KVB Post Your Contrarian Fund Report

[BeatTheJerk]

Tough opponent and we are definitely going agains the grain here.

Would be nice win at better than 2-1.

Let’s cash his mother bleeper right quick tho

[BeatTheJerk]

Unreal ...

[KVB]

Detroit with the best shot at coming back otherwise yet another little shakeout, but it's the good kind with blowouts. We like the demoralizing market. That's probably more for the other thread, as this is just a report thread. This thread's not even supposed to have plays.



It's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

[KVB]

...Now we enter the phase of back and forth as the markets continue to shake out both sides of participants.

A further drop is not inconceivable here as we test support, again...

[BeatTheJerk]

Tigers +1391

[KVB]

Tigers +1391

[BeatTheJerk]

Betting against a streak is a “no no” for me. I went against one of my rules & this has absolutely no chance to win. I know KVB you bet it for different reasons, but at the end of the day it’s a terrible pick.

[jjgold]

Houston’s the best team in baseball and Detroit one of the worst there’s no value in a game like that

[stevex]

Houston’s the best team in baseball and Detroit one of the worst there’s no value in a game like that

Exactly.

[BeatTheJerk]

Houston’s the best team in baseball and Detroit one of the worst there’s no value in a game like that

Most definitely.

[KVB]

Houston’s the best team in baseball and Detroit one of the worst there’s no value in a game like that

Remember, this is a market tracking Fund, at better than 2-1 it identifies the value. There is value in a game like that for the Contrarian Fund backbone. If there wasn't, it wouldn't trigger.

We want plays like this in the Fund, win or lose. Remember, we're not trying to fight the market here, there will be shakeout after shakeout as the season progresses so we will see mismatches in the Fund. It's the nature of the contrarian markets.

It makes no sense to weigh the value and try to consider whether or not it's a good or bad pick. The Fund already does that for you.

[KVB]

Betting against a streak is a “no no” for me. I went against one of my rules & this has absolutely no chance to win. I know KVB you bet it for different reasons, but at the end of the day it’s a terrible pick.

No, it's a Contrarian Fund Backbone play. Every day it appears to make terrible picks.

The value in the market is there and Detroit made it's cylce into the Fund. I wouldn't change a thing here.

Remember, we're not trying to call the winner of the game here, we're making the winning long term bet.

When it's time to call winner of the game, it will be when we get rangebound, like we were doing earlier in the season. Those will be Aggressive Trades, like in the NBA.

For now we just need to plow through the triggers to develop the market.

I hope that makes sense.

[BeatTheJerk]

No, it's a Contrarian Fund Backbone play. Every day it appears to make terrible picks.

The value in the market is there and Detroit made it's cylce into the Fund. I wouldn't change a thing here.

Remember, we're not trying to call the winner of the game here, we're making the winning long term bet.

When it's time to call winner of the game, it will be when we get rangebound, like we were doing earlier in the season. Those will be Aggressive Trades, like in the NBA.

For now we just need to plow through the triggers to develop the market.

I hope that makes sense.

It does thanks for explaining.

[BeatTheJerk]

So KVB why didn’t the Cubs trigger the value button tonight ?

[stevex]

So KVB why didn’t the Cubs trigger the value button tonight ?

They're up 1-0 so let's not get crazy here with why the "fund" didn't trigger on the Cubbies. The public has been having a field day the past month in MLB so I do agree with KVB that things will eventually even out.

[BeatTheJerk]

They're up 1-0 so let's not get crazy here with why the "fund" didn't trigger on the Cubbies. The public has been having a field day the past month in MLB so I do agree with KVB that things will eventually even out.

I didn’t even check the score to be honest at that point in time. I was just comparing prices & they were similar at more than 2 to 1.

[KVB]

So KVB why didn’t the Cubs trigger the value button tonight ?

Not only does the stacking forecast have the Cubs losing significantly, but the Cubs really aren't much of a contrarian play in the market. It's low grade without enough adjustments to bring the forecasts close enough to dig out value.

For the Cubs to trigger I would have had to open the target circle so wide it would go beyond even the broader Contrarian Fund. The Backbone is an even tighter circle than the broader Fund.

They just weren't contrarian, there was too much interest in them in the market and there was little hope of them triggering.

[KVB]

I didn’t even check the score to be honest at that point in time. I was just comparing prices & they were similar at more than 2 to 1.

Maybe comparable in prices, but not in the forecasts nor in the pressure seen in the market.

Remember, I am expecting losses here in this market...

...Now we enter the phase of back and forth as the markets continue to shake out both sides of participants.

A further drop is not inconceivable here as we test support, again...

I expect shakeouts on both sides of the market as we enter the next rading range.

It's par for the course and why I posted it.

In fact, the charts tell us so by themselves, but I don't need the charts to confirm the market environment.

[BeatTheJerk]

Not only does the stacking forecast have the Cubs losing significantly, but the Cubs really aren't much of a contrarian play in the market. It's low grade without enough adjustments to bring the forecasts close enough to dig out value.

For the Cubs to trigger I would have had to open the target circle so wide it would go beyond even the broader Contrarian Fund. The Backbone is an even tighter circle than the broader Fund.

They just weren't contrarian, there was too much interest in them in the market and there was little hope of them triggering.

Thank you again for your analysis

[KVB]

Thank you again for your analysis

It's a good question. Many days I put that Contrarian Fund radar anlaysis in the daily pics thread. You hear me talking about the Forecasts and where the market adjustments are bringing them into value.

Sometimes we get forecasts where the dog is outright winning and also a strong contrarian look in the market. Sometimes we are taking a blowout and using those adjustments to get the game closer.

