Green Bay to win the NFC @ -150 is as close to free money as you get

[Emily_Haines]

They only have to win two games as they get a bye in the 1st round

As the #1 seed they will get to play the worst team at home where they have won 11 in a row

Bill Cowher said they were the greatest team ever.

If they were a 7pt favorite against the Giants on the road at home with inflated playoff odds they will be at least a...............

14pt favorite in quarterfinals
8pt favorite in NFC championship

I have true value of this prop at -240

[ApricotSinner32]

Do you know the breakeven percentage at -240? If not how did you come up with -240?

[dfberger23]

I would pound the fuk out of this if I had money for future bets.

[rm18]

Giants will beat them in the quarterfinals

[Puppy]

I would pound the fuk out of this if I had money for future bets.

thats always my problem. never enough money for futures with good value. and NEVER enough for a future -150

[FourLengthsClear]

Do you know the breakeven percentage at -240? If not how did you come up with -240?

I assume he has used the pointspreads he posted.

A 14 point favourite would be expected to translate to a ML of around -1000
An 8 point favourite would be expected to translate to a ML of around -310

Not quite -240 but not a million miles away.

[Emily_Haines]

Giants will beat them in the quarterfinals

GB already schooled them at their place.

[Emily_Haines]

I assume he has used the pointspreads he posted.

A 14 point favourite would be expected to translate to a ML of around -1000
An 8 point favourite would be expected to translate to a ML of around -310

Not quite -240 but not a million miles away.

They always inflate the playoff prices on favorites so you got to bump those a bit.

[k13]

They won't be a 14 point fave against anyone in the playoffs.

[Puppy]

very cold weather, top reciever hobbled. versus other pro playoff teams. -150 has some value but i would never go over -175

[FourLengthsClear]

They won't be a 14 point fave against anyone in the playoffs.

I would agree with that. Against Dallas or NYG I would expect them to be a 10 or 11 point favourite if both teams are healthy.

[Emily_Haines]

They won't be a 14 point fave against anyone in the playoffs.

6-0 at home and all easy wins

beat OAK by 30
beat TB by 9
beat MIN by 38
beat STL by 21
beat DEN by 26
beat NO by 8

If they destroyed borderline playoff teams like OAK and DEN by 25+, they for sure going to be 14pt favorite against the likes of DAL, ATL, NYG

[warriorfan707]

This is far from free money.

[Emily_Haines]

I would agree with that. Against Dallas or NYG I would expect them to be a 10 or 11 point favourite if both teams are healthy.

If they were -7 at NY
you need to add 6 to swing the home fields

that makes GB -13

and with the playoff inflation it will be -14

[neverstoppers23]

Green bay has a lot of flaws, a lot of flaws. They are not an unstoppable force, like I thought the Patriots were. The Greenbay defense is terrible, pass and run. Its pretty pathetic, rodgers is covering up for some of that. But it just takes one bad game from rodgers, one bad mistake, one special teams td, fumbles my an rb, and green bay is out.

no, its not free money. and creating threads like this, makes me think greenbay is going to have a short lived life in the playoffs.

[Emily_Haines]

This is far from free money.

If you got any money left you should unload on this.

Watch and win

[Emily_Haines]

Green bay has a lot of flaws, a lot of flaws. They are not an unstoppable force, like I thought the Patriots were. The Greenbay defense is terrible, pass and run. Its pretty pathetic, rodgers is covering up for some of that. But it just takes one bad game from rodgers, one bad mistake, one special teams td, fumbles my an rb, and green bay is out.

no, its not free money. and creating threads like this, makes me think greenbay is going to have a short lived life in the playoffs.

If you watch the NFL this year you will realize nobody has a good defense any more. The Packers defense is able to force tons of turnovers. The offense is unstoppable.

[k13]

6-0 at home and all easy wins

beat OAK by 30
beat TB by 9
beat MIN by 38
beat STL by 21
beat DEN by 26
beat NO by 8

If they destroyed borderline playoff teams like OAK and DEN by 25+, they for sure going to be 14pt favorite against the likes of DAL, ATL, NYG

Comparing Giants/Dallas to those teams is laughable. Zero chance they are +14. Unless completely injured.

Dallas would only be +7 if Murray was not injured. Still might not even be +10 now.

Tampa Bay is garbage and they closed +13.5 and covered easily.

How about points bet here?

[Djstucky]

This is far from free money.

Agree here...defense is capable of giving up yds and points...rodgers has a bad game they may lose...he gets hurt they lose for sure...giants played them close...teams come to play in the playoffs...one bad bounce of the ball and someone's eating juice/vig for weeks...best of luck to anyone on this...

[Emily_Haines]

How about points bet here?

I got 593 and I'm willing to bet them all

[FourLengthsClear]

If they were -7 at NY
you need to add 6 to swing the home fields

that makes GB -13

and with the playoff inflation it will be -14

Is that how you calculate your spreads?

You could argue that the -7 in NY was 'inflated' due to the Giants having lost their previous 3, factor in weather and I don't think you would see -13.

[k13]

I got 593 and I'm willing to bet them all

Ok. I'll bet you an even 500.

Let's make the stipulations specific.

[PAULYPOKER]

There are no teams that can defeat G-bay in the NFC due to injuries besides the Saints however there are 3 in the AFC..........

