Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[Fidel_CashFlow]

fidel how has life been pal

Thanks for asking but its been rough.
Family is good and all but so used to my face feeling good and now it feels crappy
Ready to feel good again and crack open a ice cold one or some premium rum on ice !!!!

Not drinkin right now because it inhibits nerve regeneration ... so its tough

How you doing. I know you on that drank drank LOL

[Fidel_CashFlow]

yo DwightShrute

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

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[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[KVB]

[KVB]

Butler/NC

The sharp forecast says North Carolina beats Butler 71-70. The public gauge has NC winning 77-74.

The line opened above the gauge and hasn’t moved much. If anything we should see some pressure on Butler as the line opened high on anticipation of public support as well sharp analyst pressure on this game to settle funds from multiple directions. That NC pressure is why the line opened high; let’s see if it moves toward the numbers.

The Total opened just below the public gauge and has moved away from the forecast on some public pressure and extra pressure caused by the matchup with these two teams. While that Over pressure can move markets and the line opened just below the gauge, I think the line move is a bit much. The books saw the Total moving through with 153.5 and 154 with ease, that last push at 155 could be trouble for Over backers.

If anything there is value on the Under but it is the first game today and I want to see where the chips fall, or begin to fall, as the second game begins and ultimately where they stack when the second set of games begin.

In terms of moneyflow I’m looking at a scenario with North Carolina to win and even cover (the same for Baylor) while UCLA gets the best of Kentucky and Florida goes on to beat Wisconsin.

This day, not surprisingly, will be a little more difficult to read the flow of money and that 4 game scenario will likely have flaws.

[KVB]

South Carolina/Baylor

The sharp forecast has South Carolina beating Baylor 71-70. The public gauge says Baylor wins 69-64.

The line opened between the numbers, closer to the gauge, with Baylor -3.5, and ticked slightly toward the forecast. The Total opened between the numbers, again closer to the gauge, and has moved away from the forecast.

The money is pretty split here, but this is also another public situation where those backing Baylor are taking the spread while South Carolina action is on the upset moneyline.

While there are metrics that warrant the upset beyond the public tournament frenzy, and a few at that; there are other metrics indicating this isn’t the time. Conflicting metrics will erode any advantage gained by those metrics when used properly.

In the context of moneyflow speculation, I mentioned above in parenthesis Baylor getting the win. I think it’s best to pass on a trade pressing the forecast with a South Carolina upset.

If Baylor can win the game, covering the spread or not, these upset metrics will come up again before this tournament ends and I will enjoy my banquet then.

[KVB]

[KVB]

[PerfectGrape]

life is simple

[PerfectGrape]

Kansas won by 32 points u friggin retard

purdue backers got robbed, hope you're enjoying this weather

[PerfectGrape]

sharp forecast has south carolina

[KVB]

sharp forecast has south carolina

It's a close one, but yes SC wins 71-70. I'm trying to say I don't think it's a good moneyline bet short term though.

SC took a 1-0 lead, could they be doomed? Muuhahahahahha.

[KVB]

...In terms of moneyflow I’m looking at a scenario with North Carolina to win and even cover (the same for Baylor) while UCLA gets the best of Kentucky and Florida goes on to beat Wisconsin.

This day, not surprisingly, will be a little more difficult to read the flow of money...

North Carolina with a 15 point lead early, but deception abounds.

[smokenjoke]

Good luck Kev!!!


Fidel, I'll smack fire out yo lil ass!!!

[KVB]

[KVB]

UCLA/Kentucky

The sharp forecast has UCLA beating Kentucky 76-72. The public gauge has Kentucky winning 86-83.

The line opened early as a pick and has since moved toward the forecast to UCLA -1.5. The Total opened right at the gauge and has dropped towards the forecast.

The books may have sought a certain balance with the opening line of pick ‘em. The public turned more toward the sharp forecast and a UCLA spread bet. Whoever became the underdog in this game was bound to get some organic and recently successful market pressure.

By opening at a pick the books were generating bets on UCLA but once the line moved to create an underdog, market moving bets game to Kentucky.

