The Pond - frogsrangers' WNBA resource & picks thread

[ttrace35]

Frog is obviously a rookie gambler. Everybody can't be like roxxy, son. Leave it to the professionals. You sound like a goof talking about your models and sheets.

[acl123]

[frogsrangers]

Frog is obviously a rookie gambler. Everybody can't be like roxxy, son. Leave it to the professionals. You sound like a goof talking about your models and sheets.

So do you have anything to contribute to this thread or are you just in here to shit it up and troll it?

How about giving my approach some time so we can see results before you make a judgement?

[ttrace35]

So do you have anything to contribute to this thread or are you just in here to shit it up and troll it?

How about giving my approach some time so we can see results before you make a judgement?

No. I have nothing to contribute. Carry on.

[silvap]

Frog, just ignore the trolls, it's shocking the ammount of idiots that populate this forum...Best of luck on the project

[acl123]

Lets go sparks

[Roxxyfish]

Lets go sparks

Sparks by 20 today. Phoenix will barely score 65-70. but only if lucky, over have no chance grashoppers, trust daddy

[acl123]

In daddy we trust.

[ttrace35]

Frog, just ignore the trolls, it's shocking the ammount of idiots that populate this forum...Best of luck on the project

Not a troll. Just speaking the truth. This goof is talking about he has a model, when I can guarantee he never watched 1 minute of wnba before this year. I dunno why these kids don't go outside and play, anymore. Carry on.

[frogsrangers]

Not a troll. Just speaking the truth. This goof is talking about he has a model, when I can guarantee he never watched 1 minute of wnba before this year. I dunno why these kids don't go outside and play, anymore. Carry on.

I am just experimenting with a proven approach in college basketball and applying it to WNBA

I understand they are different games, but the numbers of basketball are still the same

If this approach fails, then it fails. I am just seeing if its worth anything or not

[ttrace35]

I am just experimenting with a proven approach in college basketball and applying it to WNBA

I understand they are different games, but the numbers of basketball are still the same

If this approach fails, then it fails. I am just seeing if its worth anything or not

Ok. I leave you alone, homie. Good luck. Check for Tracer's NFL thread. 70% last season. I have a model.

[acl123]

Tracers model is impregnable

[frogsrangers]

Ok. I leave you alone, homie. Good luck. Check for Tracer's NFL thread. 70% last season. I have a model.

I will

[frogsrangers]

At halftime, LA Sparks -8 looking good

The over is still up in the air but still has a shot

The pace is there, they are easily playing fast enough to go over, but they are not making the shots

If they keep this pace in the 2nd half and the shots start to fall, the over will hit

Going 3-19 combined from 3 point range won't get the job done

But if they can hit a bit more 3s in the 2nd half easy over

[Roxxyfish]

again dude the over was buried before the game even started.just listen sometimes to someone who knows this sport

At halftime, LA Sparks -8 looking good

The over is still up in the air but still has a shot

The pace is there, they are easily playing fast enough to go over, but they are not making the shots

If they keep this pace in the 2nd half and the shots start to fall, the over will hit

Going 3-19 combined from 3 point range won't get the job done

But if they can hit a bit more 3s in the 2nd half easy over

[cashmoneymob]

again dude the over was buried before the game even started.just listen sometimes to someone who knows this sport

Good shit Roxxy! Sucks cuz I allowed those who doubted you, place doubt withn me and just missed out and some BIG money cuz I couldn't pull the trigger with these guys rambling bout the over! Thanks and always appreciated!

[frogsrangers]

Cold start to 3rd quarter and end of 4th quarter doomed the over

2-3 on the day, 8-4 overall

[frogsrangers]

again dude the over was buried before the game even started.just listen sometimes to someone who knows this sport

It was worth a shot... pace was there but shots just werent falling. If just 3 or 4 more shots fell the total goes over

At least I correctly predicted the final margin of 19

[frogsrangers]

Wont do a write up until tomorrow but for tomorrow's slate I already like San Antonio -3 and Atlanta +6.5 so grab those now since I think the lines are going to shift away from those before tip tomorrow

[Roxxyfish]

not too shabby huh

Sparks by 20 today. Phoenix will barely score 65-70. but only if lucky, over have no chance grashoppers, trust daddy

