Can a poker strategy work in sports gaming

[danshan11]

I think he believes that his edge is being on a hot streak
until he truly figures out if he actually has an edge, his staking method will have zero impact on his long term success. He says in depth handicapping and that might be true but is that depth deep enough to overcome the margin. Some people win and they might be skilled and not know it. I got a friend like that he does really well, never models and is just barely under breaking even against the margin. I consider that talent because most lose the margin in general, so I would say my friend is skilled but reality is he is not skilled enough to beat the margin and he will eventually lose long term.

[danshan11]

keywords of people probably gonna long term struggle
Gut feeling, hot streak, trap, and more we all know the terms

[Festoon]

As an example, let's say you have picked 45% against the spread over 3000 games (seems like a reasonable assumption for you) . You now win 5 games in a row; in other words, you're hot. What percentage would you give yourself to pick a winner the next game?

Since I've completed my capping for the day and have my two selections...I have plenty of time to answer...Good question and not an easy one to answer... Like I said before, you have to have to have DISCIPLINE. The rush we all get when their is more MONEY on the line (large bets) is the thrill, just like any other drug, that's why this game is so addictive. Coming down after a loss is also the same as a drug, can be depressing and we can get deeper in the hole (like I DID back in the day). Saying that, that's where the discipline has to take over. Obviously I hate losing too, like everyone else don't get me wrong.
But you can do two things? You can continue the aggressive style and continue to make larger bets (chasing). Or...you can settle back, relax, regroup and start back at the original starting point of 1 unit a per play minimizing the COLD STREAKS and wait for the next HOT STREAK

[Festoon]

I think he believes that his edge is being on a hot streak
until he truly figures out if he actually has an edge, his staking method will have zero impact on his long term success. He says in depth handicapping and that might be true but is that depth deep enough to overcome the margin. Some people win and they might be skilled and not know it. I got a friend like that he does really well, never models and is just barely under breaking even against the margin. I consider that talent because most lose the margin in general, so I would say my friend is skilled but reality is he is not skilled enough to beat the margin and he will eventually lose long term.

Dan the proof will be when I bust and hopefully I don't and you can check all the numbers...until then be patient because this will be an interesting ride for me...if I do hit another hot streak and I'm confident that I will (hit multiple)... I will hear the same old...he's just LUCKY!
Again...I was not sure if I wanted to share this with people here...now that I am I'm EVEN MORE DETERMINED TO PROVE IT WORK'S.

[Festoon]

BTW...remember one thing, so I won't have to remind you...this entire CHIPSTACK that I have now is HOUSE MONEY...if it gives me the pleasure to pass the time until golf season arrives my GOAL has been achieved. I have my original BUY-IN back, maybe that's where we differ and that's why I have said... I'm in a position in my life that the money really isn't the issue for me. I have been blessed to have everything I need and have the money. The goal has nothing to do with $, it's the obsession in doing something I love and the entertainment I receive from doing it...not to mention it keeps my brain functioning.

[Festoon]

im also going with seton hall big--over seton hall and Marquette. time for a nap.

Hey Scott thanks for mentioning SH.. I did a brief caap on the game and it is solid. I have a separate account as well and will be firing a Unit on that particular play. I will be playing them to win outright as they are +1.5 on my book at the moment. Will not count as part of my record, thanks for the heads up Scot I appreciate it.

[Sam Odom]

...this entire CHIPSTACK that I have now is HOUSE MONEY...

You will never win long term!

[Festoon]

keywords of people probably gonna long term struggle
Gut feeling, hot streak, trap, and more we all know the terms

LOL...not to be argumentative or insulting in any way but your quote..."we all know the terms" is an understatement to say the least. There are plenty of intelligent people on this form, including you, that know their shit! But their are plenty more that have no idea what they are doing...FISH...I call them...that are here only to troll and throw insult's! waiting for THREADER's to lose.

[Festoon]

You will never win long term!

