There aren't many 'Sharps' on these Boards...???

[HedgeHog]

There are some talented poster's around here, and I absolutely believe they are holding back their best sh!t, I'd be doing the same thing too, if I put that much time in researching it. Plus, I think it's bad karma to tell anybody your lock picks.

Good post, but one small correction. There are no "locks", just games that are more +EV.

[SBR Lou]

This deserves a shift from the gerund to the imperative followed by a repeating in red, blinking text.

Realize that there is never a wrong side, just a wrong price. --donjuan

That would make a very good signature. I'd love to wear it but I don't know if Donjuan would be comfortable with this.

[donjuan]

Crazyl,

Go for it. You should get the code so it flashes, though.

[HedgeHog]

Crazyl,

Go for it. You should get the code so it flashes, though.

I think Crazyl got it! It's flashing now.

[willyback]

So you said "point taken" just for the hell of it earlier?

No. "Point taken" simply means that I'm giving your comments their due respect. You made a "point" and I'm "taking" it into consideration. Doesn't necessarily imply that I agree or disagree with your views.

Line shopping is an important aspect of sports handicapping: especially for those bettors who hold it near and dear to their heart, actively employing their shopping techniques into their routine handicapping strategies.

I too employ line shopping (as needed), but my primary focus is to identify winning sides (first and foremost).

[HedgeHog]

Willy:

You're taking some flak here. Part of the problem is that you're focusing on just one aspect of wagering. FWIW, I look at the entire process as a three-legged stool.

1) Handicapping--you've got to pick enough winners. You seem to give this more than its fair share of attention.

2) Money Management: Betting too little or too much on your plays will be detrimental to your bankroll--no matter what your win % is actually.

3) Line shopping: This will help your bottom line significantly. If you're good at #1 and #2 above, then this will come naturally.

Again this is a 3-legged stool to me, a weakness in any one area means you risk falling on your ass.

[willyback]

Line shopping is essential, and not particularly hard. Also, I don't just mean shopping for the number, but realizing that there is never a wrong side, just a wrong price.

Simply for clarification purposes, allow me to elaborate on what I think that you're saying...

You have a series of games on a Monday (any given sport). You handicap each game (employing your analytical prowess). Most of the games are appropriately priced (projected losers are underdogs, projected winners are favorites - various prices). You identify two games where the "clear" winners have surprisingly high underdog values. Given the first part of your statement that "there are no wrong sides," I'm assuming that you can reasonably project the outcome of most games (as far as winners versus losers). Therefore, the two games in question that offer you +100(+) returns on your investment are your "best bets" for the night (as opposed to the other over-priced favorites on the board).

Am I correct?

[SBR Lou]

Given the first part of your statement that "there are no wrong sides," I'm assuming that you can reasonably project the outcome of most games (as far as winners versus losers).

It is a tall task speaking for DJ, so I won't attempt to do so, but basically I think you're interpreting what he said wrong. Being on the winning side of an individual event has no bearing on whether or not it was a 'good bet'. That is results oriented thinking. If you make it a habit of getting the worse number consistently, you will bury yourself. I spend very very very few minutes "capping games", in fact most of the time I never do.

[willyback]

Willy:

You're taking some flak here. Part of the problem is that you're focusing on just one aspect of wagering. FWIW, I look at the entire process as a three-legged stool.

1) Handicapping--you've got to pick enough winners. You seem to give this more than its fair share of attention.

2) Money Management: Betting too little or too much on your plays will be detrimental to your bankroll--no matter what your win % is actually.

3) Line shopping: This will help your bottom line significantly. If you're good at #1 and #2 above, then this will come naturally.

Again this is a 3-legged stool to me, a weakness in any one area means you risk falling on your ass.

I see what you're saying. I do place a great emphasis on winning my bets. Prices and line shopping tend to be a secondary thought (at best).

[BeatTheJerk]

<<<<<<<<< future sharp .......... lol j/k

[pokernut9999]

Willy:

You're taking some flak here. Part of the problem is that you're focusing on just one aspect of wagering. FWIW, I look at the entire process as a three-legged stool.

1) Handicapping--you've got to pick enough winners. You seem to give this more than its fair share of attention.

2) Money Management: Betting too little or too much on your plays will be detrimental to your bankroll--no matter what your win % is actually.

3) Line shopping: This will help your bottom line significantly. If you're good at #1 and #2 above, then this will come naturally.

Again this is a 3-legged stool to me, a weakness in any one area means you risk falling on your ass.

#2 is my weak leg , whenever I go above a normal bet I fall to a low %

And when I go below a normal bet the % goes up.

[HedgeHog]

Willy is basically taking a short-term view. "If I pick right tonight, the price doesn't matter". However, everyone loses and you need to minimize those losses for your long-term bottom-line.

[donjuan]

You identify two games where the "clear" winners have surprisingly high underdog values.

This is not how sports betting works. Edges aren't massive on bets that have high limits unless you have some special inside information. If you think a +200 underdog is a "clear winner" (I'll arbitrarily define this as 70%, feel free to define it yourself) based on widely available public information, think again.

