Sucks for Belichick that the vast majority of America sucks at 4th grade level math

[pavyracer]

And what is the true probability that the Colts drive ~70 yards in under 2 minutes to score a TD with 1 TO and the game on the line vs NE's defense. If you can't give me an accurate number for that then this is all moot, imo.

Also what's the probability of faking a punt and converting, muffing the punt by Colts and recovering by Patriots, fumbling the return by Colts, commiting a penalty at the return and pushing the start up from Colts 10 yard line, Colts returning the punt for a TD giving the Patriots enough time to set up for a winning FG, having a high snap on the punt resulting in the ball in the end zone and kicked out by the kicker for a safety with Patriots kicking off, roughing the kicker on the punt, being offside before the punt resulting in a 1st down by Patriots, blocking the punt by Colts and scoring a TD with enough time for Patriots to set up winning FG?

[poker_dummy101]

Are you serious?! Is this a serious question?! Do you seriously think the defenses change on 4th and 2 anywhere between the redzones?



Stunned at the stupidity.

Don't disagree with you, but no need to be a fkin asshole about it

[Sekrah]

I've been to several forums reading comments, and not surprisingly the forums with the most consensus that this was the correct call has been Poker Forums.

It's 50/50 on most sports gambling forums, about 10/90 in favor of calling Belichick an idiot on the ESPN and Yahoo forums filled with braindead retards.

This is a highlight of why the books are swimming in dollars every year while these losers hit Reload. THEY DON'T KNOW MATH.

[Sekrah]

Don't disagree with you, but no need to be a fkin asshole about it

I'm frustrated beyond belief with these people.

If you were to write a book on Sports Gambling, you would be far better off to leave the mathematical certainties out of it. It would just bore the reader and it wouldn't sell very good. Just pack it full of idiotic trends and you'll have a bestseller.

[poker_dummy101]

I'm frustrated beyond belief with these people.

If you were to write a book on Sports Gambling, you would be far better off to leave the mathematical certainties out of it. It would just bore the reader and it wouldn't sell very good. Just pack it full of idiotic trends and you'll have a bestseller.

Missed it i guess thanks

[Sam Odom]

I'm frustrated beyond belief with these people.

Because you dont have enough pertinent facts/stats to backup your claim yet you state your claim as a statistical certainty

[jellobiafra]

Against that winded Pats D that got sliced all 4th quarter, 50%, possibly as high as 60-65%.

The more important question is, how often/long does it take for Manning to get the Colts to the New England 29 yard line? I am very confident he gets there in under 1 minute 90-95% of the time, with a timeout still in his pocket.

The odds of Pats converting the 4th and 2 were greater than 50%. Simple as that.

Hey math guy....where are you getting these figures from? Anybody can tell you what they think they are, but I thought you math guys actually depended on true statistics...not your gut. How are you coming up with these numbers? Especially the "Manning...gets there in under 1 minute 90-95% of the time, with a timeout still in his pocket." What kind of ridiculousness is that?!?

The only mistake Belichick made was not instructing his team to let the Colts score on that first play.

Hey smarter than everybody guy, you really think it that would have been wise? There was contact around the 5 yard line. They needed a TD to win. You don't think they should have tried to keep them out of the endzone from the 5 yard line? Just let them score so you can get the ball back with 45 seconds left and 1 time out? LOL. Why didn't Belichik just punt the ball and let the Colts run it back for a TD? He would have gotten the ball back with a 1st down and almost 2 minutes left.

Go ahead, call me a moron now.


EDIT: The first play was a 15 yard pass down the middle of the field. You really think he should have just let them score from the 28 on the first play? And we are the morons??

[FishFace5]

SEKRAH. . We're having a discussion. This is clearly a very debatable topic, feel free to support your opinion but don't act like anything your saying is factual or even intelligent for that matter. Those stats you pulled directly out of your ass above are laughable. Your talking like you've never watched a down of football in your life. Are you suggesting that all good offenses should now go for it on 4th and 2 from there own 28.

