Originally Posted by
KVB
Not only did I recognize what Josh is saying, but I sort of had these same thoughts that homie is having.
For the margin stat though, it might just all be relative and we can still expect that drop. Or, we could look at a lot of that new "gambling type" stock money on margin, knowing full well most of that gets fleeced (usually).
If that new money has an inherent risk, being new, new to margin, inexperienced, getting in too late on a run, etc. then we know some pullbacks, even if just sectors, could lead to margin calls and further selling. Which could then lead to a broader dip.
The elements are there, but so is the question of modern day investing, stimulus, gov't help, plunge protection, etc. so I 'm not so sure I've comfortably worked out just what will happen here.
I might keep an eye on fibb retracements and moving average levels to seek some confirmation should we see a pullback.
I'm also on record saying, last August, that the market would be flat over the next year. That is, it could go up a bunch, but by August it goes back to where it was last August. I said that before that stimulus and before Biden was in.
I still see it as true, but I also see my hypothesis as starting to get a little shaky.