president futures are paying big

[Headsterx]

Does anyone think a straight bet on the election winner would be paid immediately after the election is certified, and/or after any potential recounts have taken place, OR will they wait until January when the winner is actually sworn in as the 47 POTUS?

Last time most books paid when mass media declared a winner. I heard some books waited until January. But if I correctly recalled, BOL and Bovada paid me in mid December when EC result were final.

BOL states the following:

All wagers have action. Graded on official results of the Electoral College, as reported by a consensus between AP, BBC, France 24, Bloomberg and Decision Desk HQ. Book manager’s decision is final.

[semibluff]

He's certainly gained some percentage points since the VP debate. And it appears that he may still be gaining. But he still has less than a 60% chance according to almost every Sportsbook that I'm aware of.


So for you Trumpers... just keep this in mind... I will GUARANTEE that AT LEAST 1 College Football team with a price of +135 or worse will win this Saturday. Probably on Sunday as well. So... if Trump should happen to lose... it doesn't necessarily mean it's rigged. Even if he says it is.

Here's what I recommend to virtually everyone... bet on KH Live on election day. I expect her to get to +200 or maybe even +300(maybe even higher) Live. I won't guarantee you that she will win... but she definitely has at least a 40% chance IMO.

Also... I found this little gem at BetOnline just today.



They only let me bet $25(it might be more for you) on this. It may not win, but I like the value in this.

As always... I could be wrong. Good luck to you!

If you're impartial and you expect Harris to be +200 or +300 later in the election build-up why wouldn't you just recommend betting Trump at -160 now?

[JohnGalt2341]

They are taking huge money to move lines on this election.
More than some random football game.

I'm pretty sure more money was wagered on Super Bowl LV than will be wagered on this election, and as I recall, the favorite got clobbered.

More importantly, let's consider this... here's Pinny's Line for tonight's College Football game between 2 unranked teams:

Western Kentucky +113

Sam Houston State -127

That's a Vig of 2.9%


Now, here's Pinny's Line for the Election:

KH +139

Trump -163

That's a Vig of 3.82%


You know what that tells me? It tells me that Pinny(and virtually every other Sportsbook on the planet for that matter), have more confidence predicting the outcome of some random football game of 2 teams that aren't even ranked in the top 50, than they do of predicting the outcome of this election. Just my opinion.

It's likely that they will get it right... but my whole point is... if they get it wrong... it's not unheard of. And it doesn't necessarily mean that it's rigged, no matter who ends up winning.

[JohnGalt2341]

If you're impartial and you expect Harris to be +200 or +300 later in the election build-up why wouldn't you just recommend betting Trump at -160 now?

Fair point. It's the same reason why I don't(virtually never) make arbitrage bets. Because when you do this, MOST of the time you are betting 1 side that has TONS of value, AND another side where you usually have -EV, just to make a small profit. For me, I just bet the side that I think has +EV, and not the -EV side. It's basically the same reason why I don't recommend taking insurance when playing BlackJack, even if you have a BlackJack yourself. You'll make more money in the long run by not taking these -EV bets.

I don't believe Trump at -160 has value, that's why I don't bet it. If you check some of my earlier posts, it should be evident that I have no problem betting on Reps IF I think there is value in it. If not, I won't bet it. Make sense?

Also... what I am saying is... I expect Harris to be +200 to +300(or more) on election day. But probably not until at least 7PM or later(maybe closer to 10PM). This is when(LIVE) you should bet on her. If I am wrong, feel free to let me know when the time comes.

[k13]

Super bowl not some random college game.

Oh yeah, super bowl got a record 1.3 billion bets.
There's already more bet on polymarket alone.

I don't think American books are even allowed to take election bets. It be easy $10b + bet.

[k13]

Once Trump is up during election then you can bet on Harris after it is fixed again at good odds.

[RudyRuetigger]

I have Kamala at 10:1 from a sportsbook that was late moving the line on her being the nominee

only $45 max though - to win $450

[k13]

Why is there such huge percentages on "other" in early voting?

