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You guys are right. The titty is at 2:19.
I was looking at how much time was left in the video, which is 2:14.Comment -
West Virginia handled the business and that settles some money but send others flowing. I'm walking right into the fire with Wisconsin +5.5 (-105) and +235 over Villanova.
Let's see if the market demands yet more patience.
Good Luck
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So what are we looking at here? Villanova comes back to win while Northwestern beats Gonzaga?
There are other games, like MTSU to take down Butler or what about Xavier? These are all candidates but the money is still flowing.
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Northwestern/Gonzaga
The sharp forecast says Gonzaga beats Northwestern 76-56. The pubic gauge has Gonzaga winning 74-61.
The line opened with the gauge, did trade a bit to 11 but is still at -10.5. The Total opened at the gauge and has moved away from the forecast. There is some public support for the Over but it’s a tough call on the line move. I think the Total is out of line and the movement unwarranted. I think the market may be adjusting to an unsophisticated Over pressure due to recent conference activity. Note, we could be looking at a larger picture with this type of adjustment. It may be a bad sign for those unsophisticated guys, but they could get paid first, their money is easy to get back
I want to take the Under here but we need more information. We have plenty of time, which actually may work against us. When the market gets too much time to react it’s usually by design.
We could easily see the Wisky/Nova game go to OT. For now we watch. If I am directed toward trading the Underdog I will have to pass on the Total.
The totals have moved toward my line in only two of the 8 games today. As I get into reasons I think some moves are questionable.
It’s a minefield out there and on this highly visible and prominent Saturday, the public is gobbling up their Overs.
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Xavier/Florida St.
The sharp forecast says Florida St beats Xavier. 73-69. The public gauge says Florida St. wins 77-73.
The line opened higher than the numbers and moved away from the forecast. I can see market moving pressure on Florida St. that could easily cause the higher line despite the additional pressure on the underdog. The line moving upward implies that there is confidence in that metric and I can see why.
For trading purposes however, in this environment, my metrics will lean us towards Xavier. They are incomplete as of now so we watch.
Xavier is dangerous here and this game is loaded. As I write this the inevitable Villanova comeback is taking place. Wisconsin is in foul trouble and Nova gaining momentum heading into a TV Timeout.
Let's see if Nova let's them hang around.
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For that Xavier vs. Florida St. the Total line opened just above the gauge at 151 and moved away from the forecast. I can see some organic pressure built on the Over and public pressure as well. The line opening a little high should have mitigated some of that but the subsequent movement is a bit much. It’s not completely unwarranted, but it seems a little high.
I’m passing for the trading account until I see some more flow around these Totals.
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MTSU/Butler
The sharp forecast has Mid Tenn St. beating Butler 77-65. The public gauge says Butler wins 69-67.
The line opened a little high above the gauge and has naturally traded down to -2.5. The books had to expect that action in this market and drew all kinds of MTSU pressure. In a nutshell it seems like the surprise is out of the bag. This looks like pure bait and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a late move back to -3 or so on the way to a Butler smashing.
This time the Total opened at the forecast and has ticked slightly downward. Once again we are seeing an adjustment as the higher line (above the gauge) is built in here. Maybe the books seek to sideline some groups. The Total situation is a tough puzzle to put together as it is, to do so this early is nearly impossible.
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Nova didn't come back but I didn't discuss the Northwestern/Gonzaga line much. There wasn't much to discuss movement wise.
I'm passing here. It's the first game in Salt Lake and we need to see some chips fall. Gonzaga might play this one closer than some think but as far as trading goes I think we need to see more.
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Given the environment, the metrics, and the fact that I own Florida St. +1800 in the trading account I have picked up Xavier +7.5 (-105) and +305 over Florida St.
I was going to hold off on taking the first game in any city today, but this one can't go by.
Good Luck
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St. Mary’s/Arizona
The sharp forecast says St. Mary’s beats Arizona 74-69. The public gauge says Zona wins 67-64.
