I think sue bird is going to play but no matter what sparks is just the better team, once Candice parker starts rolling there's no stopping her.
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3-1 todayComment -
Very freaking nice...i am with you at the cashier window. Thanks for this threadComment -
AUGUST 19 2012
Chicago @ Washington
Line: Chicago -5
Total: 145
Money Lines: -230 and +200
Log 5 Win Percentage: Chicago 56%, Washington 44%
Calculated Spread: Chicago -1.5
Calculated Money Lines: Chicago -140 & Washington +120
Projected Score: Chicago 75 Washington 68
Projected Total: 143
Analysis: Both teams are playing very poorly and neither got off to a good start in the 2nd half. The difference is at least Chicago got Epiphanny Prince back to boost their lineup, but who have the Mystics got? The Sky have beaten the Mystics in both previous matchups this year, and I expect this to be an ugly game that the Sky ultimately win. But will they be able to win by 5 or more? That is up in the air. It's a tough beat here. I think the value is on the 5 points the Mystics will get at home, but the Sky should be able to beat this team down. And though my model projects the total to go slightly under, the model is still weighted toward the Sky without Epiphanny Prince. The only play here is no play at all.
Plays: None
San Antonio @ Phoenix
Line: San Antonio -10
Total: 161
Money Lines: -550 and +460
Log 5 Win Percentage: San Antonio 88%, Phoenix 12%
Calculated Spread: San Antonio -16.5
Calculated Money Lines: San Antonio -800, Phoenix +720
Projected Score: San Antonio 100, Phoenix 71
Projected Total: 171
Analysis: Diana Taurasi, where art thou? The model I am using is factoring in a game without Diana Taurasi. And therein lies the problems with models, hard to factor in injuries. But with Diana Taurasi doubtful, its safe to say that even if she does play she might not be effective enough to matter. And that is a tall task when it comes to shutting down the hottest team in the WNBA, who just escaped with a gritty win over Tulsa. And Phoenix, on the other hand, has been lousy since July, and were outplayed in Seattle even without Sue Bird. Though Phoenix nearly knocked off the Silver Stars in San Antonio back in July, I think Phoenix is in pieces right now. San Antonio should roll in the Valley of the Sun, and the over should be money too.
Plays: San Antonio -10, Over 161
Tulsa @ Minnesota
Line: Minnesota -17.5
Total: 169.5
Log 5 Win Percentage: Tulsa 5%, Minnesota 95%
Calculated Spread: Minnesota -25
Projected Score: Tulsa 73 Minnesota 104
Projected Total: 177
Analysis: The Lynx are back at full strength, and already dispatched a weak opponent at home to tune up for the 2nd half. And in comes the Shock, another weak opponent to feast on. But the Shock, though lowly this year, still have the confidence to compete. Will it matter, against the talented Lynx in their own nest? It's tough to tell. These two teams played a pair of interesting games before the break. The Shock pushed the Lynx to the limit for 3 quarters before the Lynx dominated the 4th quarter in Tulsa, eventually winning by 21. But in Minnesota, the Shock got the backdoor cover and shut down the Lynx enough in the 4th to keep the total under as well. This game will all come down to how hard the Lynx go and when they decide to take their foot off the gas. If the Lynx can build a big enough lead, it may not matter. But the Shock are talented enough to cover this, especially through the back door. Play the Lynx -17.5, but hedge with the Lynx -9 first half as well just in case.
Plays: Over 169.5, Minnesota -17.5, Minnesota -9 First HalfComment -
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THanks again for the picks frogs! Went 3-1 today, the only loser being Min 1st half -9. Keep up the great write ups and pick selections.Comment -
It was actually a 2-3 day
I whiffed on both of the totalsComment -
Not a bad looking spreadsheet.Comment -
Big Slate for August 21
Tulsa @ Connecticut
Line: CON -14, 164
Log 5 Win Percentages: Tulsa 11%, Connecticut 89%
Calculated Spread: Connecticut -17.5
Projected Score: Tulsa 76 Connecticut 96
Projected Total: 172
Analysis: Connecticut rebounded from a disappointing 2nd half opening loss with a win against the Liberty, even without Ashja Jones. And she is going to continue to be out for the Sun. But I don't think its going to matter against the Shock, who are bad away from home. I do think it will matter for the total. The Shock don't score away from the BOK Center, and the Sun minus an offensive threat are not threatening offensively. I like the under here, and the Sun to cover -14, as the Shock are still a week away from being competitive. When Liz Cambage comes back, Shock are a new team.
