I'm getting serious about writing my book...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Is there a term in gambling similar to the efficient market hypothesis?

Absolutely. Sports markets are the same, simply less efficient. This is why the closing number is regarded as the true probability for a particular contest and why the closing lines are historically unbiased at high volume books. Adding more players simply creates less opportunity at obtaining value. It is entirely self defeating.

[MonkeyF0cker]

seems it's likely to be useful and interesting and should not be released, or
boring and pointless and should not be released.

how about a fictional memoir instead?

Exactly. I was going to post something similar earlier but a bit more derogatory.

[CarpeDime]

Exactly. I was going to post something similar earlier but a bit more derogatory.

post away bro, dont hold back

dont be afraid of justin just cause hes smart! let him have it!

[MonkeyF0cker]

It is not, and it never will be (at least from me or the author).

So is this "top secret information" something that effects a particular sport on a constant basis (hard to believe) or historical data for Bayesian inference? Certainly you could reveal at least that much...

[Justin7]

i would steal it from barnes and nobles for sure. Are you still winning though J7?
I agree 70+% of it is dry modeling and statistics/research.
the 'creative part' i say is when you are in the zone, or it's best to be creative when you are in the zone, and not when you are unplugged.
Do you ever post plays dude, no offense, I'd like to see a few plays (just throw us some scraps, ya know)..

I have given out a mere 141 plays (on my spreadsheet), and hit over 57%.

Math is not creative. Developing new ways to attack a sport is. What assumptions do you dare try? How can you reasonably test them? How can I exploit a weakness the longest without educating a sportsbook? There are no simple quantitative answers, but there's definitely right and wrong approaches.

[tullamore]

So is this "top secret information" something that effects a particular sport on a constant basis (hard to believe) or historical data for Bayesian inference? Certainly you could reveal at least that much...

This info can't really be "top secret", its more lets milk the cow for whats it worth, before the info before becomes more available.

[jellobiafra]

F0cker, calm down!

You act like Justin is going to be taking food out of your mouth. Chances are that most of the small percentage of gamblers who read this potential book will either already know about the things he's going to cover, or won't have the wherewithal to use it.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Sorry, but this can't be anything but ego driven. If someone really enjoyed teaching, they'd do it 1 on 1. They wouldn't write a textbook. And the notion that "contacts" would offer greater opportunity at the expense of higher efficiency (and at the expense of others who model) is laughable.

[poker_dummy101]

F0cker, calm down!

You act like Justin is going to be taking food out of your mouth. Chances are that most of the small percentage of gamblers who read this potential book will either already know about the things he's going to cover, or won't have the wherewithal to use it.

Poker books and strategies were out for a while too.. boom and everyone is making training websites, tutorials, videos = less fish and more people playing to make money.. I'm not saying its not beatable anymore because it certainly is, but with each step it becomes less and less.

Maybe that's whats next.. sports betting tutorial videos with monthly access fees.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

j7, didn't see you're spreadsheet. Mines in the PZ, but I'm only like 53%. My blog plays are 100% though (8-0) so far.
I agree, attacking a sport one way or another is the part, where you can get creative.
I've thought of one system (for all sports) and one hockey (NHL) system. I will give them a try. But i'm not disclosing them yet (although they probably aren't new, haven't seen them posted).

[Justin7]

Sorry, but this can't be anything but ego driven. If someone really enjoyed teaching, they'd do it 1 on 1. They wouldn't write a textbook. And the notion that "contacts" would offer greater opportunity at the expense of higher efficiency (and at the expense of others who model) is laughable.

Do you know how much money I've made from the "$20 geniuses" that feed me information? Do you do *any* networking at all?

[MonkeyF0cker]

F0cker, calm down!

You act like Justin is going to be taking food out of your mouth. Chances are that most of the small percentage of gamblers who read this potential book will either already know about the things he's going to cover, or won't have the wherewithal to use it.

Why do you think there isn't a single book out there that addresses this topic? Think. And yes, higher efficiency means less opportunity. So it would directly effect me and my livlihood.

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

I agree with keeping things on the hush.
Once you disclose something, it's a world wide web, and I think you definitely lose a slight edge from your attack.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Do you know how much money I've made from the "$20 geniuses" that feed me information? Do you do *any* networking at all?

No. I guess I need to write a fukkin book and give a bunch of free money away to the world in order to "network."

[Justin7]

I doubt any modeling content would cost you money. It takes 100's of hours plus a mix of skills (data scraping, stats and programming) to accomplish anything. And many efforts are rewarded with a 0 or -EV model. Why did I stop doing NFL videos with Loshak? Because my model "failed". The ability to identify a model failure is tremendously valuable to a handicapper, but will cost other sharps next to nothing.

[MonkeyF0cker]

No idea, Justin. I don't watch your videos. But an NFL model failed? LOL. Come on. I would be far more concerned with DB related material and other things than modeling.

[Justin7]

No idea, Justin. I don't watch your videos. But an NFL model failed? LOL. Come on. I would be far more concerned with DB related material and other things than modeling.

If you aren't modeling, you are leaving a TON of money on the table. A good database will pick up a lot. In smaller sports (meaning anything outside of NFL, NBA and MLB), a model is more valuable than trading or database generated bets.

[Justin7]

No idea, Justin. I don't watch your videos. But an NFL model failed? LOL. Come on. I would be far more concerned with DB related material and other things than modeling.

Model failures. I had a -6 sigma model failure in MLB. There were ballads written by bards of my ingenious failure. I had offers of a lot of money to fade it (I declined, because fading it was not likely to generate profits going forward).

NFL model failure. I've had 2 different efforts "fail" - meaning that when all was said and done, no math geek would back it. I think the one this year went 3-0 before I pulled the plug.

