Agut, Goerges, Lucic in.
add: Krunic/Siniakova -105 in Tashkent.
add: Krunic/Siniakova -105 in Tashkent.
-
Comment -
train keeps a rolling.
congrats Krunic/Siniakova on their first ever WTA Doubles tournament win.
notes: Venus almost went down to Hradecka. We all know Venus is a shadow
of her prime, but she's still able to pull out the gusto at times.. I think this
says more about Hradecka becoming a formidable opponent.
Just going to round out some large open parlays today. Don't want to get
in the middle of the Quebec singles matches. The only bet I may make is
Lucic-Baroni/Hradecka in doubles there, but I only want to take them if
Lucic's match beforehand is not a marathon.Comment -
well, Lucic-Baroni vs Goerges went to 3 sets, but the final set
was 6-2 for Lucic, so I'll back her with Hradecka coming up in
dbls @ +130.
update: overnight Hong Kong final win likely for Lisicki, at -200
that's not bad odds. -3 is juiced to -125 so I'd rather just
do the -200 in any parlays with other sports.Comment -
won my only two bets yesterday. Lisicki even went down to -175.
today I have Agut -185, Haase -180, Goffin -270 and Bachinger -690
in parlays. placed the bets at 12am after Florida/Ky game. i have Lucic
+348 (315 now) and Venus both in parlay set ups.. so I'd rather see
Lucic win, as the payout would be higher. but if Venus does, that's ok.
Going to add a side of half Lucic +5 (-160) and half +4 +120.
Then she's going up for the Dbls win also. Again need to see how much
energy is spent in the Sngls first but it's funny they are same odds as
yesterday.. +130. I noticed they had a slow start yesterday losing the first set
probably because Lucic had played earlier. But then she found her second wind.
Playing Lucic both singles +315 and doubles +130 is +ev for her to win either.
I see Bustagut is up to -300 now, big move from the -185.Comment -
wow what a convincing straight set tournament win by Mirjana Lucic.
Tennis Channel is replaying this at 8pm.
No reason why she and Hradecka, another hard-lucker, can't win Doubles too.
Good for her, she stepped out of tennis for many years, was victim of abuse
after being a huge success in her teens. At 32, she deserves all she can get.
Venus better hang it up. She's just about embarrasing her legacy out there.
I see Bustagut lost. Bellucci punked him. His odds went from -180 to -370
goes to show you what odds mean (usually not a lot).
I have a 25-spot open parlay with only two slots filled, Lisicki and Lucic.
The parlay is already +603 booked on those two slots with 23 more to go.
The overnight card is opening up here with 3 Asian tournaments in play,
Japan, China, and South Korea. I'll have something before the night is out.Comment -
Just fantastic, she did it and won both singles and doubles in same tournament.
lots of action. it's tough sometimes with these Asian tournaments.. have to look over
and think about it at different hours.
Tokyo qualy Eguchi -105
Tokyo qualy Rodionova -175 /Stosur/Azarenka +105
Cornet/Doi/Cirstea +101
Begu -125
Na-Lae Han -135
Yi-Fan Xu +120
Rybarikova +125
Nara +130
Kirilenko -120
Shvedova -130
Flipkens +158Comment -
snowball, can u post the current state of your open parlay and give us a heads up after each new addition to it...i'd love to plug in and follow alongComment -
i can't do that yet, as i am unsure how much i will need that one to hit. so it's still up in the air how aggressive i want it to be. i often cross-sport, so i won't clutter the thread with it but if you are interested come back and ask me and i'll let you know. right now i need to see how many of the open parlays i have are going "live" before i can decide what to do with it. at +603 already with 23 spots remaining it has great potential.Originally posted by fitguy67
Still waiting on most of the sides posted yesterday. So far, a couple tight
match losses with Begu and Shvedova, Eguchi lost, Rodionova lost.
Cornet, Doi, and Han in with wins. I really don't understand the Flipkens line.
I thought it would go down from +158, rather it's up to +170. Flipkens hasn't
been having any problems with her game, she comes into the tounament in
established form, whereas Cibulkova hasn't come out of her massive slump.
That is injury-related, however it's been long enough and she still hasn't
been the same player. Why would expectations be so high for her when
Flipkens is a solid challenge even if Cib was at 100%.
Another interesting match will be Maria Kirilenko. She's had time but outside
of the Wimbledon win vs Stephens hasn't shown anything recently. It's been
a long time since her quick defeat at US Open by Sharapova. She could be ok.
Vs. 18 year-old Donna Vekic. Vekic hasn't shown any ability to defeat solid opponents. If Maria K loses this match, it means she shouldn't be on the court.
