Gambling Professionally?

[MagicBeerBelly]

I'm no pro by any means, but I've been at this for a few years and have learned some lessons.

First, stick to what you understand. Not what you're a fan of, but what you understand.

Second, understand that you're a human who carries biases. In my opinion, the key to succeeding is to find a way to determine the true odds of a sports match which doesn't allow for your bias to enter into the equation.

Third, and this is tough (for me at least)-- don't get cocky when you're on a roll.

Don't know what else I can add. If you choose this path, I wish you the best.

[chumley]

There is no free ride you dipshit.

If you can't spot all the "free rides" out there, then you need a wake-up call

Drug dealers, trust fund babies, big inheritances, nepotism ... they're all around you & I. You can't honestly say that everyone who's wealthy & living in high style has truly "earned" their position on the social totum pole. Many have, yes, but free riders are all over the place.

[curious]

I do not work and I gamble all the time. Does this make me a PRO ?

I know you pokernut, you are a hobo, now whether or not you are a professional hobo, I'm not sure.

[pokernut9999]

Lol

[dothisbehappy]

There is only one thing to do....and if you take this advice you will never look back.

Become an affiliate at various Bookmaking and/or Poker operations and then start signing up players. I will let you figure out how to get the players.

Once you get your first player you will be addicted and you will want more. Since you are naturally interested in sports and horses, then finding players will come easily.

Once you start making money with your affiliate programs you can budget whatever percentage you want and gamble with a percentage of your earnings.

You may even want to set up a website and put links and banners up there...maybe add daily commentary and add forums.

You do this with even half an effort (and half a brain), and you will never be asking this question again.

[Dark Horse]

Sports betting is about probabilities. In that, it is no different from any other form of investing. Investing means to have a long term perspective. Not every year will be profitable.

For books about sports betting go to gamblersbook.com. Be careful because a lot of theory is as useful as incomplete. An example is the often praised Kelly system, which looks flawless on paper. It merely overlooks one important detail: Just because you can win near 60% for five or ten years, that doesn't mean you can't have a 40% year. When that happens the Kelly system will destroy you. But it will still look perfect in theory.

[jjgold]

There is only one thing to do....and if you take this advice you will never look back.

Become an affiliate at various Bookmaking and/or Poker operations and then start signing up players. I will let you figure out how to get the players.

Once you get your first player you will be addicted and you will want more. Since you are naturally interested in sports and horses, then finding players will come easily.

Once you start making money with your affiliate programs you can budget whatever percentage you want and gamble with a percentage of your earnings.

You may even want to set up a website and put links and banners up there...maybe add daily commentary and add forums.

You do this with even half an effort (and half a brain), and you will never be asking this question again.

Son those days are over because volume is way down at books, Son what you mentioned is highly illegal and carry the same charges as bookmkaing and if caught your going to jail.

Son I would not advise people to do illegal activities.

[raiders72002]

Son what you mentioned is highly illegal and carry the same charges as bookmkaing and if caught your going to jail.

Son I would not advise people to do illegal activities

Seriously, JJ is correct. Don't do this. You'll get addicted to the money that you can make and it's only a matter of time before you end up in jail.

The only way to do this is to move out of the US.

Also there are weeks that you are going to get beat up by the bettors. You better have the bankroll to pay. You may lose 4 weeks in a row.

[Thremp]

Sports betting is about probabilities. In that, it is no different from any other form of investing. Investing means to have a long term perspective. Not every year will be profitable.

For books about sports betting go to gamblersbook.com. Be careful because a lot of theory is as useful as incomplete. An example is the often praised Kelly system, which looks flawless on paper. It merely overlooks one important detail: Just because you can win near 60% for five or ten years, that doesn't mean you can't have a 40% year. When that happens the Kelly system will destroy you. But it will still look perfect in theory.

I don't know what to say. But this pretty much fits in with the rest of the advice.

FWIW no pro should ever be hitting near 60% long term. If you're hitting that high it should be one of two things 1) you're just a huge lucksack 2) your modeling needs to be refined.

[vanzack]

Some notes:

1. I have learned that 95% of gamblers are undisciplined, ignorant when it comes to math, and are only in it for the rush of gambling. These people lose longterm.

2. Being a professional is a great way of life. No boss, no meetings, no 2 weeks vaca a year, etc... IF you can do it, dont let anyone tell you that the lifestyle is somehow unappealing.

3. The idea of professional gambling is often used as an escape from whatever it is in your current life that you dont like. But most of the time its like someone saying "I hate being a fry cook so I will be a doctor" and then start practicing medicine the next day.

