meganie's Tennis Picks 2009

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 12:59 PM

7u Blake over Spadea -500

Call me crazy, call me insane...

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 02:09 PM

Eagles, you kinda jinxed me, didn't hit one single bet since.

2u Acasuso over Cuevas -184
10u Robredo over Fognini -588

Concerning the Robredo match, don't think there's a more sure bet today than this one (asides from those veeery heavy favs over -1000). Not saying it is a "lock", but there's value on Robredo's side. Fognini's performance in the first set was a disgrace to tennis, never seen somebody play that bad in an ATP match, reason why he won than? Because first Zampieri wasn't playing the best, had many unforced errors too, second the Brasilian obviously lacked experience in closing out a match, was up I think 5-3 in the second set. Robredo isn't the player he was once, but he's consistent and he looked ok in his first match. I'd be very surprised if Fognini makes it to a tie break or even wins a set.

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 03:41 PM

1u Haas -5.5 over Rochus -110

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-09, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by meganie

7u Blake over Spadea -500

Call me crazy, call me insane...

I read somewhere that Blake has an injury suffered during doubles play. It was the reason he withdrew from the exhibition match with Sampras the other night & Haas took his place. Just wanted to let you know in case it influenced you. Some rib thing I believe.

Sorry about the jinx. Baghdatis will cure us.

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I read somewhere that Blake has an injury suffered during doubles play. It was the reason he withdrew from the exhibition match with Sampras the other night & Haas took his place. Just wanted to let you know in case it influenced you. Some rib thing I believe.

F***, didn't know that, weird thing the line didn't move that much, as you would expect.

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Sorry about the jinx. Baghdatis will cure us.

Marcos, the almighty Baghdatis.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-09, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by meganie

F***, didn't know that, weird thing the line didn't move that much, as you would expect.

Well I think that speaks volumes on how poor Spadea is.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-09, 07:39 PM

Marcos Baghdatis

What a choke. Up 4-0 in the tie break and he loses 7-5.

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 08:27 PM

Thursday
5u Simon over Ancic -250
And once again Ancic is overvalued by the bookies. His play is way too erratic to beat someone like Simon on a decent day. You could argue that he made it to the Zagreb final, yes, but he didn't beat any player inside the top 50. His win over Gabashvili might look impressive, but believe me, it wasn't. Gabashvili was way off his game and the fact that Ancic was mostly outplayed by Hernych from the baseline should say everything about his chances here. Another thing is Ancic' clutch inability. He needs way too many break points to convert them to breaks (see Djokovic in Sydney or Cilic in Zagreb) against top players. If your opponent is someone like Simon, who is known for his clutch ability in key points (well, except when he plays Nadal), this gives you a huge disadvantage.

2u Dent over Widom -205

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Marcos Baghdatis

What a choke. Up 4-0 in the tie break and he loses 7-5.

Sums up my day perfectly. 4 three-sets losses out of 4.

Atleast good to see you're doing better. Tomorrow is a good day I feel, many favorites who don't choke normally. Can't see any dog worth playing so far, though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-09, 10:06 PM

I like that Dent pick. Not available at my book, but it's solid.

**meganie** · 02-12-09, 05:21 AM

Wednesday (Haas Spread, Acasuso, Robredo, Blake, Simon) 5-5 (Karlovic, Kleybanova, Ferrer, Guc/Step, Baghdatis) +1.81
YTD 85-59-11 +26.61u

2.5u Acasuso over Schwank -220

**meganie** · 02-12-09, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by meganie

5u Simon over Ancic -250
And once again Ancic is overvalued by the bookies. His play is way too erratic to beat someone like Simon on a decent day. You could argue that he made it to the Zagreb final, yes, but he didn't beat any player inside the top 50. His win over Gabashvili might look impressive, but believe me, it wasn't. Gabashvili was way off his game and the fact that Ancic was mostly outplayed by Hernych from the baseline should say everything about his chances here. Another thing is Ancic' clutch inability. He needs way too many break points to convert them to breaks (see Djokovic in Sydney or Cilic in Zagreb) against top players. If your opponent is someone like Simon, who is known for his clutch ability in key points (well, except when he plays Nadal), this gives you a huge disadvantage.

Worst. overration. ever.
I suck at not being able to rate stats over impressions.

**tevari** · 02-12-09, 08:05 AM

Any opinion on this morning's match between jankovic & li Meg? H2H Li has taken 3 out of 4 matches, and has great plus odds today. probably won't pull the trigger though.

**meganie** · 02-12-09, 08:06 AM

Starting digging

1u Almagro/Gil OVER 20 -121
1u Murray/Seppi OVER 18.5 -115
1u Nishikori/Del Potro OVER 21 -113
1u Gulbis/Roddick OVER 22 -115
0.6u Blake/Serra UNDER 20.5 +106

**meganie** · 02-12-09, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by tevari

Any opinion on this morning's match between jankovic & li Meg? H2H Li has taken 3 out of 4 matches, and has great plus odds today. probably won't pull the trigger though.

I have Jankovic for the Bragging contest, but won't pull the trigger, have enough -200+ favs. Don't forget that Li was injured and it's her second match in 2009. Schiavone looked great in Fed cup and if she played like that against Jankovic and Jelena still managed to get a win, it counts much. Under those circumstances, I tend to take current form over h2h. I'd say, if Li moves over +300, I'd take it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-12-09, 10:31 AM

I'm passing on everything today bro. The prices blow.

**losturmarbles** · 02-12-09, 03:45 PM

meganie's gender

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I'm passing on everything today bro. The prices blow.

i wouldve guessed meganie is female. she's a sis, not a bro.

