Australian Open: I SPY!

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  • EaglesPhan36
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 12-06-06
    • 71662

    #1
    Australian Open: I SPY!
    I spy one of my favorite times of the year. For most this marks the real start to the tennis season when everyone starts taking note of effort levels and such. Consolidating all my picks for the tournament into one thread for ease of viewing, laughing, WTF-ing and are you drunk commentating.

    One piece of advice that I always give out especially around Slams ... don't over due it the 1st couple days. This is a marathon, two week event. Pick the matches you like and stick to them, don't try to pick matches just for action because there are matches going on all night/day. I've learned that the hard way myself. I don't think its problematic if you allow yourself to make an extra pick or two if you have a solid winning day, but trust in your picks and don't chase on these first few days. Futures plays listed first. Will have Day-to-Day picks coming after that.

    Aussie Aussie Aussie. Oi Oi Oi.

    Futures

    #1: David Ferrer to Win His Quarter [-125]

    This just seems like a fantastic price and reminds me a lot of the prices you could find on Andy Murray to win his quarter when he was slotted into the 4th seed for Slams. This though is even lower than those and I absolutely love his draw. Ferrer has Tipsarevic as the top seed in his quarter. He would be his QF opponent if all holds. Looking at Ferrer's path, he opens with Rochus. Rochus is a nice little player, but Ferrer should wear him down and I would be surprised if it wasn't in straight sets. The 2nd round would feature either Karlovic or Smyczek. Karlovic's serve would obviously be a tall task, but with the best of five format - I trust in Ferrer to work Karlovic over, even if it takes an extra set or two. Smyczek would be a mirror image of Ferrer, small in stature and quick, but about a C- version of Ferrer. The 3rd round likely yield the 1st test for Ferrer. I have Baghdatis projected in this slot and upsets by either Millman, Ito or Ramos to that pick would be even more of a boost to Ferrer's chances of advancing to the 4th round. Baggy beat Ferrer in 5 at the 2010 Aussie Open, rallying from two sets down. If Ferrer needed motivation, that would probably be it. Expect a tight match, but still think Ferrer's superior fitness and consistency should win out. The 4th round looks probable to see Nishikori. Depending on Nishikori's work to this point, this could potentially be a first look at a hedge opportunity. Nishikori looked like his knee wasn't an issue as he came back to play a match @ Kooyong this week. We'll see how he holds up through the week. The other possibility in this round might be Youzhny if Nishikori falters. That's a match-up that I think is even more in favor of Ferrer. To the QFs. Tipsarevic is the seed expected to be there, but a wrist issue and tough draw has me looking elsewhere. A repeat of their US Open clash would be great, but I'm looking for Almagro, Dimitrov or perhaps a surprise in this section to be there. My projection is Almagro. 12-0 head-2-head for Ferrer.

    #2: Serena to Win Australian Open [-118]
    Another good price. Serena's draw looks fairly simplistic to the semifinals if she is playing anything close to the level we have seen early. She's drawn a week seed opposite her right now with Kvitova as the top seed in the bottom half of her draw. If she was in-form, I'd look at that as a potential toughie, but Kvitova has continued her dropoff from last year with some pathetic tennis early. I don't think she'll be in the quarters against Serena. I have Sloane Stephens, the Sizzle projected there. Looking in Serena's half, it's hard to see anyone who is going to match her without Serena donating one of her worst matches. Shvedova has the shot making ability, but she has been in poor form to start the year and might not even win her own 1st rounder to meet up later with Serena. Kirilenko as the other seed in this half just does not match-up vs. Serena's power. I actually like Wickmayer to perhaps push through to a 4th round meeting with Serena, but again it's not an opponent I think will deal well with the physical nature of the match. To me, the two things standing in Serena's way of making the final: the weather and Azarenka in the semis. A hot day could change Serena's fortunes, but that's something you monitor and adjust to. Azarenka if seeds hold would be here semifinal match-up. 12-1 head-2-head for Serena and the US Open choke to recall for Azarenka. A lot to overcome. This would be the hedge I would consider depending on price and form. Otherwise, I'd sit tight to the finals if Serena holds up.

