Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

**KVB** · 05-07-17, 11:47 AM

The sharp forecast has Washington beating Boston 115-107. The public gauge says Washington wins 111-109.

Again there’s agreement with the winner here and the spread is between the numbers. It’s difficult to say which one of these first two games today could be the underdog, but, again, it could be neither.

In a money flow opinion I think Boston has the best chance to cover as a dog today of all three games but the metrics aren’t strong enough to pull the trigger and counter the forecast.

**KVB** · 05-07-17, 07:00 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

look at this lil perverts eyes

You talking about the kid or the girl? She's seems to like it. I mean, it's not like she tried to put a stop to it, being in public and all.

**KVB** · 05-07-17, 07:01 PM

The sharp forecast has Houston beating San Antonio 111-106. The public gauge says Houston wins 109-107.

The spread is right on the forecast, right down to the half point in the raw score. As far as the Total is concerned it is a little low and the books are welcoming the over bets. This market condition of inefficiency has been prevalent throughout the playoffs.

Despite this, I know of several successful pro bettors who, even with their experience, can’t identify the inefficiency. One reason is that the stats being used to generate predictions are static and the EV is calculated based on a larger database going back far. These players are failing to adjust for money flow and take into account the environment at which those past results took place.

In other words, it’s not enough to know what happened in statistically similar situations (as far as modeled stats go), the records and database needs to account for the moneyflow that was occurring during those past games, including the position in the rotation.

One thing that can help is by tracking the recent ATS performance leading up to the historical game in question. This is one of the few features of past ATS results that, once massaged, can be very valuable in determining market direction; because it is based on market direction.

Track your bets and why you made them. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to easily scrape historical data based on context. The best way to get it is for bettors live and experience the environment as it happens, and record the appropriate factors.

This is yet another reason why successful sport betting is so elusive. One may take years of watching and recording before ever realizing what actually needs to be watched and recorded.

**Da Manster!** · 05-07-17, 09:24 PM

good calls on the basketball games, KVB!....

**Da Manster!** · 05-07-17, 09:36 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

anyone remember this episode from "The Incredible Hulk" TV series (1978 -1982)...Banner hulks out and saves midget wrestler "Buster" from Italian Mobsters!...

Bill Bixby and Lou Ferrigno were a great Dr.Banner and Hulk team, KVB!...

...I used to watch this show every Friday night after "The dukes of Hazzard"!...Man, those were the days!...

...here is another one of my favorite hulk outs...Banner finds himself cornered by two bad cowboys who don't like his meddling around in the episode "Jake"...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:17 AM

was pissed the other night as prolly could tell
Jazz coasting and up by 9 in 3rd then boom
Durants behavior and 2 fluke and I mean FLUKE shots
to ruin the spread really had me pissed

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:19 AM

its all good though

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:24 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:28 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:31 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:40 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 09:55 AM

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 10:00 AM

.......

