1. 07-02-20 12:51 PM #1
    JohnGalt2341
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    2020 Election by State. Pick 5 upsets and win 500 points.

    I took the state by state odds from both 5Dimes and BetOnline and I turned them into No Juice lines and then converted them into percentages. In order to win the 500 points you must pick 5 upsets. If there is a tie, the person who predicted the single biggest upset(according to percentage) will win 500 points. If there is still a tie, the person who made their guesses first will win. There will be only one winner(or no winner). Below are the percent chances each candidate has of winning the states they are favored in according to the odds from both 5Dimes and BetOnline.

    Trump's favored:
    1. Idaho 94%
    2. Wyoming 93%
    3. North Dakota 93%
    4. Oklahoma 92%
    5. Louisiana 92%
    6. West Virginia 91%
    7. Nebraska 91%
    8. South Dakota 91%
    9. Mississippi 91%
    10. Tennessee 90%
    11. Kentucky 90%
    12. Alabama 90%
    13. Montana 89%
    14. Arkansas 89%
    15. Alaska 85%
    16. South Carolina 85%
    17. Kansas 84%
    18. Indiana 82%
    19. Missouri 82%
    20. Utah 82%
    21. Texas 70%
    22. Iowa 61%
    23. Georgia 57%
    24. Ohio 56%

    Dems win:
    1. Washington DC 98%
    2. California 96%
    3. New York 96%
    4. Hawaii 96%
    5. Vermont 95%
    6. Illinois 94%
    7. Massachusetts 94%
    8. Delaware 93%
    9. Maryland 92%
    10. Washington St. 92%
    11. Oregon 91%
    12. Rhode Island 91%
    13. New Jersey 91%
    14. Connecticut 87%
    15. Colorado 85%
    16. New Mexico 85%
    17. Virginia 82%
    18. Nevada 80%
    19. Maine 76%
    20. Minnesota 73%
    21. New Hampshire 72%
    22. Michigan 70%
    23. Pennsylvania 67%
    24. Wisconsin 63%
    25. Arizona 59%
    26. North Carolina 52%

    I didn't include Florida because you can get -105 at either 5Dimes or BetOnline for one side or the other. When making your predictions PLEASE use the format below.

    Trump wins:
    North Carolina 48%
    Arizona 41%
    Wisconsin 37%

    Dems win:
    Ohio 44%
    Georgia 43%

    You can pick all Dem upsets or all Trump upsets or a combination of the two. If more than 1 person gets 5 upsets correct, the person with the single biggest upset will win the 500 points. All predictions must be made before July 5th. One set of guesses per person, no editing!

    Good luck!
    Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 07-02-20 at 12:54 PM.
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  2. 07-02-20 12:58 PM #2
    RudyRuetigger
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    oops

    read the fukkin percentages wrong

    you are making us do math?
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  3. 07-02-20 12:59 PM #3
    King Mayan
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    Trumps favored in all the welfare states. Lol
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  4. 07-02-20 01:01 PM #4
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by King Mayan View Post
    Trumps favored in all the welfare states. Lol
    Here is a list of happiness according to the state you live in:

    1 Louisiana
    2 Hawaii
    3 Florida
    4 Tennessee
    5 Arizona
    6 Mississippi
    7 Montana
    8 South Carolina
    9 Alabama
    10 Maine
    11 Alaska
    12 North Carolina
    13 Wyoming
    14 Idaho
    15 South Dakota
    16 Texas
    17 Arkansas
    18 Vermont
    19 Georgia
    20 Oklahoma
    21 Colorado
    22 Delaware
    23 Utah
    24 New Mexico
    25 North Dakota
    26 Minnesota
    27 New Hampshire
    28 Virginia
    29 Wisconsin
    30 Oregon
    31 Iowa
    32 Kansas
    33 Nebraska
    34 West Virginia
    35 Kentucky
    36 Washington
    37 District of Columbia
    38 Missouri
    39 Nevada
    40 Maryland
    41 Pennsylvania
    42 Rhode Island
    43 Massachusetts
    44 Ohio
    45 Illinois
    46 California
    47 Indiana
    48 Michigan
    49 New Jersey
    50 Connecticut
    51 New York
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  5. 07-02-20 01:03 PM #5
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    oops

    read the fukkin percentages wrong

    you are making us do math?
    Yes.
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  6. 07-02-20 01:09 PM #6
    pablo222
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Here is a list of happiness according to the state you live in:

    1 Louisiana
    2 Hawaii
    3 Florida
    4 Tennessee
    5 Arizona
    6 Mississippi
    7 Montana
    8 South Carolina
    9 Alabama
    10 Maine
    11 Alaska
    12 North Carolina
    13 Wyoming
    14 Idaho
    15 South Dakota
    16 Texas
    17 Arkansas
    18 Vermont
    19 Georgia
    20 Oklahoma
    21 Colorado
    22 Delaware
    23 Utah
    24 New Mexico
    25 North Dakota
    26 Minnesota
    27 New Hampshire
    28 Virginia
    29 Wisconsin
    30 Oregon
    31 Iowa
    32 Kansas
    33 Nebraska
    34 West Virginia
    35 Kentucky
    36 Washington
    37 District of Columbia
    38 Missouri
    39 Nevada
    40 Maryland
    41 Pennsylvania
    42 Rhode Island
    43 Massachusetts
    44 Ohio
    45 Illinois
    46 California
    47 Indiana
    48 Michigan
    49 New Jersey
    50 Connecticut
    51 New York
    Ignorance is bliss
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  7. 07-02-20 01:10 PM #7
    Slurry Pumper
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    O.K. I'll toss out there:

    Trump Wins:
    Michigan 30%
    Pennsylvania 33%
    Arizona 41%
    Nevada 20%

    Dems Win:
    South Carolina 15%
    By the way, Washington DC is not a state.
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  8. 07-02-20 01:17 PM #8
    PromiseLand
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    GOP Wins:

    Michigan 30%
    Pennsylvania 33%
    Wisconsin 37%
    Arizona 41%
    North Carolina 48%
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  9. 07-02-20 01:19 PM #9
    RudyRuetigger
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    Trump wins:
    North Carolina 48%
    Arizona 41%
    Wisconsin 37%
    Virginia 18%
    Michigan 30%


    Send mine to TRUMP 2024 campaign
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  10. 07-02-20 01:52 PM #10
    King Mayan
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Here is a list of happiness according to the state you live in:

    1 Louisiana
    2 Hawaii
    3 Florida
    4 Tennessee
    5 Arizona
    6 Mississippi
    7 Montana
    8 South Carolina
    9 Alabama
    10 Maine
    11 Alaska
    12 North Carolina
    13 Wyoming
    14 Idaho
    15 South Dakota
    16 Texas
    17 Arkansas
    18 Vermont
    19 Georgia
    20 Oklahoma
    21 Colorado
    22 Delaware
    23 Utah
    24 New Mexico
    25 North Dakota
    26 Minnesota
    27 New Hampshire
    28 Virginia
    29 Wisconsin
    30 Oregon
    31 Iowa
    32 Kansas
    33 Nebraska
    34 West Virginia
    35 Kentucky
    36 Washington
    37 District of Columbia
    38 Missouri
    39 Nevada
    40 Maryland
    41 Pennsylvania
    42 Rhode Island
    43 Massachusetts
    44 Ohio
    45 Illinois
    46 California
    47 Indiana
    48 Michigan
    49 New Jersey
    50 Connecticut
    51 New York
    Yeah all the bigger economy states are unhappy. While all the retired or socialist program receivers live in the happy states. Makes sense.
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  11. 07-02-20 01:54 PM #11
    BarkingToad
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    Trump win
    Minnesota 27
    Michigan 30
    Pennsylvania 33
    Wisconsin 37
    Arizona 41
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  12. 07-02-20 01:57 PM #12
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by King Mayan View Post
    Yeah all the bigger economy states are unhappy. While all the retired or socialist program receivers live in the happy states. Makes sense.