    #3: Del Potro to Win His Quarter [+500]
    This is my dark horse play. My long shot, but I think it's a pretty solid play to try and make some profit off of. The quarter features Andy Murray on the bottom half and the draw looks tailor made for a Del Potro-Murray showdown in the quarters. Delpo's toughest match likely will be his 4th rounder with Cilic or maybe Istomin being the likely draw from what I see in this quarter. His first two rounds should be fairly straight forward. Mannarino is in good form, but he has never beaten a Top 10 player in five tries. 2nd round of Bedene or Becker doesn't look like too tough of a prospect, although I would not be surprised to see either one of them win a set off Delpo. 3rd round could be interesting against a Chardy, Zemlja or Granollers. Still, I see Del Potro too consistent. For me, it leaves Murray in the quarters and a hedge to make some profit. I actually think Del Potro has the possibility of pulling off the win even though Murray owns a big advantage in the head-2-head. 5-1, but they have not met since 2009. Both are different players now, so it would be an intriguing match-up that I think we have a goof shot to see.
  • vincanity15
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-31-11
    • 762

    #2
    That Del Potro one looks great value. I have him winning his quarter in my bracket.

    I was going to take Serena as i have been taking her to win every Major/Olympics for the last year. I decided to say fk it this year and i took her to win all 4 majors at 16/1 to instead.
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3
      Utilizing the Open parlay again. I think it's a great tool to try to grind some profit with.

      Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
      Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
      Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
      Comment
      • MUHerd37
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 10-23-09
        • 12816

        #4
        Good luck EP. I will never forget Ferrer losing to Karlovic in Indian Wells. It's the only Ferrer match I have ever seen where Ferrer did not give it everything he had. Kept it close and then gave up. Couldn't see that happening again, and it's a grand slam of course. I like it!
        Comment
        • EaglesPhan36
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 12-06-06
          • 71662

          #5
          *Will be adding more as the night goes, but wanted to get the earliest ones listed.

          Day 1

          Bemelmans -130
          The Belgian made it through qualis into the main draw. He draws Roger-Vasselin who is a tough nut on hard courts. This is Bemelmans first trip to the main draw in Melbourne, but he's been on the rise for the past year. He worked qualis into a main draw 2nd round performance @ Wimbledon and made an indoor Challenger Final late in the season. Both guys have pretty decent serves, so this figures to be a case of who is able to win those big points - saving break points and cashing them in against the other guy. I'll side with Bemelmans who has the court time in Melbourne with qualis with ERV dormant since losing in the 2nd round in Chennai.
          Comment
          • EaglesPhan36
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 12-06-06
            • 71662

            #6
            Originally posted by MUHerd37
            Good luck EP. I will never forget Ferrer losing to Karlovic in Indian Wells. It's the only Ferrer match I have ever seen where Ferrer did not give it everything he had. Kept it close and then gave up. Couldn't see that happening again, and it's a grand slam of course. I like it!
            If I recall, I think he had a virus or food poisoning ... which shows you how stout that little fukker is.
            Comment
            • davopnz
              SBR MVP
              • 02-12-12
              • 1736

              #7
              thoughts on lacko & jerzy? and joker under also looks good
              Comment
              • EaglesPhan36
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 12-06-06
                • 71662

                #8
                Day 1 [Continued]

                Verdasco -135
                Certainly a bit of guesswork as both Goffin and Verdasco have not started the season strong, but Goffin to me looks like he's regressed some from his breakout last Summer. Verdasco had some tough opponents to start, so hoping to see some more improvement with something on the line now. He's also caught a case of lefty-itis, losing to Bellucci and Melzer already this season and he's dropped four straight now to lefties. This is also his 1st trip into the main draw in Melbourne, while Verdasco is the tested vet. Verdasco has only lost in the 1st round once in the last eight years. That came last year in a tough draw against Tomic where he blew a 2-0 lead.

