meganie's Tennis Picks 2009

[meganie]

Starting with
0.6u Darcis over Lu -130
1u Gicquel over Calleri -167
1.2u Keothavong over Razzano +120
1u Dulko over Zheng +135

[meganie]

Adding
4u Safina over Dushevina -625

Edit:
Adding
0.5u Montanes over Isner +190
Quite surprising odds for Isner. Anyone know about an injury or something like that?

["Sic"]

Keothavong from +120 down to -120 at my book....And Montanes all the way down to +155

[meganie]

Keothavong from +120 down to -120 at my book....And Montanes all the way down to +155

Yeah, obviously I wasn't the only one, who was very surprised by these odds, especially the Montanes one. Darcis and Gicquel also went down a bit, while Dulko now has better odds.

I won't play Guccione and Granollers, but I think there's maybe some value in it, no way would I back Gulbis at ~-400 against any player or Berdych at ~-300 with his recent results.

["Sic"]

will be playing Keothvang for sure...wish I would have gotten it at + odds

["Sic"]

Darcis down 0-2 but fought back to 3-3 in the first set

Now 4-3 Darcis

[jayc88]

i'm on keotharong and granollers today
gl

[meganie]

Uuurgghs...Darcis was a horrible choice, the guy needs to improve his serve, if he actually wants to win ATP-matches.

Must have mixed something up, got Keothavong actually at +110, not +120, my bad sorry.

@jayc88
GL to you too.

["Sic"]

Montanes in a tie break...Will I lose two matches today to tie Breaks?

F*** lost my first two matches in tie breaks

[meganie]

Montanes in a tie break...Will I lose two matches today to tie Breaks?

F*** lost my first two matches in tie breaks

Yeah, me too, not a good start.
Which one was your first pick?

["Sic"]

Game Isner won...wow

This is hilarious..I could throw rocks all ****ing day and still not hit the broad side of a barn

[meganie]

3-3 +0.29u
Not the world's best start, but I take it, after being down 0-2.

For today I took
1u Robredo over Ancic -120
0.3u Bolelli over Tsonga +300
1u Nieminen over Guccione -167
0.5u Tipsarevic over Hewitt +170 -> took it earlier, no value right now at ~+120 imo
0.8u Del Potro over Gulbis -167
1u Djokovic over Mathieu -370 -> call me crazy for taking Djokovic right now, but if he doesn't get past Mathieu who had great trouble beating Seppi, there must be something wrong with him...

[EaglesPhan36]

GL. Don't like the big # on Djokovic, but that is personal preference for me on singles matches.

[meganie]

Adding
0.5u Ljubicic over Gonzalez +165

And an AO qualifying match:
0.8u Phau over Smeets -200

GL. Don't like the big # on Djokovic, but that is personal preference for me on singles matches.

I'd agree with you, if Djokovic was playing someone like Simon or Santoro or anyone with some kind of fighting spirit, but Mathieu is not exactly the kind of player who takes advantage of other player's slumps and fights his way through. Could be a three setter, but no way am I thinking that Mathieu wins that one. If it goes to a third set, Mathieu chokes. (If I am wrong with that one, I may just dig myself into a hole and disappear...and Djokovic should do the same)

[Tennispro]

Don't worry Djoko won't lose the first one cos he is upset about the Gulbis defeat and i think he is gonna play the first 3 matches good then fade a lil bit to rest for australian.

[meganie]

Don't worry Djoko won't lose the first one cos he is upset about the Gulbis defeat and i think he is gonna play the first 3 matches good then fade a lil bit to rest for australian.

Well, let's hope you're right.
Nice to see we're on the same side with Robredo.

[meganie]

Tipsarevic is looking good right now.
These Serbian "fans" are annoying as hell, behaving like soccer fans, cheering every error Hewitt makes and screaming between every point.

[meganie]

Tipsarevic is looking good right now.

Lost 7-5 after leading 5-2 in the first set.