This line opened with the gauge at Zona -2.5 and has gone upward on public pressure. To compensate for and to sideline pressure on the underdog that can not only move markets, but has also seen some success lately the line opened low. The move upward rights things in the public eye, but attracts that underdog attention.
I don’t think it’s an upset here. This isn’t consistent with pulling money off the dog for such a seed upset. From a certain market perspective, Arizona -2.5 as an early line seems suspicious.
I may have these 4:00 pacific games a little mixed as metrics tend to be mixed as well. While I think it’s the favorites in Butler and Zona, you have to wonder when we’re looking for favorites in the upset thirsty market. I see money stacked to a side, and I see it falling with those favorites. The process of stacking could still be happening.
At this point, my metrics are not persuaded enough to indicate countering the forecasts with trades. Of course, there is still time.
The Total opened one above the gauge at 132 and is one of only two games that have moved toward the forecast. There really is a large influx of heavy public pressure on Overs today. I can identify some significant market moving pressure on the Under and the public just gobbled it right up.
At least that appears to be the case. At this point, there is a lot of deception in the Total marketplace. The books want Total bettors to gamble today.
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Virginia/Florida
The sharp forecast has Virginia beating Florida 66-64. The public gauge shows Florida winning 63-60.
The Total opened between the numbers and I can see under pressure that helps move the line closer to the gauge. If anything, this Total is receiving less “extra” pressure on it’s Over than many other games. It may be showing in the movement.
This spread has been at Florida -2 and we are seeing expected pressure downward as I type this. There has been pressure on Virginia from a few angles but this game is well split. This line and the movement are designed to create action. Without being too detailed but using principles I’ve already given, I can see money being driven on the favorite but the pressure built up on Virginia allowed the books to show some into the favorite buying.
It’s a bit like selling your stock into buying pressure so the price isn’t influenced.
We have time and a call may be made but this is one where money is being steered, but it isn’t necessarily being stacked. It becomes just another thorn on the way to the rose.
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Books pulling out all the stops at this stage already.
Generating sneaky action that literally few individuals even know occurred.
A #4 Butler not coming off the -2.5 to a #12 MTSU. How Butler gets this I don't know, but it's that kind of market, I think. Stick with the forecast.
Xavier leading by 10 at half. All I can say is...
It's the Madness.Comment -
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Imagine that, Northwestern and Gonzaga playing right at the line when other games are tipping off.
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Iowa St./Purdue
The sharp forecast say Iowa St. beats Purdue 77-72. The public gauge says Iowa St. wins 78-76.
The line opened at Purdue -1, briefly traded to a pick, but is still Purdue -1. The total opened between the numbers and moved away from the forecast on public pressure. I think this game is a part of the Total deception with this line and that it does not reflect under pressure that I can see. Trying to read this for a play is difficult in this environment and metrics aren’t in line or available yet.
I believe there is considerable pressure from several aspects on Iowa St. Further, and we’ve seen this situation in the past many times before, I believe the line was opened with Purdue -1 and basically kept there as the market absorbs bets that would have gone to the offered underdog.
Still yet, I can see money being steered towards the Underdog by the active marketplace.
This is sure shaping up to be a Purdue bet. When the metrics are complete and it shows that it’s time, I will take Purdue.
We still have a lot of basketball to play and two hours until game time. One thing to note, it sure looks like those who won with South Carolina last night (obviously my most confident play since this venture began) may be giving it back with a Purdue bet.
Maybe I’ll just take the money and run.
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I have picked up Purdue -1 (-105) and -115 over Iowa St.
The market should be blinking and it isn't. If I am giving back some S Carolina money, then I will only give back these two...for now...lol.
Good Luck.
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Purdue out fast, will there be a chance to add to the position?
The internet says this girl went to Purdue...
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"They've shown they can score within 5 seconds. You don't want that if you're Purdue."
--Announcer
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Purdue leading all half. Could we see a little take back from last night? There's a decent give and take at play for those who analyze the markets. Often we see the game played to that audience, while the public just gets a good game, or whatever.
This should be interesting.
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