meganie's Tennis Picks 2009

**meganie** · 01-28-09, 06:24 AM

Unfortunately Simon didn't take his chances and I was simply impressed by Verdasco, underestimated his mentals a little bit.

Day 10 0-2-0 -2u
YTD 55-37-8 +16.13

Last play of Day 10
6u Bryan/Bryan over Fish/Isner -535

Edit:
Found a -400 line so gonna add
3u Bryan/Bryan over Fish/Isner -400 (betfair)

**meganie** · 01-28-09, 08:51 AM

Updated Day 10 1-2-0 -0.13u
YTD 56-37-8 +18u

Day 11
3u Federer over Roddick -660
2u Dementieva over Williams +105
1.5u Hantuchova/Sugiyama over Dechy/Santangelo -231
1u Zvonareva over Safina -133
0.7u Kubot/Marach over Bhupathi/Knowles +210

Adding
1.5u Federer to have more aces vs. Roddick +167

Adding
Found a -588 line for Fed, which is very kind, so I'm adding another
7u Federer over Roddick -588

**meganie** · 01-29-09, 01:58 PM

Overall not a very good day, Federer serving like a mad man saved me from being minus.
Day 11 3-3 +1.09
YTD 59-40-8 +20.09 (Made a mistake yesterday at calculating, counted a unit loss too much. Was 19.13 before yesterday and 19u, not 18u after yesterday)

Day 12
1u Nadal/Verdasco OVER 34.5 -117

Adding
0.15 Verdasco over Nadal +540

**meganie** · 01-30-09, 04:27 PM

Day 12 1-1 +0.70
YTD 60-41-8 +20.79u

Day 13 & Day 14
No Play.

Pending

Originally posted by meganie

Future bet
2u Federer to win AO +234

**meganie** · 01-31-09, 02:14 PM

Adding
1u Federer UNDER 15.5 Aces -116

**meganie** · 02-02-09, 07:31 AM

AO Day 14 1-1 -1.14u
YTD 61-42-8 +19.65u

Monday
3u Gicquel over Serra -141
1.3u Phau over Garcia-Lopez +134
1u Cilic -5 over Clement -102

**meganie** · 02-07-09, 12:14 AM

Monday 0-2-1 -4.3u
TD 61-44-9 +15.35u

Future bet
2.5u Tsonga to win SA Open -150

**meganie** · 02-07-09, 11:09 AM

Zagreb Semi Final
1u Hernych +4.5 over Ancic +114

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by meganie

Monday 0-2-1 -4.3u
TD 61-44-9 +15.35u

Future bet
2.5u Tsonga to win SA Open -150

I think Tsonga will beat Chardy here, but it looks like a great opportunity maybe to go half a unit on Chardy to maybe even out if there is an upset. No line out yet, but I imagine Chardy will be getting a nice price where you might even still come out ahead if Chardy wins.

**meganie** · 02-07-09, 04:51 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I think Tsonga will beat Chardy here, but it looks like a great opportunity maybe to go half a unit on Chardy to maybe even out if there is an upset. No line out yet, but I imagine Chardy will be getting a nice price where you might even still come out ahead if Chardy wins.

I'm still deciding whether to do that or not. I'm thinking high of Chardy, for some reasons I thought Tsonga facing Ferrer would favor him more (Probably because of Ferrer's playing style vs. Chardy's playing style). On the other hand Tsonga can do everything what Chardy can do, just better and with a lot more firepower. Interesting fact is also that Chardy has never won a match against an other top 100 ranked Frenchmen. Guess with Tsonga's wacko behavior of giving up at least one easy break after being up, I'm looking for the total to come out and probably just play the over. Or play the spread on Chardy. Hmmm...