4. People always underestimate not only the amount of learning and work, but the TYPES of learning and work that are relevant to better results. I am amazed by what people think makes someone profitable at gambling. They would rather raise their handicapping percentage one point than decrease their vig percentage 10 points.

5. People do make money, lots of money, and a living for their whole lives gambling.

6. Taking bets is illegal, being an affiliate for a sportsbook is illegal, PLACING BETS IS LEGAL. Stay on the right side of the law.

7. Professionals treat gambling like a business. Detailed records, pay taxes, and even set up a corporation and pay yourself a salary. Get organized.

8. Pro's are able to cut through the myriad of bullshit mines that are strewn about because they have educated themselves about math, probability, and game theory. If you want to understand a piece of this, and just understand how widespread misunderstanding is amongst gamblers, covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779. Its alarming that when presented a better alternative, most will pay more to potentially profit less.

9. For reasons that I dont understand, most people just cant make this all work. They are deficient in one area or another, and for reasons that are sometimes unexplainable they just absolutely cannot follow the script. Just like some people are more prone to be an athlete, I believe some people are more prone to be a profitable gambler.

10. Most people see gambling as a late night infomercial get rich quick deal.

I know all of this because I am a pro, and I used to be a working guy with a what would be considered a great executive job in operations management. I dont think there has ever been one second in time, on my worst day, that I have ever said "I miss that corner office and those douchebag meetings".

GL with whatever you choose.

[Skankdog]

Here are a few simple rules. If you can not go by them, then do not bet.
1) Only make individual bets on one event at a time.
In other words, never bet teasers or parlays
2) Never bet more than 2% of your liquid cash on any given event.
In other words, if you have $500 to your name, then you should be betting $10 a game. So if you bet 20 games a week, you are betting $200 total.
3) Never bet another mans game. Make your decision and go with it.
4) If you are looking for advice, you should not be betting in the first place.

So there you go, if you can not stick with these 4 things, then hang it up BABY!

[LargeMouthBass]

Umm... On a site full of professionals.

Is that what you call your trolling crew? LOL... Go back to 2+2 and talk about arbs and middles you idiot. We don't need trolls like you here.

[AspeK]

We have a lot of pro reading this forum and the others one. Pro in majority don't talk a lot because when we said that we can win long term we got a bunch of people saying that we lie and wants proof etc... Vanzack, me and a lot of peoples who stay anonymous can beat the system. And all the shit about we need 10 sportsbooks is a lie, I use only 2 Pinnacle (im canadian) and Matchbook.

I dont say its easy to do, you need:

1) Discipline
2) Money
3) Knowledge
4) Intelligence

Sorry if this is a pain to read english is my second language, but since 90% of people in this thread think because they cant do it its impossible its not truth. IT IS POSSIBLE but please try with "virtual money" before doing it with real cash.

[durito]

8. Pro's are able to cut through the myriad of bullshit mines that are strewn about because they have educated themselves about math, probability, and game theory. If you want to understand a piece of this, and just understand how widespread misunderstanding is amongst gamblers, covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779. Its alarming that when presented a better alternative, most will pay more to potentially profit less.

[Dark Horse]

FWIW no pro should ever be hitting near 60% long term. If you're hitting that high it should be one of two things 1) you're just a huge lucksack 2) your modeling needs to be refined.

It all depends. Mainly on bet size and time management.

Provided you're not in a losing streak (and have a reliable grasp of streaks), you should bet a lot more on a 60% angle than on a 55% winning expectation. This only works if you have very precise records.

Time management. It wouldn't surprise me if adding 1 percentage point would increase the workload tenfold (somewhat like the Richter scale where one point is a tenfold magnification). Add two percentage points and you might be working 100x more... Not worth it. Keep it simple, and keep a life. (I've not followed this advice, but I will. )

[Not hung up on 60% as such. Just easier to talk about than 58.8%]

[raiders72002]

And all the about we need 10 sportsbooks is a lie, I use only 2 Pinnacle (im canadian) and Matchbook.

So you loved the under in the game tonight but you didn't have BJ in your arsenal. How were you going to get a 47?

# 09/24/2007 7:34PM: o47 -110 / u47 -110
# 09/24/2007 7:50PM: o47 -115 / u47 -105
# 09/24/2007 7:58PM: o47 -118 / u47 -102
# 09/24/2007 8:24PM: o47 -115 / u47 -105
# 09/24/2007 8:31PM: o47 -110 / u47 -110

[Pareto]

8. Pro's are able to cut through the myriad of bullshit mines that are strewn about because they have educated themselves about math, probability, and game theory. If you want to understand a piece of this, and just understand how widespread misunderstanding is amongst gamblers, covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=740779. Its alarming that when presented a better alternative, most will pay more to potentially profit less.

