meganie's Tennis Picks 2009

[meganie]

Wow, great day 2-5-1 -2.8u with Federer match to be played.
Querrey's consistency is so overrated...

Overall 19-17-2 +0.41u

[meganie]

20-17-2 +0.77

2.5u Ancic over Odesnik -530
1u Stakhovsky over Clement -104
1u Hewitt over Gonzalez +110 (Don't see much value at minus odds though)
0.5u Melzer over Nishikori -101
0.2u Schwank over Haas +202

1.5u Lisicki over Wozniak -128
1u Gajdosova over Razzano +111
0.5u Bremond over Vaidisova +180
0.5u Malek over Morita +151
0.5u Schiavone over Peng -102

[meganie]

Today 5-5 +0.1u
YTD 25-22-2 +0.87u

Unfortunately no dog I really like for tomorrow, so mostly (heavy) favs.

10u Roddick over Malisse -645
2u Safin over Garcia-Lopez -336
2u Safarova over Erakovic -206
1u Fish over Bolelli -140
1u Errani over Niculescu -206
0.5u Roddick 3-0 -150
0.3u Tipsarevic over Cilic +185
0.3u Dokic over Chakvetadze +176

[EaglesPhan36]

The only one I really could say I disagree with is Cilic losing. I think Cilic has a shot of moving deep in this tourney, at least until he runs into Del Potro. No real opinions on the others as I don't like much today for the prices I pay.

[meganie]

The only one I really could say I disagree with is Cilic losing. I think Cilic has a shot of moving deep in this tourney, at least until he runs into Del Potro. No real opinions on the others as I don't like much today for the prices I pay.

Yeah, no real dogs worth playing, this play was made because of two reasons: First, you never know, what you get from Tipsy and I'm hoping for a good day, second, recent stats of Cilic doesn't look very good to me. His opponents always had tons of break chances and pretty many return points for a guy with his serve. It's just <1/3u so more of a value play, than really believing in Tipsy stepping up.

Can't say I really like his play lately. He does have an easy draw though, but don't think he has a chance against Del Potro.

Who do you got for the quarter final spots?
Gotta go with Nadal-Simon, Murray-?(I really don't know, could be Tsonga/Gulbis/Blake), winner of Soderling/Baghdatis-Roddick, Del Potro-Federer

Found much better odds for Roddick winning 3-0. So I'm adding
1u Roddick 3-0 -105

[EaglesPhan36]

Quarters, I had:

Nadal, Ancic
Murray, Blake or Tsonga (Tsonga if healthy)
Nalbandian,Baghdatis
Federer,Del Potro

As you see, I went for some upsets. I didn't like Simon's play coming into this tourney, so I went with the youngster in Ancic. Liked Nalbandian's play leading in, so I think I took him over Roddick - although Roddick looks very fit! Del Potro-Federer seemed easiest to predict if both play well.

[meganie]

Quarters, I had:

Nadal, Ancic
Murray, Blake or Tsonga (Tsonga if healthy)
Nalbandian,Baghdatis
Federer,Del Potro

As you see, I went for some upsets. I didn't like Simon's play coming into this tourney, so I went with the youngster in Ancic. Liked Nalbandian's play leading in, so I think I took him over Roddick - although Roddick looks very fit! Del Potro-Federer seemed easiest to predict if both play well.

Looks reasonable, I'm not too sure about Simon either. I'm hoping for some consistency from Monfils, this guy could be such a great player, if he didn't always have those let downs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah it's definitely Monfils or Ancic in that part of the bracket, especially since Youzhny flaked.

[meganie]

Yesterday 6-2 +3.05
(Counted the two Roddick 3-0 plays as one loss, because same event, for those wondering)

YTD 31-24-2 +3.92u

3u Tsonga over Ljubicic -435
3u Haas over Cipolla -355
1u Melzer over Beck -191
1u Razzano over Schnyder +140
1u Czink over Zheng +197
0.3u Bremond over Bondarenko +260

[meganie]

Day 5

Especially for today's matches I noticed some big line movements, after I took them yesterday, so gonna post them earlier. For tomorrow I have:

5u Zvonareva over Errani -580
3u Cilic over Ferrer -133
0.5u Lu over Robredo +243
0.25u Sugiyama over Jankovic +800

[EaglesPhan36]

1u Czink over Zheng +197

I like that one, might even play it.