I am taking Middelkoop +175 in an early challenger match over in Morocco.
also Schwartzman/Miele .96/1Comment -
no problem, just keep us posted on any upcoming plays u deem worthy enough to be included in your big parlay...no need for update of odds/accumulated odds etc. cuz clearly everyone's "mileage may vary"...
love the thread...i treat it as a "heads up" shortlist...eg. i hate betting on flip-can but you make a great point about her form vs. the perky munchkin's, not to mention their last two h2h...
keep up the good workComment -
tailed you on the swartzman parlay. nice callOriginally posted by SnowballComment -
lots of surprises in the early round of these Asian tournaments.
Huge favorites lost. Most of them I intentionally avoided going in.
But I did get caught with a couple, which killed a parlay.
Stosur lost to Wang. That's a rank 20 losing to a rank 235. She
was up to -900 from somewhere in the 6's when i put her in that
parlay which already lost with Rodionova. She's becoming less
predictable as she ages. Then Cirstea lost to Martic.
On the plus side besides the Schwartzman.Miele parlay, Xu booked
a win at 120, Rybarikova at 125, and Kirilenko at -120. What I'm most
glad about, however is all the favorites I avoided because I thought they
could lose. So I didn't take them, but obviously should have taken the underdogs.
Lauren Davis, Hantuchova, Cepelova, Knapp, Lisicki and Errani all lost. I also
avoided Vasselin, who lost to Muller.
With these Asian time frame tournaments we need to see evidence in the first
round that the player is bringing their top level game before taking them. Also
I'm glad I included some Asian home players who have high motivation.
I think in WTA betting it's best to tread lightly in the Qualies and First Round, to see what these girls are bringing. This establishes the form they are likely to continue to display in the meat of the tournaments.
Not sure how much to read into the Cibulkova win over Flipkens. The score wasn't very close which is very unlike Flipkens so she must have been ill-prepared. Kirilenko went 3 sets and won, that's exactly what she needs.
The match of the day as far as I'm concerned is taking place in an ITF 25k
tournament in Albuquerque. The return of former world #7 Nicole Vaidisova,
after a 5 year hiatus. I just put her in the open spot parlay mentioned in previous posts and a cpl others. She's at +190 here. It would tick the parlay up to +1941. Can't win if you don't play. She's going up against Karantcheva, who I watched lose handily to Lucic-Baroni in her last match. She didn't look strong. She hasn't been the same player since getting caught for taking steroids years ago. These women are both 25 years old.
So it's good to see Vaidisova attempting a comeback at an age where she still has time. Vaidisova appears to have been working out and practicing with her network of Czech players and should be ready for this.
Karantcheva is not a powerful hitter. Of course the risk is that it's her first outing in the comeback and she may not handle it well, but I doubt it because of her past performance so elevated and the long layoff, she's likely ready to pounce out of the gate.
Likely more plays today and of course overnight but this is a long post already.Comment -
two more plays...
Cornet / Will (ITF) +118
Paulo Lorenzi / Christina McHale +211Comment -
Very impressive return to tennis today by Vaidisova 6-3,6-4.
That win was important to me.
She looked like Sharapova out there. Definitely keep an eye on her.
On a lesser note, Allie Will just lost in 2 tb's and a 7-5 to Whoriskey.
Not an important play, matter of fact I have Cornet booked in another parlay anyway.
Lorenzi is in, waiting on McHale there.
Here's more sides I am on going into tomorrow.
Yi-Fan Xu +135 has shown form with a win, in her home country vs a lackluster opponent.
Rosol -104 (ATP) Mathieu is old. He's persistent but Rosol is well rested so I like the odds.
Cibulkova -3 (-120) She smells blood after getting a win. I don't think Coco's serve will be able to hurt Dominika enough. She's the better returner and more persistent rallier.
Black/Mirza -165 one of the premier established pairs going up against Dellacqua and Raymond who are not an established pair, and Dellacqua is thinking singles.
Sherif Sabry +265 in Morocco. Line was +295 when I capped it and saw a misprice. At +265 it's still a misprice. Match could easily go either way so there is value in the low expense.
a couple fiesty Asian plays on their home turfs:
K.Zhang +4 (-105) vs Alison Riske
L.Zhang +5 (-112) vs Monica Puig
fun bet coming up at 6:30 est: 16 year old Ghilherme Scarpelli, fresh out of Juniors playing in his home country of Brazil, at +1100 vs Federico Gaio. Yes it's unlikely but you never know. What if the kid gets lucky and Gaio is off ? It's not like Gaio is anything hot. What if he throws it at these odds ?
and here's a +1066580 parlay i put a dollar on so you can see my leans.