Maybe not Sam...but if your bright enough...you can have fun and be entertained enough at a minimal price...to me that's a WIN

[Sam Odom]

Have Fun

[Festoon]

Have Fun

You too Tony...RIP

[danshan11]

the thing is you seem sincerely interested in winning so if that is true why not try to talk about the only thing that matters and that is edge, do you truly have an edge? Only way to win in sports betting is with an edge and that is usually done in 2 ways
1 beat the line
2 be able to handicap something the entire betting community is missing
example Troy -8 VS Whitaker is the current line
(beat the line) if troy is -8 we need it to probably move to -9 to be an edge
(handicap something they missed) you know a Whitaker player is injured and will not play and only you know this
these are the 2 most likely scenarios for a long term winner.
a long term winner can identify where a line is off and they bet it -8 is wrong and they see this so they bet it and it closes at -9.5
a good capper sees that Troy will probably more than 55% of the time cover that -8 and they bet it and usually the line will still close at -9.5
this is usually how both bettor types know they made the right call. Now some will say if it wins, they picked it right and this can be true too if they can show 1000s of records where they were able to do this and stay at a winning rate.
staking is always controversial but moving from 100-300-700 back to 100-250-390 is semi martingaley at best and eventually will lead to the same results as i have said 200 times in this thread

[Festoon]

the thing is you seem sincerely interested in winning so if that is true why not try to talk about the only thing that matters and that is edge, do you truly have an edge? Only way to win in sports betting is with an edge and that is usually done in 2 ways
1 beat the line
2 be able to handicap something the entire betting community is missing
example Troy -8 VS Whitaker is the current line
(beat the line) if troy is -8 we need it to probably move to -9 to be an edge
(handicap something they missed) you know a Whitaker player is injured and will not play and only you know this
these are the 2 most likely scenarios for a long term winner.
a long term winner can identify where a line is off and they bet it -8 is wrong and they see this so they bet it and it closes at -9.5
a good capper sees that Troy will probably more than 55% of the time cover that -8 and they bet it and usually the line will still close at -9.5
this is usually how both bettor types know they made the right call. Now some will say if it wins, they picked it right and this can be true too if they can show 1000s of records where they were able to do this and stay at a winning rate.
staking is always controversial but moving from 100-300-700 back to 100-250-390 is semi martingaley at best and eventually will lead to the same results as i have said 200 times in this thread

You're definitely a smart guy Dan and truly know your shit! I can't argue with logic...believe me I know exactly where you are coming from, I've read and researched it all, an obsession...let's just see where this takes me...if I bust before March Madness begins, I'm just another wanna be capper. However, if this takes me past March Madness and that's my goal I win. It will make me even more motivated and determined to prove this works.

[WvGambler]

Festoon, is your goal only to not bust by March?? That changes a lot. We’re looking to profit here, not just tread water long enough to feel like we accomplished “staying alive.” This system is built to turn profit? Or is it built to just sustain a balance?

[sweep]

[sweethook]

count me in sir..

[Festoon]

Festoon, is your goal only to not bust by March?? That changes a lot. We’re looking to profit here, not just tread water long enough to feel like we accomplished “staying alive.” This system is built to turn profit? Or is it built to just sustain a balance?

I love the pic btw...makes me laugh every time I see it...I said end of March Madness...only because I most likely will be heading down to Scottsdale for some pre season golf before ours open...and won't have the time to capp all day. Without going into a long story, NCAAB will be over...Pro Sports is another animal all together and is so much harder to pick consistent winners. Having said that...I've tested this on Soccer as well...it was successful I bet on certain Leagues that are more offensive orientated...like Austrailia and Asian leagues for example...believe it or not I was very successful wagering on Woman's leagues where offense is paramount. And used 3-way betting as my style...giving up 0-2..0-3 goals to start.

[Festoon]

Exactly how I feel Sweep...thanks for the laugh

[Festoon]

the thing is you seem sincerely interested in winning so if that is true why not try to talk about the only thing that matters and that is edge, do you truly have an edge? Only way to win in sports betting is with an edge and that is usually done in 2 ways
1 beat the line
2 be able to handicap something the entire betting community is missing
example Troy -8 VS Whitaker is the current line
(beat the line) if troy is -8 we need it to probably move to -9 to be an edge
(handicap something they missed) you know a Whitaker player is injured and will not play and only you know this
these are the 2 most likely scenarios for a long term winner.
a long term winner can identify where a line is off and they bet it -8 is wrong and they see this so they bet it and it closes at -9.5
a good capper sees that Troy will probably more than 55% of the time cover that -8 and they bet it and usually the line will still close at -9.5
this is usually how both bettor types know they made the right call. Now some will say if it wins, they picked it right and this can be true too if they can show 1000s of records where they were able to do this and stay at a winning rate.
staking is always controversial but moving from 100-300-700 back to 100-250-390 is semi martingaley at best and eventually will lead to the same results as i have said 200 times in this thread