Plays: Connecticut -14, Under 164
Washington @ San Antonio
Line: San Antonio -15, 151
Log 5 Win Percentage: Washington 5%, San Antonio 95%
Calculated Spread: San Antonio -21.5
Projected Score: Washington 62 San Antonio 90
Projected Total: 152
Analysis: San Antonio, the hottest team in the league, continues to roll against a Washington team that somewhat stopped a downward slide with a home win over the Sky on Sunday. But Washington is just plain bad, and are once again going to be fodder for an upper level team in the league. San Antonio will easily cover here.
Plays: San Antonio -15
New York @ Chicago
Line: Chicago -5, 147.5, +200/-225
Log 5 Win Percentage: New York 23%, Chicago 77%
Calculated Spread: Chicago -8.5
Calculated Money Line: +350/-400
Projected Score: New York 68 Chicago 77
Projected Total: 145
Analysis: Both teams have gotten key players back from the break, but while New York has shown some signs of life, Chicago has not. The Sky have dropped 2 winnable games and are still the coldest team in the league. I don't think my model can apply here, since most of its data is full of stats without these key players. So how do we break this down? The Liberty won in Chicago in the most recent matchup by 5. The score was low, 64-59. I think the Liberty will be able to cover here. Ignore my model in this case, and go with the team that has shown some life and the points. I like the over here too, since its a close game, and the model(without key players) shows a game close to the total.
Plays: New York +5, Over 147.5
Minnesota @ Seattle
Line: Minnesota -10, 148.5
Log 5 Win Percentage: Minnesota 73%, Seattle 27%
Calculated Spread: Minnesota -7
Projected Score: Minnesota 80 Seattle 65
Projected Total: 145
Analysis: For crying out loud, when is Lauren Jackson coming back? Sue Bird will be back, but the key piece of the Storm is still out. And with Ann Wauters out, the Storm are missing that inside defensive presence, which is a key against a team like the Lynx who have size. The Storm injury situation is getting worse, and the Lynx are showing no signs of slowing down. A healthy Storm team(even without Lauren Jackson) was able to beat the Lynx here earlier this season, but the Storm have too many problems right now. Play the Lynx -10
Plays: Minnesota -10
Indiana @ Los Angeles
Line: Los Angeles -4, 160.5
Log 5 Win Percentage: Indiana 33%, Los Angeles 67%
Calculated Spread: Los Angeles -6
Calculated Money Line: +200/-220
Projected Score: Indiana 83 Los Angeles 87
Projected Total: 170
Analysis: The Fever are a hard team to project. They are not among the top level of the WNBA, but are above average teams like the Sky, Dream, etc. so where do we make of them? They are getting a good test against the Sparks. While I think the Sparks are a bit better than they have been this year, I think the Fever are not quite ready yet for this challenge, plus playing their first road game in what seems like forever. The Sparks had an impressive win in Indianapolis back in July. I like the Sparks -4 here, because I think they are about ready to turn up the heat and turn the corner, with the Fever being the sacrificial lamb. Also, play the over because I do think the Fever will push this one to the very end.
Plays: Los Angeles -4, Over 160.5Comment -
Nice picks every time for you
thx.
