who are your top 3 plays today
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KV i found POTM thread
have not watched yet
holy fawk nicely done skin !!!
heading out will make Ash$$$ watch laterComment -
Arizona has 17 straight loses on the road
KVB are you drinkingComment -
That's just noise Gold just noise.
Besides, I read your Thesis on the Due Factor that can be found online...somewhere and while there may be some dubious steps in your calculations, your work on the minor progressions of Due Theory and it's effect on both the emboldened and battered betting popluations is unsurpassed.
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Oh wait, that was my thesis.
Well you came to the same parallel conculsion I did from across the country, independently.
Like when calculus was created.
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I realize this isn't always reflected in the the Fund value chart as it this is more an overall bankroll thing, but we are laying into Balty pretty good here. Several short term indicators show a small bump here but we are not out of the woods of a protracted donw turn either.
Pounding Balty.
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Some of the rationale for punding Balty, in the face of rotation order risk.
We are looking at a bounce off the 200 SMA and we are betting that bounce.
Here we are with a Zona loss today. If Minny or Pit or another earlier rotation number triggers this may not be the bounce...
Betting the Bounce here, even with the rotation order risk.
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Baby BaZ….Comment -
Tomorrow’s a major but all the signals are saying jump on boardComment -
like Coach said today's the day KV leggoComment -
you like betting bad teams one of your weaknessesComment -
Not afraig to go LIVE here.Let's fukkin go Reds!!!!!
I pounded the fukker.
My position is huge and I am overexposed this morning. Timing of the day, as we have been seeing, can matter and I have even made metrics titled "Early Bird Gets The Worm, Until it Doesn't" based entirely on market concept that I created.
Today, we believe the early bird gets the worm. And there were some metrics that pointed to Pit today as well. But the discipline of the Backbone was able to parse the two apart.
Let's see if it made the right decision.
The Fund isn't pulling anymore, we're pushing...
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Our next support is pretty low...
We are in strong SELL signal here a any real support is a little ways away. We should see a bounce along the way, but I mentioned at an early test, early in this range, that making that sharp rise post Head and Shoulder's peak was in the cards. We finally fell through support and it is certainly back in the cards.
The initial rush of the NHL and NBA playoffs effectively held off this break out. Anyone trading the range and profiting during the past month or so, as I have, are now in a freefall.
Like I've said before, win, lose, up, down, sideway, etc. I am glad that we are seeing the real time examples that we are seeing. So far I have been spot on with judging the market here, my support lines have nailed it as well. We are getting caught in the crash though.
That second purple dot came too soon and the yellow and first purple dot were great calls.
Now I'm saying that the next bit of playoff rush should hopefully help support the market here. Where and when the it is I've drawn in red, basically. The MLB season itself will also be a part of that support and is what could drive us back into profit for the season as late as, you guessed it, when the NFL season brings in the money.
Many of us were fooled in this range, with several tests of resistance and support implying we would break out to the upside. Notice the crash coming from a higher spot in the range, making that SELL signal pretty accurate.
The idea of shorting or fading the Fund now is on the table, put it's also a little late for that, we are working that out now.
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Note I have fixed the xhart above, a mistake was discovered when on Sept 22 last an extra 1.46 units were added to this oonger chart. The 2020-2021 chart has been accurate.
The new chart does shoe we are closer to the first red support line than it originally appeared...
Again, the new chart...
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Here's the recent summary...
Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after Thurs and after 8 losses in a row with links to the plays...
Here's the chart, I posted yesterday as well, the longer term chart to better get a picture of the market crash...954 10-Sep CIN +103 -1 Thu -1 Week 1-4 5.03 Week 5-8 -3.32 Week 9 3.75 Week 10 -0.9 Mon -1 Tue -4 Wed -2 Total -3.44
Here's the 2 season chart with the red lines...
Love that we have had all kinds of examples of the markets over the last two years, all posted.
Don't like getting caught up in the market crash. All the signs were there, I even warned, but I still held, didn't short, and didn't pass.
Now it will be about a bottom and recovery. Not much more to add. We are in a deep SELL signal and the Contrarian Report thread will have further charts...
Here are some further technicals...
And here is the season to date chart...
Still looking to those red lines for support even if we don't directly hit them. We could get some wins and losses moving forward to step down to one of those supports before a sideways and upward market. Clearly it's volatile and could quickly rise, but it's also evident we have made up that "Gap" or rise from late last season; something I posted more about one of the first times we tested the lowest support in the range since the Head and Shoulder market turn signal.
