Sucks for Belichick that the vast majority of America sucks at 4th grade level math

[Indecent]

I think the stats you need to compare to is 4th and 2 from own 28 yard line with 1:57 left and being up by 6 points. Any other stat involving a 4th and 2 which happened in the past without the exact parameters is irrelevant.

I hope you aren't being serious...

[donjuan]

I hope you aren't being serious...

Pavy realized long ago he didn't really have a clue so he resorts to trolling as a defense mechanism.

[Nicky Santoro]

I think the stats you need to compare to is 4th and 2 from own 28 yard line with 1:57 left and being up by 6 points. Any other stat involving a 4th and 2 which happened in the past without the exact parameters is irrelevant.

paver, don't listen to these fools, you are not way off.. IF it wasn't brady and N.E and instead it was a team like CLE who can't score and if a team had a great D and not good offence, they punt it. and many many many other factors would make them not go for it..

[pavyracer]

I deal with numbers at my job all the time. When numbers don't make sense we use common sense otherwise we put people's lives at risk. Vince Lombardi will roll in his grave if he read this thread. Can you imagine a college math kid whispering in his ear before this play that he calculated the probability of converting the 4th down instead of punting in this situation? He would have smacked him in the head and told him football is played by men not numbers.

[Indecent]

Can you imagine a college math kid whispering in his ear before this play that he calculated the probability of converting the 4th down instead of punting in this situation? He would have smacked him in the head and told him football is played by men not numbers.

How does that make him right?

Games change, if he's as smart as you think he is he would know that you don't do something because that's the way you've done it. You constantly reassess everything and look for things everyone else doesn't think of. You use all the tools you can (and that includes math geeks who run these numbers for you) and do everything you can to maximize your chances of winning. If you stand still, you lose.

[FishFace5]

WOW. What a pompous asshole you are!!! I'll keep my post short and to the point ok big mouth.

This is not math class, please put down your calculator. This is in no way a poker game, do not compare it to 1 again. This is a football discussion, please learn to argue\debate like an adult.

This is a discussion about punting from your own 28 yard line on 4th and 2 with just over 2 minutes remaining and your opponent has 1 timeout. (Pats vs Colts)................ We've had 8 pages of talk lets go back to this original point, I think it will help

[Sam Odom]

Risky call puts Belichick in bad company

[pavyracer]

Obviously the idea that a football game is a sport played by 300 lb men with the sole purpose of denying their opponents of scoring points to win the game has little importance when some geek upstairs has come up with a statistical model on how to win football games.

[Indecent]

This is not math class, please put down your calculator. This is in no way a poker game, do not compare it to 1 again.

Explain how my example doesn't work? I'm not saying how explain how football is different from poker, I'm asking why you think the example doesn't work. To do this, I'm actually asking you to read, comprehend, think, and then reply.

If you think results oriented analysis does not work in football that's fine, but if you're going to express that opinion you need to be able to explain it like an adult.

This is a football discussion, please learn to argue\debate like an adult.

Are you kidding me? Adults argue and debate by providing proof and counter arguments. I'm not talking about adults arguing with children where "because I said so" works. You don't get the benefit of the doubt, if you think I'm wrong prove it by going through anything you can refute point by point and refute it. If you are as right as you think you are, it should be easy.

[FishFace5]

Let me be clear for you. I have stated that IN MY OPINION this was a clear punting situation. If I was the coach I punt here every time. I have said this is not results based on my part. In no way what so ever would my opinion have changed if the pats had converted. I'd be screaming it was a bad call just like I am now.
I have no problem with the OP's original equation. It def supports the decision to go for it (after the fact). My major issue is with your stance that it is somehow factual. That this equation proves it was the right decision. Any numbers you use here are going to be highly subjective. I don't care how great you clowns are at math. You can't assign a number to human emotion.
I asked you to remember that this was a football discussion because I can assure you that nobody any where on the field who had anything to do with making the decision to go for it crunched any of these numbers before making the decision. To me your numbers are irrelevant for this reason alone.

[FishFace5]

Remember this is a football discussion. The pats last drive was in trouble before 1st down. Comin out of the TV timeout the pats didnt have the play right and needed to call a TO only to run the ball into a wall anyway. 3rd and 2 was an incomplete pass, the punt team started running onto the field and the pats needed another TO to agree about what they were doing, also giving the colts a chance to draw up a play. This only makes the decision to punt more clear. Your math cannot account for all the variables involved (especially because you never played).

