Can a poker strategy work in sports gaming

[The Shooter]

Certainly can't say its not getting frustrating, trying different things to get over that hump. Stand by the pick...unfortunately, Bryant who ranks #210 in 3pt% at 22%...and then go on a tear today shooting 45% 10-22 for the game... including 78% in the 2nd half going 7-9...must have felt like they were shooting at a hoola hoop. Move on and keep grinding, it will come.

**Gonna change up the unit size in an attempt to get er going**.

That’s the thing though Festy. It’s sports. Just becusss a team is ranked 210 in the nation in three’s doesn’t mean that they can’t have a night where they go 10/22 from beyond the arc. That is why most and almost all guys on here can’t produce winning records. The intangibles or things you can’t control know matter how much homework you have done, doesn’t matter once tip off happens. Your picks are backed with the right amount of homework like you say , but the thing is 7/10 THAT HOMEWORK and the things that seem right just don’t happen. And that’s why 90% of gamblers lose. You just can’t control one game and what happens on the floor no matter what info you have, and it’s just a small piece of the info the line makers use, why do you think it’s so hard for guys to pick over 60% even ? Because what looks good on paper and what seems to make sense, just doesn’t play out that way on the court / field / ice. That’s just a fact.

[The Shooter]

what kind of backtested data do you have on your confidence? Books love to play against confident guys, they tend to bet more and their faith lasts longer. you know I looked at some book data and they usually make more total dollars at the end on a person who starts out winning than they do on a guy who just hits at par

Having confidence has a lot to do with success in gambling, but at the same time you have to have some luck. Some Cappers have it and some just don’t. But the homework and the stats that Festy uses and brings up make sense. But the thing most guys just don’t ever understand is that once a game starts all those stats go out the window. Because a team has the worst ranked defense in the road in the nation doesn’t mean in one game they can’t have the best. That goes for all sports. You can figure out the numbers, and decide who looks better on paper so to speak. But an average stat based over 45 games is exactly that, an average. Can’t expect those numbers to hold up in every game scenario. There’s just way too many intangibles that go Into a game that any Capper can’t control. None of us have the info or the mathematical equations that the line makers have. We’d be idiots to think we can out smart them. It will never happen. Guys like me win a lot more then I lose, but sometimes it’s disecting a game, the team that seems like the obvious play, sometimes your better off going the other way. It’s aganst the grain, but THE SHOOTER seems to almost always come out on top ôver the long haul. Just my thoughts

[Festoon]

Having confidence has a lot to do with success in gambling, but at the same time you have to have some luck. Some Cappers have it and some just don’t. But the homework and the stats that Festy uses and brings up make sense. But the thing most guys just don’t ever understand is that once a game starts all those stats go out the window. Because a team has the worst ranked defense in the road in the nation doesn’t mean in one game they can’t have the best. That goes for all sports. You can figure out the numbers, and decide who looks better on paper so to speak. But an average stat based over 45 games is exactly that, an average. Can’t expect those numbers to hold up in every game scenario. There’s just way too many intangibles that go Into a game that any Capper can’t control. None of us have the info or the mathematical equations that the line makers have. We’d be idiots to think we can out smart them. It will never happen. Guys like me win a lot more then I lose, but sometimes it’s disecting a game, the team that seems like the obvious play, sometimes your better off going the other way. It’s aganst the grain, but THE SHOOTER seems to almost always come out on top ôver the long haul. Just my thoughts

Good morning Shooter, I'm a logical guy and I can't argue with many of your points. I've been around for a long time. No matter how hard you try to beat this game...there are always the different intangibles that you are speaking of and I can't disagree. Having said that, sure it's frustrating no question...but we ALL go through losing streaks...I just keep telling myself..."remember its a marathon not a race". No excuses, it just makes me more determined to snap out this cold run. Yes... I have made many mistakes... too many plays? thinking too much? to name a few. I also know, that it is just likely to get on a HOT STREAK and hopefully, I will take advantage of it when it comes. I have proven to myself that it works. Since I've been tracking my plays for almost five years, especially College Hoops and Soccer, it's time to go back to the drawing board and try to add a few wrinkles, in an attempt to change the LUCK. BTW...thanks again. I have tailed many of your Hockey picks and I will continue to do so...Lastly, and just a word of advise from a long time player and new on-line friend...You may want to try being just a little more humble... like I said, we all go through tough times, no matter how good we think we are.