**meganie** · 02-12-09, 03:50 PM

5u Tsonga over Tursunov -260

Originally posted by losturmarbles

i wouldve guessed meganie is female. she's a sis, not a bro.

If you're referring to my name, meganie does not come from meg, so...(It's kind of embarrassing, so just search and don't ask...again. And it's from a long time ago, so no, not anymore.)

**losturmarbles** · 02-12-09, 04:24 PM

i thought you were a girl because apparently meganie is a girly looking pokemon character. i didnt directly ask you, and you didnt directly deny it, and you seem a little touchy on the subject, so im guessing youre a girl, but rather keep it a secret. so i apoligize. i guess the thought of a girl handicapping and gambling is pretty hot. anyway carry on, i won't pollute your thread with useless dribble anymore.

Attached Files

**meganie** · 02-12-09, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by losturmarbles

i thought you were a girl because apparently meganie is a girly looking pokemon character. i didnt directly ask you, and you didnt directly deny it, and you seem a little touchy on the subject, so im guessing youre a girl, but rather keep it a secret. so i apoligize. i guess the thought of a girl handicapping and gambling is pretty hot. anyway carry on, i won't pollute your thread with useless dribble anymore.

Lol, not a secret. Nobody asked and I didn't bother to tell that everyone. But you're right.

**meganie** · 02-13-09, 08:44 AM

5-3-1 -2.6u
YTD 90-62-12 +24.01u

2u Roddick over Haas -278
1.4u Robredo over Acasuso -139
0.8u Radwanska over Mauresmo +108
0.6u Querrey over Blake +185
0.5u Benneteau over Monfils +270

1u Gil/Bellucci OVER 22.5 -118
1u Benneteau/Monfils OVER 21.5 -117

**meganie** · 02-13-09, 04:47 PM

3u Del Potro over Fish -272

Tomorrow
5u Zvonareva over Peer -420

Chasing...
4u Roddick over Haas -273

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-09, 07:41 PM

Don't chase broseph! Although I think you got it with Roddick. I'll be rooting hard for you and since I got Andy in the futures too.

**meganie** · 02-13-09, 08:35 PM

Should've just sticked to my original plays and skip the Del Potro one.

Nevertheless Roddick should take it, Haas doesn't have much to hurt him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-13-09, 08:48 PM

I think Del Potro has got to be on the watch list now. That Federer match in Australia may have scarred him for awhile. No way Fish should dominate him like that.

**meganie** · 02-14-09, 06:48 AM

Today is dogs' day.

1u Bellucci over Robredo +275
1.4u Mauresmo over Jankovic +141
1u Fish over Blake +140

0.4u Mauresmo 2-0 over Jankovic +300

**meganie** · 02-14-09, 01:40 PM

Adding
2u Bellucci/Robredo OVER 21.5 -114
5u Roddick over Stepanek -370
1u Nadal -4 over Monfils +132

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-09, 01:58 PM

Good looking card man. I rode Bellucci in the last 2 rounds and that price, there is only one way to play that final. Bellucci or no play. Robredo has been solid this tourney, but against a big hitter who goes for winners on clay - who knows?

**meganie** · 02-14-09, 02:14 PM

Robredo always has problems with big hitters/servers, they tend to outhit him. Acasuso was kind of garbage, that result doesn't say much.

The best bet actually I think is the over, because if things aren't going Robredo's way, he gets annoyed with the crowd and starts making errors. Saw that in Metz against Benneteau. And Bellucci NEVER wins it the easy way, he still makes tons of errors on return games, but is hard to break.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-09, 05:19 PM

Fish killed Blake in straights.

**meganie** · 02-14-09, 05:43 PM

Beeeeeelllllllllucccccccciiiiiiii

Blake suffered from an injury, ankle I think. His movement was poor. Plus he simply gave up after the first break in second set. Thank god he didn't retire.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-09, 08:27 PM

Damn. Bellucci pushed Robredo to a 3rd, but I think nerves got him as he was serving down 4-5 and got broken to give Robredo the win. Like Lou always says when you get a 3rd set loser, it was the right pick.

Let's go Roddick!

**meganie** · 02-14-09, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Damn. Bellucci pushed Robredo to a 3rd, but I think nerves got him as he was serving down 4-5 and got broken to give Robredo the win. Like Lou always says when you get a 3rd set loser, it was the right pick.

Let's go Roddick!

If that were true, my record would be about 140-20 or so.

I'm happy that my over hit, Bellucci winning would have been a sweet candy though.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-09, 08:45 PM

Yeah. Seems like my "watch" list is growing every day, but Bellucci on clay this season is a guy to watch. Will be interested to see his next dirt tourney outside of Brazil to see if he can carry the success over. This guy I think if he can tone his game down a bit as far as going for the sluggo style - could be a dark horse to make a run in the French if he doesn't get a shit draw. He drew Nadal last year.

**meganie** · 02-14-09, 08:53 PM

Bellucci is a headcase. I was rooting for him to win this tourney not only cause I had money on him, but because I was hoping for a Verdasco effect. This guy has tons of talent, but seems always to make bad shots in crucial moments. Though aside from the last game, he was clutch. Always 0-30 behind, still winning it to 30. If you compare that to his first game vs. Starace it's like night and day. Amazing what confidence can do to you.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-14-09, 10:44 PM

Yeah. Guy's 21, so if he has any sort of coach + maturity, he should at least be a factor on clay. Hell, his serve is pretty stout - he might be a guy who KOs a couple people who don't have great return games here & there on hard courts.