                Chan +165
                Chan slammed through qualis without breaking a sweat. She gets Hantuchova who has a history of struggling in early matches, although she has won the majority of them. Her loss to Morita in Sydney was troubling though as she dominated a set and then was thoroughly outplayed over the final two sets. Chan looks like a decent little player and I think if Hantuchova shows up with the lethargic attitude that infected her game in the two losses she has suffered this year to lesser players, Chan will have a shot to pull off the upset.

                Sarinykh -115
                Another qualifier that was impressive. Minella had the one run at the US Open last year, but still as with many of the young players is inconsistent. Going with form from a player that I looked at in qualis a few times.
                Comment
                • Sharp Snake
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-11-12
                  • 550

                  #9
                  Like the Verdasco pick a lot as all i keep reading is how everyone is on Goffin. Pushed the line down far lower than I feel it should be. I got an awful price on Verdasco but I think he'll still win.
                  Comment
                  • EaglesPhan36
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 12-06-06
                    • 71662

                    #10
                    Precisely why I am not going to play Hewitt later. I love him in that spot with Tipsarevic a little iffy with the wrist issue, but everyone is on Hewitt and those usually get mushed ... of course since I am skipping, he'll probably tomahawk him in straights.
                    Comment
                    • beefcake
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 11-26-09
                      • 14029

                      #11
                      Go home dimitrov..See yah......Stay and bang Maria for a fortnight and hold her shopping bags.
                      Comment
                      • MagicDiceFlow
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-15-12
                        • 4585

                        #12
                        What a overhyped joke in Dimitrov.

                        I can understand losing but cant even win a set in your first round of a slam against Uncle Benny?????
                        Comment
                        • EaglesPhan36
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 12-06-06
                          • 71662

                          #13
                          Day 1 [Continued]

                          Bogomolov-Baker Over 38 [-118]
                          This looks like it should shape up to be competitive. Not sold on Baker being able to continue that magic he had last year. Bogomolov is still a mug at heart, but he got through qualis in reasonable shape and seems to have pulled himself out of the full-on nose dive he was in for the better part of last season. Should be a good chance this goes at least four and with neither as a great returner, there should be at least a tight set or two to help.

                          Millman-Ito Under 38 [-114]
                          Millman has shown some impressive form to open 2013, beating Robredo and taking sets off Andy Murray & Seppi. He also demolished Ito 6-4, 6-1 in Brisbane. Ito has looked out of sorts with his lone win in qualis in Sydney over the Aussie Teen Luke Saville. He lost to Matthew Barton 7-5, 6-1 in the following match. Think there will be lopsided sets in this one regardless of who comes out on top. Seeing Ito's form and Millman's improved play, I think Millman in straights or four where this should have an opportunity. If Ito wins, I would think it would come because Millman absolutely cracked.
                          Comment
                          • EaglesPhan36
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 12-06-06
                            • 71662

                            #14
                            Originally posted by MagicDiceFlow
                            What a overhyped joke in Dimitrov.

                            I can understand losing but cant even win a set in your first round of a slam against Uncle Benny?????
                            He absolutely reminds me of Tomic. Talent out his ears and he can win best of threes, but best of fives - no mental strength. And of course my dumb ass put him deep in the contest LoL. Oh well, bye bye points.
                            Comment
                            • beefcake
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-26-09
                              • 14029

                              #15
                              Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                              He absolutely reminds me of Tomic. Talent out his ears and he can win best of threes, but best of fives - no mental strength. And of course my dumb ass put him deep in the contest LoL. Oh well, bye bye points.
                              Comment
                              • beefcake
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-26-09
                                • 14029

                                #16
                                Stevie J back in the match!!
                                Comment
                                • beefcake
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-26-09
                                  • 14029

