president futures are paying big

[TommieGunshot]

Can anyone find trump to win the election at +money odds. I see him at +100 but I need a little better than that to arb

+105 at betonline, $50k limits.

[Chiefs83]

I can’t play at Betonline anywhere else…not looking for an exchange unless it’s legal

Thanks tho

[JohnGalt2341]

I was looking over some Lines at BetOnline. I found one I like.



I definitely like the Dems chances here. I'll be fairly surprised if this Line hasn't moved by election time. But as always... I could be wrong.

This Line has moved... THE OTHER WAY!



This is absolutely baffling to me!! Am I missing something here? If so... somebody please tell me what it is that I am missing. I have this maxed out(to win $500) now... regardless of whether I win or lose... I will show you my tickets. I liked the Over 19.5, but Over 17.5 seems like a lock to me. As always... I could be wrong... but I feel VERY good about the Over 17.5. Get it while you can boys!!! I only hope BetOnline doesn't claim this was a Bad Line.

[Pareto]

Why do you feel so confident about O 17½?

In 2020 all the polls had Biden with 25%-33%. He ended up winning with 23%. Less than any polling result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/new-york/

This year all the polls have Harris between 11%-17%. There is not a single poll that has her over 17%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-york/

[JohnGalt2341]

Why do you feel so confident about O 17½?

In 2020 all the polls had Biden with 25%-33%. He ended up winning with 23%. Less than any polling result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/new-york/

This year all the polls have Harris between 11%-17%. There is not a single poll that has her over 17%.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2024/new-york/

Good points indeed!

I am basing it mostly on the fact that it's been a pretty long time since the Reps have cracked 19.5(not to mention 17.5), as you can see below.



I could most definitely be wrong. I feel pretty good about the 17.5, but the 19.5 I could definitely be wrong about.

[hank_kingsley]

Anyone know if Bet105 allows rebets on their +100 lines for each candidate? Max is $2000 and in other futures they do not allow rebets after you hit their max but just wondering if anyone's tried on President market.

[ByeShea]

Some brutal polling results last night for Harris:

NBC/Marist (reliably 5-8 pts off favoring the Democrats - in '20 their NC final was Biden +8 ... Trump won by +1.5 )

NC - tied
GA - Trump +1
AZ - Trump +1

--- maybe more remarkable is that Marist has Trump +1 w/ Hispanic voters ... Biden was +24 with Hispanics

Both campaigns know this - this is why she wants to debate and he's like "nah".

[JohnGalt2341]

Some brutal polling results last night for Harris:

NBC/Marist (reliably 5-8 pts off favoring the Democrats - in '20 their NC final was Biden +8 ... Trump won by +1.5 )

NC - tied
GA - Trump +1
AZ - Trump +1

--- maybe more remarkable is that Marist has Trump +1 w/ Hispanic voters ... Biden was +24 with Hispanics

Both campaigns know this - this is why she wants to debate and he's like "nah".

Impressive. In 2020, 5Dimes and BetOnline predicted 48 out of 50 States(including DC, and FL was a coin flip) correctly 4 months out from the election. I documented this here: https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...00-points.html The 2 they got wrong were NC 52% for Dems(Trump won), and 57% for Trump for GA(Dems won).

This time around, BetOnline currently has it as a coin flip. And Polymarket has Harris as a SLIGHT favorite(I agree with this). *******

[JohnGalt2341]

I like the value in this as well. Whenever there are 2 "wild cards" going at it(particularly political stuff), I usually think the smart money is on the dog. He may not win, but at +250 I think it's worth a shot. I'm going to keep an eye on this, and likely post updates.

Here you go boys... anyone tail me on this one?



I am most definitely rooting for the Rep here... can you believe that?

[DwightShrute]

WILL EITHER CANDIDATE SAY "CATS"?

Yes +287
No -392

WILL EITHER CANDIDATE SAY "GEESE" ?