GOOD LUCK

[danshan11]

Having confidence has a lot to do with success in gambling, but at the same time you have to have some luck. Some Cappers have it and some just don’t. But the homework and the stats that Festy uses and brings up make sense. But the thing most guys just don’t ever understand is that once a game starts all those stats go out the window. Because a team has the worst ranked defense in the road in the nation doesn’t mean in one game they can’t have the best. That goes for all sports. You can figure out the numbers, and decide who looks better on paper so to speak. But an average stat based over 45 games is exactly that, an average. Can’t expect those numbers to hold up in every game scenario. There’s just way too many intangibles that go Into a game that any Capper can’t control. None of us have the info or the mathematical equations that the line makers have. We’d be idiots to think we can out smart them. It will never happen. Guys like me win a lot more then I lose, but sometimes it’s disecting a game, the team that seems like the obvious play, sometimes your better off going the other way. It’s aganst the grain, but THE SHOOTER seems to almost always come out on top ôver the long haul. Just my thoughts

the problem for me with confidence is quantifying it. now for luck, man luck is the king of sportsbetting it just is without doubt. you can have the best model in the world and in the short term just get crushed by luck. We refer to luck as variance and usually stay on course when it goes against us but at some point a good numbers guy needs to look at if it is luck or bad modeling.

OP is a nice guy and I think there are basically two type winners

winner 1 beats the line and wins by beating the line over a huge sample size
symptoms of this guy: beats the line on over 75% of games, is able to tell you what the line will be way ahead of the line coming out

winner 2 has a way of finding some information or a way to combine info that is not in the line to make a decision that creates a winners at a higher rate than the vig overall long term.
does anyone know the symptoms of these guys?


people say stuff like
has more steals than the other team. this is surely important but is it a deciding factor and if so does the team with more steals cover at a rate higher than the vig
team has won 20 games in a row. teams that have won 20 games in a row are 50/50 ATS in their next game
best defense in the business, teams with the best defense are 50-50 ATS in their next game
you cant stop them their offense is unstoppable and again these teams are 50-50 ATS in their next game
over last 5 games they have been over 4-1 and in the next game they are 50-50 over under

all these things are just cool stats

[Festoon]

the problem for me with confidence is quantifying it. now for luck, man luck is the king of sportsbetting it just is without doubt. you can have the best model in the world and in the short term just get crushed by luck. We refer to luck as variance and usually stay on course when it goes against us but at some point a good numbers guy needs to look at if it is luck or bad modeling.



OP is a nice guy and I think there are basically two type winners

winner 1 beats the line and wins by beating the line over a huge sample size
symptoms of this guy: beats the line on over 75% of games, is able to tell you what the line will be way ahead of the line coming out

winner 2 has a way of finding some information or a way to combine info that is not in the line to make a decision that creates a winners at a higher rate than the vig overall long term.
does anyone know the symptoms of these guys?


people say stuff like
has more steals than the other team. this is surely important but is it a deciding factor and if so does the team with more steals cover at a rate higher than the vig
team has won 20 games in a row. teams that have won 20 games in a row are 50/50 ATS in their next game
best defense in the business, teams with the best defense are 50-50 ATS in their next game
you cant stop them their offense is unstoppable and again these teams are 50-50 ATS in their next game
over last 5 games they have been over 4-1 and in the next game they are 50-50 over under

all these things are just cool stats

True enough...agree with everything you said...but stats are only part of the equation in picking consistent winners...I'm not very proud of my record obviously...but the ship can be turned around just as quick as when it loses its radar. I'm the king of jinx...lol...I'm sure a lot of us feel that way. But, without divulging the information that I can find on a particular play...it kind of leaves you in the dark of why I have the confidence in a particular play. Since you use the word EDGE and I use the word CONFIDENCE. I will give this information out and why I came to the conclusion on this particular play...without all the boring and cool stats that everyone can find...In my next post.
Hint? it's a game that I missed earlier. Again...not that it is a LOCK... but why I have the confidence in this play

[Festoon]

This could be the game of the night, if you like defense...pitting the top two defenses in the Big 12 whom both rank in the Top 4 of many defensive categories. As someone who has not only followed.. but has played competitive sports at its highest level. I know how hard it is to sweep a home and away series in a calendar year, especially between two evenly matched teams. The Home team in this matchup has been money at home since Coach Weber took over 7 seasons ago. Not only does his team have a winning % of .809 at home, it includes 5W-1L vs TT. This match up pits two teams going in the opposite directions.I mentioned earlier in this thread that Kansas State had it's entire starting 5, returning from last years squad who made it to the ELITE 8. I asked myself "why has it taken so long for them to play to their potential". Answer is pretty simple, if you do the work. You could argue if this player is more important to the team than their stud Barry Brown Jr. But, since his return from injury, they are on a four game win streak! knocking off quality opponents like Iowa St, TCU, Oke and WV both on the road.
The player is pre-season All American senior forward DEAN WARD...the entire team plays significantly better when he is in the line up. He missed the first meeting between the two in Lubbock. The kicker for me...he saves his best games vs Texas Tech averaging 12.5ppg.
Having said that I've locked in KANSAS STATE at -1.5 at -107 which to me is great value and a highly confident pick.