[jellobiafra]

You know I think on 4th down they should have just hiked the ball, layed it on the ground, and run to the sideline. That way the Colts score in as little time as possible and the Patriots get a 1st down after the kickoff, only needing a field goal to win and still have 1 TO.

Math is awesome!

[Jerm3462]

I've been watching football for 21 years now, and I've never seen a team with playoff/homefield on the line make a decision like that.
I can see if it was at midfield, or if the KC Chiefs did it next week, but a division leader? Coach single handedly lost game for his club.
I laughed, I'm a Dolphins fan. Will definatly never forget what I watched last night.

[Sekrah]

Because you dont have enough pertinent facts/stats to backup your claim yet you state your claim as a statistical certainty

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4671

Really.. I could spend here all day trying to explain it to you. Your mind is set in stone and not going to change.

[Sekrah]

I've been watching football for 21 years now, and I've never seen a team with playoff/homefield on the line make a decision like that.
I can see if it was at midfield, or if the KC Chiefs did it next week, but a division leader? Coach single handedly lost game for his club.
I laughed, I'm a Dolphins fan. Will definatly never forget what I watched last night.

LOL.. Add another Braindead Retard into the pile.

[Sekrah]

SEKRAH. . We're having a discussion. This a clearly a very debatable topic, feel free to support your opinion but don't act like anything your saying is factual or even intelligent for that matter. Those stats you pulled directly out of your ass above are laughable. Your talking like you've never watched a down of football in your life. Are you suggesting that all good offenses should now go for it on 4th and 2 from there own 28.

Wrong. It's not debatable. The debate on 4th downs ended on this along time ago when UC Berkely professor David Romey solved it.

Are you suggesting that all good offenses should now go for it on 4th and 2 from there own 28.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/09/17/a-new-study-on-fourth-downs-go-for-it/

Every single serious study of 4th-down decisions has found that teams would be better off by going for the conversion attempt rather than kicking.

[jellobiafra]

Sekrah, you have made the single dumbest statement in this entire thread:

The only mistake Belichick made was not instructing his team to let the Colts score on that first play.

You are saying the Pats should have allowed the Colts to score a TD from the 28 yard line on the first play of that drive.


Why don't you stop talking for a little while. Just sit a few plays out champ.

[Sam Odom]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4671 Really.. I could spend here all day trying to explain it to you. Your mind is set in stone and not going to change.

Again , IMO , you cannot use "average conversion rate" in this instance

[jellobiafra]

Sam, you wouldn't understand. Our brains are roughly half the size of theirs.

It's science.

[Jerm3462]

The only mistake Belichick made was not instructing his team to let the Colts score on that first play.

Ok your calling me brain-dead?
You'd instruct your team to let the other team score?
You obviously either have downs syndrome or know knothing about football.

[FishFace5]

. STOP IT. Have you ever watched football??? Do you understand the rules??? I'm done trying to have a FOOTBALL discussion with you. Even your math whiz buddies are embarrassed of you now. Beat it chump.

[Sekrah]

You are saying the Pats should have allowed the Colts to score a TD from the 28 yard line on the first play of that drive.

Wow you guys really are braindead.

Pats driving and kicking a field goal with 1:50 left >>> Pats stopping Colts from the 30 with 2:00 left.

Let's say Pats convert 4th and 2 at 65%
Colts score from the 30, 80% of the time.
Colts score from the 70, 35% of the time. (could be higher the way the Pats D was winded)

Going for it gives Pats 72% to win.
Punting it gives Pats 65% to win.

Lower the Pats probability to 60% to convert, and Pats are still 68% to convert and win.

Haven't coem up with the probability of Pats getting into field goal range to kick a game winner, but it's far more likely than the 20% chance of stopping the Colts from 30.

Why don't you guys try learning math instead of handicapping sports with your Geico Caveman methods.

[johncrud]

Sorry not everyone suck in math... You have to wonder why Asian countries are rising while White countries are declining in the 21th century. Black and latino countries always stay the SAME in the past, present and future..(sarcastic).

