Fly Me #3 "The Resurrection" Sports Talk,Good Tunes,Great Times, Anything Goes

[omedo]

Pressure was on the underdog, bringing the line down. Many reasons to bet were in play and they were heading to Bucknell.

Instead of "jumping on" that train to a Bucknell bet, I countered the masses (forecast included) with the favorite. It's a lot of points to cover, it may take until late in the game. Bucknell playing close and had I gone with them the sharks would be circling. In this game, at least I'm not leading against the spread early.

But I think the favorite pulls it out.


edit: The inefficiency is the high line helping make the Bucknell bet. That bet is the inefficiency that I say will not pay.

here they come!

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Vanderbilt beating Northwestern 67-63. The public gauge says Vandy gets it 65-63.

The line opened Vandy -1 and moved towards the forecast. The Total opened at the public gauge and moved to the forecast…pretty sharp lines there.

This game is well balanced and tough to call from a trading standpoint. It’s early yet and the first SEC game just tipped but I wanted to get the forecast out there.

[KVB]

here they come!

I saw that, both Butler and WV took double digit leads. WV was up 15, now it's 4. A lot of game left but...

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Xavier beating Maryland 73-67. The public gauge says Maryland wins 72-70.

This line is Maryland -2 and fairly sharp with balanced action. In trying to determine if the market is steering money the best have is a slight push for the dog on top of the forecast. We could see the -2 become -1.5, but at this point the pressures aren’t good enough to trade upon. The Total is with numbers as well.

There is still quite a bit of time and I’ll be looking for other signals but I see this matchup between the Big East and Big 10 as a pass for now. I just don’t see anything developing before the tip.

Two big conferences face off; I’m not surprised the numbers are a bit tight.

[KVB]

The sharp forecast has Xavier beating Maryland 73-67. The public gauge says Maryland wins 72-70.

This line is Maryland -2 and fairly sharp with balanced action. In trying to determine if the market is steering money the best have is a slight push for the dog on top of the forecast. We could see the -2 become -1.5, but at this point the pressures aren’t good enough to trade upon...

This was rushed a bit. I should add that a situation with this line is created by the market where pressure on Xavier is more about the upset while MD buyers will take the spread. If the line drops to -1.5, this doesn't do much for the upset tickets, but those taking the spread with MD will increase in action. At the same time, a drop to -1.5 could cause steam money on Xavier, especially given the forecast.

So even if the moneyline bets force the line to -1.5, the books still manage balance and action on both sides. This line is sharp, not in a sense that bettors can’t’ decide because it’s on a number, but in a sense that the books generate action on both sides with just one movement.

[KVB]

Mt. St. Mary’s/Nova

The sharp forecast has Villanova beating Mt. St. Mary’s 71-61. The public gauge says Nova wins 79-51.

The line opened just inside the gauge at Nova -26.5 and despite trading away from the forecast briefly, it has come back down toward my forecast to -25.5. The Total opened a little higher than the numbers and has moved slightly through my forecast.

In terms of money flow I suspect Nova doesn’t cover the spread (perhaps getting that best price around +27 might have been the way to go) and that it leads into a Vtech win.

It's too early to make that call but we may see additional spread pressure on the underdog and a further move toward the forecast.

We are seeing sharper lines here or at least the market starting to hone them as we move into the later games.

[KVB]

VCU/St. Mary’s

The sharp forecast says St. Mary’s beats VCU 72-58. The public gauge has St. Mary’s winning 66-60.

The line has opened a little lower than the gauges and despite public pressure, this line hasn’t moved much. The Total opened at the gauge and moved to the forecast...another tight Total line.

It’s still too early to consider a trade here but I suspect the market is hiding St Mary’s here and that we could be seeing the favorite cover.

Vermont/Purdue

The sharp forecast says Vermont beats Purdue 74-58. The public gauge has Purdue winning 72-64.

The public may appear to like Purdue here but the line move downward towards my line was predictable. There is pressure on Vermont as the bettors seem to think this could be an upset and are taking the moneyline on Vermont. There is also a fluid metric indicating money is going towards the underdog. One regional metric implies Purdue and helps keep the money split.