GOOD LUCK

[danshan11]

KS state 84
TT 88
add 3 to KS state and you have 87
so 87 vs 88 gives you roughly a push as the line opened
you see here how all those things you said come out to even ATS
now reality is if these power rankings are correct and there is not an injury or suspension for TT, that the value actually lies in TT at +1.5

now possibly Wade returning can have K state Power rankings a hair behind and lets assume he is worth 2 points to this game that would put
Kstate at 89 and texas ech at 87 so that would make K state a -2 favorite
so maybe that is why it opened at 0 and is now at -2 for the adjustment of Wade

[Festoon]

KS state 84
TT 88
add 3 to KS state and you have 87
so 87 vs 88 gives you roughly a push as the line opened
you see here how all those things you said come out to even ATS
now reality is if these power rankings are correct and there is not an injury or suspension for TT, that the value actually lies in TT at +1.5

now possibly Wade returning can have K state Power rankings a hair behind and lets assume he is worth 2 points to this game that would put
Kstate at 89 and texas ech at 87 so that would make K state a -2 favorite
so maybe that is why it opened at 0 and is now at -2 for the adjustment of Wade

LOL...your a tough egg to crack...I just think taking into account all the variables that I listed...I would add another 1.5 possibly 2...in KS's favor. Sure shit happens...but your average Capper is looking into mostly stats.. I want to paint a picture of the game as best I can and the possible outcome. I like the way it's leaning in the right direction as KS starts to make a push to a higher ranking. I'm totally confident! even if it goes TT's way I won't be second guessing myself

[Festoon]

Just to be clear...the King of Jinx...will no longer post interesting facts of future games moving forward...only the play, bets, records and balances... Just way to superstitious of a person and I will leave it at that.

[danshan11]

Just to be clear...the King of Jinx...will no longer post interesting facts of future games moving forward...only the play, bets, records and balances... Just way to superstitious of a person and I will leave it at that.

come on Fest you cannot take betting serious and be depending on a rabbits foot! LMAO

[Festoon]

come on Fest you cannot take betting serious and be depending on a rabbits foot! LMAO

LOL...100%!.. I wish I wasn't...as long as I can remember...as a Hockey and Baseball Player it drove my team mates crazy with all the strange quirky superstitions. Was no different with my own kids...would love to sit down with ya one day and tell you a few stories over a few cocktails...they're actually quite funny and I have quite a few. GOOD LUCK tonight...I have another play as well as KS, see if I can't get rolling

[Festoon]

PLAY #1: BET #2...

Continuing on from the win with Radford yesterday:

#2) KANSAS STATE WILDCATS -1.5 -107...Bet $94.50 return $185.25 (2-units)

[Festoon]

Gonna try a different approach with the next play:

#1) BUFFALO BULLS -335 ML & BOISE STATE BRONCOS -195 ML

**2-TEAM ML PARLAY -103 Bet $50 return $98.80 (1-unit)**

[Festoon]

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 22nd (27days): 53 PLAYS

RECORD 24W-26L-3P

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000...CURRENT ACCOUNT: $964.50 ***WITHDRAW 1- $1000***

ANTE $75: (+15.5 units)

ANTE $50: (-3 units)

TOTAL WAGERED ON 53 PLAYS $7600.18

[danshan11]

LOL...100%!.. I wish I wasn't...as long as I can remember...as a Hockey and Baseball Player it drove my team mates crazy with all the strange quirky superstitions. Was no different with my own kids...would love to sit down with ya one day and tell you a few stories over a few cocktails...they're actually quite funny and I have quite a few. GOOD LUCK tonight...I have another play as well as KS, see if I can't get rolling

thanks for the advice, I am going to buy a rabbits foot before tip off tonight, JK LOL

[Festoon]

thanks for the advice, I am going to buy a rabbits foot before tip off tonight, JK LOL

I have something like that...majority of Poker Players have some lucky item close to their chip stack...it's not only , me...lol

[Festoon]

PLAY #1: BET #3...

Continuing on from yesterday: **pull-out 1-unit**

3) LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS -4.5 -115...Bet $135.25 return $252.92 (2.5 units)

[Festoon]

PLAY #2: BET #1...

LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS ML -210 & STONY BROOK SEAWOLVES ML -235...+112

Bet $50 return $105.82 (1 unit)

[Festoon]

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 23rd (28days): 55 PLAYS

[Festoon]

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 23rd (28days): 55 PLAYS

RECORD 26W-26L-3P

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000...CURRENT ACCOUNT: $2323.24 ...TOTAL WINNINGS: $1323.24...***DEPOSIT: 1- $1000***

ANTE $75: (+15.5 units)

ANTE $50: (+.5 units)

TOTAL WAGERED ON 55PLAYS $7785.43

[The Shooter]

PLAY #2: BET #1...

