Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**PerfectGrape** · 03-31-17, 05:44 PM

someone in your group kvb?

A mystery trader known as '50 Cent' has lost $55 million betting that the markets are going to go crazy

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/mystery-trader-loses-55-million-betting-on-volatility-2017-3-1001887023-1001887023

Even though he's lost $55 million he hasn't given up yet.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-31-17, 06:06 PM

Heres my mlb season wins wagers for 2017

Colorado Rockies over 80 wins (-115)

7 units +++ $210 to win $182.61+++

Chicago Cubs UNDER 96.5 wins (-115)

5 units +++$150 to win $130.43+++

Boston Red Sox OVER 92.5 wins. (-115)

5.5 units +++ $165 to win $143.48+++

Stl Cards OVER 83.5 wins (+110)

5 units +++ $150 to win $165+++

New York Mets OVER 86.5 wins (-115)

5 units +++ $150 to win $130.43 +++

Miami Marlins UNDER 77.5 wins (-130)

4 units +++ $120 to win $92.31+++

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-31-17, 06:08 PM

Might add another one , not sure

either way the Cubs arent shit this year

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-31-17, 06:10 PM

Aint bout shit and are shit

luckiest team in mlb last year as far as key injuries
to star players

there pitching squad got unbelievably lucky and sports science proves this, on balls baed that were in play they had the luckiest outcome by far fall teams in mlb

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 03-31-17, 06:13 PM

And there best player looks like a metrosexual
kinda player who ur aunt would ask to borrow dresses from
KRIS BRYANT IS THE KIND OF FELLA THAT WHEN THE DOCTOR
ASKED HIM FOR A SEMEN SAMPLE, HE FARTED IN THE CUP

**KVB** · 03-31-17, 07:12 PM

**KVB** · 03-31-17, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

someone in your group kvb?

http://markets.businessinsider.com/n...023-1001887023

That fukker, he kept doubling down on the Browns to win each week last season as well. He's costing us a ton of money.

Seriously though, that guy is the ultimate chaser, one of these days he'll be right, but he might lose 100 million by May.

Probably has billions, and is probably long stocks as well.

Options on volatility, you just have to love that shit.

**KVB** · 03-31-17, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

...KRIS BRYANT IS THE KIND OF FELLA THAT WHEN THE DOCTOR
ASKED HIM FOR A SEMEN SAMPLE, HE FARTED IN THE CUP

**PerfectGrape** · 04-01-17, 10:21 AM

gonna think of a sick comeback burn to that bryant diss, give me a few days

**DwightShrute** · 04-01-17, 02:18 PM

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 03:22 PM

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 03:23 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

gonna think of a sick comeback burn to that bryant diss, give me a few days

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 03:24 PM

SC/Gonzaga

The sharp forecast has Gonzaga beating South Carolina 74-66. The public gauge says Gonzaga wins 73-65.

This line has done good job of splitting the money with a -6.5 open. Part of the reason it’s below 7 is the increased pressure on the underdog moneyline, which is also fairly split here. I think we are seeing upset buyers on the dog and favorite buyers on the spread to a certain extent, but not as we’ve seen in other high profile games.

The Total opened at the public gauge and has ticked away from the forecast by almost a point. The total is keeping the money fairly split as the discrepancy between the market and the forecast isn’t much and analysts are not too motivated either way.

Often, when many are sidelined the public tends to get their Overs and it could be the case in this first game as it seems to me that the downward movement on this line may be hiding that Over. That said there aren’t enough metrics to trigger a play on the Total here.

As far as the side I am thus far passing as well. This is a definite day of money movement and when I try to determine the best moneyflow two pick parlay, it gets split in many metrics.

Instead of delving into those metrics and coming up split let me mention where things may not be so 50-50 in the short term. If you’ve followed the give and take of the forecasts you know things don’t get too far outside of the natural give and take.

Since the sweet 16 began, the forecasts have been 8-3 against the moneyline. For the spread they have been 7-4-1 against openers and 6-3-3 against the closers. The forecasts are 7-5 against the Totals but are have hit the last 4 straight.

What does it all mean? Well, I have the favorites winning and covering ATS in Overs (one total moved to the forecast) for both games. That’s with any discrepancy against the market.

To help, I can say that the sharp forecast has North Carolina beating Oregon 81-72. The public gauge in that one has a much closer NC win with 76-75.

Gun to my head I would suspect that SC will cover the spread, maybe even win the game, while North Carolina goes on to win as well. One thing that may be keeping Gonzaga at -6.5 and not pushing to -6 everywhere is the market push to get South Carolina to fail. This can be a strong push and appears to be built into the line.