[bassfish]

scary shit

Sparks by 20 today. Phoenix will barely score 65-70. but only if lucky, over have no chance grashoppers, trust daddy

Roxxy predicted the TT within 1 for Phoenix and the spread by 1

[frogsrangers]

Updated Chart

	W	L	Adj. Offensive Efficiency	Adjusted Defensive Efficiency	Adjusted Tempo	Pyth
Minnesota	14	4	107.94	95.17	80.74	.7843
San Antonio	11	5	107.55	97.68	79.30	.7283
Los Angeles	14	6	103.05	95.99	82.60	.6742
Connecticut	13	4	102.46	96.78	82.12	.6417
Indiana	10	6	102.65	99.14	79.15	.5883
Atlanta	8	9	93.68	91.61	83.84	.5569
Seattle	8	9	94.92	95.35	75.86	.4883
Chicago	8	7	95.96	97.64	79.82	.4555
Tulsa	3	14	97.89	106.55	81.71	.2955
New York	6	11	91.96	101.39	79.38	.2688
Washington	3	13	92.58	102.37	75.77	.2629
Phoenix	4	14	91.73	103.93	84.96	.2175

[frogsrangers]

Today's Games

San Antonio @ Chicago - 11:35am

Spread: SA -3 to -4 (I was able to lock it in at -3 yesterday)
Total: 150
ML: -180 and +160

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: SA - 64%, CHI - 36%
Calculated Money Line - SA: -196, CHI - +176 (Value: SA +16)
Calculated Spread: SA -4.5 (Value: SA +1.5 to +0.5)

Expected Tempo: 78.57 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: SA - 115.49, CHI - 96.95
Projected Score: SA 87 CHI 67
Projected Total: 154 (+4 from posted total)

Plays: SA -3 (if you can only get -4, play it with caution, perhaps for a smaller unit size) and SA money line

Atlanta @ Seattle - 2:05pm

Spread: ATL +8
Total: 143
ML: +330 and -400

Log5 Estimated Win Probability:
-With Angel McCoughtry: ATL - 43%, SEA - 57
-Without Angel McCoughtry: ATL 25%, SEA - 75%

Calculated Money Line:
-With Angel McCoughtry: ATL: +126, SEA: -146 (Value: Atlanta)
-Without Angel McCoughtry: ATL: +310, SEA: -330 (Value: None)

Calculated Spread:
-With Angel McCoughtry: ATL +2 (Value: Atlanta)
-Without Angel McCoughtry: ATL +8.5 (Value: None)

Expected Tempo: 79.15 possessions per team (League Average: 80)

Expected Offensive Efficiencies:
-With Angel McCoughtry: ATL - 85.65, SEA: 83.67
-Without Angel McCoughtry: ATL - 75.90, SEA: 83.67
Projected Score
-With Angel McCoughtry: ATL 68 SEA 69
-Without Angel McCoughtry: ATL 59 SEA 69
Projected Total
-With Angel McCoughtry: 137 (-6 from posted total)
-Without Angel McCoughtry: 128 (-15 from posted total)

Plays: All depends on Angel McCoughtry. Wait until game time and see her status. If she is out, play the under. If she is in, play ATL +8 and make a small play on the ATL Money Line.

Washington @ Connecticut - 6:00pm

Spread: CON -14.5
Total: 151
ML: +1200 and -1800

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: CON - 90%, WAS - 10%
Calculated Money Line - CON: -1100, WAS - +970 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: CON -16.5 (Value: CON +2)

Expected Tempo: 77.34 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: CON - 112.89, WAS - 84.91
Projected Score: CON 87 WAS 67
Projected Total: 154 (+2 to +2.5 from posted total)

Plays: Washington's chance to win in this series was yesterday. Deflated, Connecticut will roll today at home. Play Connecticut -14.5

[ChalkyDog]

Frogs, your politics sucks, but your WNBA capping seems to be legit. I am a sucker for math based projections. I do it for NFL, NCAAFB, NBA, NCAABB - never had the patience to put together one for WNBA.

As a result, I will tail.

Good luck, pal.