**meganie** · 02-07-09, 06:07 PM

Vina del Mar
8u Gonzalez over Cuevas -800

I thought long about that one, but decided to play it. Laying 8 to win 1 is much, but I can't see Cuevas winning here. If your opponent doesn't manage to make one single point on your serve an entire set and you still only win by 7-5, there must be something wrong here. Capdeville played abysmal in the second set, his returns were really short or out and the fact, that he managed to hold his serve five times in a row was kind of a miracle. Well, not entirely, Cuevas' backhand didn't look very sharp and he made some rather easy mistakes. He had huge issues in the first set, when Capdeville was dominating and I was surprised to see him winning it, after Capdeville didn't convert his chances. The amount of return points is kind of misleading there, Capdeville had a slow start, but was in control the rest of the set (Well, atleast till the break). Cuevas has a good forehand, he tends to hit loose balls sometimes with his backhand, but none of that convinces me that he can beat Gonzalez. If Gonzalez hits >70% first serves, he'll win that easily.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-07-09, 06:17 PM

Even at -800, that's a good wager on Gonzo. I paid attention to the Cuevas match since I had money on it yesterday and he gave a ton of break opportunities. Gonzo will make him pay like he did with Capdeville. I think if Cuevas serves better, it will be competitive like they played last year at this event - but Gonzao still won going away in 3. GL bro!

**meganie** · 02-07-09, 06:23 PM

I hope, I won't have to see two tie breaks, would make me kind of nervous. Yeah, the Capdeville match was boring,, I think this one will be better to watch.

**meganie** · 02-08-09, 10:32 AM

Saturday 2-0 +2.14
Sunday so far 1-0 +1.67
YTD 64-44-9 +19.16u

Zagreb
2u Cilic over Ancic -191
1u Cilic/Ancic OVER 22.5 -127

Vina del Mar
0.6u Gonzalez/Acasuso UNDER 20.5 +113

**meganie** · 02-08-09, 11:58 AM

Adding
1.5u Gonzalez to win 2-0 -139

**meganie** · 02-08-09, 04:41 PM

Lots of action for Monday/Tuesday.

First rounds
Rotterdam
4u Murray over Ljubicic -700
2u Simon over Kohlschreiber -180
1u Davydenko over Andreev -154
0.7u Benneteau over Lopez +172
0.7u Karlovic over Llodra -118

Costa do Sauipe
1u Gil over Andujar +101
1u Bellucci over Starace +120
1u Arguello over Massu -110
1u Acasuso over Monaco -120
0.5u Dabul over Capdeville +141

San Jose
1u Dent over Reynolds -112
1u Karanusic over Gremelmayr +127
1u Isner over Garcia-Lopez -118
1u Guccione over Canas -111
0.3u Rochus over Kunitsyn +200

Pattaya City
1u Groth (former Gajdosova) over Voskoboeva -133

No lines for Paris out yet.

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-08-09, 07:06 PM

Holy shit man. That is a LARGE card. Only one right away that I know I am against is Karlovic. Llodra has beaten him all three times they played, one of which was in last year's Rotterdam tourney.

**meganie** · 02-08-09, 07:32 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Holy shit man. That is a LARGE card. Only one right away that I know I am against is Karlovic. Llodra has beaten him all three times they played, one of which was in last year's Rotterdam tourney.

Yeah, I know, there are WAY too many matches this week. Especially about even matches. Wasn't quite sure about the Karlovic one, so just small. Karlovic is garbage atm, Llodra is garbage atm, Karlovic is less garbage than Llodra and has bigger serve, so Karlovic it is.

**jayc88** · 02-09-09, 05:40 AM

meganie where did you get -800 on gonzales ?
I got him at -400, but there are a lot of books with shitty lines out there

**meganie** · 02-09-09, 05:50 AM

updated Sunday: 4-1 +3.48
YTD 67-45-9 +20.97u

Paris
1u Kanepi over Medina-Garrigues -119

Originally posted by jayc88

meganie where did you get -800 on gonzales ?
I got him at -400, but there are a lot of books with shitty lines out there

That was against Cuevas.

I didn't play his ML in the final.

**meganie** · 02-09-09, 03:08 PM

1u Haas/Pörschke UNDER 18 -115
1u Nishikori/Muller UNDER 23.5 -107

**losturmarbles** · 02-09-09, 03:15 PM

meganie, thanks for sharing your picks.

**meganie** · 02-09-09, 05:17 PM

1u Nishikori over Muller -111

**meganie** · 02-09-09, 05:52 PM

0.5u Almagro -6 over Hocevar +110

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-10-09, 01:49 AM

Why I haven't tailed you .... pure stupidity.

