Sucks for Belichick that the vast majority of America sucks at 4th grade level math

cobra_king · 11-16-09, 12:43 AM

I remember reading an article last season about either a high school or low level college coach who didn't even have a punter on his team because in his eyes the math didn't make sense. I think having no punter is a bit of a stretch, but i always like seeing coaches try to win games rather than not lose them. Whether this was the right decision or not will be debated for a long time, however you can never accuse Belichick of not trying to win a game and that is always something you love to see in a coach.

MJFtheGenius · 11-16-09, 12:58 AM

yea ok

moron

pico · 11-16-09, 01:30 AM

going on 4th would make the game more interesting. belicheck didn';t want to make it too easy. good game

roasthawg · 11-16-09, 01:34 AM

Chances of converting... 50%
Chances of stopping Indy from 30... 20%
Chances of stopping Indy from 70... 65%

These are the three significant factors... punting gives the Patriots a 65% chance at winning, going for it gives them a 70% shot. Just throwing numbers in there but really it wasn't a terrible call... not unless you change the numbers around a lot.

Art Vandelay · 11-16-09, 01:35 AM

Bottom line - he went braindead! He showed absolutely no faith in his defense. Do you want Manning to go 70 yards or 30? Not a tough decision. He screwed up but of course the "genious" will never admit it...

donjuan · 11-16-09, 01:36 AM

Originally posted by Art Vandelay

Bottom line - he went braindead! He showed absolutely no faith in his defense. Do you want Manning to go 70 yards or 30? Not a tough decision. He screwed up but of course the "genious" will never admit it...

Bottom line you are a moron.

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 01:46 AM

How can you have enough statistical evidence to come up with meaningful numbers?

rm18 · 11-16-09, 01:46 AM

colts do not have anywhere near 80% chance to score from the 30, i put the percentages around 66% if they punt and 75% if they go

Scorpion · 11-16-09, 01:47 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

It's a really simple math problem on whether or not to go for it in that situation. All you need is to assign probabilities to the following:

Chance of getting a first down on 4th and 2
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from 30 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from ~70 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Pats coming back and scoring when the Colts score (should be slightly higher when not punting because the Colts will tend to score faster)

Hint: even with estimates ridiculously biased towards punting, going for it is still the correct answer by a country mile.

This also ignores blocked punts and long punt returns.

Very stupid to think like that. Did he think the Colts are as dumb as he is??
Going for it is really dumb because if you dont get it the best QB in the league will get the ball on the 30 and when they score they will not leave any time for you on the clock, did the dumbass ever think of that?

Oh, and by the way he is really stupid to use all his timeouts like its nothing

Any dumbass knows the chances of going 70 yards with 1 timeout left is much less than scoring a TD from 30 yards

Belichick is a clown, the only reason he won 3 Sbs is because he cheated, do you think if he was a genius the Browns would have fired him??????????????????????

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 01:48 AM

Originally posted by Scorpion

do you think if he was a genius the Browns would have fired him??????????????????????

Noone can save the Browns

Edit: Shit I put some on the ML with them tomorrow

1st and Ten · 11-16-09, 01:52 AM

Good Thread

Justin7 · 11-16-09, 01:53 AM

Going for it was clearly the best choice. I may have to do a vid on it.

Rio DiNero · 11-16-09, 01:54 AM

It was the right call, he ran the perfect play to get 1 yard and win the game, after the world's greatest QB just drove the field on the last two drives. If the receiver makes a clean catch and doesn't bobble the ball they kneel it out and BB is a genius for not letting superman on the field.

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 01:54 AM

I agree with the vid

UntilTheNDofTimE · 11-16-09, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by Justin7

Going for it was clearly the best choice. I may have to do a vid on it.

Please do justin......im begging you

donjuan · 11-16-09, 01:55 AM

Any dumbass knows the chances of going 70 yards with 1 timeout left is much less than scoring a TD from 30 yards

And a dumbass ignores that the Colts effectively win when they get a first down, which happens a majority of the time. Again, this isn't about players' feelings or putting trust in anyone. It's a simple math problem that the vast majority of you fail at.

1st and Ten · 11-16-09, 01:57 AM

Thanks for the perspective donjuan....that was a great game.Both teams played well

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 02:01 AM

I just want to know how to come up with the answer with certainty, I don't doubt thats the correct answer now

Wheell · 11-16-09, 02:04 AM

The call to go for it was brilliant. I don't know if it is worth a video, but the move was correct.

eidolon · 11-16-09, 02:04 AM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Chances of converting... 50%
Chances of stopping Indy from 30... 20%
Chances of stopping Indy from 70... 65%

These are the three significant factors... punting gives the Patriots a 65% chance at winning, going for it gives them a 70% shot. Just throwing numbers in there but really it wasn't a terrible call... not unless you change the numbers around a lot.

I think your math is wrong. With those numbers, the true chances of winning is 60% when going for it on 4th.

rm18 · 11-16-09, 02:06 AM

you just give percentages to each thing based on the teams.

