Can a poker strategy work in sports gaming

[danshan11]

if you
go 10-10 games at 50 you are down 100
go 10-10 at 100 you are down 200
go 10-10 at 250 you are down 500

eventually all those stake amounts even out. what do you perceive as your edge?

[Festoon]

sweep brings up a great point

I'm not a kid... I can handle any type of criticism...thank you for the reply

[sweep]

To any member that read's this thread, am I counting unit's correctly? If I have made a mistake please let me know. If not... to the folks who think I'm some kind of moron. Think about this..." from the start...if I were playing 1 unit per play...I would need to have some kind of record to gain +26 with 29 plays...It makes me think I'm doing something right. Any comment's would be appreciated. I'm honestly not trying to come across as some kind of smart ass.

my 4 year old bonsai tree has better math skills than you, like i said Looney Toon.get a new hobby. maybe Shoots N' Ladders or Connect Four

[scot4]

can I have your people that go 5-5 and are down a 1000.

[danshan11]

what you are doing now is something like this
NOW
$50 bet 10-10
$150 bets 6-3
$300 bets 2-1
EVENTUALLY
$50 bet 100-100
$150 bets 60-60
$300 bets 20-20

or whatever but eventually those will all even out to the line unless you have some sort of edge.
I read some of the things you ear marked as important in some of your write ups and to be honest I would guess 99.99% of those things are either irrelevant or in the line already, where is your edge?

[Festoon]

can I have your people that go 5-5 and are down a 1000.

Sure it cost them $11,000 to win $10000...net loss $1000

[reigle9]

I'm not a kid... I can handle any type of criticism...thank you for the reply

every thought that you have sucks

consider a different head

[Festoon]

what you are doing now is something like this
NOW
$50 bet 10-1
$150 bets 6-3
$300 bets 2-1
EVENTUALLY
$50 bet 100-100
$150 bets 60-60
$300 bets 20-20

or whatever but eventually those will all even out to the line unless you have some sort of edge.
I read some of the things you ear marked as important in some of your write ups and to be honest I would guess 99.99% of those things are either irrelevant or in the line already, where is your edge?

LOL...your getting warmer

[Festoon]

Gonna have some fun with this, since I have no idea what these Bet Points are all about...and they really don't interest me. If someone could tell me how to transfer them. 34 Bet Points to the winner Saying that, I am going to ask a question, using a poker analogy that best describes a bad poker player and a bad sports gambler...Question.. "If the bad sports gambler is called a CHASER! What is the term you would best describe a bad POKER PLAYER. First right answer gets the 34 Bet Points...

[scot4]

was joking. would love to find players that are that even and I just collect juice.

[scot4]

sounds like u enjoy the way u go about it ,have a plan that suits you, and more importantly isnt going to break u. enjoy and wish u the best.

[WvGambler]

Festoon, send nudes. Tasteful Nudes

Jesus Cristo, Festoon! I specifically said TASTEFUL nudes. Holy Moley....I’ve never seen a guy get his own nose that close to his turd cutter before.

[Festoon]

every thought that you have sucks

consider a different head

I figure there are a lot more sensible people on this forum than not

[Festoon]

sounds like u enjoy the way u go about it ,have a plan that suits you, and more importantly isnt going to break u. enjoy and wish u the best.

Thank you

[danshan11]

LOL...your getting warmer

I dont understand your reply?

[Festoon]

Jesus Cristo, Festoon! I specifically said TASTEFUL nudes. Holy Moley....I’ve never seen a guy get his own nose that close to his turd cutter before.

LOL...you got me there...not even sure how to reply to that one

[Regul8er]

Tilt?

[sweep]

Whats the play tonight Toon Town

[Festoon]

I dont understand your reply?

The theory or technique you described is very close to what I do. The fact is I look at my play's and win's different than most. When I get on a roll...I only look at it as HOUSE MONEY...the ANTE and the few bucks during the STREAK that I take out, give me CHANCES to start again. I used to be a little more greedy you could say. I now consider 6 straight the magic number. Each hand I'm trying to build the pot bigger. I've been trying to perfect this the best I can.. its always evolving and changing to make it work better. More stat's...digging deeper into the particular play.

[Festoon]

Tilt?

Congrats Reg...and thank you for replying...the answer is TILT! Just for that I am going to send you an extra 100...so a total of 134... I will try to find out how to transfer them...unless you know how?

[Festoon]

Whats the play tonight Toon Town

I'm working on it sweep...In previous threads I've always mentioned I have no LOCKS or GUARANTEES...there is no such thing. However, you can be assured, to me I'm going into the HAND with A-K suited or a HIGH PP.