Seriously, why the angst?

[20Four7]

I doubt any modeling content would cost you money. It takes 100's of hours plus a mix of skills (data scraping, stats and programming) to accomplish anything. And many efforts are rewarded with a 0 or -EV model. Why did I stop doing NFL videos with Loshak? Because my model "failed". The ability to identify a model failure is tremendously valuable to a handicapper, but will cost other sharps next to nothing.

When you realize your model is failing and you get out it's important..... As much as I'm up on the NFL but not much the last 2 weeks makes me scratch my head as to why I bet. I will probably carry on with things only because I still think what I do is right. I'd be more than willing to read justin's book only to see if there are things I can do to improve..... the only thing my model is getting right is the over/unders and very few plays come up there.

[Swinging Johnson]

Justin,

I have just completed a novel. Remarkably, I have attracted the attention of a major Hollywood talent to turn it into a screenplay. I prefer to shop it in the spring to agents as a book but am finding it difficult to resist the lure of it being a movie before it becomes a book. If it ever becomes a movie there is virtually no chance of it becoming a book and I have put far too much time into the quality of the prose than to see it diminished by someone else scripting it for the silver screen. I know, I should be so lucky right? However, that's the way I feel and I think ultimately, the project will turn out better because of it. I wish you all the luck in the world. You're a very smart guy and I'm sure luck is something you won't need.

[MonkeyF0cker]

If you aren't modeling, you are leaving a TON of money on the table. A good database will pick up a lot. In smaller sports (meaning anything outside of NFL, NBA and MLB), a model is more valuable than trading or database generated bets.

Umm. Seriously? Why are you telling me this?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Model failures. I had a -6 sigma model failure in MLB. There were ballads written by bards of my ingenious failure. I had offers of a lot of money to fade it (I declined, because fading it was not likely to generate profits going forward).

NFL model failure. I've had 2 different efforts "fail" - meaning that when all was said and done, no math geek would back it. I think the one this year went 3-0 before I pulled the plug.

Seriously, why the angst?

I'd be pretty fukkin dumb if I wasn't hostile to the idea of some guy writing a book that could potentially cut into my bottom line. Wouldn't I?

[wal66]

Justin7, sorry for the crack about JJ and Bread making your book funny. It appears funny won't be an issue from the cross section of this thread. In fact many of us would have to go back or go to college period to understand what the heck it's all about. Any chance after this you might consider a Gambling for Dummies version with LOTS of pictures. Most of us simpltons just can't comprehend what you smart guys consider a simple read or funny. If you're looking to write a book for profit as the main objective then you have to consider the fact there are more of us Average Joe's than you really smart guys. What you assume to be standard or basic thinking is severely over the comprehension level of most. If you aren't able to dumb it down then your target market is majorly reduced as is your profit margin.

There are some seriously smart guys here at SBR ( I use SBR merely as a cross section ) who will understand and even be able to expand on any ideas you may throw at them but I tend to think there are more that will see what you write and be more confused than understanding. This was why I suggested the efforts of a common man type i.e. JJ or a Bread or basically any number of people who can relate to a more diverse demographic. I was trying to be funny but in a helpful way.

[Matt Rain]

He already wrote a book.

He did not. That book by James Jeffries is a mere coincidence.

[jellobiafra]

Is the hissy fit over?

[tacomax]

He did not. That book by James Jeffries is a mere coincidence.

Of course it is.

[Chuck Sims]

I'd like to see a debunking of the myth that all books do is seek a balance of money on both sides of all games. Maybe some information about how to sniff out fishy lines and line movement. Stories on point about that, etc.

The myth is that books put out a line to attract one sided action because they know who is going to cover. The last time a book put out a line to attract one sided action on a super bowl was Aces Gold. They gambled, they lost. 2 weeks later they closed their doors and stiffed everyone.

[MonkeyF0cker]

Is the hissy fit over?

Fuk off, retard. How about you spend years perfecting a recipe and opening up a restaurant. You make good money but then some guy shows up outside your restaurant one day giving away your recipe and the ingredients so people can cook the exact same thing at home for pennies. How would you feel? There is nothing worse than someone giving something away that wasn't his in the first place.

Not like I should expect you to understand the threat of someone completely ruining years of hard work. You sit around here begging for plays and handouts from us anyway.

[durito]

How many sportsbooks would still offer +100 2 team teasers if sharp sports betting wasn't published?

[MonkeyF0cker]

Probably everyone, durito. That's why I'm so opposed. I've seen the same thing happen to poker. The game is NOWHERE near as easy as it used to be to beat. Not only could a book on modeling help create more efficient markets but also much less value in openers. It makes ZERO sense.

[Bread]

MF...I would never give out my spoke-making secrets. FUKK THAT!

Bitch ass fools always trying to get my secrets, why my alloy be flossin.

I don't think so. It's just bad for business. I feel ya.

[BigDaddy]

Probably everyone, durito. That's why I'm so opposed. I've seen the same thing happen to poker. The game is NOWHERE near as easy as it used to be to beat. Not only could a book on modeling help create more efficient markets but also much less value in openers. It makes ZERO sense.

stop crying

the guys that sell books sell them for a reason.

[MonkeyF0cker]

stop crying

the guys that sell books sell them for a reason.

Yeah, because they want their tiny egos stroked. Odd that all of you squares want things made easier for you. You don't see one sharp on here supporting this idea.

[BigDaddy]

Yeah, because they want their tiny egos stroked. Odd that all of you squares want things made easier for them. You don't see one sharp on here supporting this idea.

so you are sharp

ok if you say so

i will add you to my list of posters i need to read

thanks for the info

[MonkeyF0cker]

You wouldn't know sharp if you got stabbed in the fukkin forehead, BigMama.