Like maybe 49% to pick up 4th down
Maybe 66% for Colts to get TD after stop
99.2% to make extra point
21% for Pats to follow Colts TD with score

35% to score TD after punt
6% to follow TD after punt with score

roasthawg · 11-16-09, 02:09 AM

Originally posted by eidolon

I think your math is wrong. With those numbers, the true chances of winning is 60% when going for it on 4th.

Yeah, it was wrong... nice catch. Like I said I was just throwing numbers in though... I think when it's all said and done the call was alright. Unusual for sure but not unfounded.

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 02:20 AM

Originally posted by rm18

you just give percentages to each thing based on the teams.

Like maybe 49% to pick up 4th down
Maybe 66% for Colts to get TD after stop
99.2% to make extra point
21% for Pats to follow Colts TD with score

35% to score TD after punt
6% to follow TD after punt with score

out of these numbers, what would you have to change this one---> "35% to score TD after punt" to.. to make it better to punt?

reno cool · 11-16-09, 02:23 AM

If he was so smart to make the unconventional play on 4th down, he should of been smart enough to let the Colts score with more time remaining.

Brakon00 · 11-16-09, 02:24 AM

Justin 7 for the video on the belicheck brain fart!! Hip hip hoooray!

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by Brakon00

Justin 7 for the video on the belicheck brain fart!! Hip hip hoooray!

Justin 7 agreed with DonJuan.. 1st I wouldn't disagree with DonJuan and I definitely wouldnt disagree with both.. so I doubt you can call it a brain fart

20Four7 · 11-16-09, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by donjuan

It's a really simple math problem on whether or not to go for it in that situation. All you need is to assign probabilities to the following:

Chance of getting a first down on 4th and 2
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from 30 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Colts scoring a TD from ~70 yards out with 1 TO left.
Chance of Pats coming back and scoring when the Colts score (should be slightly higher when not punting because the Colts will tend to score faster)

Hint: even with estimates ridiculously biased towards punting, going for it is still the correct answer by a country mile.

This also ignores blocked punts and long punt returns.

And remember most of American ISN"T smarter than a 5th grader....... It boils down to he gets the first down game over..... end of story.

reno cool · 11-16-09, 02:26 AM

The loss is inexcusable. How do you not even run any time off the clock on that drive?

rm18 · 11-16-09, 02:27 AM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

out of these numbers, what would you have to change this one---> "35% to score TD after punt" to.. to make it better to punt?

under 25%

tltaylor89 · 11-16-09, 02:30 AM

lol best win of the year

poker_dummy101 · 11-16-09, 02:33 AM

Originally posted by rm18

under 25%

Thanks

I don't think 25% is THAT unreasonable though, is it?

rm18 · 11-16-09, 02:36 AM

The average NFL team would be under 25% in that situation but I would bput the Colts at about 35%.

Probably in 90% of NFL games the right decision would be to punt, because of the personnel and coaching of the teams, but Pats vs. Colts the right decision is to go.

reno cool · 11-16-09, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by roasthawg

Chances of converting... 50%
Chances of stopping Indy from 30... 20%
Chances of stopping Indy from 70... 65%

These are the three significant factors... punting gives the Patriots a 65% chance at winning, going for it gives them a 70% shot. Just throwing numbers in there but really it wasn't a terrible call... not unless you change the numbers around a lot.

wait a minute
nevermind
oh yeah, according to this 40% lose if go for it

Brakon00 · 11-16-09, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by tltaylor89

lol best win of the year

it wasnt a win for the colts...this was more of a loss for the patriots than a win for the colts....patriots played 100% amazing football for 58 minutes of the game and their fukin horrible coach mr."brain fart i am the only and best coach" belicheck decided to take the game on the line and have a 2 yard pass instead of a 5-10 yard pass for a gauranteed 1st down if the pass is made....instead brady gets up there and throws a 3 yard pass and makes the referees decide the game on whether its a first down.......game decision on 4th and 2 for belichek was inexcusable and should be reprimanded!

CAN ANYONE THINK OF ANY COACH OR ANY PERSON WHO WOULD HAVE GONE FOR IT ON 4TH & 2 AT YOUR OWN 28 YARD LINE WITH 2 MIN. LEFT IN GAME UP 6 POINTS????
(except for usc coach and gerogia tech..they don't count since they go on 4th down no matter where they r on the field)...

belicheck is an arrogant son of a btch.....he decided to be a btch and it turned back on him an the way he excuses himself is by telling the media and his team that if the guy had caught the "1 yard pass" they woulda won.....WELL

ME A RIVER BELICHECK YOU FUKIN MORON......BELICHECK HAD A BRAIN FART AND HE WILL END UP BEING REPREMANDED BY HIS TEAM, HIS BOSS, HIS CITY, AND THE MEDIA FOR WEEKS AND MAYBE YEARS FOR HIS 4TH DOWN CALL ON 4TH AND 2 UP 6 INSTEAD OF PUNTING...