Thu 12/15 18151 8:25PM 18152
GB Packers or NE Patriots win Superbowl-121
Field wins Superbowl +101


The field looks to be a solid bet..............

Pats don't have the defense to make it
whoever makes it for the AFC Balt,Pitt,or Hou will be well balanced the ingredient that wins championships......

[Emily_Haines]

Ok. I'll bet you an even 500.

Let's make the stipulations specific.

Let's make 600 to work with easy numbers

600 to win 400

Loser pays up after championship game or whenever GB gets knocked out.

[k13]

Let's make 600 to work with easy numbers

600 to win 400

Loser pays up after championship game or whenever GB gets knocked out.

I thought you wanted to bet on what the spread will be as a side bet.

Not really interested in this NFC prop.

[Emily_Haines]

I thought you wanted to bet on what the spread will be as a side bet.

Not really interested in this NFC prop.

No can't bet that don't know who there opponent will be.

Anyone want the field for +150?

[Jonah]

I love Green Bay's Defense. They create turnovers. They might get beat a lot too, but those turnovers and sacks they get in big games. That is what it is all about when you have that Offense. Here's the deal...

In a big game, you can forget about stopping that Offense more than 4 times.

Pack Defense forces a couple turnovers a few punts and it's smooth sailing.

The weather is the only opponent of the Pack.

Any team beating the Pack indoors(if they are healthy) And I am an AFC guy. Love Batimore.

[suicidekings]

Comparing Giants/Dallas to those teams is laughable. Zero chance they are +14. Unless completely injured.

Dallas would only be +7 if Murray was not injured. Still might not even be +10 now.

Tampa Bay is garbage and they closed +13.5 and covered easily.

How about points bet here?

I don't know if I entirely agree with this. I don't think GB necessarily deserves to be a -14 fave over the Giants in the playoffs, but it would not shock me to see the Packers open around there and even take action at that number, especially if they look strong in their last 3 games and/or go 16-0. Marching into the playoffs looking invincible to the public eye...

[warriorfan707]

If you got any money left you should unload on this.

Watch and win

Continue
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Available Balance $1,849.34 ▼



But I dont think Im willing to throw a penny on this especially since Im a Niner fan.

[nobshine]

I love Green Bay's Defense. They create turnovers. They might get beat a lot too, but those turnovers and sacks they get in big games. That is what it is all about when you have that Offense. Here's the deal...

In a big game, you can forget about stopping that Offense more than 4 times.

Pack Defense forces a couple turnovers a few punts and it's smooth sailing.

The weather is the only opponent of the Pack.

Any team beating the Pack indoors(if they are healthy) And I am an AFC guy. Love Batimore.

One of the best posts in this thread. GB D is terrible? Wow is all I can say. Somebody does not know his football. 28 turnovers, next closet 17. how many times did they score on them? Would imagine a high %. Thing with them is that they are extremely focused. If they repeat and go undefeated, they will separate themselves from all the other GB championship teams. Not said in the media, but this is a big goal for this team. They will not play scared by resting players unless they have some serious dings that need resting. Jennings will be playing in the playoffs and the offense will not skip a beat with Cobb and Finley in the slot. The only thing concerning is Jermichaels drops. Sitton and hopefully Clifton will be back and I think one team has a shot at beating them, Balt. But they would have to play perfect and put up at least 30.

[dynamite140]

Do you know the breakeven percentage at -240? If not how did you come up with -240?

A question coming from a guy that just plays all underdogs and has no reasoning other then taking +money

[suicidekings]

One of the best posts in this thread. GB D is terrible? Wow is all I can say. Somebody does not know his football. 28 turnovers, next closet 17. how many times did they score on them? Would imagine a high %. Thing with them is that they are extremely focused. If they repeat and go undefeated, they will separate themselves from all the other GB championship teams. Not said in the media, but this is a big goal for this team. They will not play scared by resting players unless they have some serious dings that need resting. Jennings will be playing in the playoffs and the offense will not skip a beat with Cobb and Finley in the slot. The only thing concerning is Jermichaels drops. Sitton and hopefully Clifton will be back and I think one team has a shot at beating them, Balt. But they would have to play perfect and put up at least 30.

Look at the historical success rate of teams in the playoffs that have a high reliance on turnover margin. When they run into teams that manage to take care of the ball, they tend to run into trouble. This was demonstrated as recently as last year when the Patriots got knocked out by the Jets. Which isn't to say GB is definitely going to fall apart, but anyone that "knows his football" understands a lot of things can go wrong for teams in a single game that are seemingly invincible beforehand.

[yisman]

There are no teams that can defeat G-bay in the NFC due to injuries besides the Saints however there are 3 in the AFC..........

Thu 12/15 18151 8:25PM 18152
GB Packers or NE Patriots win Superbowl-121
Field wins Superbowl +101


The field looks to be a solid bet..............

Pats don't have the defense to make it
whoever makes it for the AFC Balt,Pitt,or Hou will be well balanced the ingredient that wins championships......

You can count out Houston.

[Fishhead]

No can't bet that don't know who there opponent will be.

Anyone want the field for +150?

YES

[baskets]

guess the Seahawks don't have a shot, lol