Can a poker strategy work in sports gaming

[Festoon]

Bet 1) NEVADA WOLFPACK... -22... -113... Bet $75 Return-$141

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 19th (25 days): 43 PLAYS

RECORD: 19W-21L-3P

ORIGINAL CHIP STACK: $1000...CURRENT CHIPSTACK: $1298.25 with one WITHDRAWAL of $1000
(Original Account) CHIPS RISKED: $6943.57

ANTE SIZE: $75

UNITS GAINED: +17.5

[The Shooter]

Bet 1) NEVADA WOLFPACK... -22... -113... Bet $75 Return-$141

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 19th (25 days): 43 PLAYS

RECORD: 19W-21L-3P

ORIGINAL CHIP STACK: $1000...CURRENT CHIPSTACK: $1298.25 with one WITHDRAWAL of $1000
(Original Account) CHIPS RISKED: $6943.57

ANTE SIZE: $75

UNITS GAINED: +17.5

That was shitty, some real bad luck, Probally the best game AF has played all year. Wolf Paxk made a late push for the back door cover. Just some bad luck that those army geeks came to play for once. Still liked the play regardless of the outcome. Everything pointed to a nevada blow out there. Keep your head up Festy and keep grinding ! You’ll get hot real soon

[Festoon]

Need a break today...have some fun sit back, few beers and just watch the football games today. But will still use it as my 1st bet in the next round and see if I can change things up, with a 2- TEAM TEASE.

LOS ANGELES RAMS/NEW ORLEAN SAINTS 048.5-240
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +8.5 -230

Bet $75 return $153.36...

GOOD LUCK ALL

FESTOON

[Festoon]

No worries, I've found that when your running cold, something always happens when you look for some reasoning why? Reading afterwards, I read... Coach Musselman... it was the lowest 1st half point total...20... since he took over the helm at Nevada. Yes in the 2nd half they almost got there, but it was to much to over come the 26.5 deficit I needed to cash.

Good Luck today.

[Festoon]

What a Sunday! Those were perhaps the most exciting back to back Football games I've ever watched. Was nice to take a little break and get the mind clear. Cashed the 2 -teamer yesterday and will continue with the next play today...posting my up to date record and balances... FOR MY REFERENCE.



START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 21st (26days): 45 PLAYS

RECORD: 21W-22L-3P

ORIGINAL CHIP STACK: $1000...CURRENT CHIPSTACK: $1376.61 with one WITHDRAWAL of $1000 (Original Account)

CHIPS RISKED: $7093.57

ANTE SIZE: $75

UNITS GAINED: +18

[danshan11]

so it seems obvious you cant pick winners at a high rate, you cannot beat the closing line consistently, so I guess what you are promoting is a staking method, right?

[Jayvegas420]

Tha fukk you talking bout Dan?

[Festoon]

so it seems obvious you cant pick winners at a high rate, you cannot beat the closing line consistently, so I guess what you are promoting is a staking method, right?

Not into debating anymore...yes you are correct... I haven't picked winners at a high rate YET! But...something in the style of betting has worked and I have come away with a nice profit considering the winning rate. It's obvious the members can't accept the Poker Strategy which I was only using to describe my philosophy of wagering (aggressive style). My hope is to continue the same capping approach with a few variations and additions, in hopes of increasing the winning rate...which in return, I should net an even higher profit...time will tell. I am going to stop the poker nonsense and carry on in a way that members may understand and accept.

GOOD LUCK

[danshan11]

Tha fukk you talking bout Dan?

guy is at 50% ATS and his closing line value is not a motivation by the few games I checked. his only reason for his short term bankroll success was the staking method ( semi martingaleish), so I was questioning if he is here to promote the staking method because that is the only thing that has had any success in this tiny sample.

[danshan11]

Not into debating anymore...yes you are correct... I haven't picked winners at a high rate YET! But...something in the style of betting has worked and I have come away with a nice profit considering the winning rate. It's obvious the members can't accept the Poker Strategy which I was only using to describe my philosophy of wagering (aggressive style). My hope is to continue the same capping approach with a few variations and additions, in hopes of increasing the winning rate...which in return, I should net an even higher profit...time will tell. I am going to stop the poker nonsense and carry on in a way that members may understand and accept.

GOOD LUCK

what do you mean something has worked, can you clarify? the only thing that worked is in the short term you got lucky and a few of your high dollar picks did better than your low dollar picks. if you did the same thing over 1000s of games it would even out and you would lose the juice. you have not proven you can pick winners and you have zero line value, the only hope is the staking method, which I dont see as an advantage as much as I see it as just the luck of the draw!

[Festoon]

what do you mean something has worked, can you clarify? the only thing that worked is in the short term you got lucky and a few of your high dollar picks did better than your low dollar picks. if you did the same thing over 1000s of games it would even out and you would lose the juice. you have not proven you can pick winners and you have zero line value, the only hope is the staking method, which I dont see as an advantage as much as I see it as just the luck of the draw!