Comment -
4-4 today
Once again the totals are what sinks me
Seem to be doing just fine on the spreadsComment -
Just one game tomorrow
August 22
Chicago @ Atlanta
Line: Atlanta -8.5, 149.5
Log 5 Win Percentage: Chicago 29%, Atlanta 71%
Calculated Spread: Atlanta -6.5
Projected Score: Chicago 73 Atlanta 79
Projected Total: 152
Analysis: The Sky have looked really bad, before and after the break. At least before the break they had the excuse of losing their leading scorer, but now that she is back that excuse no longer holds water. They lost 2 winnable home games and a winnable road game. It's time to accept the fact that the Sky just aren't that good. And to make matters even worse, 2 key players for the Sky, Ephiphany Prince and Sylvia Fowles are not looking good for the game. With those 2 key players out, the Sky may just lay down and not give 100%. The Dream just knocked off the Sky by 6 in Chicago last week, and are coming home for the first time in 2 months to play a game. I think the Dream are trending upward, and the Sky downward. The Dream have more to play for, and the Sky are not in a good situation right now. Look for the Dream to grind out a 10-15 point in here, with the key turning point being when the Sky just give up.
Plays: Dream -8.5, Under 149.5Comment -
One thing I am going to start doing for the time being is play sides for 2 units and totals for 1 unit, just because on sides I am +7.00 units on the year while on totals I am -1.9 units. I am 3-2 on unders and 5-7 on overs, so I am going to be more selective and careful with totals.
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you do GREAT work here. Thanks for this threadComment -
Introduction
Larger sample sizes generally lead to increased precision when estimating unknown parameters. For example, if we wish to know the proportion of a certain species of fish that is infected with a pathogen, we would generally have a more accurate estimate of this proportion if we sampled and examined 200, rather than 100 fish. Several fundamental facts of mathematical statistics describe this phenomenon, including the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem.Comment -
Wow angel mccoughtry out for dream and prince and fowles in for sky this might be a disaster tonightComment -
1-1 today, got lucky with the cover but once again I miss on a total, totals are not the strong point right now. At least it was a profitable day thoughComment -
August 23 Plays
All late games on August 23
New York @ Phoenix
Line: New York -8, 151
Log 5 Win Percentage: New York 65%, Phoenix 35%
Calcluated Spread: New York -4.5
Projected Score: New York 82 Phoenix 69
Projected Total: 151
Analysis: The Mercury have basically laid down and taken a beating this half of the season, and tomorrow they get a home game against a rejuvinated Liberty team. Diana Taurasi is questionable but whether or not she plays it doesn't matter, the value is already on taking the 8 points the Mercury will be getting, and if she does play thats just an added bonus, so try to get Phoenix -8 before the injury report updates because if she plays the line will definately drop.
Plays: Phoenix +8
Indiana @ Seattle
Line: Seattle -2, 144.5
Log 5 Win Probability: Indiana 53%, Seattle 47%
Calculated Spread: Indiana -1
Projected Score: Indiana 75 Seattle 69
Projected Total: 144
Analysis: Even though Lauren Jackson is back for the Storm that won't be enough here, Storm injury situation is still a mess and their inside game is lacking and the Fever bring a strong inside game with Katie Douglass and Shavonte Zeallous. Storm have not been competitive against the higher end teams lately and the Fever have been playing well enough, so the Fever will cover here. Take the 2 points they are getting, they should win outright. Also play the over, 144.5 is low and the Fever have not been strangers to scoring lately, and the Storm should put up their end of the bargain at home. With Jackson being back the Storm should be a bit better offesnively than they have been and without an inside defensive prescence the Fever should have no problem scoring either. Ann Wauters is more important than you think, she might not be an offensive threat but defensively she takes up space.
Plays: Indiana +2, Over 144.5
San Antonio @ Los Angeles
Line: Los Angeles -3.5, 162.5
Log 5 Win Probability: San Antonio 49%, Los Angeles 51%
Calculated Spread: PICK
Projected Score: San Antonio 86 Los Angeles 82
Projected Total: 168
Analysis: This has all the makings of a barnburner. The Stars laid an egg and barely beat pathetic Washington at home, but chalk that up to a lack of motivation. Going into the Staples Center to play the Sparks will give them plenty of motivation. This will be a back and forth game, and I expect lots of scoring and it could very well come down to the last shot. But my model says everything is pointing to the Stars here, the 3.5 points they get is good, plus it projects the Stars to win outright. What more do you need? Stars may not win but if they lose it will be by a small margin. I like the 3.5 points. Each matchup between these 2 teams so far have gone over, don't see why this one won't either, go ahead and take the over also.
