For example if it was the Ravens going against the Browns tomorrow night I would say going gives them a 75% chance to win and punting gives them an 84% chance.
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Everyone is talking about math here (which can be applied to anything really). But the main point is that Bellichek felt uncomfortable leaving the game up to Peyton Manning. Simple as that. I think the math can skew reality a little bit. For instance, I would give the Colts a 80-90% chance at scoring if the Pats punt. Maybe higher because manning has a distinct nose for the endzone. He does not want to lose.Comment -
that would imply they come back 25% of the time. Not likely unless they allow Colts to score fast. If in fact the Colts have an 80% chance of scoring, they should have let them score uncontested with 1:30 left. that would probably give NE a 50% chance to get in field goal range.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
How many times do the Colts score a touchdown on a regular possession?
And then take into account:
The Patriots defense is giving up alot less points than the league average... Pats D > Avg D
Colts will be passing the whole time. Pats D will be more adjusted and effect the numbers even more.
Only 1 timeout, limited pass play calls (not likely short mid crossing routes etc)
Depending on the answer to the initial question, don't these get it down close to 25%?
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How many times do the Colts score a touchdown on a regular possession?
And then take into account:
The Patriots defense is giving up alot less points than the league average... Pats D > Avg D
Colts will be passing the whole time. Pats D will be more adjusted and effect the numbers even more.
Only 1 timeout, limited pass play calls (not likely short mid crossing routes etc)
Don't these get it down close to 25%?
4 downs against a tired defense that has been on the field skew the numbers the other way though, also home field advantage seems to have extra impact in late game situations to me.Comment -
I think the Pats defense is very strong in the redzone and not so much on the long field so the difference in % for 70 yards vs. 30 is less than most think.Comment -
Yeah, I don't particularly like the call. What are the chances of converting? It's not like this scenario has been tried often? Anyway they ****ed up somewhere. You don't blow a 13 point lead in 3 minutes and blame the public for not understanding probability.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Approximately 60% of converting here. While both DonJuan and Justin say it was an easy math decision, my math shows it was the right decision but not by the country mile. It could be that I was out all day and had driven 400 miles and missed something. I'm still recovering from today..... Had it been 4th and 3, the correct play would have been to punt.Comment -
We could find out the stats to that for sure but the patriots will be playing some type of prevent that will not allow for the big play.
Short middle passes, screens, slants or anything else might be possible starting at the 28yd line whereas with 70-80 yds to go and 1 timeout the play calling is alot more predictable and therefore helps the defense.
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Average team has 12 possesions per game.. Colts get an average of 24pts/game from touchdowns.
So they average a touchdown 28.57% of the time. Given the factors I mentioned above and earlier I think 25% is on the high end of them scoring.. maybe the 66% is too high from the 28yd line.. or possibly I don't know what im talking about
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60% is way to high with how aggressive the defense played it, they played it like a 2 point conversion, if the Pats wanted to throw a bomb it probably would of been wide open.Comment -
Advanced NFL Stats doesn't get it 100% right, but this is worth a read:
New England coach Bill Belichick is taking a lot of heat for his decision to attempt a 4th down conversion late in the game against the Colts. Indianapolis came back to win in dramatic fashion. Was the decision a good one?
With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:
(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP
A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP.
Statistically, the better decision would be to go for it, and by a good amount. However, these numbers are baselines for the league as a whole. You'd have to expect the Colts had a better than a 30% chance of scoring from their 34, and an accordingly higher chance to score from the Pats' 28. But any adjustment in their likelihood of scoring from either field position increases the advantage of going for it. You can play with the numbers any way you like, but it's pretty hard to come up with a realistic combination of numbers that make punting the better option. At best, you could make it a wash.Comment -
He did not mention anything about math or stats in his press conf so stop wasting your time telling us this idiot is a math wizComment -
We could find out the stats to that for sure but the patriots will be playing some type of prevent that will not allow for the big play.
Short middle passes, screens, slants or anything else might be possible starting at the 28yd line whereas with 70-80 yds to go and 1 timeout the play calling is alot more predictable and therefore helps the defense.
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Average team has 12 possesions per game.. Colts get an average of 24pts/game from touchdowns.
So they average a touchdown 28.57% of the time. Given the factors I mentioned above and earlier I think 25% is on the high end of them scoring.. maybe the 66% is too high from the 28yd line.. or possibly I don't know what im talking about
The Colts are not always trying to get a touchdown though it might be late in the half, or they are up double digits in the 2nd half and playing conservative. Also they are not trying to turn the ball and would take less risks on an average possession.
12 possessions per game seems like a lot for Colts games not for sure though.Comment -
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DonJuan,
You are ABSOLUTELY RIGHT that it was the correct decision to go on 4th and 2 and the vast majority of people (NOT only Americans) have little to no understanding of probabilities.