                                  #17
                                  Man really pulling for Stevie j now...5th set!! i have Almagro in the contest but who gives a Fukk
                                  Comment
                                  • EaglesPhan36
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 12-06-06
                                    • 71662

                                    #18
                                    Bemelmans totally blew it. Was up a break late into the 4th, choked it and the entire set away. Now to a 5th after he had all the momentum.
                                    Comment
                                    • davopnz
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 02-12-12
                                      • 1736

                                      #19
                                      do you like the joker under? last year he won 6-2 6-0 6-0 in the first round
                                      Comment
                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 12-06-06
                                        • 71662

                                        #20
                                        I usually like to have at least 27, just my opinion. He should shred Mathieu overall, but one tight set and you're in trouble. Knew this Verdasco match was going to drive me batty, but still into it. Blew a break lead. This is about what I expected overall from these two. Back and forth, ebb and flow, highs and lows.
                                        Comment
                                        • EaglesPhan36
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 12-06-06
                                          • 71662

                                          #21
                                          Bemelmans blows an early break in the 5th. Ay yay yay.
                                          Comment
                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 12-06-06
                                            • 71662

                                            #22
                                            And Verdasco sucking major rooster now. Blew a 3-1 third set lead, down 3-4. Fun times.
                                            Comment
                                            • STAY STRONG
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-07-10
                                              • 2498

                                              #23
                                              Verdasco needs to get his shit together.
                                              Comment
                                              • EaglesPhan36
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 12-06-06
                                                • 71662

                                                #24
                                                He's done. Broken already.
                                                Comment
                                                • MagicDiceFlow
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-15-12
                                                  • 4585

                                                  #25
                                                  Goffin looks like Ewan McGregor's evil twin.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Sharp Snake
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 11-11-12
                                                    • 550

                                                    #26
                                                    There we go...Got the break back, right back in it and looking sharper.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Sharp Snake
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-11-12
                                                      • 550

                                                      #27
                                                      And Goffin double faults to give Verdasco another break. 4 straight games won now...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • EaglesPhan36
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 12-06-06
                                                        • 71662

                                                        #28
                                                        God these two are inconsistent. Five setters for my opening bets and sweating them both. Bemelmans and ERV locked at 8 in the 5th.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • STAY STRONG
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                          • 2498

                                                          #29
                                                          We still have hope.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • EaglesPhan36
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 12-06-06
                                                            • 71662

                                                            #30
                                                            Bemelmans chokes again. This time serving out the match after a break, but nooooo.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • EaglesPhan36
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 12-06-06
                                                              • 71662

                                                              #31
                                                              Well Bemelmans finally finished choking. Nice to get that first fukk job out of the way I suppose. Match was on his racket multiple times and he fukked up repeatedly with the lead. Verdasco up a break. See if the dikk can actually hold.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Sharp Snake
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 11-11-12
                                                                • 550

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
                                                                Well Bemelmans finally finished choking. Nice to get that first fukk job out of the way I suppose. Match was on his racket multiple times and he fukked up repeatedly with the lead. Verdasco up a break. See if the dikk can actually hold.
                                                                Verdasco was pissed and frustrated at the end of the 3rd set. Was facing big sun in his face and blew the set. Came out in the 4th was the attitude and since being down 0-2 in the 4th, he's been dominating Goffin. Goffin also took a REALLY long time to come out of the last break while Verdasco was amped and ready to go.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EaglesPhan36
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 12-06-06
                                                                  • 71662

                                                                  #33
                                                                  I'll feel fantastic if he can finish this and I split those first two. Easily could have won both, but easily could be looking at 0-2 and still might be ...
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • STAY STRONG
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-07-10
                                                                    • 2498

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Verdasco taking care of business now.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • EaglesPhan36
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 12-06-06
                                                                      • 71662

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Not even close to over boys. Some big holds coming up. Would love another break donated from Goffin.
                                                                      Comment
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