KVB Post Your Contrarian Fund Report

[KVB]

...We remain fully funded with a positive season outlook and a short term sideways to downward market...

Since that post we ran up a little more to that highest resistance line before meeting the resistance and heading sideways now. Our hope is to escape to the All Star break without any major volatile moves, especially downward. We have been stepping upward, as I mentioned would be healthy before, but we are still on a pretty steep climb.

Some of us are predicting a -4 unit loss here before the All Star break, and some think we'll lose it and get it back by then. I think we'll lose it and not get it back by then.

Here's the recent summary...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after 205 plays with links to each play. The current ROI of the Fund is 3.1%...

963	8-Jul	OAK +164	1.64
		Thu	1.64
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Week 13	0.56
		Week 14	5.91
		Mon	3.54
		Tue	2.13
		Wed	-1.8
		Total	6.35

Here's the chart...


...

[Joe Sharp]

Noted. Let's tread lightly thru the weekend and aim to protect our profits. It's not a sprint, we can press after the break. Best of luck KVB.

[KVB]

The Fund is in action with Texas and New York...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

922	9-Jul	TEX +121
923		NYY +122

Backbone plays. Deep line shopping here.

[KVB]

Noted. Let's tread lightly thru the weekend and aim to protect our profits. It's not a sprint, we can press after the break. Best of luck KVB.

Feels like a dicey time for sure, anything can happen.

What a ride so far though, huh? Crazy.

[jjgold]

complicated thread

[KVB]

Not really. There's nothing simple about plying the markets but I've simplified it quite a bit..

It is a report thread though, not really meant for posting plays.

Aren't you at least curious to see what happens next?

I am.

[KVB]

Here's the recent summary...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund with links to each play...

922	9-Jul	TEX +121	1.21
923		NYY +122	1.22
		Fri	2.43
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Week 13	0.56
		Week 14	5.91
		Mon	3.54
		Tue	2.13
		Wed	-1.8
		Thu	1.64
		Total	8.78

Here's the 2 year chart. We are 1.5 units off of the 2 season high.

I still have some of those support/resistance lines in the charts, for a reason...


...

We coninue to run hot, with increasing momentum. I still maintain we could see about a -4 unit loss before the break, but we avoided any of that yesterday. I have been right an awful lot in predicting what the market will do, I'm hoping to be wrong with this small, prediction.

We remain fully Funded and are not removing any assets at this time, even though it looks like a real good idea now. Our outlook is the same, expecting a sideways to down market of the the near term but we still remain bullish overall.

These bull runs can really get going, as we've seen.

[KVB]

On WAS, Balty, and Philly in the backbone...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

951	10-Jul	WAS +178
972		BAL +187
979		PHI +145

Backbone plays.

[jjgold]

Sexy thread

[KVB]

Sexy thread

There is not one poster the gets this or gets why it happens, not one.

Not one poster able to answer how this is possible, not even a guess.

Gold, as simple as I make it, this thread goes over the heads of everyone here. Pretty far over their heads too.

Only those who have followed all the market tracking Funds over the years are even close to understanding. One issue is the overall poor gambling IQ here at SBR. Bettors haveno chance of understanding these concepts if they can't get the basic concepts.

I will continue to educate in the picks thread but it's definitely the epitome of swimming upstream...lol.

Perhaps it's video time.

[jjgold]

KVB you need to worry about more getting laid let me worry about charts and technical analysis

[KVB]

KVB you need to worry about more getting laid let me worry about charts and technical analysis

I sleep with a naked woman next to me every night, Gold.

Also, added COL...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

963

10-Jul

COL +175

Backbone play. BAS shows +172, BetNow +175.
Note the rotation number...

[thomorino]

All Kvb does is post meaningless charts and stays all day, no bets because he never wins. Just a boring and annoying person.