    then vote republican you fukkin clown
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  13. 07-02-20 02:34 PM #13
    fried cheese
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    trump wins:
    north carolina 48%
    arizona 41%
    wisconsin 37%
    michigan 30%

    biden wins:
    georgia 43%
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  14. 07-02-20 02:48 PM #14
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    Texas 70% Trump
    Georgia 57% Trump
    Ohio 56% Trump
    Wisconsin 63% Biden
    Arizona 59% Biden
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  15. 07-02-20 02:50 PM #15
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    Texas 70% Trump
    Georgia 57% Trump
    Ohio 56% Trump
    Wisconsin 63% Biden
    Arizona 59% Biden
    bro follow the guidelines

    galt makes them as confusing as possible
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  16. 07-02-20 03:35 PM #16
    thetrinity
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    Quote Originally Posted by PromiseLand View Post
    GOP Wins:

    Michigan 30%
    Pennsylvania 33%
    Wisconsin 37%
    Arizona 41%
    North Carolina 48%
    He took mine o well
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  17. 07-02-20 03:53 PM #17
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    bro follow the guidelines

    galt makes them as confusing as possible
    This is how you know that I'm not a Democrat, I'm making you put in a little bit of work to win these points. And as you can see... I put in the work as well. You followed my instructions perfectly... well done. I like your dog shot in Virginia...you can get it for +450 at 5Dimes right now. Good luck!
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  18. 07-02-20 04:05 PM #18
    seaborneq
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    Biden wins Texas 30%
    Biden wins Georgia 43%
    Biden wins Ohio 44%
    Trump wins NC 44%
    Trump wins Minnesota 27%
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  19. 07-02-20 04:08 PM #19
    King Mayan
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post

    then vote republican you fukkin clown
    Nah I’ll keep working to maintain your disability payments
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  20. 07-02-20 04:09 PM #20
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    This is how you know that I'm not a Democrat, I'm making you put in a little bit of work to win these points. And as you can see... I put in the work as well. You followed my instructions perfectly... well done. I like your dog shot in Virginia...you can get it for +450 at 5Dimes right now. Good luck!
    the problem here is, per usual, you want to make this a thinking game

    people dont post in players talk to think

    you are trying use data on this

    my opinion is that that data doesnt matter because everyone is relaxed
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  21. 07-02-20 04:09 PM #21
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by King Mayan View Post
    Nah I’ll keep working to maintain your disability payments
    i hope not on roller coasters over 5'5

    although, you might sue for height discimination
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  22. 07-02-20 04:29 PM #22
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    the problem here is, per usual, you want to make this a thinking game

    people dont post in players talk to think

    you are trying use data on this

    my opinion is that that data doesnt matter because everyone is relaxed
    Correct. If you want to play, you have to think. You are not required to play at all. If you have any problems with any of the rules then you don't have to play at all. Pretty simple. I can promise you 100% that I will never go into someones thread where they are giving away 500 points and complain to them about what is required to win the 500 points. That sounds like something a Democrat would do, but I see you do it all the time.

    Yes, I am using data. Okay... let me be honest with you about this. I've been following the states lines for the last few weeks. These lines are constantly moving. I wanted to take a snapshot of the lines being 4 months out of the election. Using 2 different Books and turning the best 2 prices into a No Juice line is a fairly easy way to see what is happening in terms of probability when you are 4 months out from the election. I am fully expecting there to be several upsets. If there is not... well... then... after the election I can come back to this thread and either say..."Wow!!! The books nailed almost everything over -350!" or "Wow!!! Look at how terribly the sportsbooks were at predicting the states 4 months out!"