This is the essential story behind how this line has created action for the books. Normally, with such an attempt to create action on what should already be a high volume game, we would look to pass here.

I mentioned that I sought North Carolina on the way to a UCLA bet. Well, NC is showing with a large lead early and this may not necessarily drive money to UCLA, as with other moneyflow parlays. In fact, with a large lead down the stretch for NC, money shown may actually be driven to Kentucky.

I think this is the direction of the market and wouldn’t be surprised to see UCLA drop to a 1 point favorite as NC cements the lead over Butler.

If the metrics line up, I would consider countering that drop with UCLA -1 or the moneyline.

[KVB]

...it’s best to pass on a trade pressing the forecast with a South Carolina upset.

If Baylor can win the game, covering the spread or not, these upset metrics will come up again before this tournament ends...

Even if South Carolina was who we thought they were, I don't think it will completely satisfy the metrics still seeking to capitalize in this situation. It may only serve to throw many off the scent.

[KVB]

Wisconsin/Florida

The sharp forecast has a 65-65 tie between Wisconsin and Florida with Florida getting a slight moneyline edge in the raw score. The public gauge has Florida winning 68-64.

The line opened with Florida a small favorite and has moved toward the forecast. The Total opened just below the gauge and has moved toward the forecast. We’re talking one point here, from 131.5 to 130.5. Once again the Totals right on the numbers.

The Total is split well and probably doesn’t have near the volume the books would like. The volume they are getting is, for the most part, causing bettors to gamble; just the way they like it.

As for the line, the books may be enjoying a few extra Wisconsin bets and there may be constraints that keep them from moving towards Wisconsin. One constraint has to do with the similar line in the UCLA vs. Kentucky game. Again everything comes in two’s and I’ve addressed this type of moneyflow before.

Another restraint may be inadvertent steam on Wisky adding to the existing position.

Should we see that Wisky/Florida line hit pick ‘em it just may show that the books will take that action.

Part of this has to do with the opener as well and does imply intent to take a position. If that line drops I may consider countering the forecast with a Florida play.

[KVB]

...Part of this has to do with the opener as well and does imply intent to take a position. If that line drops I may consider countering the forecast with a Florida play...

At a pick em, I'm not really countering the forecast, as it would be vs. the opener. Many underestimate the value of the opening line.

[KVB]

For example, last week Kentucky was favored by 2 points at the early open and the line moved to -4.5. It closed at -3.5 and Kentucky won by 3. They covered the opener, but not the closer.

This can be important when setting match ups to handicap. Further, this type of market activity (which some incorrectly call sharp because of final scores), serves to confuse metrics, erode edges and make it nearly impossible to formulate your own program from scratch.

We have seen a bit of that activity in the Total markets throughout the tourney. As the forecasts ran high in Conference Tourneys, this can be a sign of the market beginning to adjust, but not necessarily a “sharp” market.

But don’t read too much into it, this is just March Madness.

[KVB]

As it stands metrics strongly lean UCLA but so does the forecast. Sometimes, when the short term edge can't justify countering the forecast, I just pass.

In this case with UCLA, the metrics are not strong enough to press the forecast with trading account plays.

But I do think it's UCLA.

[PerfectGrape]

UCLA it is, you better be right

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Smokenjoke still talkin that booty chatter I see

[Fidel_CashFlow]

I went against the grain and took Wisconsin +1 over Florida

[Fidel_CashFlow]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Smokenjoke short lil ass all riled up cuz he has a new midget girlfriend

Swagga Swag

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1490111614298.webm

[Fidel_CashFlow]

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1490129590020.webm

[KVB]

sharp forecast has south carolina

The forecasts are not to be trifled with Grapes.

It's a world of give and take but the forecasts are 5-1 against the moneyline and 4-1-1 against the spread in the sweet 16.

Did I mention it's a world of give and take?

[KVB]

Smokenjoke short lil ass all riled up cuz he has a new midget girlfriend

Swagga Swag

http://i.4cdn.org/gif/1490111614298.webm

[KVB]

UCLA it is, you better be right...

...Did I mention it's a world of give and take?...