[vitterd]

KVB you need to worry about more getting laid let me worry about charts and technical analysis

This thread isn’t even near Vitterd All Sports Thread which is now the biggest winning thread in sbr history. This is word jumbles and trying to put together a puzzle. Nobody wants a graph….they want a winner. This belongs in the saloon

[jjgold]

I see bets all the time
Morino you’re down 200 units

All Kvb does is post meaningless charts and stays all day, no bets because he never wins. Just a boring and annoying person.

[thomorino]

I see bets all the time
Morino you’re down 200 units

Wrong, that is not my record you dumb shit.

[KVB]

Here's the recent summary...

Let's get some results down. I fell like I haven't brought up as many teaching points recently but we've kind of been on a little break here in the office and with only one Fund being posted there's only so much to put out there.

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund through 211 plays with links to each play...

10-Jul	WAS +178	-1
	COL +175	1.75
	BAL +187	-1
	PHI +145	1.45
	Sat	1.2
	Week 1-4	5.03
	Week 5-8	-3.32
	Week 9-12	-7.34
	Week 13	0.56
	Week 14	5.91
	Mon	3.54
	Tue	2.13
	Wed	-1.8
	Thu	1.64
	Fri	2.43
	Total	9.98

Here's the chart. We continue the bull run and the last test of the SMA 10 as support has led to a breakout of that pre crash range, already.


...

[jjgold]

Bull run

Text book

[KVB]

Bull run

Text book

It's the second bull run in the backbone since the beginning of last season. The first was coming out of a partial reverse head and shoulders and this one out of a bull "W" pattern.

Gold, if you have any knowledge of stock trading or technical reading, then try to answer my question.

How is this possible? It's something I've been teaching by example, proving something everyone else in the Forum can only try to argue with zero background knowledge.

Gold this goes far above the level and sports betting IQ of the SBR Forum, far above. Not sure there is a single reader or poster out there that understands what is happening here.

But don't get me wrong, plenty of posters can pick up what I'm putting down, it's just very difficult to pick up anything else here, unless I put it down.

I exist outside the cave Gold, and I'm just trying to shed a little light of reality upon the darkness of ignorance that is SBR. I don't expect but a tiny fraction to understand and only a fraction of that would know what to do with it if they did understand.

The real meat of it all is, of course, always in FlyMe as it's knowledge for the esoteric.

[jjgold]

This is one of the biggest bull runs you’ve been on let’s not kid yourself

When is the time to start fading you

[KVB]

This is one of the biggest bull runs you’ve been on let’s not kid yourself...

Gold it's practically a yearly occurrence.

This recent run from the bottom this season is a +22.86 run over 41 plays.

Last seasons total run from the bottom to the high this season was +27.76 units over 77 plays, but it was a +21.18 unit run over the last 39 of those plays.

This run is comparable to last year, could continue a little further and when it stops running it could go sideways short term.

Psychologically, understand the rides the technical bettor has been through, look at the charts, patterns, signals, and what happened right after.

We are not going to be quick to time this market on it's pullback, we will watch the lagging indicators and of course the leading indicators.

Don't allow the market to force you to become impatient Gold, you already did that a couple of times this season and we are just heading into the all star break.

We remain fully funded, even at these levels.

[KVB]

We are in action with Pit, Was, Zona and Cle...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

904	16-Jul	PIT +145
906		WAS +138
916		ARI +139
931		CLE +183

Backbone plays. Bookmaker with the generous Cleveland line.

Good Luck, we've been on quite a run leading into the break and I did have some auxillary reports for to share. I will have to get to it later but coming back from the break with 4 backbone market tracking plays makes us market watchers a little nervous.

We reamain fully funded with a positive outlook but we are also running hot with some techncal indicators showing we should get a pullback and sideways market before a further short term direction is decided, up or down..

We can't rule out market shakeouts here and the most conservative of Contrarian Fund strategies is to pull back and buy on the dips. But we are not conservative here and sitting on gains from the bull run we will continue to play the market, even if there is short term pain.

[KVB]

Running Cleveland back here in the Fund.

Here's the play and the recent summary.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

967

17-Jul

CLE +161

Backbone play.