In my opinion, these factors and the forecast pulling money off of Purdue could be to allow an anticipated Purdue cover with some sense of split.

I have to step out and hope to be back in time to process information, give a little more insight, and to make a trade if warranted.

[KVB]

I passed on pressing the forecast with St. Mary’s over VCU. I think these third games in each region will help us to see where money flowing. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them ambiguous and misleading over the next hour or so.

GFCU/Florida St.

The sharp forecast has Florida Gulf Coast beating Florida St. 76-70. The public gauge says Florida State wins 79-68.

The line has opened just outside of the gauge with Florida St. -12 and has ticked away from the forecast by a half point. The Total has once again moved through my line as total forecasts in general are getting aligned with parts of the market.

The forecast speaks for itself; Gulf Coast can get this game and a bit of the market knows the line is too high. This worries me a bit as it’s not very surprising. It’s not every day the market drives money toward an upset, but it does happen.

Regardless, this could be an upset and we have time to make a decision.

I do have Florida St. to win it all in the trading account, a play bought a while back when the market seemed appropriate.

[KVB]

VTech/Wisconsin

The sharp forecast Wisconsin beating VTech 69-68. The public gauge says Wisconsin wins 71-67.

The line opened at the gauge and has moved away from my line. There is market pressure on Wisconsin and it has grown today. The Total has once again moved through my line.

...In terms of money flow I suspect Nova doesn’t cover the spread (perhaps getting that best price around +27 might have been the way to go) and that it leads into a Vtech win...

As Nova plays the closer halftime, money flows to Wisconsin. While I was gone and as I write this, the Wisky line has moved to -6.

Close game, line move well in advance, and the last time Wisky was set up, Michigan beat them. Maybe Nova blows them out in the end, maybe it’s Wisky after all.

We still have time to get solid metrics behind this, with less speculation on money flow.

[KVB]

North Dakota/Arizona

The sharp forecast has N. Dakota and Arizona a flat out tie, even in the raw score, at 74-74. The public gauge has Zona winning 82-65.

The line is at the gauge and if anything has moved away from the forecast. The Total opened early at 144.5, jumped immediately to the gauge and forecast, and has since dropped a bit.

Obviously the public is on Zona and there is inefficiency here. Remember, this is just day one and seeking settlements, like maybe some upsets later, can be a dangerous “chase” for the market. Tonight isn’t the final night but a decision on this game is yet to be made. If one is made, it will be for the underdog, and even an upset.

[KVB]

Nevada/Iowa St.

The sharp forecast shows Nevada beating Iowa St. 82-70. The public gauge says Iowa St. wins 83-76.

The line opened close to the gauge and has ticked slightly towards my forecast. The Total opened between the numbers and has also ticked away from my line.

Again, it’s dangerous to start “chasing” upsets tonight, regardless of the performance of the forecasts and overall market results.

Expect to see some action with the current games. We need to see some more information before pulling the trigger and pressing the forecasts. Right now, that would have worked well with St. Mary’s as they pulled away from VCU at halftime.

[KVB]

...Close game, line move well in advance, and the last time Wisky was set up, Michigan beat them. Maybe Nova blows them out in the end, maybe it’s Wisky after all...

...Expect to see some action with the current games...

I blinked and Nova is up 16 points with plenty of time left.

Iowa State could be in trouble tonight.

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Took FGCU +12.5

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Good Luck

[KVB]

...I also bought Charley Hoffman (100-1) to win the first round of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

I think he could tease the market here, letting us know we are getting closer...

And that he did. He's in second, one stroke off the lead. The bet lost but I expected that tease.

We're getting closer.

[KVB]

VCU making a comeback, Purdue and Nova right at the line now.

The market in a phase of ambiguity as we approach the next batch of games....imagine that.

[KVB]

The plays I am looking at to trade: Vtech, FGCU, Nevada and N. Dakota are all in agreement with the forecast against the spread.