[donjuan]

Crazyl,

Pretty much right.

[willyback]

Willy is basically taking a short-term view. "If I pick right tonight, the price doesn't matter". However, everyone loses and you need to minimize those losses for your long-term bottom-line.

So you do that through line shopping. Therefore, the actual side doesn't matter? You're trying to create a combination of bets at even (or better) value at a reasonable return of 55 to 60%. Is that is right?

[donjuan]

Therefore, the actual side doesn't matter?

As long as you get the right price, no. Read Ganchrow's introduction to expected value.

[willyback]

I'll check it out now.

[HedgeHog]

So you do that through line shopping. Therefore, the actual side doesn't matter? You're trying to create a combination of bets at even (or better) value and a reasonable return of 55 to 60%. Is that is right?

No, handicapping matters as much as anything else. But would you rather bet your pick at -2.5 vs -3, or -105 vs -110 --it makes a big difference in the long run.

[willyback]

I see what he's saying (makes a lot of sense).

[DAWGPEN]

There are some talented poster's around here, and I absolutely believe they are holding back their best sh!t, I'd be doing the same thing too, if I put that much time in researching it. Plus, I think it's bad karma to tell anybody your lock picks.

No true sharp would ever come on a message board and give out info, cmon!!!

[willyback]

I'll have to employ Granchow's formula sometime soon (see how it pans out).

[willyback]

For the record, I'd still bet money that their are some talented sharps (out there) who simply play sides (without much concern for the line) and consistently turnout great profits (year in, year out). Call it naive thinking, but I've met some bettors (in the past) who could really dismantle their perspective sports with truly "out of the box" analysis, repeatedly picking winners with (what seemed to be) relative ease.

Oh well...

[durito]

For the record, I'd still bet money that their are some talented sharps (out there) who simply play sides (without much concern for the line) and consistently turnout great profits (year in, year out). .

i'll take this bet for the max

[donjuan]

For the record, I'd still bet money that their are some talented sharps (out there) who simply play sides (without much concern for the line) and consistently turnout great profits (year in, year out).

You are not sharp unless you build a time machine!

[Patrick McIrish]

Willy:

You're taking some flak here. Part of the problem is that you're focusing on just one aspect of wagering. FWIW, I look at the entire process as a three-legged stool.

1) Handicapping--you've got to pick enough winners. You seem to give this more than its fair share of attention.

2) Money Management: Betting too little or too much on your plays will be detrimental to your bankroll--no matter what your win % is actually.

3) Line shopping: This will help your bottom line significantly. If you're good at #1 and #2 above, then this will come naturally.

Not sure if #3 always comes naturally or not Hog.



As for the topic I think ALL wiseguys read these forums, every one of them. They may not post often (or at all) but they monitor them, this is their business, they are connected and need to keep a finger on the pulse of the off-shore world. Sharps are another story, there are some probably who do well betting sports that may not even be aware these places are here, most do however and again at least monitor these places for book info and so on. Big variables in how active/inactive they are in these places.

[Patrick McIrish]

I'd still bet money that their are some talented sharps (out there) who simply play sides (without much concern for the line) .......

Wrong. By definition this is impossible.

[HedgeHog]

Pat:

To me, line shopping comes easiest. I have all my Books listed on SBR Odds, so I can find the best price almost instantly. Picking the right side and the size of the bet is a little more tricky.

[Patrick McIrish]

I agree with you on that Hog, just not sure everyone else understands the value of shopping for the best number. You see a little of that in this thread from a few. Even in real life I interacted with a guy that knows football inside and out, he really does, is a great capper. Pretty good with money too, although very conservative and not what you would call a sophisticated bettor (he flat bets 1 or 2% of roll) he is extremely disciplined. However when it comes to shopping for the best prices he is clueless. Can't see the big deal in making a fuss of an extra point here or there, LOL. Plays into one book and will not even entertain the thought of increasing his outs, tried to talk him into it years ago. Anyway no big deal, just when I read the part that if you did 1 and 2 well then 3 would come naturally it made me think of players from the past I used to know.

[BuddyBear]

Once you get away from the "winners" thinking, and towards the "right price" thinking, you'll have made a step in the right direction.

I said this months ago, long before DonJuan was saying this and when I said it, he just brushed it off as a minor point.

[pokernut9999]

I play mostly with locals during football. Try to have 2 or 3 and it is unreal how many people question why do you need more than one. The two I had this year had so many games with 1 to 2 point differential it was unreal. Even had a 4 point spread on a Kansas game this year. You have to have these options.

Also how many times do we hear Bodog has crappy lines ? Think guys would use them for dogs don't you think.

[donjuan]

I said this months ago, long before DonJuan was saying this and when I said it, he just brushed it off as a minor point.

Link to me brushing it off as a minor point, please.

[BuddyBear]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-handicapping-46/biggest-shocker-49472-p2.html

post #68....

[BeatTheJerk]

according to how iwin is picking i would call him *sharpie* of the month ...........

[LT Profits]

Actually BB, he gave you an A- on this point, so he didn't brush it off.

[donjuan]

LT,

Indeed. Reading comprehension FTW!