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my Caps suck!...another disappointment!...another failure!...I can't take it, anymore!...
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The sharp forecast has Houston beating San Antonio 116-104. The public gauge has Houston winning 111-107.
Again there is not much to say here. The line opened between the numbers this time and finally the forecast, which has been keeping me away when siding with the dog, is now showing inefficiency on the favorite side.
The forecast in a rolling 100 games is beginning to fall to lows. I mention this type tracking instead of a playoff win loss record at this point to bring up different ways to view your results. Against the close, the forecast, with no discrepancy, is down nearly 13 units at -110 odds. There have been some pushes in there, but there are only 44 successes against the spread. The forecast has fared slightly better against the open with a couple more wins.
Much is the same the last few days. For tonight’s game we are still dealing with a single event, something I’ve mentioned this week. The offered Total is still low with the books happily taking bets on the Over. There’s been some give and take in that area.
The forecast is away from the underdog. Could this pull be enough for the market to finally give an upset? San Antonio can be a popular public team, especially in the playoffs, and the public gauge is still inside that spread.
There is no cause to counter the moneyline forecast and, while the bets seem fairly split, sharper money may be countering the popular San Antonio by taking this line at -6 and may even come in at -6.5 by game time, inflating that line to 7. The books had a solid opener with this one.
I could dedicate a lot more time the concept of leading and lagging bettors, bets, and lines. Sometimes the public leads, sometimes the “sharps” lead. If this line hits 7, the more sophisticated “sharps” likely are leading.
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Dude, that's brilliant!Comment -
Say no to cheesy fingers!Comment -
think i got the best total possible on this one .....
not a easy series to handicap imo
but even though Leonard puts up the points, he is also one less elite defender out there
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Good Luck Cash.
I will laugh my ass off if the Spurs win the game tonight, especially with Leonard announced out.
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Dude.....Comment -
Im really starting to dislike the rockets
you see ow many open 3's that bitch made mother fukker Harden
has passes on only to put rockets into a worse shot attempt situation
what a dumb sob , does he have to be guarded to shoot a 3 pointer
they look ridiculous out there?Comment -
JAMES HARDEN first quarter
0 shot attempts but 3 turnovers
He sure has wasted a lot of the time clock slowly walking it u up court and
holding the ball in his hands u til the shotclock gets low then kicking it
out to a DEFENDED player on 3 point line
Its hard to watchComment -
Dare I say that Leonard was NEVER going to play tonight?
Yeah, I dare say it.
I agree Cash, very unprofessional of the Rockets. They could suck in more believable ways, but where's the motivation at this point?
Quite a bit of game left.
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take houston live?Comment -
Dude........Comment -
Houston live was a thought, but not a very long one.
I'm not touching it.
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Rockets 42 points @ halftime @ home in a elimination gameComment -
Just sucks because any kind of showing by the Rockets tonight
and tnis game would be waaaayyyyyy over the pace for the over
Cant put it all the blame on Hardens shoulders though
Ryan Anderson has been flat out gross and Lou Wiliams one dimensional ass looks
like he should be suiting up in the WNBAComment -
My girlfriend walked out the door to pick up our daughter and
I clicked on google went to incognito mode and fukking
typed in "BBW black ass licked"..........
Fukk I need to get control of my life again
It all starts with a bowl of Lucky CharmsComment -
Fukk it, ill sacrifice a unit if it means that Houston Rockets
will be embarrassed on their own home court
and eliminated which means no more James Harden
Frustrating to say the least but repeat that to yourself
Over and over and over again
NO MORE JAMES HARDENComment -
my rockets lost, and i guess i need a spankin' for ever thinkin' they had a chance in this series.....
lucky me.....
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Im on tablet so cant post that pic above but I dont think its photoshopped
It was from espn , and if that game clipboard in the coaches hands is legit
Thats some seriously funny shitComment -
I know its early but this bet I made b4 season started has a chance
threw a unit on it...30 pays out 300
FUTURE WAGER03/09/17 06:12 EST
Result: Pending
2017 National League West Division - Odds to Win
Colorado Rockies10/01/17 20:00 EDT
+1000
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@KVB
probably you didnt see but i«m really interested in your response about an hockey game.
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The sharp forecast says Washington beats Boston 117-109. The public gauge has Washington winning 112-108.
The line opened very close to the gauge and ticked towards the forecast before pressure on the upset moneyline caused some equilibrium. The Total is in the same situation we have seen, with a low market offered and the books readily taking Over bets.
As you may have guessed, the market is signaling a turn, especially with the ridiculous way an upset was brought last night. While each year clearly brings something more and more extreme, records set or not, the same things continue to occur yearly as well.
Many may prematurely think we are back to a normal environment and that the market has turned. They in fact may be looking to offset the recent string of favorites with a string of underdogs. I don’t think the metrics are there yet, I think last night’s game had quite a bit riding on the Houston winner and it was heavily enhanced with the announcement of an important starter out.
There was a bit of settlement and most of those who were winning with favorites over the week may have given some back. Yesterday’s drama seemed to shock most people and the media made a big deal to rub it in the face of the public.
I wrote the above on May 4th and since then there have been 12 games. The favorites won 10 of those games and covered 8 of them.
It’s difficult to say what the next week will bring. We are more likely to see a few more favorites before a mix of favorites and underdogs occur. At this point, I do not see a string of upsets in the near future.
Despite the situation with the books keeping the Total low, I have the Over long term.
Should the pressure on the Boston moneyline cause a drop in the spread, I may be looking to trade the favorite about -4.5. The same goes for the Washington moneyline becoming a favorable price. It will be juiced everywhere but if it can get to -190 or less, I would likely be trading it. The forecast sees value in the moneyline as it currently stands, but I would like to see the market over buy a bit more before trading.
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I let that damn spurs rockets jizz fest cost me 3 units of profitComment -
James Harden is the Kanye West of the NBA
small, and I mean very small possibility
they are the same personComment
