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Here comes the money, flying in on the dog.
I was countering that money thinking that the books wouldn't show it to us, I was wrong. They had to blink and my dumb ass should have waited until tip off regardless, except that I may have to leave by 7:00, not sure yet.
I'm taking the -10 as well.
What the harm in an extra bite or two...
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Many traders have ben successful of late getting the dog then taking a free shot live. This, along with other factors, will increase the bets on the +480 dog, and it puts undue pressure on the moneyline and spread.
That is happening now and, to eliminate the smart ass live traders taking a huge dog position early, we could see this game with the favorite leading sufficiently the whole fukkin game. Nothing left to do but watch.
I will not likely trade this game live unless I see a window very early for a cheaper spread price. If so, I'll let the underdog beat me here. We succeed enough with the balance of give and take, this time I think they just take.
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You are an animal, KVB.
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wings spread is the play
thanks for the insights KVB
and the laughs
Last edited by turtledoves; 06-26-18, 08:59 PM.Comment -
By the way, I do have to go, but when I say that I think the market could be hiding an upset, the fact that the first three games are favorites play only a small role in that process, a very small role.
But we all know the effects of a day where the first three games are favorites, or a whole day of favorites (or dogs) on market readers and streak riders and streak breakers.
Sometimes it sends the market into a frenzy.
But as far as signals that there is reaction to or preparing for an upset they are different. It did require one of the games to finish the favorite, but the other two, as long as they weren't upsets, didn't matter as much.
I'll go over it at one point, maybe next time ti comes up.
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Ok, not heading out yet, but the line dropped to 8 in many places.
I didn't think it would go that far and there must be an injury.
Congrats on your play Doves.
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Interesting how whatever is announced is announced so late, given the market we're in tonight.
Regardless, I hate injuries in the smaller markets, they tend to resonate and I'm sure it's an injury.
WNBA full of head fakes...
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PussiesComment -
Fukkin bitch has back spasms Cash, she couldn't take an elbow. Instead of whooping ass, a pre game bet on the dog is already in the money.
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Lebron going to LakersComment -
Even if the favorite doesn't lead in the game, it has maintained the -7.5 spread it basically began with, after the injury.
So far the fav is leading sufficiently, even if not in the game. We've seen ticks lower, to 6.5 and quickly 5.5, let's see if they hold, even with a 6 point deficit.
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New page needs new ass.
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Now I really have to bail.
I'd congratulate you on a win for real, but I really feel like I've seen this movie before, so let's wait and see. Whatever happens, I hope they don't middle with an 8 or 9 point game.
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My kids cokk blocking meComment -
That wine looks delicious.
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Sparks -550 LIVE for the win. That's 550 to in 100.
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I am betting on blonds at the moment. Had a situation with a New York Jewish girl—too much for me to handle lol. Wanted me to call her my ex wife’s name in bed and other things.Comment -
I'm officially on Mexico pretty big tomorrow, biggest bet of the tourney, more than all the other's combined, I think.
Limit bet at Heritage as well.
Come on Mexico, Daddy needs a new pair of shoes!!!!!
DDD, can we get some shoes to go with this Mexico bet!!!!!?
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I don't know, but I've been told,
It's hard to run with the weight of gold.
On the other hand, I've heard it said,
It's just as hard with the weight of lead.
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At last a pick for soccer. Can you explain your thoughts on this one ?
_________________________________
After some research, i did find many things for this to be a public burial.
Yes, mexico is playing well but isnt that strong of a team. Besides doesnt even have to win.
I see everybody on mexico, and even people betting on mexico cause they heard someone.
Could be that america is adopting mexico for betting? Dont let the result vs germany fool you. That result could well be a dog surprise and nothing more.
Sweden in the other hand has taken many hard games to get in to this world cup. It was in the thoughest group and passed in 2nd. After it had to beat Italy in two games to be where it is.
I start seeing value on the Mexico not to win side.Last edited by omedo; 06-27-18, 07:08 AM.Comment -
On the other side, we see Germany vs South Korea
Germany hasnt paid in any game. The people perception is that they arent that strong.
They have the easiest game and have to score.
So the money is on the Germany side on this game.
You could take any line cuz all have worth.
But for a pick i will go with
WORLD CUP
Germany -2,5@ 2,70
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It's definitely not a contrarian play. I think a contrarian market is drying up and that this looked like good bait to start that drying...
It's market timing a bit, and I see I beat the market move, but once the dog gets closer to +145 or +150, I see where the Sweden almost becomes a value for a shot.
The problem is that I don't see it moving enough, and to that end, you could be right, Mexico could hurt the public.
I may have missed some motion in the two line already but the dog obviously picked up play around these levels.
Went with the two way to protect from the tie, with this type of call, the ties crush me in the three way. I'll take the push and the short odds for the win instead of the longer odds for Mexico in exchange for tie risk.
It really is a market swelled tourney call but not the usual contrarian play I try to force in these instances.
It's soccer, and I am admittedly terribly weak on the three way lines and should have consulted you sooner. We pretty much feel the same way about this game but I saw it as a contrarian trap.
Hopefully, with the line moving to only -160 last night, it was suppressed by the books, further setting the trap
Good Luck
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Of course.
Good luck KVB!
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no one can shake em as good as this funbabe:
and some underwater fun:
and some bi fun:
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Well, Sweden really took off.
I should have consulted you Omedo, it was worth a discussion at the very least.
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