**j0hnnyv** · 02-10-09, 01:52 AM

I hit on NIshi too, was pleased to see you on it. I got melzer +184 in 5 hours..you like? price is now +200....parlayed the 2 im ready for a big payday if he pulls this off. ferrer is garbage right now and especially on this indoor surface...lost 4 straight i believe and played SA last week?

i hope it hits.... im nervous u staying away from this one..GL

**meganie** · 02-10-09, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by j0hnnyv

I hit on NIshi too, was pleased to see you on it. I got melzer +184 in 5 hours..you like? price is now +200....parlayed the 2 im ready for a big payday if he pulls this off. ferrer is garbage right now and especially on this indoor surface...lost 4 straight i believe and played SA last week?

i hope it hits.... im nervous u staying away from this one..GL

Hard to predict how Melzer will play. He has the game to take out Ferrer, but I don't know, if he'll show up or not. I'd take Melzer over ~+230. Ferrer is not that garbage anymore, beat Baghdatis, was ok against Querrey, but lost because he was to stupid to win. Chardy is on a hot streak, wouldn't count that loss too high.

**meganie** · 02-10-09, 07:01 AM

Monday 8-3 +4.21
YTD 75-48-9 +25.18u

Still pending:
First rounds
Rotterdam
4u Murray over Ljubicic -700
2u Simon over Kohlschreiber -180
0.7u Karlovic over Llodra -118

Costa do Sauipe
1u Gil over Andujar +101
1u Bellucci over Starace +120
1u Acasuso over Monaco -120
0.5u Dabul over Capdeville +141

San Jose
1u Karanusic over Gremelmayr +127
1u Isner over Garcia-Lopez -118
1u Guccione over Canas -111

Adding
Paris
0.8u Makarova over Hantuchova +166

**meganie** · 02-10-09, 09:23 AM

Rotterdam
0.5u Gasquet -4 over Mathieu +115

San Jose
1u Hewitt over Fish -122

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Why I haven't tailed you .... pure stupidity.

And if you did that in the AO semi finals/finals, you would've gone 1-4. Bad streaks happen.

**meganie** · 02-10-09, 05:06 PM

Costa do Sauipe
1u Gimeno-Traver over Kubot -135

Adding
0.8u Roddick/Ryderstedt UNDER 18 +100

**meganie** · 02-10-09, 09:26 PM

Adding for tomorrow:
1u Kleybanova over Radwanska +190
0.7u Baghdatis over Querrey -130

**jayc88** · 02-11-09, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by meganie

Adding for tomorrow:
1u Kleybanova over Radwanska +190
0.7u Baghdatis over Querrey -130

with ya on kleybanova,
gl with your plays today/tomorrow

**EaglesPhan36** · 02-11-09, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by meganie

And if you did that in the AO semi finals/finals, you would've gone 1-4. Bad streaks happen.

Your streaks seem short though. Mine tend to get messy. Started 1-6. Had a nice groove in the Aussie Open and now, I'm back in the shitter. I'd go with Baghdatis, but my current book has him at -150 and that's not great value in that match for me. GL, I'm sure you'll kill it after an off end to I think a plus day still overall for you.

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 06:12 AM

Haha, great day, Dabul was winning, Capdeville retired, Karanusic was up a break and a set, lost tie break and match, Roddick won first set 6-0 (!!!), still lost the under and Gasquet, I don't have to say anything. Lots of back door covers...for the opposite.

Tuesday 5-6-1 -0.38u
YTD 80-54-10 +24.80u

1u Guccione/Stepanek OVER 23 -108

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Your streaks seem short though. Mine tend to get messy. Started 1-6. Had a nice groove in the Aussie Open and now, I'm back in the shitter. I'd go with Baghdatis, but my current book has him at -150 and that's not great value in that match for me. GL, I'm sure you'll kill it after an off end to I think a plus day still overall for you.

I tend to chase losing days, which is not a good behavior. You'll do better, Baghdatis is a good start, though you'll get probably better odds at the end of the day, he moved from -130 to -120 at Pinny.

**meganie** · 02-11-09, 06:28 AM

Adding
1u Ferrer over Youzhny -170