[meganie]

Adding
0.5u Gulbis -4 over Andreev -123
1u Murray -9.5 over Granollers -119

[EaglesPhan36]

Tough beat on Gulbis bro. I thought he was the right play, but the straight up price I saw was way off at -195 or more heading into the match. My James Blake theory of making a run might hold though. He owns Andreev. Price is around -180 though, so unless it comes down, it's a no play for me. GL today with your selections.

[meganie]

Day 4 5-3 +2.5
YTD 36-27-2 +6.42

Day 6 (Tomorrow)
3u Simon over Ancic -175
1.5u Monfils over Almagro -335
1u Verdasco over Stepanek -140
0.8u Medina-Garrigues over Pennetta +202
0.5u Gonzalez over Gasquet -115

Have another play on the men's side, but waiting for line movement.

Might come back with some totals/spreads for today's matches.

Tough beat on Gulbis bro. I thought he was the right play, but the straight up price I saw was way off at -195 or more heading into the match. My James Blake theory of making a run might hold though. He owns Andreev. Price is around -180 though, so unless it comes down, it's a no play for me. GL today with your selections.

You win, you lose. Not a big deal, I knew, why I didn't like the idea of playing Gulbis as big fav. Was lucky with the Murray play though, Granollers played like in the third. Hope you do well too, Blake seems like a good play, don't like the price either, but he should sweep Andreev in three.

[meganie]

Adding
1u Roddick/Santoro UNDER 31 -124
1u Wawrinka/Berdych OVER 40.5 -119

1u Sugiyama +6.5 vs. Jankovic -130

[meganie]

Day 5 4-3 +2.95
YTD 40-30-2 +9.37u

Day 6
Posted
3u Simon over Ancic -175
1.5u Monfils over Almagro -335
1u Verdasco over Stepanek -140
0.8u Medina-Garrigues over Pennetta +202
0.5u Gonzalez over Gasquet -115

Adding two value bets
0.25u Sela over Tsonga +698
0.1u Haas over Nadal +1100

[EaglesPhan36]

I'm against your top play today bro. I also am considering Stepanek over Verdasco. Head-2-head, Stepanek has won all three including just a couple weeks ago. Not sure if I will take it though - Verdasco has played well here, but against small time competition with poor serves. Stepanek is a definite step up. Tough match to call.

[meganie]

I'm against your top play today bro. I also am considering Stepanek over Verdasco. Head-2-head, Stepanek has won all three including just a couple weeks ago. Not sure if I will take it though - Verdasco has played well here, but against small time competition with poor serves. Stepanek is a definite step up. Tough match to call.

At least one of us will win then.
Simon is better in every part of the game, except for the serve. Since Simon is a pretty good returner, I don't think that's a huge advantage for Ancic. He has done pretty well against big servers recently and he's the better overall player.

Stepanek didn't play particularly well so far, have the feeling he's not fully fit since he retired. If Verdasco doesn't f around, he should take it, only issue (and the reason why I never ever play Verdasco as a big fav) is his head. If he doesn't lose his composure and doesn't get irritated by the clown behavior of Stepanek, he'll win that in three or four.

[EaglesPhan36]

Agree on Verdasco's mental state. Stepanek is about the same. Reason I went against Simon is that I just wasn't impressed with his form before Melbourne. He's been pretty solid here, but hasn't really had a test. I guess I'm just waiting to see if he's really a Top 15-ish player or if last year was a blip on the radar before I would back him in 2009.

