Well never mind, the over shall come unto me regardless. Awesome is my middle name.
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So... what are we bitching about again?Comment -
Dolgpolov being a tool .. as usual, but Becker bent over one time to let him back in briefly. It was kind of them to appease me.Comment -
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Overall Profit: +3.66Comment -
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The super breaker, they were knotted at 5 and then they couldn't win a damn point to save themselves and got run out the breaker.Comment -
EP...whaddya think of this?
...does this hold any water?Comment -
June 14th
ATP Halle Parlay: Haas + Kohlschreiber [+106]
ATP Queens Club: Hewitt +180
ATP Halle: Gasquet-Mayer Under 22.5 [-118]
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Adding ...
ATP Queens Club: Murray_Becker Under 20 [-120]Comment -
I took a shot with Mayer, I knew I shudnt have and wouldnt have if I saw your under pick.
Nice start so far EP. Climbing on your Murray under pick and everytime i jump on your late picks they lose , so im going to say sorry before hand.Comment -
Thing with Gasquet-Mayer today was I think a lot of people put their stock in last year's Wimbledon match where Mayer won, but the grass plays much different in Halle .. much quicker, which suits Gasquet's game better. I have found riding unders sometimes is a decent option vs. taking a massive ML for a favorite into a parlay, etc. Doesn't always work, but for me it is a better option most times.Comment -
Too bad Hewitt can't play Grass Court tennis all season = beastie.Comment -
Lleyton looks to be on his way to a third impressive victory this week. Always been a big fan of the guy, and glad to see him back at the top of his game. I think he'll have a great chance against Cilic tomorrowComment -
Ya I'll be riding Hewitt until he plays Murray
Nice job again ep stay hotComment -
Guess Kohlschreiber wasn't interested in playing any more.
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Murray also looks like he's going to do his best to blow the under. Should have ran away with the first set by a bigger margin, but yacked up one of his breaks. Doing the same in the 2nd set. Be lucky if it pushes.Comment -
Blown. Bah.Comment -
You know its a fukked up day in tennis when Francesca Schiavone is on the verge of making a semi final on grass.Comment -
Overall Profit: +4.26
Still charging forward thanks to Hewitt.Comment -
June 15th
ATP Queens Club Doubles: Zimonjic-Benneteau -125
ATP Halle: Haas +3 [+110]
ATP Queens Club: Murray-Tsonga Over 23 [-115]
*Every thing on Saturday is either risking 0.5 unit or to win 0.5 unit. At the point where you don't give back a good week of work on the weekend.
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Curious why youre passing on hewittComment -
Match is a toss-up. Think there are better edges in other matches. If Cilic and Hewitt played ten times on grass, it'd probably be 5-5 or 6-4, but who it would favor is anyone's guess.
I watched some of the Del Potro-Hewitt match and Del Potro just looked disinterested for the two sets he dropped. Hewitt has played well, but I think he's also taken advantage of two guys in Dimitrov & Del Potro who are lacking severely in the mental area right now when they step on the court.
He may very well win just as he did in the Olympics last year, but again I don't see an easy pick in that match on either side.Comment -
Overall Profit: +4.69Comment -
Mini-preview for the Dutch Grass tourney. Looking at Eastbourne later.
ATP s-Hertogenbosch
Ferrer headlines as the defending champ at a tournament he has dominated. 12-1 all time. He has won it two of the three times he has entered. Wawrinka is the #2 seed with Isner and Paire rounding out the top four seeds here.
Ferrer Quarter
Ferrer will be tested first up against Malisse who is a solid grass court player. Baghdatis is lined up in the bottom of the quarter to be the roadblock to the semis. If Ferrer gets by Malisse, should be no reason not to expect a semifinal run.
Isner Quarter
This quarter isn't particularly taxing for Isner if he shows up in the mood to play deep into the week. Donskoy first-up and then maybe Haase. Bottom of the quarter has Gimeno-Traver and Berankis + others. Really not an attractive quarter at all.
Wawrinka Quarter
Wawrinka gets Sjisling to start. The Dutchman didn't play poorly this past week @ Queens Club and the surface is not one that has been kind to Wawrinka (10-16 lifetime). Wawrinka is a prime upset victim IMO here against a home stander. If Wawrinka loses, the quarter opens up with Chardy the other seed and a couple wildcards in Copil and de Bakker who are more dirt rats than grass heads. If Sjisling springs that upset, he just might be the semifinalist here. Chardy could sneak through, but he's not a great player on this surface.
Paire Quarter
Paire got punked out in the 1st round last week at Queens Club. He draws fellow Frog Llodra first. The key question, was Llodra full of shit with his hamstring injury last week or not? If he was, he could provide a stern test. I expect Paire to improve from his first up last week, but it's Frog v. Frog and that's tough to predict. The winner should be favored to go through as the rest of the quarter is full of chuckleheads like Hanescu, Garcia-Lopez, Brands and more. Goffin is the 2nd rounder for the Paire-Llodra winner. This quarter is full of guys who have driven gambler's to drink. I would avoid sides and maybe look at totals.
Prognosis: For any futures players, Ferrer will be the shortest price, but probably the smartest given his form and ability to switch to Grass without suffering much. Paire could be worth considering if you trust him to improve over last week's pathetic display. The bottom portion of the draw might yield a good long shot try.