7-7 -0.26u

Last minute play
2u Kohlschreiber over Ferrero -210

[meganie]

8-7 +0.69

3u Del Potro over Troicki -350
3u Djokovic over Ancic -430

Yeah I know, both heavy favs, I try to avoid them especially before a grand slam, but both of them played really well yesterday. I've got some other matches I like, but waiting for some line movement.

I thought about Verdasco over Federer, because Roger didn't play well against Moya and Verdasco played some fine tennis, but knowing how Verdasco's mind works, he'd probably take one set at best and choke when it counts.

And an AO qualifying match:
0.5u Ouanna over Sweeting -118

[Shark79]

Del Potro ... good play

[meganie]

These are the matches I'm/I was waiting for the line to move:

1u Almagro over Querrey +120: This match could be ugly to watch, both didn't have good results recently. As tennispro stated in his thread, Almagro was bad, yes, he was, but I thought he still had some decent ground strokes and played a little better in the third set. This is a 50/50 match for me and it could go either way so I'm taking the better odds.

0.8u Ferrer over Kohlschreiber +134: Yes, I'm taking the player with the worse results lately, no, I haven't completely lost my mind. Kohlschreiber (and I, because I backed him) was very lucky to get past Ferrero yesterday. He played well in the early first set, but strangely produced one error after another later on. Ferrero broke him in the third set, but gifted Kohlschreiber his service game with horrendous play and a double fault. I saw Kohlschreiber twice going into a third set, the other match was against Wawrinka and both times I had the feeling that he had some fitness issues. I also saw some parts of Ferrer's match and I thought that he played better than the end of last year, he still had many errors, but looked improved. This is a 45/55 match for me, I don't think that Kohlschreiber wins as easily as he did in Paris.

1u Baghdatis over Ljubicic even: This obviously only should be played at a bookmaker who returns the money after retirements. Ljubicic was terrible against Gonzalez and if I say terrible I mean it. His movement was nonexistent and I didn't see him hitting too many shots that actually stayed inside the other side of the court. Every time he had to defend shots, he hit it nowhere. The only reason that kept him alive was his serve. Baghdatis didn't have a good match either, but what I saw was still much better. The only thing I fear is that it is going into a third set because of Baghdatis' injury history, but with the way Ljubicic plays right now, there shouldn't be too many rallys. I think Baghdatis should be about -120 fav here, since he isn't, I'm going to stick with him.

The odds of Almagro's and Ferrer's matches are moving the other way right now and I could understand everyone who fades them, these picks are mostly based on visual impressions. I could go 0-3 or 3-0, because these players are somehow unreliable, so I'm taking what I think is value.

Del Potro ... good play

Yup, good to see we're on the same page.
He's currently one the most reliable players, when it comes to beating mid ranked players. Kind of poor man's Roddick.

[Tennispro]

Gl meganie on Almagro and Ferrer i am giving the edge to Querrey and Kohly but don't worry yesterday i gave the edge to all the underdogs and you know how that turned out.
So i am liking the pics even if they don't hit, take the value cos it's gonna be a coin flip.

[meganie]

Kohlschreiber withdrew with a shoulder injury.

Thought long about that one, but after looking into some stats and results, I believe this is the right pick. Odds are just too good to pass.
0.6u Nalbandian over Hewitt -170

[meganie]

Djokovic match still not finished due to rain delay, but up one set and break. Consider it a win, if he loses, I change my record.

12-9 +2.1u

3u Moya over Ljubicic -105
3u Cilic over Baghdatis -154
1u Del Potro over Söderling -154

I'm considering to take Ferrer, if he hits near even. His odds are right now about -130 or lower, but I'm pretty sure they'll change a lot during the day.

And two picks, I thought I liked, but not sure, because of the h2h:
Gasquet over Nalbandian
Wawrinka over Gonzalez
Might just wait for some movement and decide than. Anyone an opinion on these?