[single shaker]

for me this round the sure bet has to be monfils, i just dont see how he can lose to almagro, -410 is kind of steep.

my book offers verdasco at -165 so no play for me there. verdasco too much of the choke artist.

my second play is gasquet at +125, gonzo has not impressed me so far, and i feel that gasquet would like to play somebody in outhitting match.

blake does own andreev but blake at -240 is not a value bet.

so to summize:

monfils -410 to win 1 unit
gasquet +125 to win 1 unit

[meganie]

for me this round the sure bet has to be monfils, i just dont see how he can lose to almagro, -410 is kind of steep.

my book offers verdasco at -165 so no play for me there. verdasco too much of the choke artist.

my second play is gasquet at +125, gonzo has not impressed me so far, and i feel that gasquet would like to play somebody in outhitting match.

blake does own andreev but blake at -240 is not a value bet.

so to summize:

monfils -410 to win 1 unit
gasquet +125 to win 1 unit

Today is kind of the day of chokers: Blake, Andreev, Verdasco, Gonzalez, Gasquet.

I would never bet on Blake on anything less than -150. Same thing with Verdasco, until he proves me wrong and shows some consistency.

The Verdasco pick is kind of borderline, I was lucky to play it yesterday, when he opened at -140. With current price -165, it'd be a no play for me.

Same thing with Gonzalez, the only reason I took it is because Gasquet played like in the first two rounds.

Monfils is kind of a headcase, he was in control of the whole match vs. Koubek and Koubek still managed to win a set. Partly very sloppy play from Monfils, but had the feeling that he didn't play full, when he needed to step up, he did it (well, except for the one set). And Almagro is currently about on the same level as Koubek on hard court.

Agree on Verdasco's mental state. Stepanek is about the same. Reason I went against Simon is that I just wasn't impressed with his form before Melbourne. He's been pretty solid here, but hasn't really had a test. I guess I'm just waiting to see if he's really a Top 15-ish player or if last year was a blip on the radar before I would back him in 2009.

I admit, I don't know very much about Stepanek's mental strength. Just watched him in Metz, in Paris vs. Tsonga and Gicquel and against Federer in Madrid (?), so can't say much. Just know that he basically choked away the Tsonga match and nearly did the same vs. Gicquel.

I wasn't impressed with Simon's form before the Guccione match either, but I think the stats show that he's getting better in form. His 1st serve percentage is slowly getting better also, if you remember the match vs. Gasquet (where he had about 40% first serves or so). Maybe I'm a bit biased here, but Ancic didn't impress me against Karlovic and against Djokovic he showed flashes of very good/brilliant tennis, but his inability to convert his 14 or so breakpoints and Simon's clutch play at key points make me think that Simon is the right pick here.

This will be a funny night, I could 1-6 or 5-2 with the amount on chokers on my list...

Adding
0.5u Melzer/Murray OVER 30 -110
0.5u Blake/Andreev UNDER 39.5 -105
0.5u Azarenka/Mauresmo UNDER 20.5 -109

[EaglesPhan36]

Well, I took Gonzalez as my other pick for today - so with you there. If he serves like he did against Canas, he should advance. Gasquet's losses have the same recipe - facing a big server who wins about 70% of his serving points and then Gasquet's own serve gets beaten down. Hopefully he plays more like the 1st round when he really struggled. I think Gonzo might be on a roll now after making it through the difficult Hewitt match.

[meganie]

Let's cash the Gonzalez play

Fine to see, you're doing better now. Even though I don't post so much in your thread, I appreciate your write-ups. I don't always agree with you, but it's always interesting to see what you think. Keep up the good work.

[meganie]

Gasquet is driving me crazy, everytime I bet on him, he disappoints and everytime I bet against him, he shows up like he could beat every player on the tour.
Well, atleast from a fan perspective it's good to see he's doing well, I simply love his back hand.

Edit:
Wow, that was an unbelievable win for Gonzalez, didn't expect it after Gasquet dominated that much.

[meganie]

Though Gonzalez won, it was still the wrong choice, Gasquet was the better player overall and if he hadn't done a classic french choke job, he'd have won that in straight.

Day 6 7-3 +5.01
YTD 47-33-2 +14.38

Day 7
5u Roddick over Robredo -390
5u Federer over Berdych -1000
2.5u Del Potro over Cilic -194
1u Zvonareva over Petrova -140

No dog today, I thought about Baghdatis, but the price wasn't high enough and moved even more since then (He opened at +350 or so).

