Sucks for Belichick that the vast majority of America sucks at 4th grade level math

[poker_dummy101]

yisman, i stopped reading when you said conversation rate of 75%

[poker_dummy101]

Good article talking about the math probabilities of each decision.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/defending-belichicks-fourth-down-decision/?emc=eta1

Also Ernie Adams most likely is the one who told Belichick that the odds were in the Pats favor if they went for it.

Don Juan already posted this, and those numbers are irrelevant pertaining to this game imo

[yisman]

yisman, i stopped reading when you said conversation rate of 75%

It's true. That's not the NFL conversion rate, but it is the approximate rate when NE plays the Colts.

The Colts almost never stop them in 3rd or 4th and short. Look it up.

If NE hadn't had so much success in the past in those situations, I'm sure he would've chosen to punt.

[Wheell]

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=4665

This is pretty much solved. Belichick was correct.

[FishFace5]

You math guys are so goofy. Solved?? 4th and 2 from your own 28 with 2 minutes remaining and a lead is a punting situation. PERIOD. Plain and simple. End of story.

[durito]

You math guys are so goofy. Solved?? 4th and 2 from your own 28 with 2 minutes remaining and a lead is a punting situation. PERIOD. Plain and simple. End of story.

lol

how fat is the envelope you are handing over this week?

[coldhardfacts]

Belichick is playing chess while everyone else (with the exception of Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin) is playing checkers. Anyone who has any understanding of probablility knows it was the right move.

If people want to look for real imbeciles, look no further than Jim Caldwell, who went for a two point conversion the week before when a kick would have given him a 12 point lead. The guy has been around football his whole life and he still doesn't understand that moving the differential from 11 to 12 is HUGE - much greater than from 12 to 13.


Or Sean Payton, who could have essentially run out the clock last Monday night but instead decided not to do so, and ultimately gave the Falcons a chance to win. (But it's pretty obvious that he had "ulterior motives" and didn't want to win by 11 points, so I guess HE wasn't the dumb one - it was the millions of people watching the game who couldn't figure out what was going on.)

[tblues2005]

You math guys are so goofy. Solved?? 4th and 2 from your own 28 with 2 minutes remaining and a lead is a punting situation. PERIOD. Plain and simple. End of story.

I just did not understand why they went for it at that time. The Pats deserved to lose when they did not make the first down.

[poker_dummy101]

It's true. That's not the NFL conversion rate, but it is the approximate rate when NE plays the Colts.

The Colts almost never stop them in 3rd or 4th and short. Look it up.

If NE hadn't had so much success in the past in those situations, I'm sure he would've chosen to punt.

Years past do no matter as much as their stats this year.

That play made them 5-11 on the season on 4th downs. I did not look up the stats on how many yards they needed on each and what team they played however. But, if they are 50% on the season and they are playing a better defensive team than average, that accounts for something as well.

To come up with some random number to plug in there or any other place seems way off to me and have to go with logical thinking not statistical. Not enough data points to come to a right or wrong answer statistically.

And the punt yardage is just laughable. They are not taking into account they are playing in a dome. This isn't cold ass new england or pittsburgh.. the punter averaged 44 yds/kick that night, wasn't the last one for 51yds? Maybe some of the others he was trying to pin them deep and could not kick full (did not look that up). The Colts had no return yardage on punts in that game. For the Colts series to start on the 34yd line is generous.

[poker_dummy101]

Belichick is playing chess while everyone else (with the exception of Andy Reid and Tom Coughlin) is playing checkers. Anyone who has any understanding of probablility knows it was the right move.

Please show me your probability and how you came up with your numes instead of just agreeing with someone.

Noone has come up with sound evidence.

[lakerboy]

But yisman is right ne has converted 78% agaisnt colts on those situations

[Sam Odom]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/271541-peyton-manning-won-game-before-last-td.html

[TheLock]

It's a really simple math problem on whether or not to go for it in that situation. All you need is to assign probabilities to the following:

Chance of getting a first down on 4th and 2
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from 30 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from ~70 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Pats coming back and scoring when the Colts score (should be slightly higher when not punting because the Colts will tend to score faster)

Hint: even with estimates ridiculously biased towards punting, going for it is still the correct answer by a country mile.

This also ignores blocked punts and long punt returns.