Sorry Dan, I don't have the power of having inside info. or anything like that, my checklist of capping, however does cover Twitter...where sometimes it comes in handy to move from a play or stay. As far as Martingale, It's very close, but not the same. I do not push 3-4-5-6- times in a row. I'm not always looking for the even money line that the Martindale theory is based on. Finally, I do not lose on the initial starting bet and double up the next one to recoup my previous loss.

[Festoon]

Akron's stats are a little over inflated playing weaker opponents. Check their home wins?...yes 8-1...who did they beat? Some okay teams but nothing of any significance... Anything can happen like last night...Baylor hitting 60% from the arc..when going in they were shooting 18%...even if they had shot 45% it was an easy cover. You never know in this game...that's why nothing is a LOCK. But in this particular play tonight I'm confident with my starting hand...say pp K's...lol

[kingdom]

Sorry, but that is not why I kept changing the thread and I am definitely not that guy. Would take to long to explain why I started new threads . You're right though it's not easy to hit 4-5-6 in a row...not gonna get into how many times I do it... I'd be bragging and guy's on this forum hate hearing that...but I give myself every advantage I can, to do it...when I hit 4 straight (HOT STREAK)...the strategy changes...rather than making my play's at even odd's or close to it...I start looking at the best ML value I can get to keep the streak alive. As far as capping goes? that's another long story, so I won't bore you to death. However, my strategy and what I think are the two most important factors that help me be successful. Number one... I start the night before and take screen shots of OPENING LINES and pay attention to movement and compare during the day... Number two is team's ATS record's and not W-L's...who care's if a team has a shit record...some are brutal...but if their ATS record is .500 or better that help's me dig a little deeper. Then I go from there and CAPP EVERYTHING I CAN...lastly I actually read the team's TWITTER accounts for possible inside information. I've tried every possible angle and strategy possible and have had only mediocre success. I brought Poker into this for one reason, because it relates to how I play the game and it makes it more FUN. I've been working on this for almost five years and along the way have added different strategies to make me more successful and a better capper. When I start a streak and win two straight, I pull back the ANTE and play like it's HOUSE MONEY. Probably doesn't make sense to you... but it does to me. I've got my ANTE back …. and play it as a FREE ROUND being as aggressive as I can, then cash out if I hit the magic number of six...when each round or streak ends...I start all over again.
This theory works for me...yes I lose my share of games it's not easy et.al. Hofstra-Samford, but being retired, I have all day to read and sift through various data...plus it help's the old brain work... remember its a marathon not a RACE.

cool. i like the ats also as a key. but combined with su and o/u as well. i like a good ats team that can score and hits overs as well, as a dog. usually competitive teams overall. personally i would stop at 3 straight wins if using your strategy as the odds get much worse after that. nothing much more appealing to a gambler than capping games and strategizing. i don't want to be greedy. i just want to win consistently and think of it much more like a stock than poker. gl. you can be a good poster if you're not always fighting with guys over another guy lol.

[Festoon]

Festoon, is your goal only to not bust by March?? That changes a lot. We’re looking to profit here, not just tread water long enough to feel like we accomplished “staying alive.” This system is built to turn profit? Or is it built to just sustain a balance?

Gambler good question...Being superstitious it's my only fear that I'm jinxing myself...some may not agree, but I've been that guy for as long as I can remember...not in excuse if I lose. I play Golf at an expensive private club close to where I live and it's been awhile since I've had to use my own money to pay a monthly bill. Between this account and two other's it's been very profitable for me. I know we all say it...shit! why didn't I take that team? hardest part is when it's down to 2-3 plays is picking the right one. GOOD LUCK

[Festoon]

FYI..Next up, ANTE size to be determined of out come of this game.