HAHA....brilliant thread. I remember on another forum a guy asking people what he should do after hitting the first 8 games out of a 9-team parlay.

Everyone was telling him that he should hedge the last game. I didn´t disagree with the opinion of the majority, since I would have done the same thing if I by some luck had found this "ticket" on the street. But I was the only one who asked him why he included that last game, if he was gonna hedge it anyway. He didn´t quite understand the foolishness of this. I guess it is hard for some people.

[raiders72002]

why he included that last game, if he was gonna hedge it anyway. He didn´t quite understand the foolishness of this. I guess it is hard for some people.

I agree and almost everyone hedges.

[raiders72002]

Pro in majority don't talk a lot because when we said that we can win long term we got a bunch of people saying that we lie and wants proof etc... Vanzack, me and a lot of peoples who stay anonymous can beat the system.

[RickySteve]

HAHA....brilliant thread. I remember on another forum a guy asking people what he should do after hitting the first 8 games out of a 9-team parlay.

Everyone was telling him that he should hedge the last game. I didn´t disagree with the opinion of the majority, since I would have done the same thing if I by some luck had found this "ticket" on the street. But I was the only one who asked him why he included that last game, if he was gonna hedge it anyway. He didn´t quite understand the foolishness of this. I guess it is hard for some people.

Yes, it is hard for you.

[RickySteve]

I agree and almost everyone hedges.

And you.

[raiders72002]

And you.

1. it's stupid to play that type of parlay.

2. I wouldn't put myself in that position to have to hedge the last game.

3. One of the only times that I consider a hedge advantageous is on a future play.

4. There are a few exceptions. If there has been a line move you may want to hedge.

a) Some parlay cards in Vegas have stale lines. Although the payoffs are horrible, you may make the bet +ev.

[Thremp]

Here are a few simple rules. If you can not go by them, then do not bet.
1) Only make individual bets on one event at a time.
In other words, never bet teasers or parlays
2) Never bet more than 2% of your liquid cash on any given event.
In other words, if you have $500 to your name, then you should be betting $10 a game. So if you bet 20 games a week, you are betting $200 total.
3) Never bet another mans game. Make your decision and go with it.
4) If you are looking for advice, you should not be betting in the first place.

So there you go, if you can not stick with these 4 things, then hang it up BABY!

This is across the board bad. Except for arguably #3. Even then there are exceptions to the rule. 1/2 are just bad bad bad.

[Thremp]

Is that what you call your trolling crew? LOL... Go back to 2+2 and talk about arbs and middles you idiot. We don't need trolls like you here.

You do realize that almost every professional plays a v v large number of middles and arbs and optimal bankroll growth almost always requires you to buy back a portion of a line you've bet previously if it moves forward? So to actually win money optimally you'll be taking a huge number of arbs and middles.

Or are these less "sexy" than handicapping and actually have to do with the nuts and bolts of winning at sports?

Also, I don't think I've trolled anything in my time on this site. I've said that most of the advice in this thread is very poor (it is).

[Ganchrow]

Speaking of hedging, I made a post back in January on using the Kelly criterion to determine optimal hedging strategy.

[austintx05]

I say go for it kid.

The only people that tell you it will run your life are the ones who are not successful.

Listen to vanzack, his advice is top notch.

[Pareto]

@ RickySteve

What is hard for me? Please clarify your comment.

[mr.ed]

One who is considering a career in gambling should read King Yao's new book on sports gambling. It is an excellent read and he points you in the right direction of how to do it.

His book states that it is almost impossible to beat the 52.3% over the long haul simply picking sides, so you need to find other angles. Some that he discusses are half-time lines, 1st 5-inning lines in baseball, and propositions. Bascially, consistently finding value on NFL or College games is next to impossible, unless you have some sort of insider knowledge on injuries..etc.

I believe someone considering a career in gambling should master either golf, Nascar, or tennis. Easier to find value on these sports, but you do need to devote a lot of time to know everything there is to know about the sport you choose. And I mean EVERYTHING if you expect to earn a living. Once you master the sport, you still are going to need multiple outs and must line-shop to get the best possible number.

[Peeig]

Bump....for chitz and gigglez

[iifold]

put this back where it belongs now!!!

