2.5 but i don't like for them to have to win 3-0. a good site to see previous performances of these more obscure sports is sportstats.com which also includes handball - another underrated team sport. volleyball is in official FIVB tournament mode now (not just friendly) so expect 100% effort.
I'm considering this Cuba team at +115 just to win one game (+2.5) vs Belgium.
here's some tennis players i'm on today. it's just too time consuming to review action so i'm not going to do that anymore.. i spent most time researching and thinking.. and then arranging.. but the arrangements are subjective.. you guys might come up with better arrangements than i.
- sharapova can't imagine her showing up to this new tournament without intention to win.. so expect her to have no problems with bacsinsky.
- mathieu at a challenger in france. he looked good at metz, again in france expect decent performance and a win.
- krajicek (-130, now -135) vs lama. watched krajicek (usa) play some of these south american challengers and he puts in a lot of effort.. i think he is trying to break into atp. not sure if he is good enough but at least he is serious. he's a lefty which presents a prob for some opponents and i like him today because lama has gone as far as he will in his career and krajicek fights every point.. good server also.
- asia muhammad in vegas itf. she's -165 vs royg. i'm not alone in thinking muhammad could be a rising star and she's got more talent than royg does, who could be drifting into doubles specialty player. muhammad looked improved in quebec. as long as she doesn't get too nervous she should take this match.
- smyczek and mcgee look reliable favorites in napa valley.
clean players who haven't displayed any indications of shadiness.
- polansky -275 another clean player who has the talent to escape the challenger shadows one day if he works hard. also i have ryan harrison -175 in one parlay vs jared donaldson. donaldson is very young and although he has talent i lean with the veteran who is no slouch.

[Snowball]

add: Ghem +130

[Snowball]

well, this Donaldson kid is going to be a star.. just watched the match.. Harrison was frustrated.. there was a bad call by the official 2nd shot to the last that went Donaldson's way.. announcer said it was easily out but was called in. still, Donaldson deserved the match.
and Ghem lost, although that was just a throw-on bet.
Muhammad lost. guess she's not ready for a step up yet.
Mathieu and the straight Krajicek bet are the bright spots today.
had a win this morning with Minella/Barthel also but that was posted yesterday.
Need both Smyczek and Polansky in Napa. If they don't both win, I plan
to take a day off. But if they both win, I'll have some more pics later.
btw i have been having problems with frombar/sportlemon. the government
is probably hacking them. atdhe.sx sometimes ok but what's working best
today is livetv.sx

[Snowball]

smyczek in waiting on polansky
anyway here are my wta leans
can't understand why sharpova line is down to -390
vs bacs (an opponent she has beaten handily twice) and seems
to be underpriced. woz and genie also look cheap.
i guess they figure one will be upset but i see the potential upsets on
other matches.
cornet sharap woz bouchard errani/vinci hingis/pennetta black/garcia

[STAY STRONG]

Polansky pulling a Ginepri.

[Snowball]

yup. I've been getting screwed.. Ginepri, Polansky, Simon..
these players f'd me.. Harrison, retires on Cornet and Coco
that would have been winning bets..
something about these tournaments, time of year
but can only blame self..
and Sharapova.. losing to a second-rate opponent she should eat for breakfast.
her line fell from -600 to -390... i didn't like that.. fishy..
the doubles won. yay. f'n yay. more pics soon
but going to be more deliberate .. see when the tide turns back.
players have not been "themselves"..

[Snowball]

+330
Genie, Mahut, Kuznetsov, Smyczek, Babos

no new bets posted unless one of them loses
or the parlay wins.

