Matty's Soccer Tips 2012

[MatI]

No, im staying off it.

Japan should be clear favourites but im not convinced they will get the win, because as you said, Aus should be very defensive tonight and Japan do not need the 3 points tonight either. Too many questions and id rather just watch the game and cheer on our boys.

[Optional]

I have zero confidence in the socceroos tonight.

But will be hoping.

[MatI]

Yeah me either. The boys have looked very average in their last few games.

Crazy as it is though, we have never lost a WC Qual game on home soil. If it was ever going to happen, tonight is definitely the night.

[Optional]

How bad was that ref?!

[MatI]

Yep, very bad. South African ref crew I believe. Alot of silly decisions on both sides and I have never seen a ref call a free kick in injury time then blow the whistle before the kick! I can only assume he didn't realise the 3 minutes was up well before he awarded the free kick, then decided to just call it.

I'm glad I stayed off!

[MatI]

NRL, State of Origin Game 2, New South Wales v Queensland
Queensland ML @ 1.95 - 1u

Using my 'fade the public' model here. Majority of the money has been coming in for NSW, yet books have still got this at pick 'em or very close to it.

[MatI]

Copa Libertadores, Santos vs Corinthians
Santos ML @ 2.125 - 1u

[MatI]

MLB, Houston Astros @ SF Giants
SF Giants -1 @ 1.752 - risking 1.5u

[MatI]

Euro 12, Spain vs Ireland
Spain -1.5 @ 1.90 - 1u

[MatI]

NBA, Miami Heat @ OKC Thunder, Game 2
Miami Heat +5.5 @ 1.90 - 1u

[MatI]

NRL, State of Origin Game 2, New South Wales v Queensland
Queensland ML @ 1.95 - 1u - LOSS

Copa Libertadores, Santos vs Corinthians
Santos ML @ 2.125 - 1u - LOSS

MLB, Houston Astros @ SF Giants
SF Giants -1 @ 1.752 - risking 1.5u - WIN

Euro 12, Spain vs Ireland
Spain -1.5 @ 1.90 - 1u - WIN

NBA, Miami Heat @ OKC Thunder, Game 2
Miami Heat +5.5 @ 1.90 - 1u - WIN

Thread Total YTD-
135-142-10
-5.432 units

[MatI]

MLB, Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals
Cardinals -1 @ 1.769 - risking 1u

[MatI]

MLS, Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy
Real Salt Lake ML @ 1.885 - 1u

[MatI]

MLB, Kansas City Royals @ St Louis Cardinals
Cardinals -1 @ 1.769 - risking 1u - LOSS

MLS, Real Salt Lake vs LA Galaxy
Real Salt Lake ML @ 1.885 - 1u

Real up 2-0 heading to HT and concede 3 straight goals. Nice night to show up LA, thanks.


Thread Total YTD-
135-144-10
-7.562 units

[MatI]

F1, European Valencia Grand Prix
Race H2H - Kovalainen @ 1.88 over Petrov - 1.5u

It's hard to predict the results for this grand prix, its wide open at this stage, but i'll open with a bet I have taken at most of the races so far.

[Optional]

No book I have has head to heads up yet. Or I would be tailing that one.

[MatI]

I'm going to ride that H2H all year I think. Results are only 4-3 in Kovas so far this year, but Kova had some mechanical problems earlier in the year which helped Petrov keep it close. I expect this to blow right out by the end of the year.

I was going to take Hamilton podium last night @ 1.75 but I decided to hold off and maybe take it this morning. Now best I can get is @ 1.66.

[Optional]

Was interesting to see Lewis' body language and demeanor as he said this in driver interviews “The guys are working as hard as they can and pushing as hard as we can to improve. We’ve not had the same size of upgrades as others potentially have. We’ve not really had an upgrade since Barcelona but we hopefully will have something very soon. [...] Probably for the British Grand Prix, I would have thought.”

Sounded like he is quite disappointed with the team. A lot more than it does in text.

[MatI]

I didn't see the conference, just read the transcript. Interesting that he maybe upset with rate of development. I'm surprised he thinks that anyway, McLaren is usually one of the best.

[shaunovery]

Early days but red bull look quick

[MatI]

Yep, very early still but they were the most impressive. That should be the lowest temp session all weekend as well and RB's should be in an even better position as it heats up so looking good for them.

Having said that, no drivers did any qualy simulations in P1, all were focusing on race pace. And only 0.3 separating top 9.

[shaunovery]

beleive this qualifying will be different teams instead of saving tyres going all out to get track postion hard to pass here

[Optional]

I was hoping to see/hear more from Lotus/Merc in that session. Although I guess it doesn't mean too much with the low temps.

What's the defect with Button lately?

[MatI]

beleive this qualifying will be different teams instead of saving tyres going all out to get track postion hard to pass here

Agreed. Pole could be crucial.

I was hoping to see/hear more from Lotus/Merc in that session. Although I guess it doesn't mean too much with the low temps.

What's the defect with Button lately?

The team were blaming it on the direction they have taken Button's setup. Apparantly he is starting with Lewis' setup for this weekend which they say should help him.

[Optional]

Just had a shot of Dinger in 1st practice. He was bucking all over the place through the fast corners leading down to the hairpin. Only time i have seen him so far, but it looked really awful to me.

All good on the McDowell bet after P1 at Road America. Papis, Ville, Piquet, McD and Fellows the standouts. Don't think the last 2 did any sort of mock quali run. First 3 tossed in their fast laps right at the end. But those 5 were significantly ahead all session.

[MatI]

Thanks heaps for the run down Opti. Much appreciated.

Like I said earlier, I was convinced that chassis info about dinger would turn out to be bad news and it seems that is how it is playing out.

Did you catch how Kurt Busch went in Nationwide? And how was Kyle and Brad K in Cup? I have a feeling they may be dark horses in all of this...

[Optional]

Kurt's car only ran 4 laps first practice and 10 the 2nd. about mid pack. I didn't think he was there? Dont know who is setting up for him.

New team with no experience here and average performance in pits was never a good recipe I thought. For a 3/1 fave anyway.

Glad I took Piquet at +2200. He will be under 10/1 when the odds come back up.

Don't recall seeing Brad but Kyle was solid in the times all session and looked nice in the first few corners when they showed him.

[Optional]

PS.. That Dinger comment was from early in the session. They could improve.

[MatI]

ah ofcourse Kurt wouldn't be in the nationwide car. Still waking up here, wasn't thinking properly...

Very good call on Piquet, he will have a big chance, I would love to see either him or JV win.

[Optional]

Normally I'd agree... but ya know, I have the mortgage payment on McD here

[MatI]

Now that would be a nice hit

[MatI]

LIVE BET - AFL, Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane Lions
2nd Half WB -10.5 @ 1.90 - 1u

[MatI]

F1, European Valencia Grand Prix
Pole Position - Vettel @ 3.25 - 1.5u
Top 6 Finish - Grosjean @ 1.90 - 1u
Top 6 Finish - Raikkonen @ 2.00 - 1u

Pending:
Race H2H - Kovalainen @ 1.88 over Petrov - 1.5u

[Optional]

Nice work on VEttel pole. Such a nice price in hindsight.

Sooo glad i took Webber early LOL

[MatI]

Thanks Opti. Vettel odds actually got down to 2.00 just before Qual so i got it at the right time. Entertaining Qual session that one, nice grid.

Back luck with Webber, let down by the car so far this weekend..

Don't forget GP2 race starting right now... followed by Nationwide Qual i think.