[jjgold]

lol what a clown Veags Dave was

[BigdaddyQH]

This is how I started. I was fortunate enough to have relatives who worked Vegas "back in the day". I spent years learning every game from the casino's point if view. I learned how the casino managers turned a profit. I found out the systems that the casino managers hated, and the systems that they loved. I then met the "experts" in the field of Sports Wagering. I was fortunate enough to talk to some of the greats, like Lefty Rosenthal, Jimmy The Greek, and many others. I questoned them to death. I asked everything I could about how you beat the books. I listened. Then I developed my systems. I played very little, or nothing for 5 years. I learned the games that I was best built for, and what games I wanted nothing to do with. All the while, I was working, and making enough money so when I decided to give gaming a serious shot, I had money that I could afford to lose. This took me about 10 years. When I finally started wagering on a regular basis, I started slowly. When I wagered, it was in Vegas. I spent a lot of time at the Stardust, which was the hottest sports book in town back then. I would spend hours in the book, wagering a couple of bucks on a horse, in hopes of running into people who really knew the games. (Baseball, Football, etc...) I refined my interests and decided to concentrate exclusively on Football. I talked to every sharp, tout, ticket writer, and book manager that I could, both at the Stardust, and at Caesars Palace, where I normally stayed. You could say, I earned my degree in football wagering.

What I would tell you is two things. First, it is going to take time, and by time, I mean years, not months, to develop a system, and refine it so you are comfortable with it and it starts returning profits. You must have a ton of patience. You must realize that sometimes, the best wager is no wager at all. You must break yourself of "having to have action" on a televised game. Next, you have to have enough money to be able to survive comfortably if things go wrong. The more you have to worry about losing money, the worse your judgements are going to be. Everyone wants to win, but you must be able to accept the fact that you are going to make sound, solid wagers and lose. That is why they call it Gambling. It takes a lot of self control. One other thing. If you lose a game, you must forget about it. Do not use the excuse that the ref's gave the game away, the HC made a bonehead call, the QB threw a dumb int, or any of the thousands of excuses guys in here will give you when they lose a wager on a game. The bottom line is simple. You lost the wager because you wagered on the wrong team. You have to accept that, or you will drive yourself nuts. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. If your system is sound, you will do well overall. The "Bad" beats and the "Bad" wins even out. You just never remember the wins.

[iifold]

[durito]

This is how I started. I was fortunate enough to have relatives who worked Vegas "back in the day". I spent years learning every game from the casino's point if view. I learned how the casino managers turned a profit. I found out the systems that the casino managers hated, and the systems that they loved. I then met the "experts" in the field of Sports Wagering. I was fortunate enough to talk to some of the greats, like Lefty Rosenthal, Jimmy The Greek, and many others. I questoned them to death. I asked everything I could about how you beat the books. I listened. Then I developed my systems. I played very little, or nothing for 5 years. I learned the games that I was best built for, and what games I wanted nothing to do with. All the while, I was working, and making enough money so when I decided to give gaming a serious shot, I had money that I could afford to lose. This took me about 10 years. When I finally started wagering on a regular basis, I started slowly. When I wagered, it was in Vegas. I spent a lot of time at the Stardust, which was the hottest sports book in town back then. I would spend hours in the book, wagering a couple of bucks on a horse, in hopes of running into people who really knew the games. (Baseball, Football, etc...) I refined my interests and decided to concentrate exclusively on Football. I talked to every sharp, tout, ticket writer, and book manager that I could, both at the Stardust, and at Caesars Palace, where I normally stayed. You could say, I earned my degree in football wagering.

What I would tell you is two things. First, it is going to take time, and by time, I mean years, not months, to develop a system, and refine it so you are comfortable with it and it starts returning profits. You must have a ton of patience. You must realize that sometimes, the best wager is no wager at all. You must break yourself of "having to have action" on a televised game. Next, you have to have enough money to be able to survive comfortably if things go wrong. The more you have to worry about losing money, the worse your judgements are going to be. Everyone wants to win, but you must be able to accept the fact that you are going to make sound, solid wagers and lose. That is why they call it Gambling. It takes a lot of self control. One other thing. If you lose a game, you must forget about it. Do not use the excuse that the ref's gave the game away, the HC made a bonehead call, the QB threw a dumb int, or any of the thousands of excuses guys in here will give you when they lose a wager on a game. The bottom line is simple. You lost the wager because you wagered on the wrong team. You have to accept that, or you will drive yourself nuts. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. If your system is sound, you will do well overall. The "Bad" beats and the "Bad" wins even out. You just never remember the wins.

You almost never fail to disappoint.

[MadTiger]

You almost never fail to disappoint.

Yeah, BigDaddy brings it strong pretty much every time.