Lajovic +3, Sousa +3.5, Tsonga -4, Rosol, Lorenzi/Seppi, Cibulkova -3,
K.Zhang +4, L.Zhang +5, Xu +135, Cornet -450, McHale -105, Wickmayer +135, Kirilenko +105, Black/Mirza -165, Muguruza/Navarro -195.Comment -
hit with Lorenzi/McHale +211, K.Zhang (-105), L.Zhang (-112), Black/Mirza (-165),
lost with Xu +135 and Sabry +265. Push with Cibulkova -3. Cornet in.
Waiting on Rosol.
Initially was thinking Tsonga -3 but now that it's juiced to (-125)
I'm going to loop him (-435) with Dabrowski (-185) and Rampre (-175)
for a +198.
also Broady (+105), Irigoyen (+140), and Jaksic (-135).Comment -
this is all i like for overnight action.
Cornet 1st set -255
Barthel/Minella -170
Doi/Xu -155Comment -
won all 3.
got a bad day out of the way yesterday, was due to happen. surprises in ITF.
good to see return to norm with the 3-0 last night. I put them in the +1760
open parlay. As of now I have 4 open parlays with wins running.
One will pay +1760 if Tampa Bay scores over 17 tonight with 2 spots remaining.
I might hedge it.
One is at +813 with just 1 spot remaining.
Another at +1941 with 22 spots remaining.
the last one is around +10900 but involves Scott Brown to win NH so might not happen.
waiting on the ITF Albuquerque lines. you know who I like.. Vaidisova.Comment -
Attempting to close parlay 2 above with Pablo Carreno-Busta in Meknes
vs Lucas Pouille. Parlay would close out at +1028.
separately on Vaidisova +110.
there are tempting dogs in Albuquerque today. Which ones to take is
a matter of speculation. But these do all stand a chance to win:
Barbieri 140 over Falconi, Hesse 180 over Chirico, Boserup 140 over Oudin,
Rampre 190 over Kania, Black 180 over Tatishvili, and Weinhold 300 over Brengle.
not an easy call but if I had to pick two most likely I'd go with Hesse and Barbieri.
I'm going to add Hesse 180 for now.Comment -
Vaidisova looks great and Hesse is up .. but i fell into a trap with Busta.
just finished watching, it was either a thrown match or he felt afraid in Morocco or
something. Creepy atmosphere almost no crowd except kids and Muslim prayer chants.
Busta stood there watching balls go past him at times. Hittable balls. He also clearly
was intentionally hitting balls out and at other times seemed to be aiming for the bottom
of the net. Fine tuning how to avoid matches like this.
besides the two above adding Barbieri +140Comment -
God hates a coward so I'm putting Janowicz -160 in with the Bucs Over 17
parlay for +2923 with one spot open. Go Jano. He is a good indoor player.Comment -
Jerzy won so I'm nursing that parlay now.
if you need a play Cornet and Niculescu look like a parlay overnight.
I also think Minella/Barthel have another doubles win up their sleeves.Comment -
Cornet, Niculescu, and Minella/Barthel all won.
today I like Monfils, although how to play him is a matter of taste.
I also like Woz in Japan and Konta over Whoriskey in Alb.Comment -
Monfils and Konta in.
Waiting on Woz tonight - can't see why she
would have a problem with Mugu unless a fluke happens.
add: Kirilenko +120 over Karoline Pliskova.
the Pliskovas have been playing a ton of tennis in recent weeks,
so this is a play on fatigue or burnout perhaps creeping in, also
a play on Kirilenko's pedigree. She has been proving herself in this
Asian foray. Perhaps she is very close to "form".Comment -
Snowball what about niculescu vs cornet whos on roll todayComment -
i probably would have leaned cornet, but saw it as 50/50, didn't bother.
kirilenko lost in 3 to pliskova. it appears that the karoline sister of the
pliskovas is ready to move up in the ranks, she's been on the upswing
and perhaps kirilenko isn't quite there yet. only more time will tell if
kirilenko is capable of becoming elite again.
i might not have any new plays until next week's tournaments.
what i did was fill up the card on the 25 spot parlay i mentioned in other posts,
to see if i can clear it with a win on various large favorites in CFB for a +5747 payout.Comment -
Any idea lepchenko vs pliskova tomorrow snowballComment -
lean on Lepchenko but leaving that alone... becauseOriginally posted by boranoki23
Pliskova is rolling... playing great tennis... scares me off it.
