meganie's Tennis Picks 2009

[meganie]

I'm gonna pick heavy favs more carefully, got heavily this week.

Friday 3-5 -1.85
(W:Roddick, Gil/Bell, Robredo - L:Radwanska, Benneteau, Querrey, Benn/Monf, Delpo)

Saturday 4-3-1 -0.09
(W: Fish, Zvonareva, Bell/Robr, Mauresmo - L:Roddick, Mauresmo 2-0, Bellucci)

YTD 97-70-13 +22.07u

1.5u Stepanek/Fish OVER 23.5 -103

[meganie]

Monday
Marseille
1u Lopez over Ljubicic -120

Dubai
0.4u Sugiyama over Bartoli +282
0.3u Medina-Garrigues over Mauresmo +330
0.5u Niculescu over Peng +210

Notes:
- Mauresmo/Medina-Garrigues: Mauresmo had an 2&1/2 hours match today and nearly played 2 hours yesterday. The match today started at 3pm CET I believe. With ceremony, press conference and interviews she'll stay in Paris atleast till 9pm CET. That means she'll be in Dubai rather late and with less than one day time to recover I'm expecting her to be tired and making more ues than usual. Medina-Garrigues could profit from this as she's one of the more solid players on tour.

Tuesday/Wednesday
Marseille
1u Santoro over Benneteau +155

Memphis
1u Hewitt over Blake +135*
2u Rochus over Young -115
1u Querrey over Haas +115
0.5u Petzschner over Nieminen +214

* Not a play yet. Will wait till I find something about how serious Blake's ankle injury is.

Notes:
- Hewitt/Blake: Blake is injured. As bad as Hewitt is atm, I expect him to move Blake around the court and with the way Blake is playing, he'll go for every shot he can get to shorten the points, which could result in many unforced errors.

- Santoro/Benneteau: This one is quite a difficult match to cap, because of Benneteau being one of the streakiest players on tour. If he hits the line which he did often against Davydenko and Lopez, he'll destroy Santoro 6-1 6-1, if not, he'll lose this match as Santoro is clearly the more intelligent player (intelligent in case of tactics on court) of them. I'm going with Santoro because Benneteau as fav is a player to fade and I'm expecting Santoro to disturb Benneteau's rhythm with some unorthodox shots and I could see Benneteau getting more and more confused during the match with netting many shots.

- Querrey/Haas: This is a tricky match. Querrey has the bigger serve, but is inferior from the baselilne. That to be said Haas' form is the big question, he looked abysmal against Nadal (who don't?) and had issues breaking challenger players as he struggled to do that against Rochus and Pörschke in the second set in San Jose. On the other hand, Querrey beat Baghdatis (it was lucky though as Baghdatis was up 4-0 in the deciding tie break) and had an easy win against Gremelmayr before he got beaten by Blake. So both got beaten by good servers in their last match with nearly identical stats. I give the edge to Querrey as he'll able to get more cheap points with his serve, so Haas will have a hard time breaking him (he never managed to get a break point against Roddick) and gets the better odds. Worth mentioning is the fact that Haas is up 3-0 in the h2h, but all their meetings were in the earlier weeks of 2007 were Haas was clearly in better shape and in addition to that one of them happened on clay, where Haas clearly has/had the edge over Querrey.

- Rochus/Young: The Rochus match shows clearly that Young is probably one of the most overhyped players on ATP tour. Rochus is nearly 60 ranks ahead of Young. He lost in 2009 to Stakhovsky, Nadal, Ljubicic and Haas with winning over Kunitsyn. Basically Rochus' only match, he should've won was the match against Stakhovsky which he lost in the deciding tie breaker, aside from that he always played (far) superior players. Young's only wins were over two players ranked over 300 and a guy, who isn't even ranked yet. He lost to an aging Spadea, Russell who's ranked 259 and Ryderstedt who's ranked 368, all in straight. So since talent doesn't win you matches, I'm going with the player, who isn't hyped to death.

No odds for Buenos Aires and Bogota out yet.

[meganie]

Sunday 1-0 +1.46
YTD 98-70-13 +23.53u

Adding
Monday
1u Reynolds over Sela +132
1u Johansson over Castano -101

Tuesday/Wednesday
1u Arguello over Montanes +110
1u Bellucci over Granollers -135
1.3u Czink over Foretz -133

[EaglesPhan36]

I think the Arguello bet is one of the best ones in the early rounds this week. Montanes is absolute shit right now. He hasn't won in the 1st round in 7 straight tournaments. Sure, he'll get one at some point, but for plus money - you can't argue with Arguello!