SAT avg

Asian: 600
White: 550

Latinos + Blacks: around 250 (you have to realized that 200 points are given)

[durito]

if you didn't get above 750 on the math portion of the sat you are slightly retarded

[FishFace5]

You and sekrah should be friends.

[Willie Bee]

Game was fixed guys, let it go and head back out to the playground to have some fun with your friends.

[Sekrah]

You and sekrah should be friends.

Thanks for responding my post. I figured the math would blow a circuit in your brain.

[SBR Lou]

Math geeks will love to theorize in this situation, you can paint any picture you want with different statistics, but the fact is what Belichick did last night likely made Bill Walsh roll in his grave.

Here's a statistic I'm interested in- how many 'respected' head coaches in the history of the NFL have ever went for it on 4th and 2 up one score or less in their OWN territory?

[Sekrah]

Math geeks will love to theorize in this situation, you can paint any picture you want with different statistics, but the fact is what Belichick did last night likely made Bill Walsh roll in his grave.

Here's a statistic I'm interested in- how many 'respected' head coaches in the history of the NFL have ever went for it on 4th and 2 up one score or less in their OWN territory?

What does this prove? That 4th down decision making to date in the NFL has been horrendous?? I lean towards head coaches being scared to death to make the correct decision in fear of getting bashed by math illiterates in the media and in the stands.

[Sam Odom]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/271597-should-nfl-team-ever-punt-4th-short-against-indy-colts.html

[Sekrah]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...ndy-colts.html

Thanks for replying to my math post. I'm glad to see I shorted a fuse in your brain as well.

[kp126]

Game was fixed guys, let it go and head back out to the playground to have some fun with your friends.

fixed so that colts win and Pats cover the spread? or fixed as in no betting interests but somebody wanted colts 9-0? because it make no sense to fix a game for one team to win and not cover the spread.

[Mudcat]

Sometimes guys like to play Devil's advocate and today that means defending Belichek's bonehead call.

The attempted mathematical defense of Belichek has more holes than Swiss cheese. I studied Calculus and Statistics at University of Toronto if my credentials are required to participate in this discussion.

[spongerat]

Here's a statistic I'm interested in- how many 'respected' head coaches in the history of the NFL have ever went for it on 4th and 2 up one score or less in their OWN territory?

and how many times have you seen a team snap it out the end of the endzone to give the other team a safety on purpose just so they can then kick it down to the other end of the field and pin them there?

[Sekrah]

Sometimes guys like to play Devil's advocate and today that means defending Belichek's bonehead call.

The attempted mathematical defense of Belichek has more holes than Swiss cheese. I studied Calculus and Statistics at University of Toronto if my credentials are required to participate in this discussion.

Please slice it up captain. We're waiting patiently genius.

[poker_dummy101]

Wow you guys really are braindead.

Pats driving and kicking a field goal with 1:50 left >>> Pats stopping Colts from the 30 with 2:00 left.

Let's say Pats convert 4th and 2 at 65%
Colts score from the 30, 80% of the time.
Colts score from the 70, 35% of the time. (could be higher the way the Pats D was winded)

Going for it gives Pats 72% to win.
Punting it gives Pats 65% to win.

Lower the Pats probability to 60% to convert, and Pats are still 68% to convert and win.

Haven't coem up with the probability of Pats getting into field goal range to kick a game winner, but it's far more likely than the 20% chance of stopping the Colts from 30.

Why don't you guys try learning math instead of handicapping sports with your Geico Caveman methods.

Punting was determined to give the Colts a 70% chance to win. If the Pats convert at 60% then it is better to punt.

Colts scoring 80% from the 30 is not likely though

[JoshW]

if you didn't get above 750 on the math portion of the sat you are slightly retarded

I guess that is 90% of the college aspiring public.

[donjuan]

Sometimes guys like to play Devil's advocate and today that means defending Belichek's bonehead call.

The attempted mathematical defense of Belichek has more holes than Swiss cheese. I studied Calculus and Statistics at University of Toronto if my credentials are required to participate in this discussion.

Trolling FTL.