[RudyRuetigger]

Once Trump is up during election then you can bet on Harris after it is fixed again at good odds.

yea, as soon as I see a water leak in Fulton Co (Atlanta) or vote counting stopping for the night, that's when you bet Kamala in those states



McDonalds is 24hrs a day but we can't get votes to count continuously on the most important day in 4 years?

[JohnGalt2341]

Super bowl not some random college game.

Oh yeah, super bowl got a record 1.3 billion bets.
There's already more bet on polymarket alone.

I don't think American books are even allowed to take election bets. It be easy $10b + bet.

Yeah, but you didn't explain why the Books are charging more Vig on the election than they are on some random college game. Do you know why Books charge more Vig on Player Props? It's because they know they aren't very good at them. Hence, they might not be very sharp. Do you know why Pinny has such low Vig on many of their wagers? It's generally because they know their Lines are sharp.

Here's last years Super Bowl:



Here's Polymarket:


That looks like just under 1 Billion to me. Regardless, more money doesn't necessarily mean a guaranteed outcome. 60% to 40% is still pretty damn close. Try this experiment... put 6 Red marbles in a bag, put 4 Blue marbles in the same bag. Reach in blindly and pull out a marble... if you pull out a Blue one, you shouldn't be that surprised. If you repeat the experiment 10 times, you may even pull out a Blue one 5 or more times. It doesn't mean that it's rigged.

[JohnGalt2341]

I have Kamala at 10:1 from a sportsbook that was late moving the line on her being the nominee

only $45 max though - to win $450

Very nice! Which Book?

[RudyRuetigger]

Very nice! Which Book?

betanysports was late to the party when it was announced biden "probably" wouldnt run


clintons/obama had told him not to run and pelosi had called it out publicly.

[JohnGalt2341]

Once Trump is up during election then you can bet on Harris after it is fixed again at good odds.

You seem to have ZERO understanding of how votes are counted and the voting trends of Reps and Dems. Nor do most people(especially Trump supporters). Trump is counting on this, because he doesn't understand it either. Lucky for you, I do. This is why I am telling you about the LIVE Lines in advance.

[k13]

There's value in whoever becomes a decent underdog live because at the end of the day it is close 50%.

[RudyRuetigger]

You seem to have ZERO understanding of how votes are counted and the voting trends of Reps and Dems. Nor do most people(especially Trump supporters). Trump is counting on this, because he doesn't understand it either. Lucky for you, I do. This is why I am telling you about the LIVE Lines in advance.

A statement like this lets me know you have no clue how they are counted

Tell us how they work.


Very brief please

[RudyRuetigger]

A statement like this lets me know you have no clue how they are counted

Tell us how they work.


Very brief please

no rush galt, take your time

[lakerboy]

no rush galt, take your time

Did you see 60 minutes on the mail in process for Pennsylvania?

[JohnGalt2341]

A statement like this lets me know you have no clue how they are counted

Tell us how they work.


Very brief please

You are probably right.

But here's a hint... not every place counts them the same. Pay attention to the behavior of the voters in some of these places...

[JohnGalt2341]

There's value in whoever becomes a decent underdog live because at the end of the day it is close 50%.

Exactly right. To be honest with you, on election day, I will almost certainly be more focused on individual States when making my LIVE bets, rather than the overall winner as a whole. And I won't hesitate to bet on Trump if the price is right.

[RudyRuetigger]

You are probably right.

But here's a hint... not every place counts them the same.

exactly, but you said much without saying anything at all

[RudyRuetigger]

Did you see 60 minutes on the mail in process for Pennsylvania?

i admit, i quit watching 60minutes, what did they say about it?

[RudyRuetigger]

Exactly right. To be honest with you, on election day, I will almost certainly be more focused on individual States when making my LIVE bets, rather than the overall winner as a whole. And I won't hesitate to bet on Trump if the price is right.