[frogsrangers]

Word is that Angel McCoughtry is out, but then again, it said Sue Bird was out on Sunday yet she played and had a career game which ruined my Phoenix +8 play. Anyway, here is today's sheet

(See edited sheet below)

Edit: Shit, have San Antonio listed as +3, its really -3

[SaMSoLeeT]

i think angel would be resting for the Olympics instead of wasting time in this game which they are going yo lose.

[frogsrangers]

Added a last second ML parlay... feeling confident about it

[frogsrangers]

Cash San Antonio -3 and San Antonio ML

[EVPlus]

Nicely done so far. Many cappers will just post their picks and not give an analysis. I can't fault them for wanting to keep their "methods" to themselves (even in the few write ups I do, I never disclose my filters).

Whether or not your model will stand the test of time is to be seen.

However, the fact that you are documenting the evolution of your model and decision to pull the trigger (or not) is to be commended.

[frogsrangers]

Nicely done so far. Many cappers will just post their picks and not give an analysis. I can't fault them for wanting to keep their "methods" to themselves (even in the few write ups I do, I never disclose my filters).

Whether or not your model will stand the test of time is to be seen.

However, the fact that you are documenting the evolution of your model and decision to pull the trigger (or not) is to be commended.

Agree... before something works you have to see if it works. So far so good. I'm not looking for a model that spits out 100% guaranteed winners. As long as it shows a profit, that's all I care about. If a profit means its only winning 53% of the time, so be it. Better than having a losing model.

Anyway... Dream/Storm under looking good, so I would be 3-0, Storm look to lose, which would kill that last second ML parlay, but if anyone is tailing this thread I doubt they would have had time to jump on that parlay. So I would be 3-1, but tailers 3-0.

Probably going to avoid 3 team parlays in the future and only use 2 teamers when my model shows its viable. My model initially spit out a 68-68 tie in the Dream/Storm game before I removed Angel McCoughtry.

[nrok2118]

Wont do a write up until tomorrow but for tomorrow's slate I already like San Antonio -3 and Atlanta +6.5 so grab those now since I think the lines are going to shift away from those before tip tomorrow

Out of boredom I played SA -3 and ATL +6.5 when I saw your this post yesterday, but why didn't you play ATL? Not only did they cover, but won by 11 (wish I played ML!). Keep up the good work, looks promising so far

[frogsrangers]

Out of boredom I played SA -3 and ATL +6.5 when I saw your this post yesterday, but why didn't you play ATL? Not only did they cover, but won by 11 (wish I played ML!). Keep up the good work, looks promising so far

With Angel McCoughtry it actually gave me a 68-68 tie. When I made that post yesterday I thought she was playing, but without her it gave me the model gave me a 8-10 point Storm win, so I stayed away. Not only did the Dream overcome the abscence of their best player but they won going away.

[alta]

frogsrangers?

Washington @ Connecticut - 6:00pm

[/U][/COLOR]Spread: CON -14.5
Total: 151
ML: +1200 and -1800

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: CON - 90%, WAS - 10%
Calculated Money Line - CON: -1100, WAS - +970 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: CON -16.5 (Value: CON +2)

Expected Tempo: 77.34 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: CON - 112.89, WAS - 84.91
Projected Score: CON 87 WAS 67
Projected Total: 154 (+2 to +2.5 from posted total)

Plays: Washington's chance to win in this series was yesterday. Deflated, Connecticut will roll today at home. Play Connecticut -14.5

2012 Regular Season Series
Series starts 6/3
Sun 6/3 @CONN 94, WSH 86 Recap | Box Score
Fri 6/29 CONN 77, @ WSH 64 Recap | Box Score
Tue 7/10 CONN 77, @ WSH 70 Recap | Box Score
Three previous games this season listed above.

What makes you come to the conclusion on todays game being that radically different from yesterdays matchup?

[frogsrangers]

2012 Regular Season Series
Series starts 6/3
Sun 6/3 @CONN 94, WSH 86 Recap | Box Score
Fri 6/29 CONN 77, @ WSH 64 Recap | Box Score
Tue 7/10 CONN 77, @ WSH 70 Recap | Box Score
Three previous games this season listed above.

What makes you come to the conclusion on todays game being that radically different from yesterdays matchup?

Psychological factors and a back to back favors the home team

But looks like Mystics are going to backdoor cover

Sun got up by 16 and then threw in the towel it seems

[frogsrangers]