From a match-by-match betting view, there looks like there will be a lot of oddball match-ups here against non-Grass types. Being the week before Wimbledon, dig deep on motivation before you dive behind someone. Guys like Ferrer and Isner should be looking for form as this is their only tune-up. If an unexpected guy moves deep, he might be worth backing every time as his motivation to pick up a title might trump anyone else's motivation.
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I agree with potential value in Malisse and Sijsling. Also: Llodra vs Paire – AGAIN!? FK me...
"... driven gambler's [sic] to drink" meaning match-fixing, I presume.
And as always, a pleasure to read. Thank you so very much for continually feeding us with these! : )Comment -
Yeah man that 3rd Quarter (Paire's) has two total assholes along those possible fixing lines in Hanescu & Brands who both have the talent to beat top tier guys, but often either melt under the pressure or melt more gold into their bank accounts. And then any time you have two French players, ick. Usually the only decent bet there is overs - but with the injury possibility on Llodra, probably a fantastic match to SKIP altogether if you value your sanity.Comment -
ATP Eastbourne
Watch for someone not in the top four seeds to be a factor and win this tournament. Roddick took it as the #6 last year. Seppi in 2011 was unseeded. Llodra in 2010 was the #8. 2009, Tursunov won as a #2, but beat qualifier Frank Dancevic in the final. Your top four seeds this week: Raonic, Simon, Kohlschreiber and Monaco. The next four seeds: Anderson, Dolgopolov, Seppi & Fognini.
Raonic Quarter
Not a simple draw for Raonic. Troicki. Klizan. Zemlja. Fognini. Istomin. Dodig. Lots of possible scalpers. The Dutch grass surface isn't as quick as Halle where Raonic flopped last week. Don't be surprised to not see him come through this quarter. Troicki-Klizan should be a good one to start, a rematch of a classic 5-setter from Wimbledon last year. Klizan's limited experience could yield another Troicki win, but he's still very inconsistent. Fognini played well here last year even though he's not as big a factor on grass as he is on other surfaces. Zemlja has the game to win on this surface and I think the winner of their 1st rounder could be in line to swoop into the semis if Raonic flops.
Monaco Quarter
I'd look for Monaco to be gone early here. He's not a grass courter, although he does have some Wimbledon wins. Feliciano Lopez is the guy to watch in this quarter. He should get by Nieminen to open and then would have Monaco in his sights. Bottom of the quarter has a great 1st rounder with Verdasco-Dolgopolov ... but Jesus H. Christ, why would you bet on either guy? This is a decent set-up for Lopez to go through as an unseeded player, unless playing qualis last week @ Queens Club and going through a few rounds has left him uninspired for the week. If not Lopez, then I think the Verdasco-Dolgopolov survivor could be around to move into the semis.
Simon Quarter
Right away, the unseeded players stick out. Tomic. Benneteau. Tomic in particular may be ready to get into some sort of groove playing on a good surface. He lost his 1st match up last week, but was fairly solid in losing a tough three setter. He has to get through Anderson in the top of the quarter, but it won't be surprising to see him in the quarters. Simon is hit or miss on grass, so his first match against teenage WC Edmund from the UK or a qualifier could be tough. There are some good qualifiers left to that will fill in the spots and could cause damage: De Schepper, Stakhovsky or Blake and Harrison or Russell. With Anderson nursing a shoulder problem, this quarter may open up for Benneteau or Tomic. Simon might slip through by default, but it's another one where the seeds look shaky.
Kohlschreiber Quarter
Kohlschreiber kicked out of his home tourney earlier than expected in Halle and I find it hard to believe his motivation level is going to be big this week. Stepanek or Matosevic could take him down in his 1st match. Seppi is the other seed here. There will be a couple qualifiers sprinkled in this quarter and they might cause havoc here. Seppi has been poor most of the season, but has made the Finals both times he has played here - in 2012 and 2011. This is a guy I would watch out for and he probably will offer a good futures price as one of the back-end seeds.
Prognosis: This tournament looks tailor-made for taking some pot shots at a dark horse winner in Futures. Seppi. Tomic. Lopez. Those are three I will be looking at for prices to win. I feel like you could make some profit if you played against the top four seeds in their 1st matches at the right price.Comment -
A little tip for you buddy: Stay clear of Tomic.
Seriously!Comment -
I obviously would not over pay for the guy, but this is the sort of low pressure tournament where that dolt might thrive. I don't expect him to roll over and play dead this week. He may lose, but I think the effort will be there (gulp)
And to go more along with my prognosis on perhaps going against all four top seeds in their openers to make some coin if you get a good price on the opponent ... or at least picking your spot maybe to try two and try the old split and profit routine. At least one top 4 seed has lost in their 1st match every year in the past five years.
2012: 1/4 won their 1st match.
2011: 1/4 won their 1st match.
2010: 3/4 won their 1st match.
2009: 2/4 won their 1st match.
2008: 3/4 won their 1st match.Comment -
June 16th
ATP Eastbourne Qualis: Blake -140
ATP s-Hertogenbosch: Huta Galung +155
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 06-16-13, 12:46 AM.Comment -
What do you think about Robin Haase in straights over Mayer EP? Thinking of playing him for a unit or two.Comment -
I'm always sceptical about a player, who gets to a final (win or lose) and then has a quick turnaround.. especially lower ranked players. If only Mayer wasn't a shitty grass court player.
I'm going to go small on the over.
Edit - Ignore ALL of this.. it isn't a quick turnaround AT ALL.
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Mayer has some grass experience this season while Haase has none. Mayer wasn't at all bad in Halle.
1:st @ 2.5 is the bet for me.Comment