NEVADA WOLFPACK -7.5 -118

[Festoon]

Buzzer beater to win and it rattled out...take the win...going to even out my CHIP STACK back to original start.
NOTE: Line change on 888 (-109)

NEVADA WOLFPACK -7.5 -109 BET $125.75 RETURN $241.44 (1.5 ANTE)

UPDATE LATER

[Festoon]

Update in the morning, this man needs a good sleep!

[scot4]

o sorry. seton hall was a turnover machine. thanks for the heads up on looking at e michigan.

[scot4]

didnt watch the nevada game but the game before their pace of play is obscene. weird team but one if the total is low i would go over without blinking. maybe they change their ways.

[Festoon]

didnt watch the nevada game but the game before their pace of play is obscene. weird team but one if the total is low i would go over without blinking. maybe they change their ways.

Good morning Scot...no worries with the SH game pal...but I'm glad you mentioned Nevada's pace...I have a legit question for any viewer's that may read this. Are there any Boise fans, that could answer a question for me?...I've mentioned before that after a loss I like to sift through the box score to see if I missed something (for future reference). The box score doesn't give me the answers in this game...yes Boise had 7 more points from the charity stripe....but's there is more to it. Rebounds were a surprise...but there's more... Nevada had 2 more FG's (51%), 4 more 3's...I have seen Nevada play, their quick, great athletes and should have over whelmed Boise. Question? When I watch games, if I can't watch it live, I'm watching live stats. I did notice something. The Wolfpack didn't play their run and gun fast pace offense...saying that...they have a good bench, 2nd team is solid...But they were rotating their 1st and 2nd unit's every 2-3-4 minutes during the game and just didn't play their typical style. So was it the altitude in Utah that slowed them down? did I give up too many points here?...I did like them to win for sure...they did...but just eked it out! That would have been the type of game that if I were on a STREAK...I would have had them on ML to keep my streak alive. So, if your interested in this thread, be assured I do my homework.
Had to get that out, so any fans of Boise, is that typical of opposing teams playing in your barn? Does the altitude slow down fast pace teams... I don't want to make that mistake again! Back to the capping...my favorite part of the day.

[Festoon]

Since I don't want to be wasting my time...if there are any READERS...would you prefer just the pick...or a write up on the two teams and why Im making a selection...serious question? I don't expect player's to use my selections...but I like breaking down games...so a simple YES...or just go to the next thread. Thank you

[Regul8er]

Sure, why the heck not Toon Man!

[Festoon]

That was for you Rudy! it was up long enough...was edited for reasons I will not explain to you, your not worth the time....I will however, mention that this will be the last post I edit
This post may not be up for long...as one poster asked me "why do I edit all the time" well I don't want to give away all my secrets. For those that have read it GOOD LUCK thanks for taking the time to read and I hope you win tonight!

[juicername]

Tampoon, hot streaks only exist in retrospect. They say absolutely nothing about the future, particularly in sports betting.

In poker you can get "in the zone" and start outplaying opponents even without good cards (making them fold winners or induce calls from worse hands), but you simply can't do it in sports betting.

And if you're playing any two in poker because you've won a couple of hands in a row and think you're hot you're simply just burning EV, no matter if you happen to win those particular hands or not.

[Festoon]

Quick update of my record and all the numbers:

START DATE DEC 28th thru JANUARY 15th (21 days): 34 PLAYS

RECORD: 18W-15L-2P

ORIGINAL CHIP STACK: $1000...CURRENT CHIPSTACK: $1815 with one WITHDRAWAL of $1000 (MY BUY-IN)

CHIPS RISKED: $6021.57

ANTE SIZE: $75

UNITS GAINED: +24

I know for most that's just BS luck! Am I missing something here? to go only 3 games over .500 and be up +24 units what would your record need to be? Answer 29-5 (based on a 1 unit play)
This was accomplished by taking advantage of 1 HOT STREAK in 34 plays and minimizing any damage when I ran cold. At this point... I'm playing HOUSE MONEY
There are many factors that come into play...
I'm not saying anyone should follow this style, unless your in the position to try it.
**patience and discipline are the key**

[TheMoneyShot]

Pontoon... what's your IQ level pal?

[danshan11]

time brother time, breakdown your wins and losses by bet size
100 10-10, 200 3-1, 500 1-0 or whatever and you will get a clearer picture