[Indecent]

Let me be clear for you. I have stated that IN MY OPINION this was a clear punting situation. If I was the coach I punt here every time. I have said this is not results based on my part. In no way what so ever would my opinion have changed if the pats had converted. I'd be screaming it was a bad call just like I am now.

I understand your point, you already mentioned in this thread that you wouldn't change your opinion.... so why did you jump all over me when my original post was to say that people shouldn't change based on the results? Is it because my example was flawed? Or did you completely misinterpret what I was saying? It's fine if you did, I might not have been clear enough in my initial example to explain what I mean. But to say I'm wrong with no explanation is a no-go.

I have no problem with the OP's original equation. It def supports the decision to go for it (after the fact). My major issue is with your stance that it is somehow factual. That this equation proves it was the right decision. Any numbers you use here are going to be highly subjective. I don't care how great you clowns are at math. You can't assign a number to human emotion.

I never said you could... once again, you group me with everyone else in the thread without reading what I write. I never said the numbers are exact. Can you point to where I did? Can you point to where I said the numbers were factual? Can you point to where I said it was the right decision? The wrong one? Where it wasn't even close? Any of this?

Do you think I can point out countless examples where you still have no idea what you are talking about? If you are thinking out loud that I just did, you are right.

I asked you to remember that this was a football discussion because I can assure you that nobody any where on the field who had anything to do with making the decision to go for it crunched any of these numbers before making the decision. To me your numbers are irrelevant for this reason alone.

Do you honestly think that the teams haven't hired statisticians to do the very same real time analysis we are talking about? At the very least, do you know with 100% certainty that there wasn't someone upstairs running the very same calculations?

How do you think sportsbooks generate play-by-play lines for live betting? Computer modeling. Sure they aren't perfect, but they must be good enough to keep making money.

Real time analysis for teams is not only possible, it's probable. If not now, soon. (Edit: It is now... http://fifthdown.blogs.nytimes.com/2...urth-down-bid/) Although not perfect, every team in the league could use software like this to make the kind of calculations we are talking about trivial. I can't make the claim that they were using this system, but it certainly isn't out of the realm of possibilities.

[pavyracer]

Belichek was so confused on what to do he actually burned two timeouts. If you really think a statistician had any say in Belichek's decision to go for it and not his blind arrogance then you obviously don't know the guy.

[Indecent]

I'd venture a guess and say none of us know the guy personally. I just don't think you can criticize math people for not being able to exactly calculate the numbers but assume with 100% certainty that none of this came into their decision process. If we aren't allowed to grasp at nothing, neither are you.

[FishFace5]

Indecent I never meant you to feel I was personally attacking you. In fact the only one in the whole thread who was making things personal was sekrah. You just happened to join the discussion immediately after he had added more ignorance to the board. I'm not sensitive, I know arguments get heated, class is important though, You have shown some and I will reciprocate. Thanks for sharing your opinions with some class, I hope you fell the same.

[Indecent]

Indecent I never meant you to feel I was personally attacking you. In fact the only one in the whole thread who was making things personal was sekrah. You just happened to join the discussion immediately after he had added more ignorance to the board. I'm not sensitive, I know arguments get heated, class is important though, You have shown some and I will reciprocate. Thanks for sharing your opinions with some class, I hope you fell the same.

No worries. I love arguing, but never have hard feelings. Take care.

[lakerboy]

Good call here Belichick you math genius. You also destroyed the confidence of your team who wont recover from your mathematical expertise.

[rm18]

Pats still the favorite to win it all, of course it was the right call

[20Four7]

Obviously the idea that a football game is a sport played by 300 lb men with the sole purpose of denying their opponents of scoring points to win the game has little importance when some geek upstairs has come up with a statistical model on how to win football games.

If models didn't work we'd all be losing on football.

[FishFace5]

Modeling is great for deciding who to place a wager on in a particular game. Horrible for specific fourth down situations.

[yisman]

Now that I'm thinking about it again that move was 3X more dumb than I thought originally. Even if he converted the 4th and 2 from 28 yard line he still couldn't run out the clock because the Colts had their time outs.

I guess I'll have to tell you again that Indy had one timeout left.

[rm18]

they could of took a safety with under 10 seconds left if they picked up the first down.

[slacker00]

He did it again against the Chargers yesterday and missed again. Luckily the Chargers gave the game to the Pats anyway.

[rm18]

this time the percentages were closer not sure if the right call or not, but against the Colts no doubt they should of gone

[OmgUrMom]

he made the right call. like title of thread says its very clear unless you dont understand math