[fitguy67]

yeah, of your action...only woz and genie played like they remembered what their day job was...cornet was doing her best to not advance until a timely rush of focus kicked in midway thru the third and saved her

i like backing her cuz she's a fighter, but the bitch never makes it easy on herself...if she's having an easy time of it, she "tunes out", eg. becomes a DF-machine, until she finds herself in a pickle she could have easily avoided by just keeping her foot on the pedal...she obviously enjoys the challenge and drama of turning every hill into a mountain..developing a killer instinct and conserving energy for an entire tournament is a MUCH better approach BUT it's just not in her psychological makeup for her to be methodical like that...i love her intensity, but just hate when she turns it off and goes on "auto pilot" until she wakes up with a crash brewing, then gets intense again...

the deeper she goes into a tourney, the less likely she is to win due to the excess physical/emotional toll she's made herself pay to get there, while facing a better quality of opponent (most of whom have a better strategy for managing their resources for the tournament as a whole...with each match not being just about advancing...but about advancing with minimal "wear and tear")

[Snowball]

yeah, of your action...only woz and genie played like they remembered what their day job was...cornet was doing her best to not advance until a timely rush of focus kicked in midway thru the third and saved her (i like backing her cuz she's a fighter, but the bitch never makes it easy on herself)

Flipkens is a tough vet to beat when she is healthy. Very savvy.

[fitguy67]

you're right...flipkens always makes you pay (or at least sweat a lot) when you go against her...

[fitguy67]

yup. I've been getting screwed.. Ginepri, Polansky, Simon..
these players f'd me.. Harrison.

mahut in danger of being added to that list (let's hope this attempt at a reverse jinx works and he grows a pair quick)...update:

[Snowball]

mahut in danger of being added to that list (let's hope this attempt at a reverse jinx works and he grows a pair quick)

it was a +330.. babos, bouchard won.. smyczek probably win but mahut just lost.. i watched it.
my volleyball parlay is going to hit. +134. (posted in more sports), what i'm going to do here is
place a straight side on Kuznetsov -135 over Broady, exact amt to pay for the parlay.
if he wins I'll have more pics. If not, I am sufficiently disenchanted with tennis over the
last few days to set it aside awhile. Go Kuznetsov. Liam Broady is green. He probably
only advanced because Ginepri was a clown.

[Snowball]

very windy in napa.

[fitguy67]

faak...add kuznetsov...and berrer to the list of short-priced challenger faves shitting the bed

[Snowball]

i'm burnt out with tennis. things are getting bizzare and i don't like it..
so going to take a rest. liam broady looks like he could be ATP level player.
of course he's yet to be roasted properly.. and that will come..
my gut says Hingis/Pennetta will win tonight and challenge for the Wuhan
doubles title.. have their names the first ones inscribed.. you know they
fell in the US Open finals and that was no small achievement for a new pairing.
Flavia was also exhausted by the Serena match. I think I'll hound them paired
with other sport in parlay.

[matt1216]

i'm burnt out with tennis. things are getting bizzare and i don't like it..
so going to take a rest. liam broady looks like he could be ATP level player.
of course he's yet to be roasted properly.. and that will come..
my gut says Hingis/Pennetta will win tonight and challenge for the Wuhan
doubles title.. have their names the first ones inscribed.. you know they
fell in the US Open finals and that was no small achievement for a new pairing.
Flavia was also exhausted by the Serena match. I think I'll hound them paired
with other sport in parlay.

Snowball, this happened last year around this time. Just look for dogs who need a win or fade usually large favorites that are short favs when they shouldn't be....

Lindell on the clay challenger, Carbellas bena have been playing better of late.

[Snowball]

