Sucks for Belichick that the vast majority of America sucks at 4th grade level math

[RJ89]

Advanced NFL Stats doesn't get it 100% right, but this is worth a read:

Quote:
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.

Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.

Uhh, this guy's probability equation is right, but the probabilities he uses in it are ridiculous. Does he keep a database of every 2-minute drill situation accounting for field position or amount of timeouts? Even if he does, the sample size of teams getting the ball at their own 30-35 with one timeout left is probably way too small to produce a meaningful probability. So even if that 53% is accurate, he might as well of pulled it out of his a**.

And second of all, there is no way the real probability of the Colts scoring from the 28 was anywhere close to 53%. Personally, I think that their chances at that point were much closer to 80% and plugging that number into the equation it gives the Pats a better chance to win if they punt. I also think that the 60% conversion rate for the 4th down in that situation is also debatable.

So the bottomline is that if you plug more reasonable numbers into the equation, the Pats probably would have had a slightly better chance to win if they had punted. However, Belicheck isn't the moron of the year for going for it, since the probabilities are debatable. If they got the first down no one would be criticizing him right now, and I think everone agrees that the Pats had a decent chance of converting.

[PRC]

He made a terrible decision. bottom line.

[20Four7]

that's my impression too. I'm wondering if it's fair to apply generic statistics to particular scenarios disregarding it's unique qualities.

If the "Average" NFL team makes it 60% and you believe NE is above average they make it more. If the Average NFL team scores from the 30 50% of the time and Indi is above average they score more often...... the only scenario where it makes sense to punt is if NE will make it much less than average.... that's ignoring INdi scoring and NE getting the ball back.

[BobbyBaseballs]

Bellidick's the best.......Hope he gets fired for that....I was trying to figure out what kind of bet he may have had on the game for him to do it but nothing would make sense

[4TH AND STUPID]

MAJOR FLAW IN YOUR CALCULATION = PROBABILITY OF UNFORSEEABLE TURNOVER (EX FUMBLE, ETC)


now you will claim that you have included that probability in the calculation for probability of colts scoring on a 70 yd drive, but you cannot claim that you you know that probability is, unless you base it on a track back through history of teams scoring a touchdown on a two minute drill in the 4th quarter.

many other teams tried to do the same today and couldnt [ ex . oakland - kansas city].

you cannot go for it on 4th and 2 on the road and expect to convert. momentum plays a huge factor as well and you are giving that, along with (for all intents and purposes) the game away to indy.




classic example of 4TH AND STUPID

[smitch124]

If he was so smart to make the unconventional play on 4th down, he should of been smart enough to let the Colts score with more time remaining.

Agree, its the exact same line of thinking in the opposite direction. 1 down with 1:20 to go much better chance of winning than trying to stop the Colts from getting a TD from inside the 10 at that point.

[smitch124]

Another factor in Bellicheck's decision was that his defensive line was very thin last night and completely gassed. Its not a matter of not having "confidence" in his defense, its a matter of realistically evaluating his chances of stopping the Colts in that last drive.

[Fishhead]

it's a really simple math problem on whether or not to go for it in that situation. All you need is to assign probabilities to the following:

Chance of getting a first down on 4th and 2
chance of colts scoring a td from 30 yards out with 1 to left.
Chance of colts scoring a td from ~70 yards out with 1 to left.
Chance of pats coming back and scoring when the colts score (should be slightly higher when not punting because the colts will tend to score faster)

hint: Even with estimates ridiculously biased towards punting, going for it is still the correct answer by a country mile.

This also ignores blocked punts and long punt returns.

exactly!!!!!

[jellobiafra]

It's a really simple math problem on whether or not to go for it in that situation. All you need is to assign probabilities to the following:

Chance of getting a first down on 4th and 2
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from 30 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from ~70 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Pats coming back and scoring when the Colts score (should be slightly higher when not punting because the Colts will tend to score faster)

Hint: even with estimates ridiculously biased towards punting, going for it is still the correct answer by a country mile.

This also ignores blocked punts and long punt returns.

Can you assign accurate probabilities to these scenarios, or is everybody just guessing here? Can you tell me the actual probability of IND scoring a TD from their own 30 (assuming 40 yard net punt) with 1:50 remaining and 1 timeout against the NE defense?

Can you assign real percentages to any of these variables? You alluded to this being a very simple equation, but as of yet this doesn't appear to be very scientific. I see a lot of people pulling numbers out of their asses, but nothing concrete on this figures.