Here's the recent summary...

904	16-Jul	PIT +145	1.45
906		WAS +138	-1
916		ARI +139	-1
931		CLE +183	-1
		Fri	-1.55
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Week 13	0.56
		Week 14	5.91
		Week 15	9.14
		Total	8.43

Here's the chart, we hit a season high before pulling back to just below the SMA 10, breaking through the SMA 10 could represent some downward pressure here short term in the Fund...

Our value has dropped below the SMA 10, and it could be a concern as we head towards the 10. Notice the last time we dipped below that SMA 10 we had the SMA 100 as support. This time we'll have to rely on that SMA 20.

[KVB]

Added Was, Pit, and Balty...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has added...

954	17-Jun	WAS +121
956		PIT +152
971		BAL +148

Backbone play...

[jjgold]

Best of luck Tanner

Lol you Cali guys got weird names

Tanner

[KVB]

[KVB]

The Fund is in action today with Col and Tex but we have not finished yesterday's action...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

912	18-Jul	COL +140
931		TEX +205

Backbone plays.

There are no results from yesterday as the SD/WAS will be continued today. Here are yesterday's results so far...

954	17-Jul	WAS +121
956		PIT +152	1.52
967		CLE +161	1.61
971		BAL +148	1.48
		Sat	4.61

[KVB]

It's not much of a report but it's the latest KVB NBA Contrarian Fund Playoff summary, so it belongs in this thread.

It's been a grind...

Here's the KVB NBA Contrarian Fund Playoffs...

				1 Unit
	Record	Date	NBA Contrarian Fund Playoffs	per bet
567		19-May	SA +4 (-101)	0
579		21-May	MEM +5 (-108)	0.93
501		23-May	ATL +1.5 (-110)	0.91
543		26-May	ATL +2 (-103)	-1
872		29-May	MIA +5 (-110)	-1
578			MEM +5.5 (-110)	-1
506		30-May	BOS +8.5 (+100)	-1
512		31-May	WAS +9 (-108)	0.93
514			MEM +5.5 (-103)	-1
574		6-Jun	LAC -6.5 (-105)	0.95
554		13-Jun	DEN +3.5 (-110)	-1
521		19-Jun	MIL +2 (-104)	0.96
582		25-Jun	MIL -8.5 (-104)	0.96
509		17-Jul	MIL +4.5 (-110)	0.91
			Total	0.55

[Machba]

Kvb (bow)

[jjgold]

Tanner what is the game plan today

[KVB]

Tanner what is the game plan today

Yesterday I covered a song for SBR, today I plan to answer one of your questions actually. I need to go back and find it but I think it had to do with when to fade or pull back.

I went back and looked and did find this little exchange...

When the chart was this...



You said this...

I’m probably looking for a fade starting Sunday or Monday depending on the curve

That was on July 1st and I responded with this...

Be careful, don't try to swing trade this literal day trading market.

It can fool you with these curves that it generates.....the rest of this post isa for FlyMe, in the Saloon.

Sorry pal, I can't lift a heaping spoonful right up to your face.

You have to be able to accept for yourself. Did you see what I did in the WNBA thread yesterday Gold? I wallked us through one.

It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it and it's only when you can accept what they bring that you can truly accept how they bring it.

Anyway I was thinking of introducing some other metrics, including charting and moving averages that can tell us we've been running hot, which ones to ingore, and which ones to pay attention to.

Let's see what I get to.

[KVB]

...Our value has dropped below the SMA 10, and it could be a concern as we head towards the 10. Notice the last time we dipped below that SMA 10 we had the SMA 100 as support. This time we'll have to rely on that SMA 20...

This support of the SMA 20 (light blue line in the charts) is exactly what we got.

Here's the recent summary...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after yesterday. The Washington loss finished today...