Hingis/Pennetta advanced but the bet was cancelled due to retire.
Lots of retires and unpredictable play in this Wuhan. Watched a couple matches on tennis channel rerun last night. Crowd is dead, didn't even appear half full for Bouchard or Sharapova. Sharapova as soon as she walked out on the court you could see she didn't want to be there.
Only tournament I like today is Las Vegas 50k. Last week I was backing the return of Vaidisova and it paid.. now in Vegas she had been scheduled to play Alexa Glatch which I felt kind of scared off from.. but she's now playing Cepede Royg instead. A couple days ago I lost a bet with Asia Muhammad to Royg. I don't think Royg is a good matchup vs Vaidisova. Nicole's big serve and strong deep forehand should win -165.
Oudin -135 should beat Brady, Karatantcheva -280 > Gonzalez.
No value in Brengle -420 alone but with Vaidisova it's .99/1. She has cruised through Samantha Crawford 3 times and Crawford shows no threat. Brengle ranks 110 so has eyes on <100.
de Brito hasn't been playing great and could be upset by Burgic +195
but I'm not touching it. she could rebound and cruise. pass.
I will put something on Caitlin Whoriskey instead +180. She has been
doing well recently. pull up a h2h between Whoriskey and Kateryna Bondarenko and you'll see.

Brengle (-420) / Vaidosova (-165) [1 to win .988]
Oudin (-135) / Karatantcheva (-280) [.733 to win 1]
Brengle, Vaidisova, Whoriskey [.219 to win 1]

p.s. volleyball team usa (-400), team china (-825) in other setups
fun parlay +5811 all sides above with redskins -3 and yankees -128.
btw vaidisova/yankees is +186.

[Snowball]

tennis is such a pain in the butt lately.
plays "won" .036 today.
Hit Brengle-Vaidisova, lost the two smallers.
Of course this involved such fun as Whoriskey being up 4-1 in the 3rd then
losing 6 straight games, and Oudin losing two tiebreakers.

[Snowball]

small bet on Santiago Giraldo +150 over Victor Troicki.

[Straguzzi]

Good call on Giraldo.

[Snowball]

here are the players i am on today.
- russell has never beaten querrey. no reason he wins today unless sam's serve fails.
- albot early match in romania has the edge and is playing well.
- tatishvili playing well, better than jennifer brady, has chance for 2 consecutive itf titles.
- liam broady's cinderella streak should end with smyczek.
- vaidisova faces a challenge with brengle, but only as a step in her comeback.
she is the more talented and fiercer. just has to stay away from errors.

+717 Querrey (-390), Tatishvili (-290), Smyczek (-240), Albot (-160), Vaidisova (110)
alert while typing. (bet above booked) line movement
Albot now -180, Smyczek now -310.
arranging a few parlay combos with these.
Vaidisova +110 is the only side I'm taking alone.

[matt1216]

Lindell playing very well down south as well, Snowball.

[Snowball]

the wind is so strong at vegas.. ruining the play.. vaidisova's power not a factor when she's
afraid to hit balls due to wind. doesn't look good for her.
albot, smyczek, tatishvili won.

[Snowball]

early: Kirsten Flipkens +4 (100)

[Snowball]

also took Querrey over Bolt with Smyczek over Donaldson at Napa,
in a multi-sport parlay. that's going to be all here today.

[Snowball]

+117 Cilic, Nadal, Waw, Nish, Raon, Serena, Halep
-101 Anderson, Sharapova
+101 Isner, Pennetta
+117 Kirilenko, Ivanovic
Dolgopolov -1.5 (-110) over Sock
Troicki -1.5 (-110) over Youznhy
Go Soeda +110 over Young

[Snowball]

+117 Cilic, Nadal, Waw, Nish, Raon, Serena, Halep
-101 Anderson, Sharapova
+101 Isner, Pennetta
+117 Kirilenko, Ivanovic
Dolgopolov -1.5 (-110) over Sock
Troicki -1.5 (-110) over Youznhy
Go Soeda +110 over Young

Lauren Davis -138 over Yi-Fan Xu 9am est

[Snowball]

+117Cilic, Nadal, Waw, Nish, Raon, Serena, Halep
-101 Anderson, Sharapova
+101 Isner, Pennetta
+117 Kirilenko, Ivanovic
Dolgopolov -1.5 (-110) over Sock
Troicki -1.5 (-110) over Youznhy
Go Soeda +110 over Young
Lauren Davis -138
+136 Harrison, McGee
+150 Demoliner