[meganie]

Adding
1u Djokovic/Baghdatis OVER 38 -108
0.5u Roddick/Robredo UNDER 35.5 -101

[meganie]

Day 7 6-0 +5.21u first sweep oty
YTD 53-33-2 +19.59u

Day 8
1u Blake over Tsonga +175
1u Kuznetsova over Zheng -148
1u Simon over Monfils -102
1u Simon/Monfils OVER 40.5 -105
0.6u Murray/Verdasco OVER 33 -111
0.6u Williams -3.5 over Azarenka -108

[EaglesPhan36]

Blake!


I actually think I like Monfils over Simon, although not enough to make a bet on it. That is definitely a toss-up match. That over 40.5 looks solid there. That match easily goes 4 sets and perhaps 5. Just have to hope you get a lot of 6-4 or better sets, which you would figure might be the case with how even they are.

[meganie]

Blake!


I actually think I like Monfils over Simon, although not enough to make a bet on it. That is definitely a toss-up match. That over 40.5 looks solid there. That match easily goes 4 sets and perhaps 5. Just have to hope you get a lot of 6-4 or better sets, which you would figure might be the case with how even they are.

I rate Monfils is more talented than Simon concerning pure tennis skills, no doubt, but Monfils didn't play particular well in this tournament, one set lost to Koubek (mostly because of his lack of concentration), 34% allowed points on return against an out-of-form Almagro, 37% allowed return points against an unknown Argentinian, these are not good signs. However, I rate Simon's clutch mentality over any of Monfils' talents. I doubted Simon's form before the Ancic match a bit, but with his straight sets win, I think he's capable of beating Monfils, who is known for his inconsistency. This is probably gonna be a tight match, the only way I see Monfils win is in three or four sets, Simon should take it, if they play five.

However, good to see you turned things around, let's hope that Blake shows some good tennis.

[off-topic]Which moron planned the schedule for today?
Azarenka plays singles after Simon/Monfils and her doubles match is scheduled as the fourth match after three doubles. If the Simon/Monfils goes to five sets, which is not so unlikely, she might not be able to play doubles?![/off-topic]

[meganie]

Day 8
1u Blake over Tsonga +175
1u Kuznetsova over Zheng -148
1u Simon over Monfils -102
1u Simon/Monfils OVER 40.5 -105
0.6u Murray/Verdasco OVER 33 -111
0.6u Williams -3.5 over Azarenka -108

This is freaking unreal, had six picks and four of them voided because of retirement.

Day 8 1-0-4 +0.54 with Blake/Tsonga match to be played.
YTD 54-33-6 +20.13

Day 9
1u Roddick over Djokovic +210
1u Roddick/Djokovic OVER 39.5 -111
1u Safina/Dokic UNDER 20 -105

[meganie]

Updated Day 8 1-1-4 -0.46
YTD 54-34-6 +19.13

Future bet
2u Federer to win AO +234

[meganie]

1u Roddick over Djokovic +210
1u Roddick/Djokovic OVER 39.5 -111

And here we go again. Screwed three times now in two days betting on the player who actually doesn't retire and leading.

Got my money on the Roddick ML since I played it at Pinny, but can't really count it as a win, since I'm playing at different books.

Counted the Safina/Dokic Total as a loss.

Day 9 0-1-2 -1u
YTD 54-35-7 +18.13u

Adding
4u Federer over Del Potro -400

[meganie]

Updated Day 9 1-1-2 0u
YTD 55-35-8 +19.13u

Day 10
1u Nadal NOT to win 3-0 +143 (if someone is wondering about the odds, you get these at betfair)

Curious how much Federer's odds for the Roddick match will get pounded. Predicting, he'll end up at least -900.

[EaglesPhan36]

I can't see it going much more than -700 if that. Sure Federer destroyed Del Potro, but that's an inexperienced Slam player. I think Roddick will get some action the bigger his price tag goes just because a lot of people will ride the hype of the new training regimen, wearing down the world #3, etc. Honestly if the head-2-head were anywhere near competitive, the price would be interesting to see.

[meganie]

He started at -660 at Pinny. Could move a lot though.

Adding
1u Tsonga -3.5 over Verdasco -102

Don't like the Tsonga ML at all, but that seems quite ok. If Tsonga wins, he'll win that in 3 or 4, can't see him surviving a five-setter against a fitter player with the heat.