[Festoon]

if you
go 10-10 games at 50 you are down 100
go 10-10 at 100 you are down 200
go 10-10 at 250 you are down 500

eventually all those stake amounts even out. what do you perceive as your edge?

That's actually a really good question, I could go on for awhile. To keep it brief and not go down that long boring path. The only easy way to describe it...as I'm taking full advantage of the HOT STREAK...to do that you have to minimize the number of plays. I see guys that pick...shit 25-30-35 plays on a Saturday it's impossible and to overwhelming. I get it! Action is what we all crave...but if I want to be successful, I have slow down, stay in my lane and play one hand at a time and focus on the next one win or lose. I learned that the hard way, believe me.

[Festoon]

was joking. would love to find players that are that even and I just collect juice.

Call that the casino or your friendly neighborhood bookie. They love those types to...BTW most are under .500

[Festoon]

I might as well get this off my chest too...A couple things, yesterday when I first posted this thread, I did it at 5am, I was hung over and hadn't slept I was still half in the bag. I wrote this long stupid ass thread, which was full of deceiving numbers. It wasn't my intent, I must have pressed post quickly by mistake without proof reading. I fell asleep on the couch and woke up, opened the thread and was grilled like I was some stupid fuk! When I read it, well...if I were them I would have said the same thing's. I APOLOGIZED to anyone that had read it. I made some edit's and corrected all the deficiencies. I made 1 mistake like that in the past and it almost cost me my job. I didn't take the insult's personally, except for two individuals that have been rude and ignorant to me in the past. Will get to the other a little later.

[danshan11]

That's actually a really good question, I could go on for awhile. To keep it brief and not go down that long boring path. The only easy way to describe it...as I'm taking full advantage of the HOT STREAK...to do that you have to minimize the number of plays. I see guys that pick...shit 25-30-35 plays on a Saturday it's impossible and to overwhelming. I get it! Action is what we all crave...but if I want to be successful, I have slow down, stay in my lane and play one hand at a time and focus on the next one win or lose. I learned that the hard way, believe me.

hot streak is not a long term betting strategy. Minimizing plays is a smart thing to do when you have no edge, if you have an edge you want to bet as much as possible to overcome variance.

[jose21_us]

Congrats Reg...and thank you for replying...the answer is TILT! Just for that I am going to send you an extra 100...so a total of 134... I will try to find out how to transfer them...unless you know how?

Toon get serious and become pro. Too transfer that many points will take 67 days...

[Festoon]

Toon get serious and become pro. Too transfer that many points will take 67 days...

I will note that Jose and thanks...seriously these points mean nothing to me...maybe to someone else... I am a man of my word and I will keep it...so to REG...the points will be coming

[Festoon]

hot streak is not a long term betting strategy. Minimizing plays is a smart thing to do when you have no edge, if you have an edge you want to bet as much as possible to overcome variance.

You sound like a smart guy Dan...when I get a chance I will get into my second point and the REAL thing I have to get off my chest. Before everyone thinks I am a real LOON! which by the sounds of they already do Maybe you will believe maybe not... but you might under stand the perspective of my theory. Yes I'm starting to feel beat up!

[WvGambler]

( whispers to everyone BUT festoon)

Guys, I think this festoon character is a little squirrelly. Let’s all agree to keep a close eye on him.

[Festoon]