There is a huge card up. More Asian tournaments.. so I'll have action tomorrow
night late.. really nice card with opportunities in qualies and first round.
one bet I like tonight is Barthel/Minella +100 to win the Doubles title in Korea.Comment -
Huge new Premier 5 level tournament this week in China
all the top 5 will be there.
here are my early leans in rd 1
Schiavone -155, O 21.5, Xu +5.5, Nara +4, Garcia +5, Vekic +4, Knapp -135,
Giorgi +2.5, Pennetta -270, Errani -220, Peng -190, Vinci +160, Zhang +460
McHale +285, Pliskova/Stosur (not sure yet but interesting), Cibulkova +100,
Lisicki +115, Torro-Flor +340
Comment -
You've been really damn solid. Keep up the good work.Comment -
hey guys I've been concentrating on football the last couple days but certainly keep abreast
of tennis.. have a +888 parlay going tonight, needs Carolina to win. ("common sense parlay +888)
thread in NFL. Hope I hit it.
Some action is in from China WTA. These Asian tournaments are a trade-off, but I don't prefer them.
Sure, you get to cap and consider matches all day but it's just not the same as being able to watch.
Of course, the matches are when I am sleeping. But let's recap some of my early leans.
Schiavone lost to Flipkens in 3 tight sets. This means Flipkens is playing better again after she
endured a slump. It went Over 21.5 easily. Nara didn't cover, but Knapp won -135 and so did Garcia.
I had a feeling Garcia might be able to beat Venus but didnt take her at the very high high odds to win,
only on points, because she hasn't displayed that ability to get beyond just playing tight and actually come
up with a big win to the finish. She finally did. Venus should retire, next year the latest. Another winner
was Xu+5.5. She could have won the match but had to retire during the 3rd set TB due to injury.
Still the same leans as above. Frederico DelBonis could be a good bet over Juan Monaco in an ATP
event also in China. I liked him and see the line movement means others thinking the same.
There is another tourney in Malaysia where Moriya is +4 +340 seemingly undervalued vs Dodig.
Kyrgios -160 over Matosevic seems cheap too. back to WTA confident in Cornet (-425), Pennetta (-245)
to a lesser extent but still relatively confident Errani (-225) and thinking Roberta Vinci to put up a
fight vs Casey Dellacqua, not sure how much value in +3.5, +155. Besides Xu I want to keep at least
one more fiesty homer Chinese player in there.. so it's Zhang to possibly pull an upset over Navarro.
On the line she is +5.5 which is appealing. Peng also a homer play, she is (-190) vs Barthel, deserves to
be the favorite of course, perhaps underpriced. Barthel has been playing a lot of doubles. She may not be
ready for Peng who also looked solid at the US Open. Coco V should be ok (-225) over Beck. Probably even cover
the spread -3.5. Beck had a walkover vs Minella. Before that, she lost 3 straight. So that is questionable.
She doesn't rank with Coco anyway. Coco is coming off a 7-6(5), 7-5 tight loss to Cibulkova. No shame in that.
Speaking of Cibulkova playing good tennis again, I like her over Madison Keys at +108 here. I think her style
will be difficult for Keys to deal with. In the McHale/Jankovic match I like McHale. +280 +5 pts. She has been
playing solid tennis. Janko is more reliable than McHale but she's waning as a player while Christina is on the
uptick. Perhaps she is ready to elevate. Lastly, Torro-Flor could be due for a surprise match and play Mugu
tighter than ppl think, but not a very serious play. Realize none of these plays are worth risking big on.
The tournament is early and we haven't even seen the seeds yet. Worth betting, yes, but not bigger until
at least one match round is in so we can see how these players are showing up to the new event, which is
a totally new event on the circuit.Comment -
Next time you write so much info... try using paragraphs....
With that said... good luck with your parlay. I took Pitt +3.5
Maybe Carolina can win by a field goal
Comment -
Originally posted by Snowball
There, that takes care of the formatting.
Following most with parlays on high odds and flat bets less than -160.
Thanks for plays and explanations.
Of course => Good luck.Comment -
exactly my approach as well...Originally posted by Straguzzi
Comment -
Cibulkova got injury problemComment -
Mchale is no good... its like a kid for jancovicComment -
daytime Challenger parlays
+414 Sijsling, Ginepri, Alund, Angelinos
+134 Sijsling, Ginepri, Alund
.87 Sijsling, Ginepri
ATP
+127 Ram, Simon, Andujar
+107 Ram, Groth
+116 Simon, Kyrgios
+220/235 area Maximo Gonzalez
future: Andy Murray +120
big motivation for Andy who accepted entry into this new tournament
basically just so he will make the tour finals in UK. opps to hedge
will be +ev so there is value.
wta later.Comment