Do disagree on Querrey though. Haas has a great record in Memphis & I just don't get Querrey's record in indoor hard surfaces (12-9) and only 4-6 in his last 10. You figure his massive serve would see him at 60-65% wins on this surface.

[meganie]

Monday/Tuesday 5-5-1 +1.01
(W:Rochus, Arguello, Lopez, Niculescu, Johansson-L:Czink, Bellucci, Reynolds, Santoro, Sugiyama)

YTD 103-75-14 +24.54u

Petzschner-Nieminen, Querrey-Haas matches to be played.

Busy for awhile so won't be around here very often, eagles, if you read this, sorry, no time for picks or the contest this month.

["Sic"]

...Wish you GL with whatever you have going on. Hopefully you find time to make a few post..Peace out

[meganie]

Petzschner-Nieminen, Querrey-Haas matches to be played.

2-0 +2.23

YTD 105-75-14 +26.76u

These odds are too good to pass:
1.5u Kohlschreiber over Ferrer -117
1u Gimeno-Traver over Montanes +135

(Didn't do a lot of analysing there, so better don't follow)

[meganie]

1u Venus/Llagostera Vives OVER 18.5 +104
1u Robredo/Ramirez Hidalgo UNDER 19.5 +113

[RogueScholar]

It has to be good juju to post plays exactly at 4:20! I'll tail those last two, thanks Meganie.

[meganie]

It has to be good juju to post plays exactly at 4:20! I'll tail those last two, thanks Meganie.

Wow, you made exactly 0.04u. (Atleast you/I got your/my money back)
Next time I say I didn't spend much time on researching, better don't tail. Robredo was a H-O-R-R-I-B-L-E choice.

[meganie]

1u Rochus +5 over Querrey -113
1u Muller over Garcia-Lopez -117
1u Muller/Garcia-Lopez UNDER 23 -101
1u Granollers over Vassallo Arguello -129

[meganie]

3-5 -2.23u
YTD 108-80-14 +24.53u

1u Acasuso/Chela OVER 22.5 -112
0.25u Parmentier over Pennetta +430

[meganie]

0-2 -1.25
YTD 108-82-14 +23.27u

1u Acasuso/Robredo OVER 22.5 -106
1u Almagro/Gimeno-Traver OVER 20 -117
1u Venus/Szavay OVER 19.5 -104
1u Cetkovska/Pennetta OVER 20 -106
0.3u Cetkovska over Pennetta +355

[AgainstAllOdds]

Megnie

You have been sliding down a little bit but keep up the good work.

GL today.

[EaglesPhan36]

0-2 -1.25
1u Almagro/Gimeno-Traver OVER 20 -117

I think I like that one a lot.

[meganie]

I think I like that one a lot.

If Gimeno-Traver was playing a little bit better, he'd be great value. Can't believe Almagro is still getting those heavy fav odds, he hasn't shown much lately.

1u Rochus over Koubek +125
1u Gasquet over Ferrer +123

[EaglesPhan36]

21 games for the Almagro match. Nice cashola.

[meganie]

That was entirely calculated.

Cetkovska-Pennetta in the middle of the second set:
6-2 2-0

Cetkovska-Pennetta end result:
6-2 3-6 0-6
Pennetta 43% 1st serves in
Cetkovska 73% 1st serves in

WTA tennis is getting more and more ridiculious.

[meganie]

5u Monfils over Mayer -500
0.5u Simon over Djokovic +210

[meganie]

Damn, forgot to post the Djokovic over (Put it in the spreadsheet yesterday, but forgot), whatever...

Thursday 3-2-1 +1.45
YTD 111-84-15 +24.72u

2.5u Baghdatis over Chardy -142
1u Vassallo Arguello/Almagro OVER 21 -101
1u Benesova over Pennetta +181
0.5u Venus/Zahlavova Strycova OVER 19 -115
0.5u Vassallo Arguello over Almagro +350

Posted
1u Rochus over Koubek +125
1u Gasquet over Ferrer +123

[meganie]

Future bet
0.4u Acasuso to win Acapulco +310

[meganie]

Adding
1u Fish/Serra UNDER 22 -110

[EaglesPhan36]

1u Benesova over Pennetta +181

Excellent value play for me as well.

[meganie]

2u Acasuso over Monfils +124

[meganie]

1.5u Ferrer over Djokovic +164
2u Simon over Berdych -133