under in the dome tomorrow
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That Necka "Grape" talking bout some cake"Perfect" looking like Nell carter you need to "Give me a Break"I'll put two hot ones like the south side in yaThen listen to DJ Screw as they plant you Necka
Now go run along and play with your ho's
Like yo lil Necka Fidel Cashflow
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Lickwood means rewind
gunshot means forwardComment -
dodge your bullets like Reeves, I'm rollin up like some sleevesthey told me smoken's a bitch, when I went and asked JeevesComment -
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son of a fukkin bitch manComment -
wow then misses that homer by a foot , a fukkin footComment -
Cubs 0-1
Randal Grichuk 1-0
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redclowns got luckyComment -
anyone find white sox or pirates titillating?Comment -
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That line moving like crazy despite public NC pressure...lol.
I don't have time now for a long write up, but because we may actually see the Championship game cross a pick and I've been focusing on why the line moves I think the opener was off, perhaps on purpose, let me get the forecasts out now.
The sharp forecast says Gonazaga beats North Carolina 76-73. The public gauge says Gonzaga wins 79-74.
Strong indications for a close game here, and you can see it in the line strategy by the books, but I think they are selling a particular program here. I think the underdog, by metrics seldom used this tournament because they really do need the tournament to develop to be most relevant, was going to get action here regardless of who would be favored. That's still a numbers based philosophy and it's the offered line that would decide whether or not a bet is triggered.
Obviously making NC an underdog would have garnered all the action so, despite the numbers, NC becomes favored.
By game time, both teams may have been underdogs for this game.
Amazingly, the market has managed to take money OFF of North Carolina in a match-up with Gonzaga. I can remember when Duke played Butler and money flooded to Duke, who won the game but failed to cover the spread.
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I'm shocked.
Carolina has to start taking money as 9:00 approaches.
This was the only relevant video I could find to express my shockedness
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The line is a solid NC -1 just about everywhere.
I believe the market and current environment is indeed to take money off of North Carolina and have countered the forecast and the earlier “RLM” with North Carolina -112 over Gonzaga.
I am considering live trading this game and perhaps getting both teams as underdogs. Unfortunately, we all know I’m not the only one thinking that. We could have a situation where the trade is available, but only after one team has gone way ahead and the trade develops late in the game, if at all.
Also, my son is getting his orange belt about game time, I may not be as available as I'd like to be for trading...lol.
Good Luck
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I think we see some pressure on NC now, at least the moneyline. I think my bet will "beat the closer" at that house.
I can see a bit of pressure on then NC moneyline from those involved in trading the give and take. The line makes the numbers possible to trigger bets with a structure format for those traders. The same with the total. I'll get to it in the next post.
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not the selection i was looking for
ran out of karate class when i was little because i didn't want to take my socks off
Last edited by PerfectGrape; 04-03-17, 06:14 PM.Comment -
Since going 0-8 against the opening Totals on Saturday March 18th, the forecast has gone 15-7 against the opening totals hitting the last 6 straight…talk about give and take.
As far as moneylines go, the forecast is 10-3 since the Sweet 16 began. It’s a bit more even with 7-6 against the opening spreads since the Sweet 16 began losing the last 3 against the opening spread.
Looking closer at the ACC, the forecast has been successful against the moneyline for 7 NCAA Tourney games in a row. In a bit of give and take, note that during that run of 7 there were 3 failures against the moneyline in the ACC for the NIT tournament; all involving GTech.
The forecast calls for Gonzaga ATS, moneyline and the Under.
You can see I’ve countered the moneyline prediction here. I see the money as stacking and metrics say to take the moneyline at that price. My bet does not have to pay. Bettors have been exploiting the give and take of the markets all season long and to a certain extent during this tournament.
So while there is certain short term settlement in a NC victory, you might consider this recent run of moneyline successes and adding just one more to it a settlement in and of itself.
The give and take never ends and one thing many forget is that market settlements don’t always boil down to one game. Looking back, we saw a similar example when South Carolina beat Baylor as 3.5 point upset. I posted that it wasn’t enough to satisfy the market in a settlement fashion but could be enough to throw off the scent of another upset. The next day Oregon beat Kansas as a 6.5 point upset, completing the settlement.
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at Karate class.
Yeah, Gonzaga sounds good, and many like minded contrarians could be taking NC...stacking a little money short term.
Gonzaga could still get it, after all, NC -1 against a smaller conference seems a bit like a sucker bet on the face of it.
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Doubling down again
all my profits from March Madness on the over 155Comment -
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Got it...
Date Accepted ↓ Bet Description Status 2017-04-03 10:53:06 PM EST Mon Apr 03 2017 21:01:
North Carolina vs Gonzaga
Money Line: Gonzaga +135.294Pending 2017-04-03 10:49:10 PM EST Mon Apr 03 2017 21:01:
North Carolina vs Gonzaga
Money Line: North Carolina +130.392Pending
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what are we gonna see out of wain this year?Comment -
I dunno Grapes, Wainwright getting old...lol.
How about this two pick...
Zona +1.5 and the Padres +1.5.
That's right, the Padres.
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