    All of this... is useful to me. I simply turned it into a contest to make it fun.
    Last edited by JohnGalt2341; 07-02-20 at 04:37 PM.
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  23. 07-02-20 04:42 PM #23
    RudyRuetigger
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    Galt, do you think they are "predicting" or "balancing"

    you clearly already stated your opinion but after seeing the results, why would you consider one is right?

    seems you are determining the outcome as the true result and are judging books

    not fair since you dont know if they are predicting or balancing
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  24. 07-02-20 04:48 PM #24
    fried cheese
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    Correct. If you want to play, you have to think. You are not required to play at all. If you have any problems with any of the rules then you don't have to play at all. Pretty simple. I can promise you 100% that I will never go into someones thread where they are giving away 500 points and complain to them about what is required to win the 500 points. That sounds like something a Democrat would do, but I see you do it all the time.

    Yes, I am using data. Okay... let me be honest with you about this. I've been following the states lines for the last few weeks. These lines are constantly moving. I wanted to take a snapshot of the lines being 4 months out of the election. Using 2 different Books and turning the best 2 prices into a No Juice line is a fairly easy way to see what is happening in terms of probability when you are 4 months out from the election. I am fully expecting there to be several upsets. If there is not... well... then... after the election I can come back to this thread and either say..."Wow!!! The books nailed almost everything over -350!" or "Wow!!! Look at how terribly the sportsbooks were at predicting the states 4 months out!"

    All of this... is useful to me. I simply turned it into a contest to make it fun.


    rudy hates it when ppl are forced to read the rules for contests.
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  25. 07-02-20 04:49 PM #25
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by fried cheese View Post


    rudy hates it when ppl are forced to read the rules for contests.
    quit backing a democrat

    i dont want the points

    i said give it to trump 2024

    fukkin clown
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  26. 07-02-20 04:54 PM #26
    fried cheese
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    quit backing a democrat

    i dont want the points

    i said give it to trump 2024

    fukkin clown
    who ivanka or jr?
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  27. 07-02-20 04:55 PM #27
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by fried cheese View Post
    who ivanka or jr?
    you are a republican

    im actually an INDEPENDENT that has to vote republican down the line this year

    i dont want to hear shit from you

    THANKS
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  28. 07-02-20 04:56 PM #28
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Galt, do you think they are "predicting" or "balancing"

    you clearly already stated your opinion but after seeing the results, why would you consider one is right?

    seems you are determining the outcome as the true result and are judging books

    not fair since you dont know if they are predicting or balancing
    Most likely it's a little bit of both. But it doesn't really matter to me what they are doing. I'm mostly just observing. After the election this thread will still be here. 4 years from now, this thread will still be here.

    Do you think that is there anyway in any form that this thread could ever be useful to anyone in the future?
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  29. 07-02-20 04:57 PM #29
    fried cheese
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    you are a republican

    im actually an INDEPENDENT that has to vote republican down the line this year

    i dont want to hear shit from you

    THANKS
    im not a republican. both parties are just corporate puppets.
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  30. 07-02-20 05:07 PM #30
    Tanko
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    Dems win
    Texas 30% - Had to pick one really long shot and this is it.
    Iowa 39%
    Georgia 43%
    Ohio 44%

    Trump Wins:
    North Carolina 48%
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  31. 07-02-20 05:19 PM #31
    yisman
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    R win North Carolina 48%
    R win Wisconsin 37%
    R win Arizona 41%

    D win Georgia 43%
    D win Ohio 44%
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  32. 07-02-20 05:23 PM #32
    hawkeye 16
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    Dem's win
    Iowa 39%
    Ohio 44%
    Georgia 43%

    Trump wins:
    North Carolina 48%
    Arizona 41%
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  33. 07-02-20 05:54 PM #33
    EmpireMaker
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    Trump wins:
    PA 33%



    Dems win:
    Ohio 44%
    Georgia 43%

    Texas 30%

    Iowa 39%
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  34. 07-02-20 07:41 PM #34
    ace7550
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    Trump wins:
    North Carolina 48%
    Arizona 41%
    Pennsylvania 33%
    Nevada 20%

    Dems win:
    Ohio 44%
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  35. 07-02-20 07:45 PM #35
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by fried cheese View Post
    im not a republican. both parties are just corporate puppets.
    in this and last election cycle, if you vote.....you arent independent

    there is a clear cut line
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