I remember watching a movie called "The Bucket List" and Morgan Freeman says to Jack Nicholson, "so you think 95% of those that believe are wrong" and Jack Nicholson replies "95% of the people are ALWAYS wrong".
The vast majority of those that gamble lose because they have no understanding of probabilities and I sure am glad they are around as their money is green just like mine is.
I made a healthy 5 figure profit on the game and I hope you did well too.
GREAT THREAD!!Comment -
I don't really agree with those numbers because they don't take into account the two teams that are playing or where the game is played
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I love people coming in saying Absolutely Right and all that bs when you are not adding anything to the discussion. I even know they are right because they're way smarter than me at this.. I just don't see how it can be mathematically correct if we don't have enough data and are going on the NFL as a wholeComment -
And the final tally was that at best punting was a wash..... I don't think it's a mistake to go for it..... I didn't come out with any combo that would make it a country mile either. The final tally was it was the BETTER decision.
I agree NFL stats doesn't get it right all the time, but don't forget no one here will really read through all 4 parts of the 4th down stuff and be able to understand it.Comment -
It certainly seems when the Colts got the ball they had a much higher than 53% chance to score.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
If tomorrow in his press conf Bellichick explains why it was mathematically the right decision then I would say he is a good coach, otherwise stop the bullshit, the guy fukked up, he knows it, and in his press conf after the game he blamed his players for not getting one yard, that is what he said, ONE YARD!
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Yes because they should get that one yard far more often that NOT getting that one yard. Ignoring all the other crap...... they should get that one yard 6 out of 10 times and the game is over.If tomorrow in his press conf Bellichick explains why it was mathematically the right decision then I would say he is a good coach, otherwise stop the bullshit, the guy fukked up, he knows it, and in his press conf after the game he blamed his players for not getting one yard, that is what he said, ONE YARD!Comment -
Many conventional calls are wrong math wise. One that I always say that nobody has picked up on is when you are down by 14 and get a TD to go for two. This will give you a 50% chance to take the lead, 25% to tie, and 25% to be behind roughly after you get the 2nd TD.Comment -
Also going for 4th and short extremely deep in your own territory during the middle of the game, like at the 11 yard line is a good play because the points the offense will score starting from around midfield can actually be pretty close to what they will score starting from the 11.Comment -
There are also so many times in college football where the coach goes for long field goals that hurts their teams chance to win it is unreal. Many times both punting or going is better and they kick the field goal.Comment -
Looking at the call from purely a neutral point of view (I didn't have any money on the game, nor support either team) -
If going for it on 4th and 2 is the correct call, then how often throughout the course of the season, throughout the all the games, all the teams, how often would a team faced with a 4th and 2 on their own 28 (or anywhere along the field) how often would they go for it? I'll admit, I don't have the figures, I would imagine most teams would punt (or take a field goal) on a 4th and 2.
I realise that this would have virtually iced the game, but is 2 yards any easier to get because there are 2 minutes left?
I argue that if this is the correct call at this point, then it is the correct call at ANY point of the game, at any place on the field. And if that is the case then why do teams punt the ball so often or 4th and 2 or less?
My other observation is, why didn't he make this call on 3rd down? At third down put out word to the team that you have 2 plays to get 2 yards. Does this series still play out the same way, do the same plays get called, if he makes this decision a down earlier?
Just my 2 cents.Comment -
We'll see if this starts a trend. I would like this play a lot more if NE intention was to let Colts score once they got inside the 10 or so.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Time and score is why it is a good call. The fact that the first ices the game has a lot to do with it. Belichick would not go for this if they were up 6 with 6 minutes left.Comment -
team A drives the ball and gets a 1st down at opponents 1
team B runs 3 plays from the opponent 1 and gets stopped every time ending up on the opponent 1
Would you say that both teams have the same probability of scoring on the next down?bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
1st quarter - 4th and 2 at NEP 39 PUNTS
2nd Quarter - 4th and 3 at NEP 43 PUNTS
If going for it was the right call, and he truly backed his offence, why did he punt in these situations an hour earlier?
4th and 2 at NE 39C.Hanson punts 51 yards to IND 10, Center-J.Ingram, fair catch by T.Rushing.Comment -
Reno - Personally I would say that they dont have the same chance of scoring. Reason - My logic for the team facing 4th down at the 1, vs the team facing 1st down at the 1. Aside from the pressure etc facing the teams. My reasoning is that if an offence was that good it wouldn't have got stopped on 1st, 2nd, or 3rd down and they wouldn't be facing 4th down. This is vs the other team that hasn't been stopped.
Interesting scenario thoughComment -
that's my impression too. I'm wondering if it's fair to apply generic statistics to particular scenarios disregarding it's unique qualities.bird bird da bird's da wordComment