[slacker00]

It's a close call either way. I hate the Pats, but I respect them and give credit when it's due. Can't hang Belichick for this choice.

Think about it, it's about 50/50 if they go for it, if they make it they win. Even if they don't, it's still possible to stop the Colts from getting a TD. Punting is ok, but I'd like my chances with Peyton in that spot, especially how he'd been doing in previous drives to that point in the game. It's a close call either way, but going for the win in that spot is the ballsy play.

It's fine to be a fan and bitch either way, but don't disrespect the HOF coach for having the balls to make a tough call.

[jellobiafra]

Think about it, it's about 50/50 if they go for it, if they make it they win.

This could be considered the crux of the argument. If they punt there instead, is it still 50/50 that they win?

[TheAccountant]

Does anyone really believe that the decision to go for it on fourth and 2 is equivalent to a 4th grade math problem?? This comes down to a lot more than arbitrary statistics and probabilities.

[Shahbucks]

That call was 99.9% stupid as far as math go. Every so often Bill leave everyones head scratching. A punt would knock ten seconds off the clock and give the Colts worse field position. I don't think he was trying to win as some of you think, it was more like trying not to loose, since he knew his D couldn't stop Manning who was locked in. He had no timeouts to challenge. Called a play short of the first. And they should have let Addai score with around a min left if you was going for it! Football is a game of giving and taking real estate, and I don't think he put his boys in good position.

[jellobiafra]

Does anyone really believe that the decision to go for it on fourth and 2 is equivalent to a 4th grade math problem?? This comes down to a lot more than arbitrary statistics and probabilities.

No, I don't. Some people here only see things in terms of math though.

There are so many intangibles and unknowns, I don't see how you can construct a conventional mathematical equation out of it. The nuances make this situation unique. I haven't seen anybody using any real stats/probabilities to support their conclusions anyway.

Justin, make a video.

[poker_dummy101]

This could be considered the crux of the argument. If they punt there instead, is it still 50/50 that they win?

Its not that simple

[jellobiafra]

Its not that simple

Of course it's not. But the way the game was going, I feel like giving the ball to IND on the NE 28 was almost the equivalent of giving them a TD less than 2 minutes later.

[Shahbucks]

This problem will never be in a Math textbook by the way.

[ASH0479]

....

I think it went a little more like this~

Bellicheck is getting ready to punt the ball, when all of a sudden, in his headset Vegas chimes in~

Bill, you had several chances to screw us over as 80% of the public was on the Pats moneyline, lucky for us you turned it over in the endzone twice...so here we are with 4th down inside your own 30....

Lets go for it, but instead of letting Brady sneak, which worked for 5 yards earlier, or smash the ball with Maroney, which also worked earlier, lets throw the ball and play into the hands of Indy speed on defense...

Hey Bill, we will give you a 20% of our winnings...

Bellicheck after pondering for a minute, calls Brady over, Tom lets run this play...

[blackbart]

this is precisely why more coaches dont go for it on 4th down even when they know its the correct decision, they are afraid of being fired. outcry like this would cost many coaches their job.

[spongerat]

would we still be having the same discussion about how "dumb" this was if the pats hadn't bobbled the ball and gotten the first down? They HAD it if not for a split second bobble. It was effectively the same as being at 4th and 2 to goal

[Sam Odom]

"It was the kind of call that's so bad that if it was made by your friend during a game of Madden, you'd say, 'come on, play for real.'"


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[thebertshow]

Stupid call by Belichek and it was entertaining to see it unfold.

[FishFace5]

+1 Sam. Punt the ball.

[Scorpion]

his press conf is coming up on NFL network soon

[poker_dummy101]

It was effectively the same as being at 4th and 2 to goal

No it wasn't. Not at all

[Mr Handicapable]

If Belechik would've told the D to let the Colts score...if they got inside the 10 anyway....then they have time for a FG to win it! Addai burst to the goal and I thought that was the Pats plan until they gang tackled him at the 1! Holmgren let Denver score like that in the SB so Favre would have time to come back down rather than let Denver eat all the time and break the tie anyway! I'm a Colts fan but I can still see Belechik's logic....we did little to stop Brady & Co. all night! I don't think that call cost the Pats the game anymore than anything else in the 4th quarter!

[lakerboy]

I had the colts -1 and i told my buddy who had the pats +1 the whole game that the colts were going to win by 1 point. He never believed me and when it was all said and done we both sat there and laughed cause neither of us won or lost. Belichick made the correct call bottom line. There was no way he could give the ball back to manning with 2 minutes left anywhere on the field. They should have gotten the first down.