Plays: San Antonio +3.5, Over 162.5Comment -
Play Summary for August 23
Phoenix +8 for 2 units
Indiana +2 for 2 units
San Antonio +3.5 for 2 units
Indiana/Seattle over 144.5 for 1 unit
San Antonio/Los Angeles over 162.5 for 1 unitComment -
good stuff, FroggerComment -
quit being a sucker and STOP totals all together. its a crapshoot in WNBA. and its been said a million times over, if you bet UNDER every game, at the end of the season you'd easily be up money. books love your over wagers you keep making.Comment -
Totals are tough in basketball in general because it all comes down to pace, which can vary from game to game and situation by situtation. A team might be a slow halfcourt Princeton team but they fall behind and push the pace. Or a team is a transition fast and loose team that gets a large lead and drains the shot clock each possession. And a pace might be fast but shots don't fall, whistle happy refs send teams to the line and that pads scores.
I agree, totals in basketball are a crapshoot. Nearly impossible to predict accurately. I have considered stopping totals all together, but like the poster above posted, its all about sample size. My model predicts totals based on both teams playing equal to their statistical averages. If the two teams play to their statistical averages in a 40 minute game, and the projected total is significantly off the posted total, shouldn't there be value on said play?Comment -
there is no consistancy in wnba for any team. its too unpredictable. i see you are good but you could be very good if you were more disciplined with your plays and laying off the "coin flip" wagers aka totals. best play is no play alot of times.
a team can score 5 in a qrtr or 28 in a qrtr. there is no model for that type of random behavior. worst thing to wager on imo (wnba totals).
just my .02...
GL broComment -
BuriedComment -
Not so fast... Fever with miracle rallyComment -
Still up for the season, but down for the 2nd half of it
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First week of the 2nd half has been rough, down half a unit so far. Not as smooth sailing as the 1st half, I blame the Olympic Break, teams trying to get back into the swing of things, Olympics was a huge distraction. 2 games on Friday.
Atlanta @ Washington
Line: Atlanta -6.5, 150.5
Log 5 Win Probability: Atlanta 58%, Washington 42%
Calculated Spread: Atlanta -2.5
Projected Score: Atlanta 77 Washington 69
Projected Total: 146
Analysis: Atlanta escaped Chicago and got the cover, and go to Washington to face the Mystics, who looked bad, but were suprisingly competitive against the Silver Stars in San Antonio. But that might not be that special, considering how bad San Antonio looked tonight against LA. With that being said, we have another injury report that might screw us, injury reports are being inconsistent lately, but I am guessing Angel McCoughtry won't play. And despite being in the same conference, these two teams have not met yet this year, so there is no history to go off of. This game is a hard one to get a read on, but Washington should be well rested and ready to go, and without McCoughtry I think Washington should be primed to make a close game at home, so take Washington here.
Plays: Washington +6.5
Chicago @ Tulsa
Line: Chicago -2.5, 152.5
Log 5 Win Probability: Chicago 45%, Tulsa 55%
Calculated Spread: Tulsa -1.5
Projected Score: Chicago 82 Tulsa 79
Projected Total: 161
Analysis: One team will be getting their first win of the 2nd half. Chicago has been bad, despite the return of E. Prince, and played well in Atlanta before falling late. Tulsa has also been competitive, pushing the Sun in Connecticut before falling in overtime. I think Tulsa has the momentum here, they have played well in the 2nd half, and seem more determined. Both of these teams have been able to score lately also. These two teams met earlier in Chicago with the Sky winning in overtime. I am going to go ahead and take the Shock here at home, they play better there, +2.5, and small on the money line, and the over.
Plays: Tulsa +2.5, Tulsa +125, Over 152.5Comment -
frogs, have you thought of ranking your plays from 1 (the strongest), 2, and so on? Or are they all equal in term of how good you feel about them?Comment -
Just thinking out lout on this one...