Alrighty lets get to the point...It was never my intent on making this Thread and making myself look like a crazed Poker Play that thinks he's hot shit. I was never trying to fool anyone...I'm not as stupid as obviously so many of you think. I have a passion and have been around gambling all my life.. I couldn't play anything without having some skin on it...What did I become good at???... Poker, Sports and the thoroughbred's in that order. SO, PLEASE KEEP AN OPEN MIND TO THE REST of this post
I'm not saying that playing poker can make you a good Sports Gambler. That's not the gist of what I'm attempting to do... I wanted my own version, my own technique and my own system. I've been working on this for years trying to perfect it the as best I can, it's always changing and evolving.
Having gambled on everything...it just so happens that POKER is the best analogy that fit's this system for ME, when I get on a streak of great cards. If you really think about it for a second...keep an open mind..it makes a little sense.
I may be in a position that many of you are not, I don't know and don't really care. For me it's not all about unit's and star play's and whatever else. It's about raising the pot...just like a maniac in Poker. I'm trying to take advantage of the card frenzy or HOT STREAK. I won't get into all the other B.S... I already have.
Though I've read this site for years, I found it to be very informative, despite some bad people here. I really never wanted to join, but I thought WTF...why not test the system here. Mistake? so far so good.
I'm very superstitious and honestly didn't want to jinx myself with plays. A huge factor for me before making the decision to do this. It actually adds a little more excitement for me, it gives me a little more motivation to make the right play and find any edge I can.
The goal is six straight, yes believe me I know...it's not easy. But... get to 2nd win and pulling my ANTE out, it's now become HOUSE MONEY . Having said that I will gladly share with anyone that is interested how I break things down and make my plays and maximize the hot streak. You may see that playing this type of strategy, reminds me so much of Poker if you play.
There are no guarantee's and no lock's, however you can be assured I've looked at everything. Starting with the opening lines the night before and following them all day until it's time to lock it in. I have approx. eight categories or stats that I capp. rated 1 thru 8. I tend to lay off the top 5-6 conferences for my own reason's. I have all conferences rated 1-32 and each team ranked as well, my own ranking system. One being the best and down the line to the worst.
My wife hates me being on here, but she has accepted it. I honestly don't care one way or the other, it just adds more meat to the bone. Having said that...I'm contemplating of backing out and spending more time doing something I'd rather do with my time. Concentrate helping my buddies that appreciate it.. But, I will see how it goes. Whether you think I'm to sensitive or not there are a lot of people on here that are rude and ignorant that are set in their system and not ready for change or an open mind..
."How is your system working out for you".

PS Gambler...sorry for another long boring story!

[WvGambler]

[danshan11]

nice piece you wrote there but its more narrative and not bones. People serious about this business talk about the bones not the flash. Edge is not a feeling, its an actual edge.
the line moves your direction at a high% like 75% of the time or more that is an edge OR
you have a long term win% over 1000s of games that you truly have gotten past the point of SB to an extent YOU are happy with

you keep avoiding my point of you look good now because
the $50 bets are 8-8 and the $250 bets are 6-2 but if you truly do not have an edge you have to understand that will regress back. your crazy comment about spending more to get more ( bet on super faves lay 10000 to make 11000) in a sense is true with fave longshot bias but usually not enough to overcome the margin. So that comment is crazy and sure short term it seems simple how many -900 favorites lose and guess what it is 10% just like it should be and you still just lose the margin.
look here is a baseball history of big faves

151-57 (2.32, 72.6%) avg line: -340.6 / 289.6 on / against: -$3,975 / +$970 ROI: -5.6% / +4.7%

[Festoon]

nice piece you wrote there but its more narrative and not bones. People serious about this business talk about the bones not the flash. Edge is not a feeling, its an actual edge.
the line moves your direction at a high% like 75% of the time or more that is an edge OR
you have a long term win% over 1000s of games that you truly have gotten past the point of SB to an extent YOU are happy with

you keep avoiding my point of you look good now because
the $50 bets are 8-8 and the $250 bets are 6-2 but if you truly do not have an edge you have to understand that will regress back. your crazy comment about spending more to get more ( bet on super faves lay 10000 to make 11000) in a sense is true with fave longshot bias but usually not enough to overcome the margin. So that comment is crazy and sure short term it seems simple how many -900 favorites lose and guess what it is 10% just like it should be and you still just lose the margin.
look here is a baseball history of big faves

151-57 (2.32, 72.6%) avg line: -340.6 / 289.6 on / against: -$3,975 / +$970 ROI: -5.6% / +4.7%

Thanks Dan I appreciate your opinion and respect it and thanks for the attachment. Couple things first, the comment I made on the $11000-$10000 was just a reply to his question?. he asked how does someone lose $1000 going 5 for 5 that's all... It's not my strategy at all... My point is minimizing COLD STREAKS and maximizing HOT STREAKS. Case in point 8-8 on 1 unit play, but better with larger wagers. The bones you say, I know exactly where you're coming from on that, but...I'm not quite sure if I want to mention that here for reasons you may not understand. So for now I would rather keep it a secret, I really hope you understand. I may at some point, if enough people are interested. For many, I've looked like a clown I guess and I can handle that. I believe in myself and what I do to break down a game...I've done enough work that I'm confident in any play I make. Like I said before...any play that I make I feel like I'm holding a top hand and much like Poker I can win 5-6 hands or plays in a row at anytime. I kept track of Bet Wagers for a reason and will continue to post. That might help you later to understand the METHOD to my MADNESS.

[WvGambler]

Give us a winner here, pal.

[scot4]

we always called those players guppies. they will play(eat) anything.