That is just the way I did it. If anyone has a better system, please post it. The one think I have noticed is how people spend hours determining the best vig, the best books to wager in, and all kinds of other probabilities, but never do 5 minutes worth of work on the TEAMS that are playing the game. You can get the greatest vig in the world on a game, but if Team A is at -102, it is not going to help you at all if Team A is ging to get their tails handed to them by Team B. Sure people would like to get a break in the vig, but knowing the probability of a teams success is much more important than a couple of points on the vig.
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vegas dave.... what a wasteComment -
Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
I'm confused first you say that guys waste their time determining probabilities and than go on to say that the line you get is useless if you do not know the probability of the team winning
No offense but this whole post makes no sense first thing first you need to examine the teams and while doing so you are estimating your probability. Second you need to shop books to get the best line possible, a 5 cent difference on the lines you are betting will decrease your losses long term by 5%, I am not sure why anybody would discredit the importance of this. And finally you do not make a bet if the win % required to break even is higher than your projected win probability.
Who knows maybe you have become a very successful handicapper by just picking teams and betting with no regards to probability and win %, but this is not sound advice for anybody else.Comment -
You can't gamble professionally,
But you can bet professionally..
Everybody should ask this question to himself, Am I a gambler? or I'm a Sports Bettor? A sports bettor who is playing with %2-3 of his bankroll (no 6-game parlays, no going all-in) with realistic goals/targets is not very different then a stock trader in my opinion.
Gambling and Betting are different things in my book..Comment -
Originally posted by Sawyer
well said!
it is very possible to be a pro bettorComment -
DON'T.BET.IF.YOUR.NOT.AFRAID.TO.GAMBLE.T HOUGH
SOMETIMES,THE.CRAZY.ILLOGICAL.BET.WINS.A ND.IT.CAN.PAY+EV.BIGTIME...
SO,YOU.HAVE.TO.BE.READY.TO.GET.STUPID.SO METIMES.
I.STILL.THINK.IT.BEATS.HAVING.A.JOB.
CAPPING.IS.EASY.BUT.DRIVING.TO.THE.BOOK. CAN.GET.OLD,AND.THE.BOOKS.CAN.GET.BORING/DEPRESSING,ETC.IF.YOUR.THERE.ALL.THE.TIM Eblog '09-'10: 37-16: +$31,900
mlb 2010; 16-12: +$4,540
gellyhoops 2010: 10-6 +$3,150
overall: 63-34 +$40,290Comment -
It can be done and there are pros out there..............dont let any1 bring u down and do what u believe is right! Ur gut/heart will guide uComment -
Patience.Discipline.Bankroll is GOD.Comment -
Don't spend too much time on one game, because the game is already capped for you. And by now you should already have a firm grasp on which books offer the best lines, so shopping around shouldn't commandeer much time.
Time in sports betting, almost just as much if not more than anything else, is opportunity cost. Any effort exerted should be proportional to your implied payout.
All your data, or whatever method you choose to formulate a system of measuring statistics and numbers, should at its core triangulate around the spread and the betting market itself. If its not, then all you are setting out to do is to trying to beat the linesmakers, which is not a winning proposition. (Unless you are inclined to bet Swedish B-League soccer or some obscure sport/league where the market has yet to assert itself)
Find a way to stabilize your emotions, practice indifference. The emotional magnitude of a loss is 2.5x that of a gain, therefore some sort of purely objective and as one post said "sagacious laziness" has to play a part in your attitude and style.
The futures market can be a very useful convenience to invest in. Futures market when handled with a sharp sense of understanding and some obvious luck, can provide solid hedging opportunities, which breeds positive gains, guaranteed, from both a pecuniary and emotional standpoint.
In my opinion, one other thing is don't follow the games, emotion penetrates the entire enterprise when you see a horrible beat or dreadful luck play out in one of the games you put money on. Just quit following the sport you bet on, from a fan's perspective. The goal is pure objectivity.Comment -
yes listen to this guy let your emotions carry you lmaoOriginally posted by Winner_13Comment -
Going pro.............Its a tough way to make an easy living.Comment -
You need to keep gambling in the entertainment side of your life. As soon as you need a wager to come through to pay a bill, you lose all handicapping ability. Not to mention the anxiety and stress you will go through. It's a slippery slope, not worth it, even if you end up making enough cash.Comment -
I just read through 4 pages of this thread and came away with 0. Should have stayed buried. I hope VegasDave gave it a shot and is killing it.Comment -
... and this shouldn't be in the Think Tank.Comment -
I.disagree.
You.should.watch.the.games.
Watch.a.bunch.of.games.
I.think.if.you.don't.have.money.on.it,th en.just.watch.for.offensive.skill.blog '09-'10: 37-16: +$31,900
mlb 2010; 16-12: +$4,540
gellyhoops 2010: 10-6 +$3,150
overall: 63-34 +$40,290Comment -
bigdaddyQH....good.post
I.agree.with.the.misplaced.focus.of.bett ers.on.lines.and.not.teams.
Certain.teams.have.certain.patterns.that .you.can.notice.after.awhileblog '09-'10: 37-16: +$31,900
mlb 2010; 16-12: +$4,540
gellyhoops 2010: 10-6 +$3,150
overall: 63-34 +$40,290Comment -
a few good posts in hereComment -
Everyone has a different way/strategy. For example, some people are making by trading so watching the game is a must. However, I'm a strong believer in mechanical systems. We should never pick a game on our own, based on our opinion. All our picks should be based on a system, numbers. Therefore, watching the game is not important. Just study/handicap the game and if it suits your system, play it! Good thing about having a system is, you won't search games, games will come to you. If there's a game suits your system, play it. If no play, then skip. This way you can stay emotionless all the time.Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE
But of course everyone has a different strategy. You can be succesful with other methods as well but having a mechanical system, makes it easier to stay emotionles all the time. You can make wrong decisions in pressure, specially during a losing streak. However, if you have a good system, your plays won't be effected by your emotional pressure and gut feelings..Comment -
Some good posts in this thread. My advice would be forget about gambling as a profession. Use your time to plan and then start your own business. No one would consider being a professional coin-flip predictor or a professional 3 card monty player right? Don't waste your time gambling and handicapping. Its a game played for fun not a profession.Comment -
Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
Well said. I personally don't understand all the hours of reasearch people out into capping a game but different things work for different people.
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Vegas Dave.....
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