Galt, tell us why you are a democrat

I am open to changing my view of you

i have no problem saying why i am conservative...NOT REPUBLICAN

[JohnGalt2341]

exactly, but you said much without saying anything at all

I learned this from Trump himself.

Galt, tell us why you are a democrat

I am open to changing my view of you

i have no problem saying why i am conservative...NOT REPUBLICAN

I'm not a Democrat. And it amuses me that you think that I am. Show me just 1 single post of mine where I say something positive about ANY Democrat. You won't find one.

The truth is, I just don't like Trump. I think he's awful for this country. Pathological liars cannot, and should not be trusted. KH is also awful, but she's way better than Trump.

Btw Rudy, this thread is about election betting. I will not be responding to any more of your posts unless they involve election wagering of some sort.

[RudyRuetigger]

I learned this from Trump himself.




I'm not a Democrat. And it amuses me that you think that I am. Show me just 1 single post of mine where I say something positive about ANY Democrat. You won't find one.

The truth is, I just don't like Trump. I think he's awful for this country. Pathological liars cannot, and should not be trusted. KH is also awful, but she's way better than Trump.

Btw Rudy, this thread is about election betting. I will not be responding to any more of your posts unless they involve election wagering of some sort.

Every vote counts, so you are influencing the election by voting way more than picking the winning of fsu vs Duke. You should know that

I understand why you aren't saying why

What is your degree in?

[DwightShrute]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I just want to give a huge shoutout to whoever advised Kamala to do more interviews. <br><br>You did this country a huge service. <a href="https://t.co/WAxidnEAYN">pic.twitter.com/WAxidnEAYN</a></p>&mdash; End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) <a href="https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1846685804988620997?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[johnnyvegas13]

Once Trump is up during election then you can bet on Harris after it is fixed again at good odds.

I might do this what price live r u loooking for ???

[lakerboy]

i admit, i quit watching 60minutes, what did they say about it?

They didn't say anything. It's the people who count the votes. They were basically explaining how it takes 4 days to unfold an envelope.

[Bluehorseshoe]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I just want to give a huge shoutout to whoever advised Kamala to do more interviews. <br><br>You did this country a huge service. <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/WAxidnEAYN">pic.twitter.com/WAxidnEAYN</a></p>— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1846685804988620997?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Here's the exact moment when they lost this election...... https://www.npr.org/2020/06/12/87500...s-running-mate

[k13]

I might do this what price live r u loooking for ???

+250 to +300

I think it was around that price close to midnight.

[k13]

61.1% on polymarket now.
Crazy.

[RudyRuetigger]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I just want to give a huge shoutout to whoever advised Kamala to do more interviews. <br><br>You did this country a huge service. <a rel="nofollow" href="https://t.co/WAxidnEAYN">pic.twitter.com/WAxidnEAYN</a></p>&mdash; End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) <a rel="nofollow" href="https://twitter.com/EndWokeness/status/1846685804988620997?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >October 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

congrats on 100k posts

[RudyRuetigger]

They didn't say anything. It's the people who count the votes. They were basically explaining how it takes 4 days to unfold an envelope.

doesnt surprise me

[lakerboy]

The conventional thinking is that Trump will lose the popular vote( the odds on that have dropped ALOT though). Let's say he can't win the popular vote so why not take no at +125 on the first prop and Harris+135 to win the presidency? Am I missing something?

[JohnGalt2341]

The conventional thinking is that Trump will lose the popular vote( the odds on that have dropped ALOT though). Let's say he can't win the popular vote so why not take no at +125 on the first prop and Harris+135 to win the presidency? Am I missing something?

No, you're not. I just came in here to post this. Except I'm not betting on Harris at +135 because I think I can get a much better price in the evening of election day. However, I like this +125 price quite a bit. As far as I am concerned, this is like getting Trump at +125, AND BetOnline will let you bet up to $500 on this.

Get in on this one boys! I know many of you still think Trump will win the popular vote, but I think the chances of that are slim.

[ChuckyTheGoat]

John, how long are you on Harris to win the Popular vote? -250 seems cheap to me.