Since you release multiple plays (except for days when there's only one game), what if you ranked each ats play and kept a spread sheet...? For example, see how your number 1 (strongest) play does, and do the same with 2, 3. And if you've been keeping detailed records this season, maybe back track and see if anything interesting emerges.Comment -
3-1 today, not bad, Shock came through while Mystics rally fell short. A play I made separately was teasing Atlanta/Shock sides, which won, and was insurance against the Mystics LComment -
Games for August 25
Minnesota @ Atlanta
Line: Minnesota -6.5, 162
Log 5 Win Probability: Minnesota 70%, Atlanta 30%
Calculated Spread: Minnesota -7
Projected Score: Minnesota 89 Atlanta 75
Projected Total: 164
Analysis: Minnesota has been rock solid since the break, while Atlanta has been pretty good too, with only a loss at Indiana. And Atlanta has won 2 straight without their leading scorer Angel McCoughtry. But if the Dream want any shot at knocking off the WNBA's best team, they need her, and it looks like she isn't going to play. The Dream played tonight, jumping out to a large lead against Washington before nearly blowing it in the end. Chalk it up to perhaps the Dream saving their parts for the Lynx, but I am just not seeing the Dream being able to keep up with the Lynx without McCoughtry, and even if she plays, I am not seeing it.
Plays: Minnesota -6.5
Tulsa @ San Antonio
Line: San Antonio -15, 160
Log 5 Win Probability: Tulsa 8%, San Antonio 92%
Calculated Spread: San Antonio -20.5
Projected Score: Tulsa 75 San Antonio 99
Projected Total: 174
Analysis: San Antonio has looked bad its past 2 games, barely beating a bad Washington team at home before getting blasted off the court in Los Angeles. And they are getting a Tulsa team who has been respectable in the 2nd half, and just pulled off a come from behind win against Chicago. And perhaps the Shock are catching the Silver Stars at the right time, being demoralized from the beating against the Sparks and the Shock having some confidence. But with the Shock having just played an overtime game, and the Stars with a few days of rest, I think the Stars are going to be well rested and come out swinging. The Shock meanwhile, were lucky to beat the Sky, and needed a huge rally. They may have blown their load against the Sky. So I think the Stars roll here, the Shock will run out of gas and since the Shock are a jump shooting team, the shots aren't going to fall here and the Stars use their size to grind out a win.
Plays: San Antonio -15
Indiana @ Phoenix
Line: Indiana -11, 155.5
Log 5 Win Probability: Indiana 85%, Phoenix 15%
Calculated Spread: Indiana -14
Projected Score: Indiana 94 Phoenix 69
Projected Total: 163
Analysis: Ladies and Gentleman, it looks like the boy is going to stop crying wolf and Diana Taurasi will play. Finally. The question is how much is she worth to the Mercury? How many points? The Mercury just lost at home to the Liberty, and were respectable but blew the chance at the cover late. The Fever meanwhile had a massive rally against the Storm to win with a late 3, and fought hard in Los Angeles putting up a better effort than San Antonio. My model shows that without Taurasi, the spread should be -14, and Indiana wins by 25. How much is Taurasi worth, and how much will she close the gap? Is she worth 10 points? 15 points? I think she will give the Mercury a spark, but the Fever are too good, and I think they cover.
Plays: Indiana -11, Over 155.5
New York @ Los Angeles
Line: Los Angeles -9.5, 159.5
Log 5 Win Probability: New York 11%, Los Angeles 89%
Calculated Spread: Los Angeles -16.5
Projected Score: New York 70 Los Angeles 90
Projected Total: 160
Analysis: The Sparks have officially taken over the title of WNBA's hottest team, humiliating the team that previously held that title, the Stars. But don't discount the Liberty, who have been respectable since the Olympic Break and getting back some key parts. Could the Sparks have a letdown game here after the rout of San Antonio? The main question here is whether or not the Sparks will get up for this game like they did for the Silver Stars. I think even if they don't, they are too good for the Liberty. The Stars handled a better team, the Fever, and won by double digits, so as long as they show up and don't lay a complete egg, the ball should keep rolling for the Sparks.
Play: Los Angeles -9.5Comment -
August 25 Play Recap:
Lynx -6.5
Stars -15
Fever -11
Sparks -9.5
And for insurance, going to add a 3 team 6 point teaser at +125:
Lynx -0.5
Sparks -3.5
Fever -5Comment -
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