I don't disagree that going for it was the right decision but how is this 4th grade math?

[poker_dummy101]

I have no doubt that I am probably wrong, but I'm going to have to agree to disagree on this one because I don't think anyone can show me enough data points to make it a statistical certainty to go for it.

[pavyracer]

Pretty soon at a bookstore near you: "How to lose a football game by applying statistics instead of common sense to your game plan" by Bill Belichek

[Sam Odom]

I have no doubt that I am probably wrong, but I'm going to have to agree to disagree on this one because I don't think anyone can show me enough data points to make it a statistical certainty to go for it.

I agree

Show me the stats for going for it (4th & 2) inside your OWN 30 then I may give it credibility however the sampling is so small it has no weight

[Sekrah]

Bottom line - he went braindead! He showed absolutely no faith in his defense. Do you want Manning to go 70 yards or 30? Not a tough decision. He screwed up but of course the "genious" will never admit it...

You.. Are.. A.. Retard..

[Sekrah]

Trying to explain math to retard degenerate loser gamblers is like trying to pull teeth out of an alligator's mouth.

These people are lousy, loser handicappers and therefore mathematically illiterate to begin with. You'd have a better chance trying to explain it to a monkey.

Going for the 4th down was absolutely the correct decision to make. Unfortunantly, like the topic says, most of America attended Government-run Schools and couldn't solve a math problem to save their lives.

[Sam Odom]

Trying to explain math to retard degenerate loser gamblers is like trying to pull teeth out of an alligator's mouth. These people are lousy, loser handicappers and therefore mathematically illiterate to begin with. You'd have a better chance trying to explain it to a monkey. Going for the 4th down was absolutely the correct decision to make. Unfortunantly, like the topic says, most of America attended Government-run Schools and couldn't solve a math problem to save their lives.

OK

Show me the stats for going for it (4th & 2) inside your OWN 30

[jellobiafra]

LOL at all the science fair guys looking down their noses at us .... again.

I still don't see how you quantify all these probabilities to get an accurate mathematical equation, but I'm a retard so who cares what I think.

[pavyracer]

OK

Show me the stats for going for it (4th & 2) inside your OWN 30

I completely agree. There is not a stat comparing 4th & 2 on own 28 yard line. If they did this before 10 times succesfully from opponents 35 yard line it has no statistical value to this particular situation.

[Sekrah]

Approximately 60% of converting here. While both DonJuan and Justin say it was an easy math decision, my math shows it was the right decision but not by the country mile. It could be that I was out all day and had driven 400 miles and missed something. I'm still recovering from today..... Had it been 4th and 3, the correct play would have been to punt.

Disagree.. I have it being a good decision all the way up to 4th & 5.

[poker_dummy101]

LOL at all the science fair guys looking down their noses at us .... again.

I still don't see how you quantify all these probabilities to get an accurate mathematical equation, but I'm a retard so who cares what I think.

I'm starting to agree with this. They just say you're wrong with no explanation at all.

[FishFace5]

"how fat is the envelope you are handing over this week?"
I had pats with the points if that matters at all to this discussion. I think the math equation used to support this decision is not at all what belichick based his decision on so it is basically irrelevant. I'm not gonna sit here and suggest how this particular variable would change everything or how that stat is incorrect (but I could). Belichick made a huge gamble, it was a bad football decision imo. Maybe you disagree but don't fool yourself into thinking anybody was crunching any of these #'s on the sideline prior to making the decision. Cute equation though fellas.

[ClydeFontaine]

Good post, I came up with basically the same thing here:

Let's look at it a different way.

Figure out the percentage the Colts score a touchdown if the Pats punt. Since they had scored on 4 of 13 drives, we can use 31%. Some may put it higher since the defense was probably tired and Peyton Manning is the QB so we can estimate 40%. Given that if the Colts score a TD after a punt there will be little or no time for the Pats to score, we won't adjust that downward for the Pats scoring after the Colts score.

So if the Pats punt they lose the game 40% of the time and win 60%.

Now if they go for it and make it, they win it 100% of the time. Not exactly, 100% but for math purposes we will say that.

If they go for it and don't make it, what percentage of the time do the Colts score a TD (remember they needed a TD not a FG). Given the tired defense and short field we will use 75%.