Before I get into that, I've mentioned before... I've been working on this for quite some time...always changing in attempt to get better...it's been working for me and that is as far as I will go right now...yes Its a small sample...agreed...semi Martingalish...to certain extent yes...but quite different, my own style. Having said that, I will continue on and lets see what happens.
Small play today (.5 unit) at 2pm for some fun before I continue with my second bet.

[Festoon]

FAIRLEIGH DICKENSON KNIGHTS -7.5 -112 Bet $37.50 return $71.25 (.5 unit)

GOOD LUCK ALL

FESTOON

[mdunlap3]

Logic? Yes?

[Festoon]

so it seems obvious you cant pick winners at a high rate, you cannot beat the closing line consistently, so I guess what you are promoting is a staking method, right?

Just noticed the word you used PROMOTING...I'm not promoting anything here and not asking anyone to play this way. I've said that many times.

[danshan11]

sorry did not actually mean promoting, i meant more your "thing" your reason for why you do what you do not as in an actual promotion

[danshan11]

honestly I was gonna ask why you are here posting but I do the same thing. I am obviously not really open to learning anything. I guess it is just to keep my interest up. I was hoping to learn stuff but really have not gotten much. I say I want to learn and really do but I am either too stubborn or just dont get it I guess. Anyway I am just trying to show you
that fairleigh pick has zero value win or lose and its like most picks you make
so no line value and no killer win rate, I dont really see what you call your edge. You seem to imply its like a secret magic feeling that tells you when you go hard but my argument against that is eventually all bets with no edge find their way back to paying the juice. With that said I do not know shit about secret sauce or magic so for me to tell you it is not real, would probably not be a qualified assessment.

[Festoon]

honestly I was gonna ask why you are here posting but I do the same thing. I am obviously not really open to learning anything. I guess it is just to keep my interest up. I was hoping to learn stuff but really have not gotten much. I say I want to learn and really do but I am either too stubborn or just dont get it I guess. Anyway I am just trying to show you
that fairleigh pick has zero value win or lose and its like most picks you make
so no line value and no killer win rate, I dont really see what you call your edge. You seem to imply its like a secret magic feeling that tells you when you go hard but my argument against that is eventually all bets with no edge find their way back to paying the juice. With that said I do not know shit about secret sauce or magic so for me to tell you it is not real, would probably not be a qualified assessment.

But a little homework on the 2 teams and you find some interesting stuff? 2 things caught my eye in this one...can you name 1?

[Festoon]

honestly I was gonna ask why you are here posting but I do the same thing. I am obviously not really open to learning anything. I guess it is just to keep my interest up. I was hoping to learn stuff but really have not gotten much. I say I want to learn and really do but I am either too stubborn or just dont get it I guess. Anyway I am just trying to show you
that fairleigh pick has zero value win or lose and its like most picks you make
so no line value and no killer win rate, I dont really see what you call your edge. You seem to imply its like a secret magic feeling that tells you when you go hard but my argument against that is eventually all bets with no edge find their way back to paying the juice. With that said I do not know shit about secret sauce or magic so for me to tell you it is not real, would probably not be a qualified assessment.

Actually several things to be honest...but2 that stood out...I will wait a few minutes

[danshan11]

fairleigh 65.5
St Marys 60.5
home court is probably close to 2.5 to 3
so that would give fairleigh roughly a 7.5 pt edge and it sounds like that is close to what the line is and 7.5 is a coin toss and that is why -7-5. is -110 at close and subtract the juice and that is a coin toss

[Festoon]

And sorry I'm not trying to be a smart ass...you said a few days ago everyone knows that stuff? I was willing to post interesting facts, of why I make a play. No interest...so I stopped doing if bc everyone knows.
#1) did everyone know that MSM's was starting 5 underclassmen today?,,,2 soph and 3 fresh(a yr older than high school
#2) FD is #18 in the nation in steals...good to know...end of the game FD had 9 more steals...which led to 12 pts and an easy cover..for a change, it went according to Hoyle

**not sure about you, but to me FD had a lot of value in this game**

[Festoon]

fairleigh 65.5
St Marys 60.5
home court is probably close to 2.5 to 3
so that would give fairleigh roughly a 7.5 pt edge and it sounds like that is close to what the line is and 7.5 is a coin toss and that is why -7-5. is -110 at close and subtract the juice and that is a coin toss

Those numbers are way too easy to find...but there is a lot more you can find out if you dig deeper. Plus I figure home court is no biggie today being MLK day...a lot of the local students are still home

[danshan11]

you mention the starting lineup as a factor you use, did the rest of the betting community have access to that roster or just you? FD is #18 in steals that is worth how many points towards the line?