LEHIGH MOUNTAIN HAWKS ML -210 & STONY BROOK SEAWOLVES ML -235...+112

Bet $50 return $105.82 (1 unit)

Atta boy Uncle Fester !!!! The big fella sticks to the game plan and gets himself a couple a DUBS!!! 2-0 for Festy, 3-1 for THE SHOOTER !! Keep making it rain with those college picks and jacking up that balance pal! Nicely done. Congrats on a couple big ones buddy!

CHEERS!!!!!!! Remember win or lose we hit the booze !

All confidence no fear and a plate full of nose BEERS!!!


Let the good times roll ! And watch Bukkake Boy Troll!

Hahahah nice night !!

[Festoon]

PLAY #2: BET #2...

UIPUI JAGUARS ML -177 & HAMPTON PIRATES ML -455...-109

Bet $75 return $143.66 (1.5 units)

[Festoon]

PLAY #1: BET #4:

4) NORTHEASTERN -9 -118...Bet $202.92 return $375.40 (4 unit's)

**pulled out 1 unit $50 from Bet #3**

[The Shooter]

PLAY #1: BET #4:

4) NORTHEASTERN -9 -118...Bet $202.92 return $375.40 (4 unit's)

**pulled out 1 unit $50 from Bet #3**

No need to PULL OUT anything Festy. There’s no need for it. I always leave it in. ALL IN

[Festoon]

No need to PULL OUT anything Festy. There’s no need for it. I always leave it in. ALL IN

LOL...you always do? If you were betting the kind of dough you do...and pushed 4 times in a row you'd be up a ton, with that record

[Festoon]

PLAY #2: BET #3

SAN DIEGO TORREOS ML -250 & COLORADO BUFFALOES ML -250...-105

Bet $143.66 return $281.57 (3 unit's)

[The Shooter]

LOL...you always do? If you were betting the kind of dough you do...and pushed 4 times in a row you'd be up a ton, with that record

I was hinting a sexual induendo ! Lol. “PULL OUT”...get it Fester ?

[Festoon]

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 24th (29days): 59 PLAYS

RECORD 28W-28L-3P

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000...CURRENT ACCOUNT: $2276.89…
TOTAL WINNINGS: $1276.89...***DEPOSIT:..1- $1000***

ANTE $75: (+15.5 units)

ANTE $50: (E units)

TOTAL WAGERED ON 58 PLAYS $8257.01

[Festoon]

Will continue on with PLAY #2 tomorrow...a small 1 unit play and the start of PLAY #3- BET #1

BUFFALO BULLS ML -400 & INDIANA HOOSIERS +5.5 -124...+126

Bet $50 return $113.13 (1 unit)

[Festoon]

PLAY #2: BET #4

GEORGIA STATE ML -455 & KANSAS STATE ML -215...-127

Bet #231.57 return $415.30 (4.5 unit's)

[The Shooter]

Good Luck & Positive Vibes!

Keep it rolling FESTER!! Good luck with your open plays, I’ll be routing for ya! Hey, I may even sneak a little tail action in there too....not really the TAIL O UNCLE SHOOTER is used to, but hey maybe I’ll give it a shot !

keep on the grind, sounds like you may be on to something here with your recent research. Not too many guys are dissecting games to the extent that you are. Good luck and keep er goin !!

THE SHOOTER IS IN YOUR CORNER!!

[Festoon]

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 26th (31 days): 61 PLAYS

RECORD 28W-28L-3P

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000...CURRENT ACCOUNT: $1961.32…

TOTAL WINNINGS: $961.32...***DEPOSIT:..1- $1000***

ANTE$75: (+15.5 units)

ANTE
$50: (E units)

TOTAL WAGERED ON 61 PLAYS $8563.58

**Including todays 2 plays**

[Festoon]

PLAY #1: BET #1

EASTERN MICHIGAN EAGLES ML -115 & THE CITADEL BULLDOGS ML -385...+136

Bet $75- return $176.72 (1.5 units)

[Festoon]

PLAY #1: BET #2

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS/ARKANSAS RAZOR-BACKS U-137 -117

Bet $138.04 return $256.75 (2.5 unit's)

[Festoon]

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 26th (31 days): 61 PLAYS

RECORD 29W-28L-3P

ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000...CURRENT ACCOUNT: $1276.75…TOTAL WINNINGS: $1256.75...***DEPOSIT:..1- $1000***
ANTE: $75: (+15.5 units)
ANTE: $50: (E units)
TOTAL WAGERED ON 61 PLAYS $8701.62