Line analysis and those likely to understand it with regressions will also point toward Gonzaga. I just gave you one for Gonzaga and one against South Carolina. If we come up with a few more relevant metrics along those same lines, the contrarian in me may be looking at a South Carolina bet.

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 03:27 PM

**DwightShrute** · 04-01-17, 05:29 PM

try not to laugh. It can't be done

**PerfectGrape** · 04-01-17, 05:51 PM

s carolina at the half?

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 06:07 PM

Very tempting with that S. Carolina halftime bet. Though not posted as it was a late play at a newly acquired online out, I actually had Gonzaga -3.5 (-112) for the first half and also have SC +6.5 (-101) for the game.

Amounts are small and I didn't really consider it action, even for this thread. There wasn't exactly a huge advantage in the plays.

I'm not taking a 2nd half bet but If I were I wouldn't take Gonzaga.

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...the sharp forecast has North Carolina beating Oregon 81-72. The public gauge in that one has a much closer NC win with 76-75...

The line opened between the numbers and despite public pressure on NC, has moved toward the gauge. The Total opened at the gauge and moved to the forecast, with a lot of public support. With an Over in the first game tonight, the forecast will be successful for the fifth straight game this tourney. But for the NC/Oregon game the current total is the same as the offered line.

Originally posted by KVB

...Gun to my head I would suspect that SC will cover the spread, maybe even win the game, while North Carolina goes on to win as well...

I’m not surprised to see South Carolina coming back to at least keep the game near the line. We are seeing pressure on Oregon in the market, or the appearance of pressure in the market, that I don’t think is quite warranted.

The handle is likely pretty high but this pressure may result in movement and if the line does move toward Oregon I will likely counter with a NC buy. As it stands, at -4.5, metrics indicate we are looking at an NC play but we need to see how this other game plays out to make a market trade pressing the forecast.

Edit: SC came back and made it close a while ago, when I started typing this. There’s now 13 seconds left.

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 07:36 PM

There's that drop to -4. It sure does seem too easy here. Last week NC didn't cover the opener and pushed the closer but won the game.

Could they do the same again tonight? Maybe just win and not cover? It sure does look like it and according to my metrics NC -200 or more is too much given the environment, let's see if I can catch a break on a NC moneyline.

Some houses, it's worth noting, have gone the other way, showing 5, with moneylines of -240...lol to that.

Sometimes you have to pay for the winner.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 04-01-17, 07:53 PM

Threw all my winnings from March Madness
On North Carolina

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 07:53 PM

Even though the forecast in the last 4 games in rotation order in the NCAA Tourney have been successful against the moneyline and other metrics are starting to indicate NC as well, I went ahead and pressed the forecast in that newest out with North Carolina -4.5 (-101) over Oregon.

Good Luck

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 07:54 PM

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 07:55 PM

Let's get it CashFlow!

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 08:31 PM

I just picked up North Carolina -145 over Oregon LIVE.

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 09:24 PM

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 09:24 PM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 04-01-17, 09:43 PM

Listen

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 04-01-17, 09:45 PM

Ill ride or die for my nikkas
get crucified for my nikkas
youll never see a 1 on 1 fukk boy
the whole squad GON get it

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 04-01-17, 09:54 PM

Now roll that dope n shit
on tha block we smoke dat ish
where nikkaz die
cuz the cops come quicker then them doctors shit

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 04-01-17, 09:59 PM

Hope you all listened , might save ur life one day

**Da Manster!** · 04-01-17, 10:05 PM

"there's nothing like a nice piece of hickory!"....Clint Eastwood

<span style="font-family:century gothic;">

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 10:31 PM

Originally posted by KVB

...I would suspect that SC will cover the spread, maybe even win the game, while North Carolina goes on to win as well...

Originally posted by KVB

...It sure does seem too easy here. Last week NC didn't cover the opener and pushed the closer but won the game.

Could they do the same again tonight? Maybe just win and not cover? It sure does look like it and according to my metrics NC -200 or more is too much given the environment, let's see if I can catch a break on a NC moneyline...

Originally posted by KVB

...Some houses, it's worth noting, have gone the other way... ...with moneylines of -240...lol to that.

Sometimes you have to pay for the winner...

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 10:35 PM

Great scene Manster, great scene.

**KVB** · 04-01-17, 10:37 PM

**Da Manster!** · 04-01-17, 10:51 PM

Originally posted by KVB

Great scene Manster, great scene.