954	17-Jul	WAS +121	-1
956		PIT +152	1.52
967		CLE +161	1.61
971		BAL +148	1.48
		Sat	3.61
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Week 13	0.56
		Week 14	5.91
		Week 15	9.14
		Fri	-1.55
		Total	12.04

Here's the chart. At the last summary I posted this in the Contrarian report thread...

...Our value has dropped below the SMA 10, and it could be a concern as we head towards the 10. Notice the last time we dipped below that SMA 10 we had the SMA 100 as support. This time we'll have to rely on that SMA 20...

Notice the support off of the SMA 20 with yesterday's games, which has led us to a season high...

We are running hot, including the near term win percentage for the Fund.

We are at a season high of +12.04 units and a 2 year high of +19.91 units.

As stated in early summaries, expect sideways to down a little, but it's no reason to reduce Funding. There are healthy losses and pullbacks and quite frankly the Washington loss yesterday puts us at the SMA 20, prime for the bounce, which we got.

Had Washington come back this morning and won that game, sure we get a rise, but we don't get the "healthy" give and take market we've come to know and love.

[KVB]

In this recent bull run I want to point out some facts on the charts when it comes to the SMA's and support and resistance.

Instead of multiple posts I'm going to try to accomplish all of it with one zoomed graph.

1) Our support comes with the SMAs and I want to focus on the recent bull run. Since completing the "W" pattern, where the last part of the W reaches the middle level of the W, completing the W.

The first thing we did was hit resistance at the SMA 200, marked with a red circle.

From there we found support stepping upwards at the SMA100, 200, 10, then 20, all marked with the green circles. Yes we fell through the SMA 10 to get to the SMA 20, it's the nature of those close Simple Moving Averages. The key is that the SMA 10 didn't fall below the SMA 20 and that the Units, after bouncing off the SMA 20, have blown. through the SMA 10.

That leaves us with one SMA on our chart to find support with...the SMA 50, represented by the thin green line. Notice the SMA 50 has blown through both the SMA 100 and 200, it appears to be on it's way...



2) I don't usually use the unit lines as reference because each player will get different prices. In our chart here, the red arrows show how we've found support at the +5 and +15 unit marks in the two year chart. In each case it's really the first time those lines market support, as they had previouly been resistance, marked with the yellow highlight. Note both spots marked with the arrows also bounce off of SMA's, which may be the more important factor here.

We like to see resistance become support but notice that the +10 unit line in the chart has in the past represented more resistance than support, also marked with the yellow highlight. It's a level we have yet to really show support and that could be something we end up coming back to before the season ends. If you look at the full chart you can see how this is true going back to the beginning of the season.

So for now we continue to watch the SMAs especially the SMA 50 and would expect, as said before, a sideways to downward market to help put our units towards that SMA 50. It's a pretty healthy althought steep bull run here as we've stepped up using those moving averages and support as well as turning previous resistance into support.

[KVB]

Here's the recent summary...

Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund Backbone through 221 plays with links to each play...

912	18-Jul	COL +140	1.4
931		TEX +205	-1
		Sun	0.4
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Week 13	0.56
		Week 14	5.91
		Week 15	9.14
		Fri	-1.55
		Sat	3.61
		Total	12.44

We have reached another season high. Here's the two year chart...

[KVB]

A Note on the Fund tracking...

Last week I said this...

Later this month I will be gone, outright gone and possibly out of touch completely for a couple of days.

I have made arrangements to have most betting in my office continue, but it's possibe one or two days go by where I do not post Fund triggers. That is rare.

If it's the backbone I will have to put those plays in the tracking, posted or not, as any plays will be part of the index. Hopefully they lose so I won't have add it to every summary...

The other option is to stop tracking the Fund backbone altogether and maybe just post the aggressive buys or swings.

I really don't like having charts with plays not posted, there's an integrity issue. Best case scenario is the plays lose, and then I won't feel so bad adding the losers into the record.

But starting tomorrow I may not be posting the MLB contrarian plays. I might get them in tomorrow, but Tuesday and Wednesday I may not be able to log into SBR at all, even if my office does make the buys...