[Tennispro]

Like the pics, only 2 suggestions don't go for Ferrer lol Querrey looks much hungrier for this atp, Ferrer to me is just happy he got the points with playing just 1 match and just wants to get this over with.
Seconde is Gasquet i love how he stepped up his game and is playing some good tennis, but so is fatty and he leads 6-0 h2h so i just don't see him winning here.
GL and love the Del Potro play.

[meganie]

I love the Moya and Cilic picks, so much value left in them imo. Ljubicic is in such a poor form, that he has trouble with every shot he has to move for, I don't know what's wrong with this guy, his movement is abysmal right now. Also can't remember him giving up his serve that easily as did against Baghdatis, think he did it 3 or 4 times and nearly every time he was up 40-15 or so.

For Cilic-Baghdatis, Cilic didn't play bad, not too good either, but he should beat Baghdatis with ease. I think the guy is just happy to finish matches, played way below his standard and had trouble with getting his first serve in.

For Nalbandian-Gasquet, that's what my feeling tells (oh well I was totally wrong with it with Almagro), Nalbandian choked twice on serving out both sets, luckily he still won, but Gasquet is a fine player and Nalbandian has a bad record on matches the week before a grand slam. I wouldn't have been surprised, if he had lost today, if it weren't against Hewitt, commentator said something about history between them. Only thing that worries me is the h2h.

Gotta think about Ferrer, maybe he just waits for the clay season to come. But Querrey is definitely beatable, honestly I don't think the guy has much more than his serve right now and you know, Ferrer is still a good returner.

Who do you got (I mean besides Del Potro obviously )?

Edit: Found Pinny line for Gasquet at +174. Hmm, Gasquet gets better odds as Hewitt did, that's strange. Must be because of the h2h, I guess.

And Pinny has Ferrer at -141, could move a lot.

Made up my mind adding
0.4u Gasquet over Nalbandian +190

[meganie]

Adding
0.8u Ferrer over Querrey -124

All picks can be found on my spreadsheet.

[EaglesPhan36]

Great price on Del Potro.

[meganie]

Great price on Del Potro.

Yup,took it immediately after I saw the odds coming out. Cool that we both believe in Ferrer.

[meganie]

Marin pulled a Cilic, so I'm right now
14-12 +1.41u

Gonna go with
4u Del Potro over Querrey -500
1u Verdasco over Gonzalez -133

[HeeeHAWWWW]

How's Ferrer playing? I'm relucant, having made a small fortune betting on him to lose repeatedly at the end of last year. Hard to get out of a profitable habit :-)

[meganie]

Played much better than last year's end, but any Top 20, not named Almagro could beat him easily 9 times out of 10. His serve is so weak, that even Karlovic could hit a winner out of it, he also struggled with getting his serves in. Not to mention that he makes too many forced error right now. If you get some pressure on him, good chance he'll hit the ball right into the net or out or at best too short. His return looks sharp though, forced Querrey into some double faults. And his movement is good as usual, managed to get some impossible balls back.

[meganie]

16-12 +2.96u

Last minute pick
2u Federer over Wawrinka -800
Call me crazy for taking those odds for a guy, who isn't intangible anymore in an exhibition match, but I really do believe that Fed wins that in straight. Not too long time ago Wawrinka lost against Cipolla and just because he won against a reconvalescent Baghdatis and a don't-care Gonzalez doesn't mean he's back into his old form. (Of course, if Fed loses, I'm gonna look like a complete tool...)

[meganie]

17-12 +3.21

1u Benneteau over Baghdatis +143
1u Keothavong over Chakvetadze +202
1u Lu over Bellucci -120
1u Errani over Kirilenko -150
1u Querrey over Kohlschreiber +138
0.8u Llodra over Malisse +103
0.8u Nieminen over Mathieu -125
0.5u Moya over Korolev -147

Most odds are from Pinny.

Edit:
Adding
1.5u parlay Roddick 3-0/Federer/Troicki -417

[EaglesPhan36]

Querrey & Niemenen


GL.