Yes +874
No -2000


easy money


Bookmaker

[JohnGalt2341]

They wouldn't let me wager much on this, but I'll be pretty surprised if this doesn't hit.

[johnnyvegas13]

WILL EITHER CANDIDATE SAY "CATS"?

Yes +287
No -392

WILL EITHER CANDIDATE SAY "GEESE" ?

Yes +874
No -2000


easy money


Bookmaker

What about goose or gander will I get a push ???

these pros r fckknn retardant

[actiondan]

interesting debate. i learned tim walz is friends with school shooters

[trytrytry]

WILL EITHER CANDIDATE SAY "CATS"?

Yes +287
No -392

WILL EITHER CANDIDATE SAY "GEESE" ?

Yes +874
No -2000


easy money


Bookmaker

did hear it all but I believe cats was said no geese but I could be wrong

[JohnGalt2341]

I like the value in this as well. Whenever there are 2 "wild cards" going at it(particularly political stuff), I usually think the smart money is on the dog. He may not win, but at +250 I think it's worth a shot. I'm going to keep an eye on this, and likely post updates.

Easy money, boys. It pays(literally) to be objective.



The Over 7.5 false claims hit as well, but they only let me bet $25 on that.

Question, how many political wagers would I have to hit in a row before you would start to tail me on these? If these were regular Sports wagers would you feel differently? Why?

[actiondan]

vance cashes. i think he won the cbs poll by 1%. it was not that close smdh.

i for one do not have any school shooter friends

[diesteldorf]

Does anyone think a straight bet on the election winner would be paid immediately after the election is certified, and/or after any potential recounts have taken place, OR will they wait until January when the winner is actually sworn in as the 47 POTUS?

[JohnGalt2341]

Does anyone think a straight bet on the election winner would be paid immediately after the election is certified, and/or after any potential recounts have taken place, OR will they wait until January when the winner is actually sworn in as the 47 POTUS?

For this particular election, it wouldn't surprise me at all if it wasn't until January. I fully expect riots and what not... no matter who wins(maybe not if Trump wins). If KH wins, I would bet at -200 that all hell will break loose. Probably WAY WORSE than January 6th. Keep in mind that it's virtually a coin flip at most Sportsbooks as of right now.

I could be wrong of course... how's my political track record so far? Let's hope I get this one wrong.

[Optional]

Does anyone think a straight bet on the election winner would be paid immediately after the election is certified, and/or after any potential recounts have taken place, OR will they wait until January when the winner is actually sworn in as the 47 POTUS?

I would guess it will be when the results are ratified by congress for most books this time.

I'd plan on that anyway, and just hope for sooner.

[raiders72001]

Polymarket

PA 53/47 Trump
NC 59/41 Trump
GA 63/37 Trump
AZ 63/36 Trump

NV 52/48 Harris
WI 51/49 Harris
MI 53/47 Harris

Looks like Vance helped.

[k13]

Trump 56% at poly and all books following.
What's the main reason?

[ByeShea]

Trump 56% at poly and all books following.
What's the main reason?

Scott Adams: """Hypothetically, if all the private polls are showing a Trump landslide, as the whispers suggest, everyone with access to that non-public information is now placing a bet.When access to information is unequal, as in this case, you could expect a big shift in the betting market when the public information stops matching the private stuff."""-

I saw someone say both campaigns acknowledged Trump polling stronger today and that Trump's campaign shared the internal polling while Kamala's campaign declined. That's a signal.

[DwightShrute]

Trump 56% at poly and all books following.
What's the main reason?

it seems as if whenever Kamala speaks, Trump's number's go up. Could be a coincidence if you believe in coincidences.

Kinda makes sense actually when you consider she never held any interviews for weeks after getting the nod after Biden was forced out.

[johnnyvegas13]

Kicking myself for not taking Harris +165 and instead taking longshots

[ByeShea]

Kicking myself for not taking Harris +165

Give it a week, it will be back and then some.