Now figure out what percentage of the time they go for it, don't make it, the Colts score, and the Pats have time and score a field goal (a situation that could have occurred has Addai scored). We can say 10%, maybe a little high but they would have had a kickoff return and needed to get into FG range (in a dome, good kicking conditions).

Now we would need stats to figure out what percent of the time they go for it on 4th and 2 in that situation and make it. Hard to say without looking at lots of data but I'd guess based on average yards and 4th down conversion success rates we are looking at over 60% of the time.

Crunch all these numbers and it boils down to if their chances of going for it and making it and/or still stopping them if they don't or scoring after Colts gets a TD > than their chances of punting away and losing, then the correct call is to go for it.

If it is less, then they should punt.

Now someone with a math degree figure it out for us.

[Sam Odom]

pavy , correct

Going for 4th and short in the red-zone or mid-field or inside ones OWN 30 are different (statistical subsets) and must be weighed independently

[Sekrah]

You math guys are so goofy. Solved?? 4th and 2 from your own 28 with 2 minutes remaining and a lead is a punting situation. PERIOD. Plain and simple. End of story.

YOU..
ARE..
A..
RETARD

[yisman]

Years past do no matter as much as their stats this year.

That play made them 5-11 on the season on 4th downs. I did not look up the stats on how many yards they needed on each and what team they played however. But, if they are 50% on the season and they are playing a better defensive team than average, that accounts for something as well.

To come up with some random number to plug in there or any other place seems way off to me and have to go with logical thinking not statistical. Not enough data points to come to a right or wrong answer statistically.

The Colts have never been good at stopping short yardage plays, especially against the Patriots.

You can argue about the play call, but I had no problem with the decision.

The fact that the Colts have never been able to stop them consistently in those situations makes all the difference.

Against another team, he'd probably punt.

[Sekrah]

I completely agree. There is not a stat comparing 4th & 2 on own 28 yard line. If they did this before 10 times succesfully from opponents 35 yard line it has no statistical value to this particular situation.

LOL!!!

And it's a wonder why most gamblers are complete losers.

[yisman]

I agree

Show me the stats for going for it (4th & 2) inside your OWN 30 then I may give it credibility however the sampling is so small it has no weight

irrelevant. Outside of goal line plays, you can look at the success rate of going for it on 4th and 2 from a variety of different places on the field, when it's the Patriots offense against the Colts defense.

The Patriots have had a very high success rate in those situations, and that's probably what Belichick was thinking about when he made the decision to go for it.

[jellobiafra]

And what is the true probability that the Colts drive ~70 yards in under 2 minutes to score a TD with 1 TO and the game on the line vs NE's defense. If you can't give me an accurate number for that then this is all moot, imo.

[Sam Odom]

irrelevant. Outside of goal line plays, you can look at the success rate of going for it on 4th and 2 from a variety of different places on the field, when it's the Patriots offense against the Colts defense.

irrelevant Why , because you say so ?

Where on the field determines the type of defense used. Not even figuring-in time left & score

[Sekrah]

And what is the true probability that the Colts drive ~70 yards in under 2 minutes to score a TD with 1 TO and the game on the line vs NE's defense. If you can't give me an accurate number for that then this is all moot, imo.

Against that winded Pats D that got sliced all 4th quarter, 50%, possibly as high as 60-65%.

The more important question is, how often/long does it take for Manning to get the Colts to the New England 29 yard line? I am very confident he gets there in under 1 minute 90-95% of the time, with a timeout still in his pocket.

The odds of Pats converting the 4th and 2 were greater than 50%. Simple as that.

The only mistake Belichick made was not instructing his team to let the Colts score on that first play.

[yisman]

irrelevant Why , because you say so ?

because those situations have similar probabilities, whether you're on your own 28 or at midfield.

If it was 4th and goal from the 2, that would change things, of course.

If you're going to say only plays from the 28 can be considered, then you can throw out all data about everything. You can throw out how much the average punt in your own territory goes for, because none of the Patriots punts were from the 28.

[Sekrah]

irrelevant Why , because you say so ?

Where on the field determines the type of defense used. Not even figuring-in time left & score

Are you serious?! Is this a serious question?! Do you seriously think the defenses change on 4th and 2 anywhere between the redzones?



Stunned at the stupidity.