Through money management and discipline we will get through this market and make it to the playoffs.
The charts don't look pretty, the market doesn't look pretty, so let's get some pretty on this page...
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KVB I hate to say it your in a Bear Market now
I would not touch you with a 40 ft poleComment -
Sudden drop does not make a bear market Gold. That head and shoulder pattern makes the bear market, really. We've seen this before, and MLB tends to turn around faster than other sports.
More importantly, though, is that we can still make money no matter the market direction. We will trade the signals and take advantage of the market bottom.
As always.Comment -
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KVB when do you start getting worried?Comment -
Never. It's a market tracking Fund I don't think you're grasping what's going on here. We will find support and we will be fine.
We can trade bear markets too, but understand there is a lot of MLB baseball left this season alone, including the playoffs.
We've had a pretty deep shake out this season Gold and if all 3 bets lose tonight, the Fund will only be down -6.44 units on the season. We had a good range to trade in and up form last year too. It's ok.
I mentioned several times when testing that range earlier that the rise we saw at the end of last season, could be "covered" and first drew those red support lines a month ago.
If we zoom out the chart further you can get more context.
But how about I just show you the 2019 Broader Fund chart.
Remember this?...
These are the sports markets Gold, they are full of shakeouts, shakeups, and even have variance of there own.
This is to be expected and not to be feared. It's part of the natural course of the markets.
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Here's the most recent summary.
The most notable aspects are that we have the SMA 10 dipping below the SMA 200 and that this 11 game market shakeout has effectively covered the "gap" of last years sharp rise.
Well, an 11 loss streak in a contrarian Fund is pretty rare but we are sort of making up that "gap" or sharp rise from last year. I can't imagine this whole year has been a dead cat bounce and there is so much season left.
We've been in worse spots and shakeouts over the last few years at SBR. I made a post in the Contrarian Report thread that shows that infamous 2019 chart of the Broader Fund.
Here's the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund after yesterday and 11 straight losses...
That first red line in the chart, if you notice isn't really support. It's more like a resistance of the next range.913 11-Jun BAL +170 -1 916 DET +133 -1 922 MIN +130 -1 Fri -3 Week 1-4 5.03 Week 5-8 -3.32 Week 9 3.75 Week 10 -0.9 Mon -1 Tue -4 Wed -2 Thu -1 Total -6.44
Real support is still a couple of units away. The SMA 10 is now below the SMA 200.
Win or lose, I'm glad we've seen these examples in the charting...
We've officially covered the "gap" from the end of last year.
Let's see if we get a market we can trade now...
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Tilt nowComment -
lol you know better than to try to pull that shit with me, you know I stable as oak here.
Gold this is nothing, we could have it back by the middle of next week. Just look at the charts from the past.
Every market, every year, has at least one shakeout. It's the nature of the beast.
We are countering the steam and WAS has moved into position...
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Gl you are going to need it.jj fukkin up ur thread.Comment -
Need a 15-5 runComment -
Here are today's plays and the recent summary...
The KVB MLB Contrarian Fund has picked up...
Backbone plays.902 13-Jun WAS -104 904 NYM +114 907 COL +146
Here are the recen results...
We have a perfect bounce the point where we exactly covered the rise, or "gap" from the end of last year.982 12-Jun WAS +149 1.49 Sat 1.49 Week 1-4 5.03 Week 5-8 -3.32 Week 9 3.75 Week 10 -0.9 Mon -1 Tue -4 Wed -2 Thu -1 Fri -3 Total -4.95
Notice the short red line...
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The NBA Contrarian Fund has a playoff pick with Denver...
Here are the playoff results so far...
1 Unit Record Date NBA Contrarian Fund Playoffs per bet 567 19-May SA +4 (-101) 0 579 21-May MEM +5 (-108) 0.93 501 23-May ATL +1.5 (-110) 0.91 543 26-May ATL +2 (-103) -1 872 29-May MIA +5 (-110) -1 578 MEM +5.5 (-110) -1 506 30-May BOS +8.5 (+100) -1 512 31-May WAS +9 (-108) 0.93 514 MEM +5.5 (-103) -1 574 6-Jun LAC -6.5 (-105) 0.95 Total -1.28
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