[DanteNemonic]

We're starting to see a lot of the rich sucker money coming in on Trump from the crypto holders and books have no choice but to move the line.

This week is a good time to start adding Pennsylvania at even or plus money on Kamala.

Early voting has Dems already up 238K to 76k Repub. In Pennsylvania far outpacing prior years. Dems need a plus 450k early voting # to guarantee an unbeatable firewall in PA on election day. So far outstanding!

[DwightShrute]

We're starting to see a lot of the rich sucker money coming in on Trump from the crypto holders and books have no choice but to move the line.

This week is a good time to start adding Pennsylvania at even or plus money on Kamala.

Early voting has Dems already up 238K to 76k Repub. In Pennsylvania far outpacing prior years. Dems need a plus 450k early voting # to guarantee an unbeatable firewall in PA on election day. So far outstanding!

Kamala is out fundraising Trump by a lot actually. 70% of millionaires and billionaires vote democrat.


Trump -136 at Bookmaker

[lakerboy]

Kicking myself for not taking Harris +165 and instead taking longshots

She was+330 for a long time as well.

[k13]

She was+330 for a long time as well.

+5000 at one point

[ByeShea]

It helps to take your eyes off the odds every once in a while and assess what's going on... The Young Turks might be lefty loudmouths, but you can't say he's not calling balls and strikes:

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Just four days later, Trump has definitively taken the lead. When asked how she would be different than Biden, Harris said she would do the same things. Terrible answer. When asked what she would do in the White House, she said she&#39;s not Trump. Terrible answer. Big trouble ahead. <a href="https://t.co/lPWmTa46od">https://t.co/lPWmTa46od</a></p>&mdash; Cenk Uygur (@cenkuygur) <a href="https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1844172628501889250?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 10, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[raiders72001]

RCP avg 53.9/44.7 Trump
Betfair 52-43
Betsson 56-46
Bovada 54-47
BWin 55-46
Pointbet 55-44
Smarkets 52-45

Polymarkets 55-44

AZ 66-35 Trump
GA 63-37 Trump
NC 62-38 Trump
PA 56-45 Trump
MI 52-49 Trump
WI 51-50 Trump

NV 52-49 Harris

Most accurate polls from 2020, Traflagar, Atlas and Rasmussen have Trump winning the popular vote the last I looked but may not now. Personally, I don't see that although made a small wager on it. For those that look at 538, 538 is owned by ABC and they boot pollsters when they don't like their polling results.

Kamala is unlikeable and every interview hurts her. Trump win is great for crypto. Trump wants to make the US the bitcoin capital of the world. He plans to fire Gensler and replace him with an ex-Robinhood person. Elon is pro crypto. I love Trump but may be looking at it through Bitcoin eyes.

[k13]

Polymarket almost 57% for Trump now.

On what?

[Optional]

Polymarket almost 57% for Trump now.

On what?

Feelings?

Starting to feel like Trump has this to me in the last week or two.

[JohnGalt2341]

Feelings?

Starting to feel like Trump has this to me in the last week or two.

He's certainly gained some percentage points since the VP debate. And it appears that he may still be gaining. But he still has less than a 60% chance according to almost every Sportsbook that I'm aware of.


So for you Trumpers... just keep this in mind... I will GUARANTEE that AT LEAST 1 College Football team with a price of +135 or worse will win this Saturday. Probably on Sunday as well. So... if Trump should happen to lose... it doesn't necessarily mean it's rigged. Even if he says it is.

Here's what I recommend to virtually everyone... bet on KH Live on election day. I expect her to get to +200 or maybe even +300(maybe even higher) Live. I won't guarantee you that she will win... but she definitely has at least a 40% chance IMO.

Also... I found this little gem at BetOnline just today.



They only let me bet $25(it might be more for you) on this. It may not win, but I like the value in this.

As always... I could be wrong. Good luck to you!

[k13]

They are taking huge money to move lines on this election.
More than some random football game.