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 10:04 AM

.............

```````````````````````````````````````` ````````````````````````

**NUTSonYAchin** · 05-08-17, 11:18 AM

Fidel! It's been a minute. I love you and your threat. Smoke blunts, post big booties, and bet on UFC all day every day my sand *****!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!

**NUTSonYAchin** · 05-08-17, 11:34 AM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

**omedo** · 05-08-17, 11:54 AM

I heard there are some fans!

**omedo** · 05-08-17, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by KVB

The sharp forecast has Houston beating San Antonio 111-106. The public gauge says Houston wins 109-107.

The spread is right on the forecast, right down to the half point in the raw score. As far as the Total is concerned it is a little low and the books are welcoming the over bets. This market condition of inefficiency has been prevalent throughout the playoffs.

Despite this, I know of several successful pro bettors who, even with their experience, can’t identify the inefficiency. One reason is that the stats being used to generate predictions are static and the EV is calculated based on a larger database going back far. These players are failing to adjust for money flow and take into account the environment at which those past results took place.

In other words, it’s not enough to know what happened in statistically similar situations (as far as modeled stats go), the records and database needs to account for the moneyflow that was occurring during those past games, including the position in the rotation.

One thing that can help is by tracking the recent ATS performance leading up to the historical game in question. This is one of the few features of past ATS results that, once massaged, can be very valuable in determining market direction; because it is based on market direction.

Track your bets and why you made them. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to easily scrape historical data based on context. The best way to get it is for bettors live and experience the environment as it happens, and record the appropriate factors.

This is yet another reason why successful sport betting is so elusive. One may take years of watching and recording before ever realizing what actually needs to be watched and recorded.

That's what i'm talking about.
Keep them coming, just keep them coming!!

**PerfectGrape** · 05-08-17, 01:53 PM

**KVB** · 05-08-17, 04:54 PM

The sharp forecast has Golden State beating Utah 107-99. The public gauge says Golden State wins 106-98.

So the market appears tighter and tighter these days with even the public gauge aligning more and more with the forecast which is aligning more and more with market itself. This is different than when we see the line close to the public gauge while the forecast unveils inefficiencies (win or lose).

This game becomes a pass as the line opened right on the forecast. The books will surely be enjoying the gamble put forth by the bettors tonight.

Earlier I credited such alignment with the forecasts with the books adjusting, not the bettors getting sharper. While I probably was, I don’t have to be right; it was more to point out that there is more than just sharp market movers when it comes to honing the line.

But when it comes to the alignment of the gauge and the forecast, the influence of triggered bets or the books intentional moves are minimal. So who do we credit for the alignment? Where do the numbers (public gauge and forecast) come from? They come from statistics derived from what actually happens on the court, or field, of play. What happens on the court is decided by the coaches, players, and officials.

Think about it.

One more thought…

Originally posted by KVB

...In fact, metrics indicate we may be entering an underdog “drought” and that, over the near term, we should see far more favorites both win and cover than we “normally” see...

Since posting the above on Thurs. May 4^th and mentioning it a few more times there have been 8 games. The favorite won 7 of those games and covered 6 of them. There were 4 games on the weekend, with the favorites winning and covering each of them. There was a push against the late close in one game, but only bets on the favorite paid.

Originally posted by KVB

...One thing I can tell you, the NBA will provide its shakeouts; whether in moneylines, spreads, totals, or a couple of each.

I’ll try to walk us through it, losing money or winning…lol...

Are we seeing, or have we just seen a bit of a shakeout? I’m not so sure. In a sense, when considering the weekend as a whole and the three games on Sunday there was definitely a lack of immediate settlement, providing some sort of a shakeout. But a real shakeout should impose itself over more than a weekend and can appear much more brutal.

Make no mistake, those trying to “fade the public” may be a bit shaken, while they frustratingly watch the public get theirs. But if I could see, with any side, a “drought” coming, it likely hasn’t run its course yet.

**KVB** · 05-08-17, 04:58 PM

**PerfectGrape** · 05-08-17, 06:36 PM

thinking jazz tonight

**KVB** · 05-08-17, 07:20 PM

Boy it sure does feel like a situation where the +9 is a winning bet or even that the upset is ripe as the line and situation become passes for many long term bettors. We've seen before where the upset comes when many bettors are sidelined.

It's tough to make that call though. I think the market is still sliding and those bettors seeing an upset line with a team with their backs against the wall are walking into disaster.

I think.

**KVB** · 05-08-17, 07:38 PM

Money coming on that Jazz team. In the absence of the environmental metrics that predicted the favorites in general I would be all over this Jazz team at +9 for all the reasons I stated above. But the value on the environment is just too great to ignore and keeps this game a pass.

Let's see if there is wisdom left in that inflated value.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 07:42 PM

Fukk the Jazz after the other night

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 07:45 PM

Up by 9 surging in 3rd quarter , even tied it twice mid 4th quarter and all that bullshit went down
Fukk both these teams and I think that Durant trifling ass is in for a surprise in the finals

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by NUTSonYAchin

Fidel! It's been a minute. I love you and your threat. Smoke blunts, post big booties, and bet on UFC all day every day my sand *****!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!

Much RespekT

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 08:00 PM

Originally posted by KVB

I miss him too KVB , me and Count (Paul)
knew eachther for more than a few years
Even though I was keping in touch with him
and responding to his PM's , it was only after
He passed that it hit me just how much he actually
Respected me and was reaching out to me in hopes
we would discuss his situation in more depth

**KVB** · 05-08-17, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Fukk the Jazz after the other night

Indeed, and that's five favorites in a row.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 11:21 PM

told yah man , fukk the Jazz
wasnt letting them fukk my night over like they did a few nights ago

**KVB** · 05-08-17, 11:23 PM

Originally posted by PerfectGrape

thinking jazz tonight...

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 11:28 PM

and I really do mean what I said about Durant
feel physically violent towards the dude for some reason ... its strange
His attitude now , combined with his humongous bitch move by going to the team
that keeps knocking him out of the playoffs , he acts like Draymond Green clone out there
with his attitude. I pray they dont win the finals, and have a feeling they will lose to the Cavs again anyways

Kevin Love fits in well with cavs now , Lebron is on his game, Irving is the Warriors kryptonite
Plus the duo of Jr Smith AND Kyle Korver will give them fits and would love to see Warriors beaten at their own game

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 11:34 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant recently
told Revolt TV that he would stay with the Thunder for his whole career, according to ESPN.

"I love it here, man. I love my teammates, I love the city, I don't really think about anywhere else," Durant said in the interview. "I hear it all the time, don't get me wrong, and once you hear it you're kind of like [looks up, thinking]. But for me, I love staying in the moment, and I'm one of those guys that would love to stick it out with one team my whole career."

**DiggityDaggityDo** · 05-08-17, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by Fidel_CashFlow

Holy fawk.

**Fidel_CashFlow** · 05-08-17, 11:39 PM

what a crock of shit . Dude was the reason why the Thunder blew a 3-1 lead in the Western Finals
It was Durants horrible decision making and ZERO clutch play in all 4th quarters but one of them
Then he ups and leaves for the team that came back and owned them down 3-1
Kinda fitting that the same year the Warriors also blew a 3-1 series lead to the Cavs in the Finals