[TGoat]

I would give the Colts a 80-90% chance at scoring if the Pats punt. Maybe higher because manning has a distinct nose for the endzone.

Nonsense.

[FishFace5]

Total nonsense. They had 28 points guys, not 49. Everybody is acting like Colts scoring was a formality. Quick question, same exact situation occurs in the playoffs or next year, you think pats go for it????? Punt the ball. Every time. No brainer.

[infamousbacardi]

I don't think you can crucify Bill either way...in actuality...they likely DID get the 1st down. I think if NE had a TO left, that gets reviewed and overturned. I think he had the 2 yards...IF that happens...and they get it (which, I think they did)...how is BB treated today!? If they would have gotten it, how is BB thought of for his decision!?
I'm a Packer fan and don't care one bit about this game, no cash on it either way...the drive before, Peyton and Co. went 79 yards in 1:49 just 5 minutes before his decision to go on 4th and 2. His defense was absolutely gassed, and hurting. It wasn't a formality that Peyton and Co. do score if they have to go 80 yards again with 2 minutes and 1 TO...but I know he didn't like what he saw 5 minutes before his decision. Besides...they probably did get it on 4th & 2.
Lest we also consider, Peyton had 31 (now 32) 4th quarter comebacks in his career...this wasn't Brady Quinn or Tarvaris Jackson opposing him...Peyton, he's the best QB in the world.
Could he have punted!? Of course...would he have won if he had a TO left, probably...
I'm not saying, I'm just saying.

[reno cool]

If the "Average" NFL team makes it 60% and you believe NE is above average they make it more. If the Average NFL team scores from the 30 50% of the time and Indi is above average they score more often...... the only scenario where it makes sense to punt is if NE will make it much less than average.... that's ignoring INdi scoring and NE getting the ball back.

I'm more referring to the unique aspect of the particular situation. Your team had the game in the bag. You feel the pressure of the oncoming collapse. Your coach attempts what appears to be a desperation play. You go out there to stop Ind from the 30 yard line. You're tired and rattled.
Does all this lower your chance of making the stop?

[yisman]

I agree with donjuan.

Coaches are far too conservative on fourth down. On most fourth and shorts, going for it is the right call. However, coaches rarely do it.

Here's what I wrote last night:

While the talking heads on NBC made it about him not trusting his defense, I think it was him simply relying on their historical success against Indianapolis when they have 3rd or 4th and short. If you go back and look at all the 3rd and 4th and shorts (2 or less) by New England against Indy during the Belichick era, I bet their conversion rate is over 75%.

I was sure they'd convert it and end the game right there. They would have, too, had Faulk caught it cleanly.

So while normally the right call there is to punt, I didn't have a huge problem with it. Manning and co. had just marched right down the field on them in under two minutes and scored. If you punt to them, there's a pretty good chance (over 40%, maybe higher) that they do it again. If you convert the 4th and 2, which the Colts have almost never been able to stop against NE, the game is over. It boils down to what you think the likelihood of converting the 4th down is, vs. how much Indianapolis's chances of scoring a TD increase by giving them a shorter field.

When it went to fourth down, I figured he'd be conservative and punt, but I was seriously considering the possibility that going for it on 4th down was the right call. Coaches in general take the "safe" play by simply punting on most fourth and shorts, but studies have shown that those decisions hurt their teams. Of course, if they punt, they won't get slammed by the media and fans for it, while if they go for it and fail, they will.

The real head scratchers were, again, the needless timeouts. The last two timeouts they took made no sense. Besides, whoever was calling the timeouts had to be aware that the timeouts might be necessary at the end, especially when you're leaving yourself without the ability to challenge.

[Rio DiNero]

Another factor in Bellicheck's decision was that his defensive line was very thin last night and completely gassed. Its not a matter of not having "confidence" in his defense, its a matter of realistically evaluating his chances of stopping the Colts in that last drive.

I think this was a major part of why BB went for it, and IMO he called a fabulous play to pick up the yard they needed and if the receiver makes that catch clean, game over.

[pavyracer]

I think he didn't have his calculator handy otherwise he wouldn't have gone for it knowing the probabilities.

[tullamore]

Good article talking about the math probabilities of each decision.

http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/11/16/defending-belichicks-fourth-down-decision/?emc=eta1

Also Ernie Adams most likely is the one who told Belichick that the odds were in the Pats favor if they went for it.