Contrarian adjustments come from a number of angles. Sometimes there's pressure in the market and the line just won't budge, depending on the overall environment, this can lead to big adjustments. Sometimes the the public perception is just way off and there's a difference between sharper market trades and the regular hum ho of trading.

The Fund tracks the cat and mouse of that side of the market.

[BeatTheJerk]

Ok one last question & I’ll leave you alone for the night. Why doesn’t the fund find value in the MLB favs most nights ?

[KVB]

Ok one last question & I’ll leave you alone for the night. Why doesn’t the fund find value in the MLB favs most nights ?

We do get favorites and actually this year we've had a few including LAA -122 nad NYY -119 recently.

The public just loves those favorites and Overs and the books often take a position exploiting that.

They either protect and make the line high, giving us value on the take of the dog or they exploit the thirst for faves and intentionally keep the line depressed as they take action on the favorite.

You'll often here me say that the books are happily taking bets on so and so team meaning they are taking the action but not moving that line up. They might even move it the other way as they get pressure from those bigger contrarian bettors.

With spreads they can go both ways, dog and fave based on the number. With the moneylines it tends to materialize just the one way, with the public taking that favorite.

The more detailed I get with that sort of "on the radar" report, the more each play or potential play makes sense. I've been thinking about going over the games by video, to really get into some of the capping.

[BeatTheJerk]

We do get favorites and actually this year we've had a few including LAA -122 nad NYY -119 recently.

The public just loves those favorites and Overs and the books often take a position exploiting that.

They either protect and make the line high, giving us value on the take of the dog or they exploit the thirst for faves and intentionally keep the line depressed as they take action on the favorite.

You'll often here me say that the books are happily taking bets on so and so team meaning they are taking the action but not moving that line up. They might even move it the other way as they get pressure from those bigger contrarian bettors.

With spreads they can go both ways, dog and fave based on the number. With the moneylines it tends to materialize just the one way, with the public taking that favorite.

The more detailed I get with that sort of "on the radar" report, the more each play or potential play makes sense. I've been thinking about going over the games by video, to really get into some of the capping.

That would be great to watch a video of it all, but not expected. You have an interesting way to bet on games as opposed to the rest of us with the normal generic handicapping options.

[stevex]

The only thing that I would add to the market is factoring in streaks. Orioles came in ice cold, Dodgers came in off a sweep if I’m not mistaken? Can that be factored in at all?

[KVB]

The Fund is in action today with Cubs and Angels.

Here are the plays and the recent summary.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

915	25-Jun	CHI +159
921		LAA +153

Backbone plays.

Here's the recent summary...

962	24-Jun	TEX +135	-1
963		BAL +174	-1
966		DET +213	-1
		Thu	-3
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Mon	2.16
		Tue	-1.41
		Wed	-2
		Total	-9.88

Here's the recent chart as expected volatility continues...

As stated, the expected volatility continues and we should expect even more.

[jjgold]

The problem is volatility sportsbetting=losing

volatility stocks opportunity

[KVB]

The problem is volatility sportsbetting=losing

volatility stocks opportunity

This is wrong. I've shown that this is wrong by example across three different sports with KVB Market Tracking Funds.

It's something I've proven step by step, by example.



Market tracking is not your everyday sportsbetting Gold, it requires far more balls than just gambling on sports. It is volatility, by definition.

[jjgold]

Don’t like the trends

Why not much strength?

[KVB]

Don’t like the trends

Why not much strength?

Gold it's give and take.

We covered a "gap" from last year that was just a part of where the Fund gained +28 units in just 78 plays. You can't expect that to go on forever. We went for a near reverse head and shoulders to a true and complete head and shoulders. How do you think this is possible? Think about it.

And now, like I said, we are in a period of the season where both sides of the market will be getting shaken out.

...Now we enter the phase of back and forth as the markets continue to shake out both sides of participants.

A further drop is not inconceivable here as we test support, again...

It's wholly natural Gold, we have to be patient. These shakeouts are designed to test that patience.

Here's the recent KVB NBA Contrarian Fund Playoff summary, the last two wins and the -.36 unit Playoff total...

				1 Unit
	Record	Date	NBA Contrarian Fund Playoffs	per bet
521		19-Jun	MIL +2 (-104)	0.96
582		25-Jun	MIL -8.5 (-104)	0.96
			Total	-0.36

..

[BeatTheJerk]

The dogs are barking tonight & I played 7 heavy favorites at least it was for small amounts. I bet 8 favorites total & I’m gonna go 4-4 best case scenario on those it looks like.

[BeatTheJerk]

I’m a fuckin’ mush right now. I kid you not ...

[KVB]

On another pullback too Jerky, but this time is was totally predicted.

[KVB]

I know this isn't a picks or posting plays thread, it's just meant for reports, but I have been posting plays here recently for the benefit of some who have asked.

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund backbone is in play with Detroit again.

Here's the play and the recent summary with links to every play...

The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...

982

26-Jun

DET +192

Backbone play.

Here's the recent summary with links to each play...

915	25-Jun	CHI +159	-1
921		LAA +153	-1
		Fri
		Week 1-4	5.03
		Week 5-8	-3.32
		Week 9-12	-7.34
		Mon	2.16
		Tue	-1.41
		Wed	-2
		Thu	-3
		Total	-9.88

Here's the recent chart...


...

[jjgold]

omg crash

[KVB]

omg crash

Yes, 100% predicted too...

...Now we enter the phase of back and forth as the markets continue to shake out both sides of participants...

I hope you cashed in on it.