the lakers beat the warriors by 27 pts earlier this year, does that mean the lakers are 27 pts better than the warriors, of course not and the result of one game is not indicative of skill

[danshan11]

And sorry I'm not trying to be a smart ass...you said a few days ago everyone knows that stuff? I was willing to post interesting facts, of why I make a play. No interest...so I stopped doing if bc everyone knows.
#1) did everyone know that MSM's was starting 5 underclassmen today?,,,2 soph and 3 fresh(a yr older than high school
#2) FD is #18 in the nation in steals...good to know...end of the game FD had 9 more steals...which led to 12 pts and an easy cover..for a change, it went according to Hoyle

**not sure about you, but to me FD had a lot of value in this game**

if you say FD has a ton of value
Sagarin is way off
closing line was way off
all the books when they opened at 7 modeled it way off
come on brother for real!

[Festoon]

you mention the starting lineup as a factor you use, did the rest of the betting community have access to that roster or just you? FD is #18 in steals that is worth how many points towards the line?

Maybe FD's stealing % doesn't equate to much vs veteran teams...but up against basically high schoolers, I thought it would make a big difference. That's all
the lakers beat the warriors by 27 pts earlier this year, does that mean the lakers are 27 pts better than the warriors, of course not and the result of one game is not indicative of skill

Maybe FD's stealing % doesn't equate to much vs veteran teams...but up against basically high schoolers, I thought it would make a big difference (a bit of an edge I guess you could say). That's all

[danshan11]

but if lets say that information about steals is valuable and does mean something IF that is so, dont you think that is in the line already?

[Festoon]

if you say FD has a ton of value
Sagarin is way off
closing line was way off
all the books when they opened at 7 modeled it way off
come on brother for real!

My point is and I have said it before...my plays are based on the confidence I have in them. Knowing all the numbers only gets you mediocre results...I'm looking for everything I can...and I will add new things that I can find all the time, if it can make even %'s better

[danshan11]

i think it happens to lots of people including me. We see something about a matchup and we say man that guy is really good on hitting fly balls or he can strike out anyone or he has not missed a free throw in 10 years or whatever random thing we pick on to guide us towards a pick and that is not how it works. if that information is actually valuable and semi readily available to the betting public, you better believe it is in the line

[danshan11]

what kind of backtested data do you have on your confidence? Books love to play against confident guys, they tend to bet more and their faith lasts longer. you know I looked at some book data and they usually make more total dollars at the end on a person who starts out winning than they do on a guy who just hits at par

[Festoon]

A couple plays here on the same game: My first is the continuation from the teaser and second continue from the last game.

ST.FRANCIS PENNSYLVANIA RED FLASH- ML -152 Bet $153.36 return $254.58 (2 unit's)
ST.FRANCIS PENNSYLVANIA RED FLASH -2.5 Bet $71.25 return $132.53 (1 unit)

GOOD LUCK ALL

FESTOON

[Festoon]

what kind of backtested data do you have on your confidence? Books love to play against confident guys, they tend to bet more and their faith lasts longer. you know I looked at some book data and they usually make more total dollars at the end on a person who starts out winning than they do on a guy who just hits at par

Of course they do...I made all the same mistakes in the past, over and over again (INSANITY)… I'm much more disciplined now and for a change I feel like I'm in CONTROL and not the drug...(GAMBLING)

[Festoon]

An example...in the past I used to bet $1000's on the Super bowl...though I loved that 2-team tease... I only played a simple $75 for fun...would be nice to sit down over a couple pints and talk strategies...but here...it takes up to much time and is distracting. But, I appreciate your opinions and respect them.

[Festoon]

Certainly can't say its not getting frustrating, trying different things to get over that hump. Stand by the pick...unfortunately, Bryant who ranks #210 in 3pt% at 22%...and then go on a tear today shooting 45% 10-22 for the game... including 78% in the 2nd half going 7-9...must have felt like they were shooting at a hoola hoop. Move on and keep grinding, it will come.

**Gonna change up the unit size in an attempt to get er going**.

[Festoon]

PLAY #1: BET #2...

RADFORD HIGHLANDERS .5.5 -114 Bet $50 return $94.50

[Festoon]

UPDATE:

START DATE DEC 28th - JANUARY 21st (26days): 49 PLAYS (including Radford)
RECORD 22W-24L-3P (49 plays)ORIGINAL ACCOUNT: $1000...CURRENT ACCOUNT: $1064.50 ( including Radford)...WITHDRAW 1- $1000
ANTE $75: (+15.5 units)
ANTE $50: (-1)
DOLLARS RISKED 49 PLAYS: $7405.68

[Festoon]

ARKANSAS AT PINE BLUFF GOLDEN LIONS -4 -115 Bet $50 return $93.50