The Pond - frogsrangers' WNBA resource & picks thread

[frogsrangers]

Finally finished and polished up my WNBA program that calculates the adjusted offensive, defensive, and pace numbers for WNBA teams similar to how kenpom does for college basketball. You can find out how that works at www.kenpom.com but in laymens terms, efficiency is points scored/allowed per 100 posessions then is adjusted based on the level of competition, with more weight being given to recent games.

Here are the current numbers for games played through Sunday, July 8.

Team	Pyth	Adjusted Offensive Efficiency	Adjusted Defensive Efficiency	Adjusted Tempo	W	L
Minnesota	.7525	104.53	93.78	80.91	13	4
San Antonio	.7301	107.60	97.64	79.27	11	5
Connecticut	.6386	101.99	96.48	82.71	12	4
Los Angeles	.6295	101.72	96.59	83.05	13	6
Indiana	.5861	101.17	97.80	79.54	9	6
Atlanta	.5599	93.73	91.55	83.77	8	9
Seattle	.4879	94.83	95.28	75.83	8	9
Chicago	.4583	96.08	97.66	79.80	8	7
Tulsa	.3570	97.07	102.80	81.84	3	13
Washington	.2596	91.65	101.52	76.21	3	12
New York	.2499	89.65	99.79	79.72	6	10
Phoenix	.2387	91.81	102.81	85.56	4	13

Sheet for July 10

[frogsrangers]

Yesterday's Picks & Results:

[Chi_archie]

big ken pomeroy fan here!

good luck Froggy!

[frogsrangers]

Early Bird July 10th Analysis:

Lots of heavy road favorites tomorrow, and all the games are early tips(probably to combat the All Star Game). Current plays are subject to change unless I state grab it now.

Connecticut @ Washington: Current line CON -9, ML: CON -480/WAS +408, Total: 152.5

Current Play: No plays

New York @ Indiana: Current Line IND -10.5, ML: NY +480/IND -575, Total: 152

Current Play: Indiana -10.5 (grab it now)

Minnesota @ Tulsa: Current Line MIN -12, ML: MIN -900/TUL +704, Total: 164

Note: Rebekah Brunson Lynx's 3rd leading scorer is out but that probably won't matter too much on the outcome as the Lynx are too much

Current Plays: Over 164, Tulsa +12

Los Angeles @ Phoenix: Current line LA -10, ML: LA -600/PHO +498, Total: 169

Current Play: Over 169

[hougigo]

Good shit yesterday man

[greenhippo]

Already took Indiana, decided its time to diversify my bets, have some WNBA and tennis going on now.

[hydrosmak]

Solid content frogs, looking forward to see where this goes.

[frogsrangers]

Today's report for the early games (1 play):

Connecticut @ Washington - 10:30am

Spread: CON -9 to -10
Total: 152 to 152.5
ML: -700 and +500

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: CON - 74%, WAS - 26%
Calculated Money Line - CON: -314, WAS - +294 (Value: WAS +206)
Calculated Spread: CON -7.9 (Value: WAS +1.1 to +2.1)

Expected Tempo: 78 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: CON - 109.27, WAS - 91.17
Projected Score: CON 85 WAS 69
Projected Total: 154 (+2 to +2.5 from posted total)

Plays: None

New York @ Indiana - 11:05am

Spread: IND -10 to -10.5
Total: 152.5 to 153
ML: +600 and -800

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: NY - 12%, IND - 88%
Calculated Money Line - NY: +606, IND: -806 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: IND -14.7 (Value: IND +4 to +4.5)

Expected Tempo: 78.5 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: NY - 81.04, IND - 107.36
Projected Score: NY 67 IND 85
Projected Total: 152 (-.5 to -1 from posted total)

Plays: IND -10

[silvap]

Like your style sir, will check this regularly,best of luck on your plays and thanks for sharing these

[frogsrangers]

Today's Report for the other 2 games

Minnesota @ Tulsa - 11:35am

Spread: MIN -12 to -12.5
Total: 162 to 164
ML: -1200 to +850

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: MIN 73%, TUL 27%
Calculated Money Line - MIN: -320, TUL: +290 (Value: TUL +760)
Calculated Spread: CON -8 (Value: TUL +4 to +4.5)

Expected Tempo: 82.0 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: MIN - 115.6, TUL - 91.4
Projected Score: MIN 89 TUL 78
Projected Total: 170 (+6 to +8 from posted total)

Plays: MIN/TUL OVER 162, TUL +12

Los Angeles @ Phoenix - 2:30pm

Spread: LA -8 to -9.5
Total: 168 to 168.5
ML: -410 and +330

Log5 Estimated Win Probability: LA - 75%, PHO - 25%
Calculated Money Line - LA: -380, IND: +310 (Value: None)
Calculated Spread: LA -9.5 (Value: LA +1.5 to 0)

Expected Tempo: 87.8 possessions per team (League Average: 80)
Expected Offensive Efficiencies: LA - 110.03 and PHO - 91.56
Projected Score: LA 97 PHO 78
Projected Total: 175 (+7 to +6.5 from posted total)

Plays: LA/PHO O 168, LA -8

[Regul8er]

frogs.....Connecticut/Washington Total dropped to 150, so now your about 4 points under projected total.
Does this turn into a play for you now?

