Introducing TOTALCON - My MLB Total Calculator

[frogsrangers]

Spent this morning programming TOTALCON - my new MLB Total Calculator. It analyzes 22 different statistics in an MLB game to determine the Total Factor - a number that shows how likely a game's total is to go under(or over).

Here is a shot of the interface:



The gray boxes are stats my sniffer automatically grabs and fills in, the white edit boxes are stats I have to fill in myself. Trying to find a way to get my sniffer to grab the RISP in Last 5 games box, because that one is the most time consuming.

Anyway, today is the first day I am going to try this out, and here are the total factors it spit out today. A higher total factor means the game is more likely to go UNDER, and a lower total factor means the game is more likely to go OVER.

18/23 - MIA/CHC
13/25 - ARI/CIN
13/25 - TOR/NYY
12/25 - HOU/SDP
12/25 - BAL/MIN
11/25 - CHW/BOS
10/25 - PHI/LAD
9/22 - CLE/TAM
9/25 - WAS/NYM
8/25 - LAA/DET
8/25 - TEX/OAK
7/22 - STL/MIL
5/23 - SFG/ATL
5/25 - PIT/COL
5/25 - SEA/KCR

If I were to make plays on these factors, I would play

MIA/CHC UNDER
SFG/ATL OVER
PIT/COL OVER
SEA/KCR OVER

Let's see how this thing does

[jjgold]

[Bettalent]

Good luck with this!

[ProfaneReality]

what an unfortunate name, but probably fitting.

[riffraff24]

GL buddy

[EVPlus]

Frogsrangers - do you watch too much Transformers...?

j/k

I enjoy your threads in wnba and I'll be watching this one with a great deal of interest. BOL.

[frogsrangers]

All I am hoping for from this is an edge

Not expecting it to hit 100% or even 70%

Just want a profitable long term margin

If it can pick 55 winners out of 100 that's good enough for me

I named it TOTALCON because the guy on the Weather Channel has a tornado prediction system called TORCON, which uses a likelihood factor similar to mine but for tornadoes

[Gnutti]

look forward how you will go with this

[flyboy]

good luck.

[tb1984]

Frog, are you still in school or already graduated? I guess your major is computer science. Which language do you use for your TOTALCON?

[ProfaneReality]

55% is good enough for you ?

55% is good enough for the absolute best handicappers out there.

[EXhoosier10]

Love the Sea/KC over as well as Cubs under and Atlanta over. I don't play coors totals as I don't want to even try figuring a park factor there. Considering my model is 39-13 over the past 28 days, I think you're on the right track. Good luck tonight frogs

[agendaman]

i will tail anything that works/i.e. money in exceeds money out case closed

[Le_Donk]

good luck son

[JMon]

interesting...I do like all those today...gl

[SBRMAN23]

Nice man looks good

[ttrace35]

Looks like frogger needs him a girlfriend.

[h23jdmlude]

Looks good. I've been working on a FF O/U app. I grab the data, store it in a 2008 sql database, then use a c# app to view the data.

[hydrosmak]

Looks like frogger needs him a girlfriend.

[RyanLeafOfBets]

GL sir

[phillybadboy]

frogs i like your boobs

[BEANTOWNJIM]

I LIKE THE SYSTEM BUT YOU HAVE TO BE (EINSTEIN) TO FIGURE OUT ALL THE NUMBERS

I LIKE THE OVER IN THE SAN FRAN GAME

[balls2wall]

nice looking program frogs

hope it does well for you

[EVPlus]

I just want to add that frogs is good enough have a similar thread on the wnba. Like this one, it has its share of critics and trolls. But you have to give props to someone who is willing to disclose details on why he likes one play over another.

Most of the cappers on this forum, including myself, prefer to keep the recipe to ourselves. I can't fault them but I also commend someone who is willing to share information for scrutiny. Will this (or the wnba) profit at the end of the season? Only time will tell but I hope the best for cappers like frogs.

[frogsrangers]

One more run and the Giants game over cashes

[Vinnie Paz]

Frogs nice shit
Really like your wnba one, like how you show your #s too
Props on this and best of luck

[VegasVixen]

Hey Frogs... how far off the line does your projected total need to be before its a "play"? I use a similar system for totals, and I'm very confident when my # is +/- 1.5 off the line (today I had braves ov & cubs under). If the differential of my projected total vs the line is 1 or less, I've found it far less predictive, and I've stopped playing those as they are only about 50%. Using only the differentials of 1.5 off the line I'm at 64.56% since Apr 29th.... whats your cutoff for a play?...

Also, FYI Ive found the past 2 years that there are FAR LESS plays in the 2nd half of the season than in May/June... wondering if you've found the same or is this the beginning of your trial with this system?

[frogsrangers]

Seattle and SF have cashed

Miami looking bad

Colorado still up in the air

Vegas Vixen i will explain when i get home im at work right now

[frogsrangers]

Hey Frogs... how far off the line does your projected total need to be before its a "play"? I use a similar system for totals, and I'm very confident when my # is +/- 1.5 off the line (today I had braves ov & cubs under). If the differential of my projected total vs the line is 1 or less, I've found it far less predictive, and I've stopped playing those as they are only about 50%. Using only the differentials of 1.5 off the line I'm at 64.56% since Apr 29th.... whats your cutoff for a play?...

Also, FYI Ive found the past 2 years that there are FAR LESS plays in the 2nd half of the season than in May/June... wondering if you've found the same or is this the beginning of your trial with this system?

Right now its really early, and really the way it works it that the factor starts at 0, and each time a stat favorable to the under is detected, it increases the factor by 1. Pretty weak right now, one thing I already am going to change is to weight each stat, as some stats are more important that others, and also weight the increase. For example a team that is hitting .200 against lefties increases the factor less than a team hitting .100 against lefties. Right now a lot of the increases are done by comparing the stat against the league average. For example, batting average. A team who is hitting lower than the league average in the last 5 games increases the factor by 1

The only total projecting it does is that it creates a number that I call the "crude total". The crude total is a very rough estimate of what the game's total will be. In every calculation today the crude total was +/- 0.5 of the posted total EXCEPT for Miami/Chicago Cubs. So the way I calculate the crude total is probably similar to how Vegas oddsmakers calculate the totals they post for games. If the crude total is MORE than +/- 0.5 of the posted total, it gave 5 "bonus points" to the total factor, which is why Miami and Chicago had the highest factor today.

I will change some things tomorrow, such as the weighting and the way the factor is calculated. I just laid the framework today, the fine tuning comes tomorrow.

[nrok2118]

Looks good man! Gonna keep my eye on this one.

[bipolar]

Looks very cool. Keep this thread going. I wish you gl.

[phillybadboy]

you suck frogs. ps stop making up bullshit!

[frogsrangers]

Looks like night #1 is in the books, the plays went 2-2. So many runners left on base in the Pirates/Rockies game.

Adjustments will be made and will post again tomorrow.

[Mike Huntertz]

Definately looks interesting.
GL

[JohnGalt2341]

Regardless of whether if fails or succeeds... I love it. Are you going to post all of your plays/results in this thread?