It's possible there's a struggle tonight to get an upset, there's always tomorrow.

[KVB]

Took FGCU +12.5

I have it with the forecast, just didn't press the trade.



Good

[KVB]

I've picked up Nevada +6 (-105) and +238 over Iowa St.

The writing is too much, this line may have moved already.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I'm looking for a VCU comeback here, maybe a later cover of the spread. If so, I will buy the moneyline against Arizona. It's an 8 point game 79-71.

I passed with Vtech, trying to be patient.

[KVB]

In fact, Nevada may have been bait, and I didn't have to buy, but the line drop is coming.

[KVB]

VCU made it closer but then failed. Regardless, metrics indicate a play and I have picked up North Dakota +17.5 (-105) and +1476 over Arizona.

If we don’t settle something with these plays tonight, the next couple of days could be interesting.

Good Luck

[Da Manster!]

I did a 9TM 10PT teaser which pays 3 to 1...all I need is VA TECH (+15.5) and FSU (-2)!...

Ticket #	Accepted	Type	Risk	To Win	Short Description
	3/15/2017 11:43AM	Teaser	50.00	155.00	Basketball - 624 Providence +12½ for Game Basketball - 715 Virginia Tech +15½ for Game Basketball - 718 Notre Dame +3½ for Game Basketball - 721 NC Wilmington +17½ for Game Basketball - 726 Florida State -2 for Game Basketball - 727 Xavier +11½ for Game Basketball - 736 Butler -1 for Game Basketball - 740 Northwestern +11½ for Game Basketball - 743 VA Commonwealth +14½ for Game

[KVB]

Like I said, short term trading a can be volatile, and you see the potential above. It doesn't have to come, but these are, for the most part, the situations that bring this kind of upset; and there it is offered. I would have liked to have seen the day play out a little differently, but when it all adds together, this is the play.

Let's see if waiting until the end of the night is patience enough.

[KVB]

I did a 9TM 10PT teaser which pays 3 to 1...all I need is VA TECH (+15.5) and FSU (-2)!...

Ticket #	Accepted	Type	Risk	To Win	Short Description
	3/15/2017 11:43AM	Teaser	50.00	155.00	Basketball - 624 Providence +12½ for Game Basketball - 715 Virginia Tech +15½ for Game Basketball - 718 Notre Dame +3½ for Game Basketball - 721 NC Wilmington +17½ for Game Basketball - 726 Florida State -2 for Game Basketball - 727 Xavier +11½ for Game Basketball - 736 Butler -1 for Game Basketball - 740 Northwestern +11½ for Game Basketball - 743 VA Commonwealth +14½ for Game

Nice work win or lose Manster. Can't nominate the post though...lol.

[KVB]

In fact, Nevada may have been bait, and I didn't have to buy, but the line drop is coming.

Actually, it didn't really drop. That bodes well for me.

[Da Manster!]

Nice work win or lose Manster. Can't nominate the post though...lol.

thanks KVB......Leonard Hamilton is dog shit as a coach...that's the only thing I'm worried about...FSU is taking way too many damn 3pt shots when they have the size advantage...all they need to do is going inside and it's game over...we shall see...why no nomination?

[KVB]

Post Nomination

Nominating this person's post is not allowed.

It's been saying it all day, to anyone I try to nominate...lol.

I have Gulf Coast winning 76-70. Now that the Zona game has started, everything is in play. Let's see how this night winds up.

[Da Manster!]

ok gotcha!.......(on the nomination)....anyhow, FSU has the athleticism and size advantage....no need to get cute...college basketball is almost unwatchable these days...most games are basically 3pt shooting contests!.....good luck on your plays, bro!......will post my plays for tomorrow if I have any!...

[KVB]

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Winner Winner

[Fidel_CashFlow]

Chicken fukking dinner

[Da Manster!]

thanks Clint!...how you feeling dawg?...any luck in today's games?

[KVB]

Winner Winner

Chicken fukking dinner

[KVB]

thanks Clint!...how you feeling dawg?...any luck in today's games?

Took FGCU +12.5