[frogsrangers]

Today's Sheet:

[frogsrangers]

frogs.....Connecticut/Washington Total dropped to 150, so now your about 4 points under projected total.
Does this turn into a play for you now?

Usually the total has to deviate from the posted total by at least +/-5 for me to play a total

[tb1984]

BOL with today's pick, frogs

[Regul8er]

Understood......it would have to be fairly signifcant, because way too many factors outside of your control when talking a basket or two.
Goodluck

[frogsrangers]

I am considering making a play on TULSA + 12, due to the injury to Minnesota's Rebekkah Brunson. Researching right now to see how much she contributes on offense and defense and seeing if I need to adjust the numbers any.

She is their leading rebounder by far, 3rd leading scorer, 3rd in steals, 2nd in blocks, 1st in fouls. There is already value on the Tulsa spread with her playing, so without her I think this makes TULSA +12 a play.

ADDING TULSA +12 as a play.

[frogsrangers]

Updated Sheet

[acl123]

Frogger sharp as a razor.

[silvap]

Actually got Tulsa at +13, so even better

[frogsrangers]

Tulsa is up to +13 people!

Indiana is now up to -11.5 so glad we got it at -10!

[Vinnie Paz]

Nice, i like this. Will keep an eye out from now on, good job

[frogsrangers]

Analysis so far:

Connecticut isn't doing to well against Washington, glad we did not make a play on that game. I was leaning toward making a small play on the Washington +9, but didn't. Oh well.

If Indiana can slow the game down and tighten up on defense, they will run away with it. I think the pace is too fast for both teams right now, which is causing them to be lazy on defense, lots of easy baskets.

Tulsa hanging with Minnesota early, and the pace for the over looks good at the moment. Let's hope it stays this way.

Overall I am pleased with how things are going right now.

[Regul8er]

Washington gets the back door cover.
Hopefully Indiana wakes up, but Im afraid their window of opportunity has closed. Hopefully Tulsa hangs around for ya.

[frogsrangers]

Thanks for showing up in the 2nd half, Indiana

[frogsrangers]

Seems like everytime the Liberty get an offensive rebound they hit a 3 right after.

If Indiana rebounded the ball today on defense, they win by 20+

[iifold]

Whats the play in the next game

[frogsrangers]

Whats the play in the next game

I really like the Sparks -8 and the Over 168 here. Though each dog has covered today.

The Minnesota/Tulsa game looks like it will go to the wire. 3 point game going into the 4th. While the spread is Tulsa +12 or +13(depending on what you have), it keeps looking like the Lynx are going to pull away but Tulsa keeps answering to hang around. You have to wonder if Tulsa will run out of gas and run out of answers for the Lynx attempts to put the game away.

The over is a cash though.

[frogsrangers]

HUGE offensive rebound and made shot by the Lynx... thats the type of offensive rebound sequence that can really change the momentum and flow of a game. Tulsa had gotten within 1, but right after the offensive rebound and make Tulsa turns the ball over and then commits a dumb foul.

[frogsrangers]

Its been all Lynx in 4th quarter

Up 15 now

Not looking good

[Roxxyfish]

I really like the Sparks -8 and the Over 168 here. Though each dog has covered today.

The Minnesota/Tulsa game looks like it will go to the wire. 3 point game going into the 4th. While the spread is Tulsa +12 or +13(depending on what you have), it keeps looking like the Lynx are going to pull away but Tulsa keeps answering to hang around. You have to wonder if Tulsa will run out of gas and run out of answers for the Lynx attempts to put the game away.

The over is a cash though.

over will not cash in the sparks game

[flipside2469]

Damn, and here come the Lynx.

[frogsrangers]

Damn, and here come the Lynx.

It was predictable based on how the game was going

Lynx shooting 75% since start of 2nd quarter

Tulsa ran out of answers and didnt play a lick of defense

Only hope now is if Lynx mail it in and put in scrubs and maybe Tulsa can get the backdoor cover

[Regul8er]

WOW...everything was looking so good too.
I didnt do anything, but having fun following games while burning time at work. On to the next one.

[frogsrangers]

WOW...everything was looking so good too.
I didnt do anything, but having fun following games while burning time at work. On to the next one.

Yep, 2 4th quarter collapses ruined our picks today. Indiana collapsed in 4th quarter, Tulsa collapsed in 4th quarter. Both looked like easy covers before hand. The way it goes sometimes, lets hope in the future some of these 4th quarter meltdowns go our way.

Indiana was done in by bad rebounding, Tulsa was done in because Ivory Latta went out of the game and Candace Wiggins hit about 10 3 pointers in a row. Lynx went on their initial game ending run when Latta was on the bench, and Wiggins ended any hope of a backdoor cover with deadeye 3 point shooting

I apologize for the bad picks, but

Can still have a winning day if Sparks cover and the total goes over.

[Antibet]

I apologize for the bad picks, but

Can still have a winning day if Sparks cover and the total goes over.

Picks are good, apology is not needed.

I'd stay away from Sparks total OVER, though. It's too high, one fairly slow quarter will kill it, especially if game is not close at the end of the 4th quarter.